coronavirus

[bagpiper]

last friday about 600 cases in Italy today is 4600 !!!!

 

[osufeth24]

Just got an email from my work that our insurance will waive any fee/co-pay for testing realted to the corona virus

 

[choirfarm]

last friday about 600 cases in Italy today is 4600 !!!!

That is because of increased testing. We haven't/don't have true numbers. Probably 15,000 or more have it in the US. We just don't have tests or they are asymptomatic.

 

[bagpiper]

But the assumption that it's going to continue to double every 3 days is also incorrect. My point is if we are making statements that this virus is capable of doubling its infected every 3 days, we could presume that there should be more along the lines of over 3 Million cases of this right now. Now there's variability to that estimate obviously but when we're currently at 101,000 reported cases, that's a significant disparity right now.

Dont believe at Chinas numbers - they will under report their millions of citizens that were quarantined

last friday about 600 cases in Italy today is 4600 !!!! and thats tested patients

 

[Coffee66]

L

It is clear that people on this thread are on completely different ends of the spectrum.

One side thinks the other side is overreacting and fear mongering, while the other side thinks the other is just blowing this whole thing off and not giving it proper respect.

Getting on a cruise ship no matter who runs it is nuts. Think about the cruise ship off the coast of California.

 

[Haley R]

Not my pic (from another site)

But I did see it on Wed

I wasn’t saying I doubted you I was just saying what I noticed yesterday. They possibly aren’t being very consistent with it between CMs

 

[dawnball]

South Korea is the closest analog to the US with a sizable infected population. They are seeing a death rate of 0.5% and dropping in those who know they are infected. Lower than SARS, MERS, or H1N1 at this stage.

You seem to be conflating IFR and CFR here. South Korea testing is getting a number more like IFR (infection fatality rate), most of the other numbers discussed here have been been CFR (case fatality rate). In addition, South Korea has massively increased testing in a short period of time, which means that the disease hasn't run its course in the vast majority of cases. You can't a valid numerator, because you don't know how many of the infected will eventually recover or die. You can't get a useful CFR in the US yet either, for exactly the same reason.

 

[Lashed34]

I think people need to just take in some air and relax a little, because when all is said and done, there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to influence this matter.

As numbers of people infected grow worldwide so do the cries from the people - close theatres, close sports events etc.

If WDW/URO need to close for a few days then it will not be the end of the world - stopping this virus is the important issue, not getting into a theme park.

At the moment, anyone who thinks this corona virus isn't already in Florida is kidding themselves (unfortunately).

 

[eeyoreandtink]

You seem to be conflating IFR and CFR here. South Korea testing is getting a number more like IFR (infection fatality rate), most of the other numbers discussed here have been been CFR (case fatality rate). In addition, South Korea has massively increased testing in a short period of time, which means that the disease hasn't run its course in the vast majority of cases. You can't a valid numerator, because you don't know how many of the infected will eventually recover or die. You can't get a useful CFR in the US yet either, for exactly the same reason.

What are you defining as the difference between IFR and CFR?

 

[Amylc]

I always remember this line from a business management book I’ve read a long time ago in school: “If two people always agree on everything, then one is dispensable.”



Flu shots are all based on prediction and percentages. Just like any other medicine, and anything in science in general, nothing is 100% positive to work for 100% of the population. Medical tests have sensitivity and specificity ratings.
By getting a flu vaccine shot, you’re increasing the chances of being symptom free.

I am just saying this panic is not going to solve anything its making things way worse , so you are gonna get sick even with vaccines or going to work school its just life

 

[Spridell]

I think people need to just take in some air and relax a little, because when all is said and done, there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to influence this matter.

As numbers of people infected grow worldwide so do the cries from the people - close theatres, close sports events etc.

If WDW/URO need to close for a few days then it will not be the end of the world - stopping this virus is the important issue, not getting into a theme park.

At the moment, anyone who thinks this corona virus isn't already in Florida is kidding themselves (unfortunately).

I would go as far as to say its very likely there are people in WDW who are infected or have been in contact with someone who has been.

I would go even further and say that that's likely in more places than everyone thinks. Malls, movies, stores etc....

 

[Lashed34]

I would go as far as to say its very likely there are people in WDW who are infected or have been in contact with someone who has been.

I would go even further and say that that's likely in more places than everyone thinks. Malls, movies, stores etc....

Absolutely and if closing the parks, having sporting events without spectators etc leads to the reduction of the spreading then it will happen - it has to, otherwise this thing will go the way of the 1911 flu epidemic.

