Covid-19 closer to "home" than I'd anticipated...

[eeyoreandtink]

Covid 19 mortality rate as of now, is thought to be higher than any strain of the flu according to scientists.

Yes, but most of that data is based on cases in China, where medical care is substandard and reporting is highly likely to be inaccurate. Those numbers are going to go down in countries where everyone has access to healthcare. If you look at subgroups by age the current numbers are lower than average flu numbers for those under 30, about the same 30-50, and only exceeds flu in those over 50. 50-60 only sees a slight increase.

 

[tinkerdorabelle]

...

 

[cabanafrau]

I worked in vaccine development as part of my undergraduate research project. I understand the process. No one said a vaccine is around the corner, but we do have a leg up on the development of this one because we know so much about other corona viruses and their mechanisms. I have read at least 2 reports that they are ready to start preliminary testing. This one may not take a full year because a good portion of the work is already done.

There's been a lot of discussion about this year's flu vaccine not providing a great match with the prevalent strains this year. While there may be work already done on various corona viruses, it bears remembering that 19 is a novel virus and vaccines in the development pipeline are unlikely to be a good enough match to be very effective.

 

[pryncess527]

There are several schools and universities closing without a single reported case among students or staff or anyone at the school under quarantine. The decision is definitely influenced by the media. The PR departments of those schools are saying "There is a media frenzy right now better to do something and not need to than to appear like we didn't react swiftly enough". They wouldn't be making such reactionary decisions without the constant media blitz about this.

They are probably reacting more to Facebook induced panic and pressure than actual news media sourced stories, at least that seems to be the case from what I’ve seen.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

They are probably reacting more to Facebook induced panic and pressure than actual news media sourced stories, at least that seems to be the case from what I’ve seen.

That may very well be the case as well, but I think the news media is fueling the facebook panic, at least to some extent.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Where is your data on this and where is it from, would like to read it. The guy that spread it by where I live where there is a HUGE outbreak is in critical condition, is in his 50s. So I think this is a real serious thing but for those not living in a large outbreak area I would be cautious though less concerned. I am very concerned where I live, has largest outbreak in country, all started by one guy going to a public event. They are not doing many mandatory quarantines and only just started really seriously closing some schools. Spreading very fast every day seeing new numbers jumping.

I am going to have to dig for it. it was a WHO breakdown that was part of a news story on my Facebook feed. I will see if I can backtrack to it and find a link.

eta:
not my original source but these are the numbers.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...n-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

 

[wvjules]

Do you (general) think that shcools and businesses are closing based on media, social media, etc? Don't you think that they do their own evaluations and decide based on the best available informaton they have at the time?

I work for a super large company. We have a dedicated PMO team that keeps up informed, lets us know they are in contact with CDC, WHO, local and state agencies, deep cleanings that are being done in offices, etc. If they implement work from home, do you think it based on media hype or the best available information they have from reliable sources?

Do you really think places that close or implement additional measures to try to keep the virus from spreading are basing decisions based on media?

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Do you (general) think that shcools and businesses are closing based on media, social media, etc? Don't you think that they do their own evaluations and decide based on the best available informaton they have at the time?

I work for a super large company. We have a dedicated PMO team that keeps up informed, lets us know they are in contact with CDC, WHO, local and state agencies, deep cleanings that are being done in offices, etc. If they implement work from home, do you think it based on media hype or the best available information they have from reliable sources?

Do you really think places that close or implement additional measures to try to keep the virus from spreading are basing decisions based on media?

I definitely think they are making decisions based on both the media and the court of public opinion rather than based on the facts. Many businesses live and die by PR, and their decisions are based on what is most likely to help their bottom line. Right now, public opinion says that doing something is better than doing nothing.

 

[Christine]

I'm a little "miffed" at my agency right now. They seem to not be "walking" the talk. We have a travel ban on now, yet a delegation of people left yesterday for a week long international meeting on the west coast.

We had 5 travelers return from Egypt over the weekend and they be-bopped into the office today, carpooling with a woman who has COPD and heart issues. After they came into the building containing 3,000 people and roamed around for several hours, the other employees got upset and they were finally sent home. They were all in the proximity of the Marine in Northern VA who is at Ft. Belvoir now in the hospital. The managers of these employees didn't think it was important (or just didn't think) to tell them to self-quarantine and not come in at all. Employees are just really angry today as many had exposures to them.

I've got a COOP meeting this afternoon on all of this and, if I get a chance, I'll be complaining loudly.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I'm a little "miffed" at my agency right now. They seem to not be "walking" the talk. We have a travel ban on now, yet a delegation of people left yesterday for a week long international meeting on the west coast.

