Copper Creek Selling March 8

[skier_pete]

Its an interesting take on Copper Creek's mix of villas. I had not thought to look at the percentage of points that are allocated by accommodation type.

I duplicated your method and came up with a studio percentage of 11.58% for Copper Creek. I then looked at Bay Lake Tower's mix of villas using the same method:

133 studios with a minimum point value of 16
133 one-bedrooms with a minimum value of 39
148 two-bedrooms with a minimum value of 54
14 grand villas with a minimum value of 96

Using that method, BLT's percentage is 12.78%, not far off from Copper Creek's percentage of 11.58.

I have owned at BLT since 2009 and have booked studios almost every year. I've never had a problem getting a studio during the home resort booking period. Nor do I think other people have complained about the inability to book BLT studios during the home resort period as a general rule.

So, in my opinion, CCV's 11.58 % percentage of studios to total points would not seem to be an adverse indicator of future availability.

All a good point. I just think owners are more and more only able to afford enough points for a studio - but that may just be me. This certainly happened at VGF, and I estimate they have 16% of their points at studios. It is also a concern that 38% of the points are for cabins and grand villas. Better be some rich buyers at CCV. I just don't know that the appeal will be the same there.

 

[TheGecko]

Well I am out on this resort. Family of 5 requires me to always go two bedroom. Kind of disappointed they would not accommodate 5 for the 1BD.

With the high maintenance fees, I will be better off buying some more add on points at AKL or BLT.

I do think this will be one of the nicer overall DVC resorts when it is all said and done, but it just does not fit well with my personal circumstances.

 

[MouseOfCards]

We had reached out to our DVC sales contact a while back to let us know when new info came out. He reached out today with all the details, we reviewed, told him our decision, and he drew up the contract and set us up to close on March 8th. We should be getting our official (non resale, haha) membership card by March 9th, and be able to book starting on March 22nd for as early as July 17th.

Pretty excited about it. We even have Annual Passes purchased (but not redeemed yet) that we may be able to get some money back on with the membership card!

Very nice! Did they give you the prize for being the first buyer?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

That is crazy high. I wonder what is making them so high and how quickly the BRV MF will catch up to that.

No reason it will effect BRV dues. CCV is sharing the hotel expenses. BRV is a separate DVC and should not increase more than any other 2042 resort.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The cabins have point costs greater than the lake view GVs at BLT and the GV's have point costs just under the Theme Park view GV's at BLT. Also, the cabins sleep 8, but four of those sleeping spaces appear to be in the living room (pull-out couch, sleeper chair and apparently a murphy bed). The master has the king but the second bedroom has only a queen and is too small for another bed (more like a Treehouse room).

The CCV declarations cite to a First Amendment to the Common Facilities Agreement. The Common Facilities Agreement is from the year 2,000 and concerns WL and VWL sharing common facility and area costs. The new First Amendment to that agreemnt makes clear that CCV and BRV are going to be sharing their facilities and common areas with both paying for their maintenance. Since CCV will be a shared resort with BRV and WL for the spreading of common facility and area costs, I wonder if the stated annual fees for CCV are telling us that BRV may be in for a big jump in 2018?

This has been a concern with the original owners. Other than the new CS and pool, CCV should be inheriting the increased MF's. Owners are watching. Since the DVC's are separate, it should not significantly affect BRV dues.

 

[brelyt]

I just can't understand why you would pay $176 per point to stay in a 20 year old renovated building, when you can buy resale at $90 per point for the same amenities.

 

[Jennasis]

If all they were doing was renovating the existing DVC at Wilderness Lodge, how can they be selling points to it? Hasn't VWL been sold out for years?? I know I'm missing something...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

If all they were doing was renovating the existing DVC at Wilderness Lodge, how can they be selling points to it? Hasn't VWL been sold out for years?? I know I'm missing something...

This is not a renovation at VWL.

Disney has created a completely new DVC resort at Wilderness lodge called Copper Creek Villas. They are converting approx 1/2 of the hotel rooms into the timeshare and have built the new cabins along Bay Lake.

