coronavirus

[Coffee66]

Hopefully, CDC and SF DPH have learned from the cruise ship incident in Japan. At least, they’ve taken the step of not allowing it to dock until all ~2,500 individuals are tested and a process to treat or quarantine is in place.

I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer or the not-fun guy at the party, but human psychology will persist for a while since this is an unknown pathogen. When you think of consumers, you really have to think broadly outside your bubble. Consumers get caught up with like-minded peers. That means markets have a long way to go. We’re just in correction territory.

I’ve been buying puts on Disney as speculation and hedging. For the short term, I would hate to be holding DIS in shares only if any hint or rumor of that chance occurring.

Edit: Not so much of an impact to us relatively. But, don’t look away from what’s happening in Africa, and especially Iran. Those are places with lesser health services and unstable governments.

Now a lawyer ? Now that California declared a state of emergency can Disneyland guests now cancel within the 30 day window who have no insurance and get a full refund?

 

[choirfarm]

All it will take is a couple of CMs to get it and the parks will shut down for a few weeks. They will not have a choice.

 

[Coffee66]

All it will take is a couple of CMs to get it and the parks will shut down for a few weeks. They will not have a choice.

It brings new meaning to Mr. Toads wild ride.

 

[godisney14]

Here is a memo from Sequoia Capital today. They sent something similar back in 2008.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/seq...anies-about-coronavirus-economic-fallout.html

Many companies have already warned about upcoming quarters. But, I doubt that’s going to soften the blow that much when the actual earnings and forecasts start to come out soon.

 

[Spridell]

All it will take is a couple of CMs to get it and the parks will shut down for a few weeks. They will not have a choice.

People are throwing around "parks closing down" like it is nothing. Really sit down and think about that for a second. 40,000 hotel rooms being completely shutdown, 62,000 people being told you have no jobs for the next couple of weeks. Hundreds of nearby stores and hotels being completely shut down with their employees also being told no work for a couple of weeks. EXTREMELY unlikely of a complete shutdown.

CM member diagnosed, the people that that CM has come in contact with LONG gone by now. They are in Texas, wisconsin, florida, Utah, NY, CA etc...... Long gone from Disney World. Shutting the Parks down will do NOTHING.

It is NOT going to happen. When the CDC comes out and says everyone stay in your homes, THAT is when Disney World shuts down.

 

[choirfarm]

People are throwing around "parks closing down" like it is nothing. Really sit down and think about that for a second. 40,000 hotel rooms being completely shutdown, 62,000 people being told you have no jobs for the next couple of weeks. Hundreds of nearby stores and hotels being completely shut down with their employees also being told no work for a couple of weeks. EXTREMELY unlikely of a complete shutdown.

CM member diagnosed, the people that that CM has come in contact with LONG gone by now. They are in Texas, wisconsin, florida, Utah, NY, CA etc...... Long gone from Disney World. Shutting the Parks down will do NOTHING.

They are cancelling tons of events right now. It has effected tons of people. Our economy will tank. Just watch. If a cast member is diagnosed they will have no choice. They are closing schools when a relative of a student has it. Just wait and see.

 

[choirfarm]

A school I know of just cancelled their band trip to wdw

 

[godisney14]

It is NOT going to happen. When the CDC comes out and says everyone stay in your homes, THAT is when Disney World shuts down.

Or, when the operating revenue runs in the red. Those cast members are not salaried.

Right now is not the time to invest in businesses that rely on foot traffic. Fortunately, it’s not completely bad for Disney as only a quarter of the rev comes from parks.

 

[Spridell]

They are cancelling tons of events right now. It has effected tons of people. Our economy will tank. Just watch. If a cast member is diagnosed they will have no choice. They are closing schools when a relative of a student has it. Just wait and see.

You have your opinion. That is fine. I have mine. Just saying, I would not be betting on DW closing anytime soon.

A school I know of just cancelled their band trip to wdw

A band trip being cancelled vs 60,000 people and a small city ceasing to exist. Pretty big difference.

 

[Spridell]

Or, when the operating revenue runs in the red. Those cast members are not salaried.