We had 5 travelers return from Egypt over the weekend and they be-bopped into the office today, carpooling with a woman who has COPD and heart issues. After they came into the building containing 3,000 people and roamed around for several hours, the other employees got upset and they were finally sent home. They were all in the proximity of the Marine in Northern VA who is at Ft. Belvoir now in the hospital. The managers of these employees didn't think it was important (or just didn't think) to tell them to self-quarantine and not come in at all. Employees are just really angry today as many had exposures to them.

I've got a COOP meeting this afternoon on all of this and, if I get a chance, I'll be complaining loudly.

My company has allowed every employee to work with their manager to manage their personal risk. I get that not all companies can do that, but shame on those who can and choose not to.

 

[Christine]

My company has allowed every employee to work with their manager to manage their personal risk. I get that not all companies can do that, but shame on those who can and choose not to.

Yep, we are allowed also. This was just total incompetence and not thinking. As much as there is discussion on media hype and overreaction, there is a certain segment that is absolutely oblivious. To me, it was an absolute no brainer to have these employees self-isolate for 2 weeks. They are all telework able. They were in contact with a known carrier and had been in a hotspot as well as lots of travel.

 

[Wendy31]

I'm a little "miffed" at my agency right now. They seem to not be "walking" the talk. We have a travel ban on now, yet a delegation of people left yesterday for a week long international meeting on the west coast.

We had 5 travelers return from Egypt over the weekend and they be-bopped into the office today, carpooling with a woman who has COPD and heart issues. After they came into the building containing 3,000 people and roamed around for several hours, the other employees got upset and they were finally sent home. They were all in the proximity of the Marine in Northern VA who is at Ft. Belvoir now in the hospital. The managers of these employees didn't think it was important (or just didn't think) to tell them to self-quarantine and not come in at all. Employees are just really angry today as many had exposures to them.

I've got a COOP meeting this afternoon on all of this and, if I get a chance, I'll be complaining loudly.

I’d probably be upset too.

Did the woman who has COPD & heart issues w/ whom they carpooled know they had recently returned from Egypt & that they’d been in proximity to someone who has the virus? If she knew, why didn’t she arrange other transportation?

 

[3threebabies]

My company has allowed every employee to work with their manager to manage their personal risk. I get that not all companies can do that, but shame on those who can and choose not to.

Delurking...To this I wholeheartedly agree. There are a lot of companies and small businesses that cannot accommodate due to market factors, financial standing, frontline or essential services, etc. Those companies who are able to accommodate should.

ETA. Though I do not currently work, my previous jobs would not have been able to accommodate nor would have beyond government mandates. Not government recommendations. Government mandate. DH works in an industry that will not choose to close but whose parent company could provide some help for lost wages...we are doubtful they would do much.

 

[Christine]

I’d probably be upset too.

Did the woman who has COPD & heart issues w/ whom they carpooled know they had recently returned from Egypt & that they’d been in proximity to someone who has the virus? If she knew, why didn’t she arrange other transportation?

Yes, she knew they had been to Egypt but not that they had been around anyone. Why didn't she arrange other transportation? Ignorance. She has also been sent home.

 

[ShirikiUtundu]

The "panic" is that you have to pay attention to the epidemiology and potential for a pandemic. You have to look at the case-fatality rate, which is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases (multiplied by 100, to give a percent). Mortality rate is the number of deaths over the total population (once again X 100).
For example, 40 deaths among 4,000 cases is the CFR of 1.0%. If the population was 4 million, that’s a MR of 1 per 100,000 or 0.01%. Here is a list of the case-fatality rates for some more-commonly known viruses/infections:

Seasonal flu: CFR 0.1–0.2%
1918 flu: CFR 2.5%
SARS: CFR 10–11%
MERS: CFR 34%
EBOLA: CFR 25–95%
Rabies: CFR 100%
Thus far, COVID19 appears to be 2–3%, similar to the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed the most people during a single outbreak (pandemic) in history.

The R0 ("R-naught") is also of concern. It is basically the virus's reproductive ability and describes how many people one infected person will infect. Covid-19 seems to have an R0 of between 1.2-4, meaning that 5 infected people will infect somewhere between 6 and 20 people. For comparison, SARS had an R0 of between 2 to 5.

Basically, if COVID19 spreads globally, it could equal or exceed the deaths due to the 1918 influenza, and THAT's what all the hype is about.

(Sources: https://www.popsci.com/story/health/how-diseases-spread/
and https://vitals.lifehacker.com/what-is-the-coronaviruss-r0-and-why-does-it-matter-1841264885)

I'm supposed to be grading lab reports... can you see why I'm called the Queen of Procrastination?

CFR is not a static number, especially while in the midst of an outbreak. It cannot be fully assessed until aggregate data is available. There are way too many factors which affect the CFR including location and demographics of the infected population.