The existing VWL is still there but they did rename it Boulder Ridge to prevent confusion. I'm not convinced that's going to work.

 

[LAX]

Well I am out on this resort. Family of 5 requires me to always go two bedroom. Kind of disappointed they would not accommodate 5 for the 1BD.

With the high maintenance fees, I will be better off buying some more add on points at AKL or BLT.

I do think this will be one of the nicer overall DVC resorts when it is all said and done, but it just does not fit well with my personal circumstances.

I am in a similar predicament with my youngest now over 3. Not to mention the high maintenance fee. I am now turning my attention to the next DVC resort.

LAX

 

[brelyt]

This is not a renovation at VWL.

Disney has created a completely new DVC resort at Wilderness lodge called Copper Creek Villas. They are converting approx 1/2 of the hotel rooms into the timeshare and have built the new cabins along Bay Lake.

The existing VWL is still there but they did rename it Boulder Ridge to prevent confusion. I'm not convinced that's going to work.

But let's be clear, the majority of the CCV rooms are from the renovated half of the former Wilderness Lodge Hotel. The 40 new rooms are likely too expensive for most people buying in. This has the Polynesian Bungalow scenario signature written all over it, except this time it is worse, with only 11% of the inventory being studios. I'm betting at $176 per point, alot more than 11% of buyers are buying in with the assumption they will be staying in a studio.

 

[DougEMG]

One thing that would make the new resort have higher MF than the old resort is the property tax

So here's something no one seems to be talking about - the potential lack of studios.

DVCnews has a post here they predict the # of each type of room. There is indicated as being 184 rooms, and they have 172 of them as



Since this can't quite be right, the documentation says 184 vacation homes - lets assume that they have are slightly short on the # of dedicated studios and 1-bedrooms...and call it this:



If we convert ALL the lock-offs to studios and 1-bedrooms:



Now we know from another post HERE that the average point requirements are:


Using the two pieces of data above, we can calculate how much of the points are available on any given day for each room type. This comes to:
11% Studios
24% 1-bedrooms
27% 2-bedrooms
7% Grand Villas
31% Cabins

That means only 11 % of the total property points is reserved for studios. Typically DVC has been from what I can see 20-25%. The Poly, because there are so many studios, is about 75% allocated for studios. The Grand Floridian - which is almost impossible to get a studio and even owners have a hard time - I calculate as having 16% of the points allocated to studios.

What fraction of ownership at $176 per point are going to be looking to be in a studio??? I don't really know the answer to that, but I would bet it'll be way more than 11 %. I am looking at this combined with the high dues and thinking that if you want to book a studio, you should NEVER, EVER buy at Copper Creek. The caveat to that being unless the predicted room distribution is far off. If the studios are closer to 20% of the total availability, then you are OK, but otherwise...no way.

Nice work with those estimates. What I find interesting is that the cabins are the largest number of points and I would think that they are going that've higher costs to maintain than the rooms in the main building. It could be that the cabins combined with higher property tax because of high point costs is what is causing the MF to be so high.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Well I am out on this resort. Family of 5 requires me to always go two bedroom. Kind of disappointed they would not accommodate 5 for the 1BD.

The other 1BR all accommodate 5, but some will only have bedding for 4. Maybe its the same with CCV, only bedding for 4, but can accommodate 5.

I know what the sales material says, but maybe that part has a small error? - I think it would be strange if this should be the ONLY resort that did not allow 5 in a 1BR.

i'm not saying that it is an error, just that it would be strange if this should be the only resort not to accommodate 5.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

There must be some physical reason as to why both the 1 bedroom and studio can only accommodate sleeping 4 in a room. After all, these are converted hotel rooms. Better to buy resale at BRV or rent from a BRV owner to get that studio for 5.

 

[peabody58]

Very surprised they included air-bubble tubs. I thought they were eliminating the high end tubs.

We stayed at WL in 2010 at the very end of the new CCV section. I remember a long long walk to our room. I pity those who book a far end cabin and have to walk in the rain to get to their lodging.