Just think of 1 plane heading to Florida with over 300 people on it and 1 of those passengers infected or carrying it...now multiply those flights, those airline staff, those passengers...etc etc etc.

Corona virus will thrive in lots of places, but in tourist resorts and destinations it will swarm.

People need to think about this - parks = rides = handbars - spreading virus, and that's just 1 aspect of a park.

 

[JodyLynC]

Remember the old saying "Hope for the best. Plan for the worst." I think if the virus ends up not being as bad as initially feared, it will be because people listened and took precautions.

 

[Lashed34]

Remember the old saying "Hope for the best. Plan for the worst." I think if the virus ends up not being as bad as initially feared, it will be because people listened and took precautions.

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case - more cases in more countries by the day.

What you say is absolutely true, BUT not every country is giving their citizens the information and help needed.

 

[Spridell]

I will tell you what I think we might see if it gets bad in Disney world, I can totally see them closing the parks early on some days to do complete sanitizing of the entire park.

I can see them doing that way before they even contemplate a complete shutdown.

 

[dawnball]

What are you defining as the difference between IFR and CFR?

IFR is the measurement of deceased / total infected (asymptomatic + symptomatic) versus CFR which is typically deceased / symptomatic cases. The distinction is complicated because different organizations/studies also define what constitutes infected or symptomatic cases differently.

Naive CFR might be a more precise term than IFR, depending on exactly what South Korea is using for testing criteria.

None of these are really good metrics for laypeople, though. It's easy to think that they provide a personal risk of death if you're diagnosed, and they really don't. Especially at this point in the analysis.

(edited for clarity)

 

[stephk1981]

We were at Epcot and HS yesterday and I didn’t see anyone sanitizing the touchpoints

Neither have we! Been here since last Friday, not once have I seen a CM sanitize a fingerprint scanner. We have been using Purell, ran out and bought more yesterday after getting off of FOP in AK. The whole week, I have only seen one person wearing a face mask in the parks too.

 

[Haley R]

Neither have we! Been here since last Friday, not once have I seen a CM sanitize a fingerprint scanner. We have been using Purell, ran out and bought more yesterday after getting off of FOP in AK. The whole week, I have only seen one person wearing a face mask in the parks too.

I guess they’re being pretty inconsistent about the sanitizing. We saw one person with a mask at Epcot yesterday. She looked like she wore it normally. It was a fancy designed one and she did look rather frail.

 

[leeniewdw]

Just think of 1 plane heading to Florida with over 300 people on it and 1 of those passengers infected or carrying it...now multiply those flights, those airline staff, those passengers...etc etc etc.

The state of NC just had a news conference (they reported their 2nd case thus far) and did a really nice job in talking about risk. I didn't write this down and I'm not looking up a transcript, but they talked about how if you live with someone who is diagnosed then you are high risk and should quarantine, if you spent time (and they talked about both the length of time and the proximity) with someone, then you were moderate risk, if you walk past someone in a store or library or airport then you were low risk. Again, I believe these were the examples used, but if not 100% accurate, you get the idea. They said the CDC defines these risk levels.

Then they were asked about air travel of one of these people (they had been in Italy in late Feb) and if they were following up. They explained that the CDC does that kind of follow up and they have very specific guidelines as to where you sat on the plane in proximity to the person as to if they'd follow up, etc. So it doesn't sound like if you were 1 of XXX people on a plan with someone who is found to be infected, that your risk is by definition high.

 

[Lashed34]

The state of NC just had a news conference (they reported their 2nd case thus far) and did a really nice job in talking about risk. I didn't write this down and I'm not looking up a transcript, but they talked about how if you live with someone who is diagnosed then you are high risk and should quarantine, if you spent time (and they talked about both the length of time and the proximity) with someone, then you were moderate risk, if you walk past someone in a store or library or airport then you were low risk. Again, I believe these were the examples used, but if not 100% accurate, you get the idea. They said the CDC defines these risk levels.

Then they were asked about air travel of one of these people (they had been in Italy in late Feb) and if they were following up. They explained that the CDC does that kind of follow up and they have very specific guidelines as to where you sat on the plane in proximity to the person as to if they'd follow up, etc. So it doesn't sound like if you were 1 of XXX people on a plan with someone who is found to be infected, that your risk is by definition high.

I suppose it depends all manner of things - how long the flight is, is the infected person/carrier walking around/sat in a row of 3/coughing etc etc but I'd imagine a 9 hour flight from Europe to the U.S would almost certainly mean someone with the virus will infect others.