CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Jonfw2]

Someone mentioned on another thread that it is school vacation week for many schools. I know many are planning travel this week and next. Hope everyone stays safe. I was wondering why there were reports all over fb about how crowded Disney is right now.

Yes. That and a lot of schools go back in person soon as teachers are getting vaxxed.

 

[Colleen27]

As far as holiday surges, all I can say is Illinois never had a holiday surge - from Thanksgiving or Christmas.

I also expect our testing and vaccinations to be way down in Chicago area for a while, we are getting HAMMERED with snow/cold. On top of all the snow we've gotten already. Yuck.

Yeah, I think that's keeping everything down a bit here in Michigan too - testing and vaccinations, but also cases. It has been brutally cold for the last two weeks and now we're looking at 5-7 inches of overnight snow. The kids are already making snow day plans for tomorrow. But I'll bet the vaccine clinics see a ton of cancellations as older people decide they can't safely dig out and deal with slick roads to get to their appointments.

 

[Jonfw2]

Israel is NOT screwing around: they are threatening to go full carrot and stick: vaccinated? Everything is open to you. Choose not to get it? Nasal swabs every two days.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-covid-misinformation-vaccination-drive-slows

 

[tink2424]

I agree that it’s mostly on the citizens. As for the current state of things.....it seems like there’s just a pretty big percentage of people who are just determined to go against the grain....just for the sake of going against the grain. Sadly, getting the vaccine is considered going “with the grain”.

What about people who have true concerns about the side effects? We can't pretend that there aren't risks with taking the vaccine at this point. The side effects are all over social media and some independent news sites.

It isn't just a matter of going against the grain (sure there are some that are the weirdos that think a micro-chip is being implanted) it is about medical freedom. We should all the the right to what is put in our bodies and the informed consent to do so.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Great news....as is the cases dropping in other areas hard hit by the B-117 variant. I listened to Dr. Osterholm's podcast today, and he's very concerned about that variant taking off here....in the coming weeks. Time will tell if he's right, but he's become very vocal on getting one dose into as many people over 65 as possible...delaying second doses. He's saying we're on a sunny beach right now, and a category 5 hurricane is out there and you'd never know it. His concern is that we're not getting enough vaccines in people and that states are prematurely beginning to open up.

That's happening here in NJ....little by slowly, but it's happening. I heard another leader in the northeast the other day. The metrics they used to shut down restaurants in mid-December were at 40-something cases per 100,000 people. Now they're opening up at 25% indoor....when cases are in the 60s per 100,000 people. He sounded like he was an event planner..."you can get engaged at one of our restaurants on Sunday and have a 250 person indoor wedding in our state in March".

Osterholm is saying that this is too fast, and there's too much "wood" left for this virus to burn through. And with cases of B-117 doubling every ten days....that we're potentially facing a big problem.

I'm not saying this will happen....I have no idea. But he seems pretty confident that it will. I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks. It's also important to keep in mind that in the areas where these variants really took hold, there are very strict lockdowns in place....like the Northeast last spring, but more severe in some cases. This article from The Washington Post addresses this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/13/covid-variants-europe-longer-lockdowns/

Doctor Doom & Gloom.

 

[tink2424]

Did he ever encourage people to actually get the vaccine? I know his aides wanted him to get it on-camera to instill public confidence in it, but he never actually did, right? His M.O. the entire time was not to fear the virus (even after he himself had it) so I think that's the message his supporters took from him.

He did encourage everyone to get it. He didn't take it on camera as his physician did not recommend him taking it since he had had COVID within the last 3 months. Also, he didn't want to take a dose away from someone else while he still had natural immunity. Seems reasonable to me... He was an avid supporter of the vaccines hence Operation Warp Speed.

 

[godisney14]

What about people who have true concerns about the side effects? We can't pretend that there aren't risks with taking the vaccine at this point. The side effects are all over social media and some independent news sites.

It isn't just a matter of going against the grain (sure there are some that are the weirdos that think a micro-chip is being implanted) it is about medical freedom. We should all the the right to what is put in our bodies and the informed consent to do so.

True, there are side effects, though most are minimal as known so far. There is also a small subset of the population that should definitely speak with a doctor about getting the vaccine as well.

I’ll be getting the vaccine at some point and I recommend everyone to do so as well. But, if I hear of someone who was critical of mask wearing also making critical statements of people not wanting to get a vaccine, that would be one of the most hypocritical things ever.

 

[DopeyDame]

I don't doubt those of you who say your area didn't see a holiday surge, but I'm fascinated by it.
I'm not going to link to my county's data, because that's a little too close to putting personally identifying info out there for me, so you'll sort of have to trust me on the numbers, but...

