CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Colleen27]

Great news....as is the cases dropping in other areas hard hit by the B-117 variant. I listened to Dr. Osterholm's podcast today, and he's very concerned about that variant taking off here....in the coming weeks. Time will tell if he's right, but he's become very vocal on getting one dose into as many people over 65 as possible...delaying second doses. He's saying we're on a sunny beach right now, and a category 5 hurricane is out there and you'd never know it. His concern is that we're not getting enough vaccines in people and that states are prematurely beginning to open up.

That's happening here in NJ....little by slowly, but it's happening. I heard another leader in the northeast the other day. The metrics they used to shut down restaurants in mid-December were at 40-something cases per 100,000 people. Now they're opening up at 25% indoor....when cases are in the 60s per 100,000 people. He sounded like he was an event planner..."you can get engaged at one of our restaurants on Sunday and have a 250 person indoor wedding in our state in March".

Osterholm is saying that this is too fast, and there's too much "wood" left for this virus to burn through. And with cases of B-117 doubling every ten days....that we're potentially facing a big problem.

I'm not saying this will happen....I have no idea. But he seems pretty confident that it will. I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks. It's also important to keep in mind that in the areas where these variants really took hold, there are very strict lockdowns in place....like the Northeast last spring, but more severe in some cases. This article from The Washington Post addresses this.

Not a scientist, but I question how much dry wood is left to burn in the US. Right now, even with the surge of cases caused by the new variant, the cumulative case rate in the UK would place it 44th if it were a US state, with only 6 states, DC and Puerto Rico having lower rates. About a dozen states have had twice as many cases per 100K. And that's just based on confirmed cases, without attempting to account for the fact that like most of Europe, the UK has had a much stronger testing scheme that went into effect much more quickly than ours. So my guess is that the new variant isn't going to find quite as much kindling among our population now as it did in the UK when it was first identified; I think it is more likely to encounter a lot of semi-damp wood, enough to allow for some flare ups and a slow, struggling burn that never quite takes off but not enough to spark a wildfire. Look at the states where the new variant has been identified: their case rates are still falling, despite the new variant making up a higher percentage of tested samples, and some (like FL) have almost no restrictions in place at all.

Osterholm has consistently been on the more alarmist/pessimistic side of the professional spectrum, and while I do appreciate his caution, I also think it is noteworthy that those experts that have been pretty solidly in the middle (like Fauci) are presenting a much more measured view of the coming weeks and months - not advocating throwing caution to the wind, but also not warning that disaster is lurking just over the horizon.

 

[dvcgirl67]

All excellent points. By, say, late March, we will have around 100 million people with at least one dose I believe, due in large part to the number of people who will start getting the "one and done" JNJ vax soon. Between that number and the amount of people with antibodies (probably double what we know of), I just don't agree that the "wood left to burn" will be enough for the category 5 hurricane.

I am not a skientist though, to be sure.

I hope Osterholm is wrong....he's been talking about this for at least a month now. I think he was on Meet The Press two weeks ago talking about the UK variant and suggesting we pivot to getting one dose of the mRNA vaccines in as many people over 65 as possible. He went as far this week to say that local public health departments and hospitals need to prepare for this surge this he believes is coming. He's on the advisory board for the new Administration...so he always makes it clear that he's speaking for himself, and not them....kind of a sticky situation there.

If there's one thing we've all learned from this experience, is that if he's right....we'll know soon enough. To me, it's also interesting to watch the numbers come down, just about everywhere. There is obviously a natural rhythm to a pandemic. Osterholm isn't alone though. A lot of public heath leaders are raising concerns that here in the states we are beginning to open up prematurely.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Not a scientist, but I question how much dry wood is left to burn in the US. Right now, even with the surge of cases caused by the new variant, the cumulative case rate in the UK would place it 44th if it were a US state, with only 6 states, DC and Puerto Rico having lower rates. About a dozen states have had twice as many cases per 100K. And that's just based on confirmed cases, without attempting to account for the fact that like most of Europe, the UK has had a much stronger testing scheme that went into effect much more quickly than ours. So my guess is that the new variant isn't going to find quite as much kindling among our population now as it did in the UK when it was first identified; I think it is more likely to encounter a lot of semi-damp wood, enough to allow for some flare ups and a slow, struggling burn that never quite takes off but not enough to spark a wildfire. Look at the states where the new variant has been identified: their case rates are still falling, despite the new variant making up a higher percentage of tested samples, and some (like FL) have almost no restrictions in place at all.