 

[sndral]

This just isn't accurate, and is unnecessarily alarmist. We are seeing the death rate with this dropping as it spreads to more developed countries with better healthcare. Spanish flu did what it did because at the time, low income families had no access to health care, and there was very little if anything that could be done for anyone infected. The numbers on this are just estimates at this point too because we cannot count on the data coming out of China.

I would be very interested in a source for this claim as it’s being reported that outcomes in Italy (which I assume would be classified as a ‘more developed country’) are worse than they were in China. https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-...lds-highest-death-rate-from-virus-11583785086
One concern is that if our numbers increase dramatically because our containment effort was too little, too late, our healthcare system will be overwhelmed, thus if you need hospital care and can’t get it because all the beds are full, then you are in no different a position than low income families were during the Spanish flu.

I worked in vaccine development as part of my undergraduate research project. I understand the process. No one said a vaccine is around the corner, but we do have a leg up on the development of this one because we know so much about other corona viruses and their mechanisms. I have read at least 2 reports that they are ready to start preliminary testing. This one may not take a full year because a good portion of the work is already done.

Let us hope the reports you read are accurate. Given the debacle of the USA’s inability to test for this virus as well as the outright lies from top officials about how many tests are actually available, I have zero confidence in any ‘claims’ on an ETA for a vaccine.
I haven’t seen any panic or frenzy, but I have seen those who should be leading instead obfuscating, downplaying, & misleading. IMO honest & fact based guidance is more helpful in quelling overreaction than behaving like an ostrich with it’s head in the sand & pretending there’s no problem or that things are better than they are.
It is absurd to claim that it’s ‘just like the flu’ - when the science we do have tells us its’ transmission rate and mortality rate are much higher than the flu. You don’t have to be a mathematician to understand what exponential growth means. You don’t have to be an epidemiologist to understand that comparing today’s flu numbers to tomorrow’s covid-19 numbers isn’t helpful because we don’t know how widespread covid-19 will become v. the flu, nor do we know how lethal covid-19 will be in a population with no inherent immunity, no protection via vaccination, and no known treatment protocol v. the flu.
The failure to test has kept our official numbers low, but it may have also significantly hampered our ability to contain and now mitigate the spread of covid-19. It has certainly made it difficult for average people to make wise choices IMO.

 

[wgeo]

Yeah I'd also like to see where the information is coming from that the death rate is improving in developed countries. Because Italy just upped their death total to 631 out of 10149 cases. That doesn't seem like a rate that is dropping to me. It's actually over 5% unless I am misunderstanding how they calculate these things.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

It is absurd to claim that it’s ‘just like the flu’ - when the science we do have tells us its’ transmission rate and mortality rate are much higher than the flu. You don’t have to be a mathematician to understand what exponential growth means. You don’t have to be an epidemiologist to understand that comparing today’s flu numbers to tomorrow’s covid-19 numbers isn’t helpful because we don’t know how widespread covid-19 will become v. the flu, nor do we know how lethal covid-19 will be in a population with no inherent immunity, no protection via vaccination, and no known treatment protocol v. the flu.

That's the thing, the science is just NOT telling us that, the media is. The science is telling us that this is a slightly more deadly respiratory virus that is slightly more easily transmitted, nothing more. It is like the flu, a respiratory virus. It is much less deadly that SARS or MERS, which didn't cause this kind of panic. MERS had a death rate of almost 30%. How much did we hear about it? H1N1 was even more widespread than this and effected a broader spectrum of the population, did everyone panic to this level with that? Nope, and scientists were saying all the same things about it they are saying about this virus. What is different about this? Media coverage plain and simple.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Yeah I'd also like to see where the information is coming from that the death rate is improving in developed countries. Because Italy just upped their death total to 631 out of 10149 cases. That doesn't seem like a rate that is dropping to me. It's actually over 5% unless I am misunderstanding how they calculate these things.

Take a look at the numbers out of South Korea. They are going the opposite way. They are only looking at about 1-1.5% and dropping.

 

[ronandannette]

We now know that an attendee at CPAC last week is positive for coronavirus, and a few senators have self-quarantined. I have a student who was at CPAC last week. While I suspect that Ted Cruz rubs different elbows than my student, hahaha, this is still a little worry in the back of my mind, especially as I got up with a sore throat and heavy chest. What do you think- time to worry?

I think there are millions and millions of people with the exact same thing on their mind today, whether or not they are aware of having even a vague chance of contact. I've heard so much on social media that points out just how uninformed many are of the symptoms of Covid. It has a very specific and limited set of identified symptoms; there's no report of it causing sniffles, sneezing, sinus congestion, weepy eyes, sore throat, body aches or any type of gastro-intestinal effects. A lady I heard on a radio talk show yesterday insisted it caused bloody diarrhea, which is why everybody is buying toilet paper. Seriously. Here's what the CDC has to say and based on this, leebee, you can rest a little easier:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html