From August to early November, our numbers were relatively stable between 10 and 15 cases/100,000.
They started to rise in early November, reaching a November peak of ~35 right before the dip the week of Thanksgiving (surely due to lower testing).
Two weeks after Thanksgiving we reached a new peak of almost 50.
There's a slight dip (still staying above 40) during the Christmas testing lull
Then almost 70 by mid January.
It sure looks like a holiday travel/get together peak to me.

Did other areas not see that increase? Or Are people suggesting that we would have gone from 15 in early November to 65 in mid January without the holidays? That seems... unlikely... to me.

 

[Jonfw2]

At the clinic now. About to find out for sure which dose we got. The placebo or “the product”.

Assuming I got the placebo, I get a full physical exam, Covid test, blood work, and 30 minute wait after injection.

 

[Jonfw2]

As expected, I got the placebo. The doc walked in with the following package:

 

[dvcgirl67]

Doctor Doom & Gloom.

Yes, he can be more pessimistic. The former head of the CDC, Dr. Frieden has been fairly pessimistic too. I listened to an article today on the anti-vax movement gaining momentum. The author interviewed several experts and the concern is that we'll never reach herd immunity if we end up having 50 million + Americans who refuse the vaccine. But my thinking is that a lot of the anti-tax types are also likely to be in the "this virus thing is overblown"....and have been out and about in public more...and therefore more likely to have gotten covid and have some level of immunity. Anyway....that's just my hope.

I really think that the reality is that we're all going to just have to learn to live with Covid. It's not going to be eradicated. This year I think international travel will be risky. And maybe large indoor gatherings may be dicey. Once we're vaccinated....we just need to move on the best we can.

 

[TinkB278]

Yes, he can be more pessimistic. The former head of the CDC, Dr. Frieden has been fairly pessimistic too. I listened to an article today on the anti-vax movement gaining momentum. The author interviewed several experts and the concern is that we'll never reach herd immunity if we end up having 50 million + Americans who refuse the vaccine. But my thinking is that a lot of the anti-tax types are also likely to be in the "this virus thing is overblown"....and have been out and about in public more...and therefore more likely to have gotten covid and have some level of immunity. Anyway....that's just my hope.

I really think that the reality is that we're all going to just have to learn to live with Covid. It's not going to be eradicated. This year I think international travel will be risky. And maybe large indoor gatherings may be dicey. Once we're vaccinated....we just need to move on the best we can.

I’ve had the same thought regarding some herd immunity amongst the more vaccine hesitant groups.

 

[godisney14]

I really think that the reality is that we're all going to just have to learn to live with Covid. It's not going to be eradicated. This year I think international travel will be risky. And maybe large indoor gatherings may be dicey. Once we're vaccinated....we just need to move on the best we can.

With international travel, it’s not so much of whether we (Americans) believe it is safe. It is more about how other countries view America as safe. As it stands, many foreign countries are very strict about non-essential travel and/or quarantine requirements for US passengers.

 

[disneypharm]

Based on Worldometers (see below), US cases/deaths are way down. Back in late Nov 2020, our state's daily count was >6000. We are less than 1000 today. I am hoping that it is from vaccines (similar to Israel) and not a temporary decrease in numbers
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[dvcgirl67]

With international travel, it’s not so much of whether we (Americans) believe it is safe. It is more about how other countries view America as safe. As it stands, many foreign countries are very strict about non-essential travel and/or quarantine requirements for US passengers.

That's exactly right....that's what I meant. I saw the U.K just implemented a mandatory, government run hotel quarantine for 33 countries. The cost is $2,500. They're trying to keep variants out of their country.

My fear traveling anywhere would be that I'd get stuck somewhere, or book a trip and not be able to go...etc. Mexico might be the exception.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

With international travel, it’s not so much of whether we (Americans) believe it is safe. It is more about how other countries view America as safe. As it stands, many foreign countries are very strict about non-essential travel and/or quarantine requirements for US passengers.

Eh it's not really the U.S. as much as you would think especially with the UK variant, the South African variant and Brazil and as time has gone on. Believe it or not the rest of the world concerns themselves with other countries besides the U.S. plus we're doing better on vaccination rates especially when considering the EU. If anything the U.S. has more reason to be far more concerned with the rest of the world than the rest of the world has about singling out the U.S. (and they really aren't as much as one would think). You're more likely to find destinations require vaccines these days (especially island nations) rather than barring based on citizenship anyways and the U.S. will end up being better in that respects than other countries.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That's exactly right....that's what I meant. I saw the U.K just implemented a mandatory, government run hotel quarantine for 33 countries. The cost is $2,500. They're trying to keep variants out of their country.