Osterholm has consistently been on the more alarmist/pessimistic side of the professional spectrum, and while I do appreciate his caution, I also think it is noteworthy that those experts that have been pretty solidly in the middle (like Fauci) are presenting a much more measured view of the coming weeks and months - not advocating throwing caution to the wind, but also not warning that disaster is lurking just over the horizon.

I hope you're right, and that the variant will find "semi-damp" wood. That's what I personally have been envisioning. But then again, what the heck do I know....I'm just reading and following along like the rest of you guys. I also think of the "wood" that is still available to this virus. It's already raged through the long term care facilities and older populations. Lots of younger essential workers have gotten it by this point. Lots and lots of younger people, many never even knowing they had it...etc. I feel like now the virus is running into a population that is going to be tougher to infect, for instance, like many of us around here. A lot of us around here have avoided travel, indoor dining, indoor gatherings of any kind (including family). And so I'm hoping that as vaccines roll out....this virus will never get the chance to infect those of us who are still being ultra-careful. And I'll add that most of who are being "ultra-careful" are fortunate enough to be in the position to do so.

And also agree that the case numbers are really plummeting here....everywhere really. Osterholm believes that the B-117 variant is just in the early stages of taking route. That it's one thing to go from 100 cases to 200 cases in 10 days, but when we're up in the thousands of cases, and if they double every ten days...we've got a problem. If you listen to this podcast, he's not saying "if" this will happen....rather "when" it will happen. But I would also completely agree that Osterholm has been more alarmist/pessimistic than others...for sure.

 

[Pyotr]

I hope Osterholm is wrong....he's been talking about this for at least a month now. I think he was on Meet The Press two weeks ago talking about the UK variant and suggesting we pivot to getting one dose of the mRNA vaccines in as many people over 65 as possible. He went as far this week to say that local public health departments and hospitals need to prepare for this surge this he believes is coming. He's on the advisory board for the new Administration...so he always makes it clear that he's speaking for himself, and not them....kind of a sticky situation there.

If there's one thing we've all learned from this experience, is that if he's right....we'll know soon enough. To me, it's also interesting to watch the numbers come down, just about everywhere. There is obviously a natural rhythm to a pandemic. Osterholm isn't alone though. A lot of public heath leaders are raising concerns that here in the states we are beginning to open up prematurely.

In October Osterholm also predicted that Florida would be a “house on fire” in “8 to 10 weeks,” due to the lack of restrictions. Sure, our cases went up, along with the entire country. But I would hardly put it in “house on fire” category. Currently cases and hospitalizations are dropping.

The IHME has the surge of all surges coming later this month. That alone makes me feel better because they have been comically wrong the entire pandemic.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I just wanted to chime in on cases. While the local officials don't want people to get too 'throwing caution to the wind' and are trying to keep people vigilant our cases, which just recently were lowest since October, are now lowest since July in our metro which is between two states:



For my county in particular (partially captured in the above stats):


For my state as a whole:



So I want to keep up doing what we're doing, we're getting double the vaccines in my state next week, keep vaccinations going, keep people at least aware so we don't drop our guards too much, we so need to have lower cases if for nothing else than schools will finally get more and more priority. All of that considering I'm still very very happy to see the situation right now

 

[dvcgirl67]

In October Osterholm also predicted that Florida would be a “house on fire” in “8 to 10 weeks,” due to the lack of restrictions. Sure, our cases went up, along with the entire country. But I would hardly put it in “house on fire” category. Currently cases and hospitalizations are dropping.