May stay at CCV or BRV someday, but have no intentions of purchasing anymore points. Love our 2 bath, 5 sleeper BLT 1 BR villas.

 

[Cyberc1978]

There must be some physical reason as to why both the 1 bedroom and studio can only accommodate sleeping 4 in a room. After all, these are converted hotel rooms. Better to buy resale at BRV or rent from a BRV owner to get that studio for 5.

I agree better to buy BRV to be on the safe side. It just strikes me as strange if the 1BR can only accommodate 4. A selling point could have been that the 1BR could accommodate 5, but only have bedding for 4. As others has noted if you are a family of 5, you need a 2BR which will be much more expensive.

My guess is still that this is an error in the material and that it can in fact accommodate 5.

 

[Wakey]

If only 4 can get in, it's a bummer.

 

[skier_pete]

I am in a similar predicament with my youngest now over 3. Not to mention the high maintenance fee. I am now turning my attention to the next DVC resort.

LAX

In 2019 You'll be sorely disappointed to be paying $185 a point for Caribbean Beach...

 

[zavandor]

In 2019 You'll be sorely disappointed to be paying $185 a point for Caribbean Beach...

$185 a point for Caribbean Beach with its gondola transportation to Epcot and DHS with Star Wars Land in it.

 

[drusba]

I agree better to buy BRV to be on the safe side. It just strikes me as strange if the 1BR can only accommodate 4. A selling point could have been that the 1BR could accommodate 5, but only have bedding for 4. As others has noted if you are a family of 5, you need a 2BR which will be much more expensive.

My guess is still that this is an error in the material and that it can in fact accommodate 5.

The studios without an extra Murphy bed will be limited to four as studios without that Murphy bed, such as those at AKV and SSR, are limited now. There is no error in the declarations or the room descriptions about the 1BRs sleeping four. However, that the 1BR sleeps four is a statement that you will find in all the decalarations and in room descriptions online for 1BRa at BWV, SSR, BRV, and BCV that still have only the king and pull-out couch and no sleeper chair or Murphy bed. That is the statement in the official documents that has never been changed. The guideline that allows five in a 1BR if you provide your own bedding is not and never will be made part of the official document rules for those rooms. It is a permitted allowance that Disney could change without making any change to the official documents. It is also a permitted allowance that applies generally to any 1BRs that sleep only four and thus, unless Disney says otherwise, it should apply to CCV 1BRs.

 

[CarolMN]

Re potential higher MF for BRV:

If the BWV/BWI is a good predictor of the method for allocating the cost of shared amenities, it will depend on the average occupancy assigned to each entity and the total number of points for the DVC entities. (BWV gets allocated more of the total shared cost than BWI due to higher average occupancy). The cost allocated to the DVC entity is divided by the number of points to get the MF per point.

BRV is smaller than CCV, (136 for BRV vs 184 for CCV), but the average occupancy factor that will be assigned to the DVC resorts is tough to estimate. It's not strictly max allowed as far as I know. But pretty sure the DVC resorts are given higher occupancy factors than the non-DVC resorts, so my best guess is that WL share of shared costs (and actual dollar value of those) will go down.

We know what the total number of points for BRV was, and can probably guess at that for CCV. But that doesn't help us much right now because we don't know the relative occupancy factors or the total shared costs. But it's likely that CCV will have more total points to spread it's share across, so not a good omen for BRV fees next year.

2017 dues were set considering shared costs for WL & BRV only. We have the BRV amounts from the budget, but not the amounts Disney is paying for WL. Total shared costs should increase some for the CCV addition, but there will be 3 resorts paying them.

Conclusion: Very hard to estimate what will happen to BRV fees for 2018 as a result of the CCV addition. We are guessing that the maintenance for the cabins will be expensive and that appears to be the only expense that won't be shared between the 3 entities.

Lots of rambling that just means we have to wait and see. CCV at 7.33 is not a good omen, IMO. Let's hope they estimated way high!