My fear traveling anywhere would be that I'd get stuck somewhere, or book a trip and not be able to go...etc. Mexico might be the exception.

I'd say testing requirements is probably the main factor since a negative test is required upon re-entry so you'd want to make sure your destination or airline offers that.

 

[Colleen27]

I don't doubt those of you who say your area didn't see a holiday surge, but I'm fascinated by it.
I'm not going to link to my county's data, because that's a little too close to putting personally identifying info out there for me, so you'll sort of have to trust me on the numbers, but...

From August to early November, our numbers were relatively stable between 10 and 15 cases/100,000.
They started to rise in early November, reaching a November peak of ~35 right before the dip the week of Thanksgiving (surely due to lower testing).
Two weeks after Thanksgiving we reached a new peak of almost 50.
There's a slight dip (still staying above 40) during the Christmas testing lull
Then almost 70 by mid January.
It sure looks like a holiday travel/get together peak to me.

Did other areas not see that increase? Or Are people suggesting that we would have gone from 15 in early November to 65 in mid January without the holidays? That seems... unlikely... to me.

I am saying that the peak would have come regardless, yes. And this is why: several states, mine among them, saw the big spike and winter peak *before* the holidays. We went from 10 in Sept. to 80 in mid-Nov., just days before Thanksgiving, and trended down from there. Looking around the upper midwest, that's a common pattern. We peaked on Nov. 20. Wisconsin peaked on Nov. 18, Minnesota on Nov. 20, North Dakota on Nov. 18, South Dakota on Nov. 14. The holidays couldn't have fueled the rapid increase in those states... and yet, we/they saw the same pattern of cases as everyone else, just a few weeks earlier. The fact that a winter spike has been universal but the timing has varied based on geography tells me that the seasonality of the virus had more to do with the increased pace of spread than any particular human event did.

Yes, he can be more pessimistic. The former head of the CDC, Dr. Frieden has been fairly pessimistic too. I listened to an article today on the anti-vax movement gaining momentum. The author interviewed several experts and the concern is that we'll never reach herd immunity if we end up having 50 million + Americans who refuse the vaccine. But my thinking is that a lot of the anti-tax types are also likely to be in the "this virus thing is overblown"....and have been out and about in public more...and therefore more likely to have gotten covid and have some level of immunity. Anyway....that's just my hope.

This is more doom and gloom thinking... the polling on willingness to get the vaccine has trended consistently in the right direction, indicating that is the vaccine rather than the anti-vax movement that has momentum on its side. There was a point when barely half of respondents indicated a willingness to get vaccinated. The last poll I saw, that number was up to 2/3. I expect it to continue to rise as more and more people get the vaccine without complications. Americans tend to be more swayed by the opinions and experiences of friends & family than by professional expertise or advice, so as more people know someone who got the shot without any problems, the share of people who reject getting it themselves is likely to shrink.

 

[Farro]

Yes, he can be more pessimistic. The former head of the CDC, Dr. Frieden has been fairly pessimistic too. I listened to an article today on the anti-vax movement gaining momentum. The author interviewed several experts and the concern is that we'll never reach herd immunity if we end up having 50 million + Americans who refuse the vaccine. But my thinking is that a lot of the anti-tax types are also likely to be in the "this virus thing is overblown"....and have been out and about in public more...and therefore more likely to have gotten covid and have some level of immunity. Anyway....that's just my hope.

I really think that the reality is that we're all going to just have to learn to live with Covid. It's not going to be eradicated. This year I think international travel will be risky. And maybe large indoor gatherings may be dicey. Once we're vaccinated....we just need to move on the best we can.

Well, I'm learning to live with Covid by getting vaccinated so if I do get it, it's mild. And helping everyone I know to secure appointments when available. And still masking up.

If the time comes that vaccines are available to all and people are still refusing, then I'm all for requiring vaccinations to travel, go to concerts, to not need a mask. You choose not to get vaccinated, then you need to protect yourself while the rest of us move on. Enough is enough.

Obviously there will always be people who can't get for medical reasons, so they would be exempt from requirements, but unfortunately would still have to take extra care to protect themselves.

I will say, I would willingly wear a mask on all forms of public transportation from here on out.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I’ve had the same thought regarding some herd immunity amongst the more vaccine hesitant groups.

This is the group that will be more likely to contract the virus. Therefore still potentially contribute to some herd immunity.