The IHME has the surge of all surges coming later this month. That alone makes me feel better because they have been comically wrong the entire pandemic.

Well, I wouldn't hold up Florida as a success story in any regard as far as this pandemic is concerned. For a state with a population of 20 million....they're closing in on 2 million cases and 30,000 deaths. That's worse than a lot of developing nations in the world. Indonesia has fewer cases and is only a bit higher in death toll with a population over 13 times the size of Florida. I don't know, the leadership in Florida has pretty much been...."we're open....you don't like it.....screw you." They've been the best at downplaying the pandemic as not being a big deal.....a kind of "it is what it is" stance. I think Florida had some hospitalization issues in South Florida during their first big wave, but weren't in the same situation that say....Queens or the Bronx was during the very first wave in the northeast. So if that's what you mean by it not being a "house on fire"....I guess that's correct.

The IHME models have a few different scenarios. The one with the massive surge in a month or so is the "if nobody wore masks and we do absolutely nothing to mitigate" line. That takes it up to over 300K cases. The "current projected" line has us back up to 210K cases at a peak....in early April. But I won't argue that the IHME models have been off to the high side....they have. I'm glad that they were wrong and hope they are again.

 

[Jonfw2]

Well, I wouldn't hold up Florida as a success story in any regard as far as this pandemic is concerned. For a state with a population of 20 million....they're closing in on 2 million cases and 30,000 deaths. That's worse than a lot of developing nations in the world. Indonesia has fewer cases and is only a bit higher in death toll with a population over 13 times the size of Florida. I don't know, the leadership in Florida has pretty much been...."we're open....you don't like it.....screw you." They've been the best at downplaying the pandemic as not being a big deal.....a kind of "it is what it is" stance. I think Florida had some hospitalization issues in South Florida during their first big wave, but weren't in the same situation that say....Queens or the Bronx was during the very first wave in the northeast. So if that's what you mean by it not being a "house on fire"....I guess that's correct.

The IHME models have a few different scenarios. The one with the massive surge in a month or so is the "if nobody wore masks and we do absolutely nothing to mitigate" line. That takes it up to over 300K cases. The "current projected" line has us back up to 210K cases at a peak....in early April. But I won't argue that the IHME models have been off to the high side....they have. I'm glad that they were wrong and hope they are again.

New York has the same population and is worse in every category.

 

[dvcgirl67]

New York has the same population and is worse in every category.

I know that....the other poster brought up Florida....saying that Osterholm said it was about to be a "house on fire". The poster implied it wasn't. I was just pointing out that Florida doesn't have a great track record as far as this pandemic is concerned.

We all know about what happened in New York...NJ...etc.

 

[Pyotr]

I know that....the other poster brought up Florida....saying that Osterholm said it was about to be a "house on fire". The poster implied it wasn't. I was just pointing out that Florida doesn't have a great track record as far as this pandemic is concerned.

We all know about what happened in New York...NJ...etc.

In October Osterholm said that. My point was that Florida went through an increase in cases but it was roughly the same as every other state. Osterholm’s “house on fire” prediction never happened.

 

[jlwhitney]

Well, I wouldn't hold up Florida as a success story in any regard as far as this pandemic is concerned. For a state with a population of 20 million....they're closing in on 2 million cases and 30,000 deaths. That's worse than a lot of developing nations in the world. Indonesia has fewer cases and is only a bit higher in death toll with a population over 13 times the size of Florida. I don't know, the leadership in Florida has pretty much been...."we're open....you don't like it.....screw you." They've been the best at downplaying the pandemic as not being a big deal.....a kind of "it is what it is" stance. I think Florida had some hospitalization issues in South Florida during their first big wave, but weren't in the same situation that say....Queens or the Bronx was during the very first wave in the northeast. So if that's what you mean by it not being a "house on fire"....I guess that's correct.