With the crowds that are happening now at DW I dont see any slowing down anytime soon. Remember there will always be those people that will go on their vacations NO MATTER WHAT. If a place is open people will be there.

 

[ckb_nc]

I do think WDW will see an attendance hit; I was there 6 months after 9/11 and it was a ghost town. I remember the 4 for 7 deal we took advantage of too (get 7 days for the price of 4). Disney has some huge levers to pull, truly massive.

The first hit will be the external hotels and vendors. But its coming - the airlines are signaling a big downturn. Vegas is going to really suffer too. Frankly with the long incubation period the idea of containment at this point is out the window.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Since 1955 Disney Parks in the USA have had unscheduled closures for full days approximately 10 times (Disneyland 3*, Disney World 7), none of which were for outbreaks (such as H2N2 or the H1N1). For this virus outbreak to close Disneyland or Disney World for a prolonged period of time it would have to take a lot more than a few cases with CMs.

 

[Spridell]

Since 1955 Disney Parks in the USA have had unscheduled closures for full days approximately 10 times (Disneyland 3*, Disney World 7), none of which were for outbreaks (such as H2N2 or the H1N1). For this virus outbreak to close Disneyland or Disney World for a prolonged period of time it would have to take a lot more than a few cases with CMs.

And during those 10 times NONE had the hotels closing.

For FULL SHUTDOWN it would take something none of us want to see happen.

 

[godisney14]

Frankly with the long incubation period the idea of containment at this point is out the window.

That horse has left the barn a long time ago. Once you have a couple pockets of outbreaks with confirmed community transmission, containment on a local scale is impossible.

Just today, Santa Clara County, where Silicon Valley is located, announced 50% increase (7 new cases) of community acquired transmission with unknown source. The county is recommending all large gatherings to stop for now, including sports games (though, the Sharks hockey game seems to still happen).
Let’s see whether CA Great America (a Cedar Fairs Park amusement park) delays it’s beginning of the season opening, which is planned to happen in 2 weeks.

 

[Haley R]

We went to Epcot and HS today. Crowds seemed very normal for this time of year. No one seemed concerned about the virus. I did notice some hand soap dispensers out of soap. Almost every bathroom I went in had a cm cleaning though.

 

[godisney14]

And during those 10 times NONE had the hotels closing.

For FULL SHUTDOWN it would take something none of us want to see happen.

I didn’t follow what happened at that time. But, would people now still take their weeklong trip to a Disney resort if the parks are closed? Honest question out of curiosity.

 

[Spridell]

Not apple to apple comparison as this is an infectious disease.
I didn’t follow what happened at that time. But, would people now still take their weeklong trip to a Disney resort if the parks are closed? Honest question out of curiosity.

In this situation if parks closed resorts would have to close also. It would have to be all or nothing. Would make no sense to close just the parks and not resorts.

Which is why I think parks will never close.

 

[ckb_nc]

Not apple to apple comparison as this is an infectious disease.
I didn’t follow what happened at that time. But, would people now still take their weeklong trip to a Disney resort if the parks are closed? Honest question out of curiosity.

No - most if not all people will not go to Disney just for the resorts for a week. I have gone for a weekend and done nothing but resorts. I can stay at some very nice beach side resorts for the same or less money

 

[HokieRaven5]

Not apple to apple comparison as this is an infectious disease.
I didn’t follow what happened at that time. But, would people now still take their weeklong trip to a Disney resort if the parks are closed? Honest question out of curiosity.

But that's why in my post I mentioned that of their 10 closures none were due to the outbreak of an infectious disease.

H2N2 had an outbreak in 1957-58. Disneyland never had an unscheduled closure.

2009 H1N1 was declared a national emergency and the parks never closed due to those illnesses.

I'm not saying it's unlikely they close but it's going to take a lot more than 300 cases in the US to make them close.

 

[choirfarm]

I'm not saying it's unlikely they close but it's going to take a lot more than 300 cases in the US to make them close.
[/QUOTE

It will take a cast member getting it. Until then you are probably right. But if they get it they will be forced to close for at least a few days and quaremtine any and all cast members that had any contact.