The IHME models have a few different scenarios. The one with the massive surge in a month or so is the "if nobody wore masks and we do absolutely nothing to mitigate" line. That takes it up to over 300K cases. The "current projected" line has us back up to 210K cases at a peak....in early April. But I won't argue that the IHME models have been off to the high side....they have. I'm glad that they were wrong and hope they are again.

You didn't mention that Florida has a much higher amount of elderly and the average age in florida is higher than in other places, especially CA which FL is compared to a lot. Which by now I think we can all agree on over 70 is a much higher risk for death.

 

[dvcgirl67]

In October Osterholm said that. My point was that Florida went through an increase in cases but it was roughly the same as every other state. Osterholm’s “house on fire” prediction never happened.

I understand your point....Florida's numbers were like many other states during the big surge this fall into winter. Not great...a ton of cases, a lot of deaths, but hospitals weren't overwhelmed.

 

[Pyotr]

Well, I wouldn't hold up Florida as a success story in any regard as far as this pandemic is concerned. For a state with a population of 20 million....they're closing in on 2 million cases and 30,000 deaths. That's worse than a lot of developing nations in the world. Indonesia has fewer cases and is only a bit higher in death toll with a population over 13 times the size of Florida. I don't know, the leadership in Florida has pretty much been...."we're open....you don't like it.....screw you." They've been the best at downplaying the pandemic as not being a big deal.....a kind of "it is what it is" stance. I think Florida had some hospitalization issues in South Florida during their first big wave, but weren't in the same situation that say....Queens or the Bronx was during the very first wave in the northeast. So if that's what you mean by it not being a "house on fire"....I guess that's correct.

The IHME models have a few different scenarios. The one with the massive surge in a month or so is the "if nobody wore masks and we do absolutely nothing to mitigate" line. That takes it up to over 300K cases. The "current projected" line has us back up to 210K cases at a peak....in early April. But I won't argue that the IHME models have been off to the high side....they have. I'm glad that they were wrong and hope they are again.

Additionally, you should compare Florida to other states, not island countries. How does California and New York compare to Indonesia? This is a Disney Forum and WDW is open because Florida allows it. Has keeping Disneyland closed made any difference in Southern California’s case count?

 

[dvcgirl67]

Additionally, you should compare Florida to other states, not island countries. How does California and New York compare to Indonesia? This is a Disney Forum and WDW is open because Florida allows it. Has keeping Disneyland closed made any difference in Southern California’s case count?

Since when, on this community board....do we need to factor Disney into the picture? Comparisons to other states and nations are also made all of the time. I'm not just picking on Florida here. I think the United States has done a really terrible job in combating this pandemic. And none of that really matters now....it is what it is. But I don't think anyone can really dispute that.

Like everyone else....I'm hoping that the vaccines will return us to some sense of normality sometime this year.

 

[Jonfw2]

Since when, on this community board....do we need to factor Disney into the picture? Comparisons to other states and nations are also made all of the time. I'm not just picking on Florida here. I think the United States has done a really terrible job in combating this pandemic. And none of that really matters now....it is what it is. But I don't think anyone can really dispute that.

Like everyone else....I'm hoping that the vaccines will return us to some sense of normality sometime this year.

I don’t even blame the government. I blame the citizens. Way too many people here don’t like being told what to do so they don’t do it.

The weird thing for me is supporters of the former president being so anti-vax. They usually follow him like disciples but on this one thing, they diverge???

 

[dvcgirl67]

I don’t even blame the government. I blame the citizens. Way too many people here don’t like being told what to do so they don’t do it.

The weird thing for me is supporters of the former president being so anti-vax. They usually follow him like disciples but on this one thing, they diverge???

I agree that it’s mostly on the citizens. As for the current state of things.....it seems like there’s just a pretty big percentage of people who are just determined to go against the grain....just for the sake of going against the grain. Sadly, getting the vaccine is considered going “with the grain”.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Additionally, you should compare Florida to other states, not island countries. How does California and New York compare to Indonesia? This is a Disney Forum and WDW is open because Florida allows it. Has keeping Disneyland closed made any difference in Southern California’s case count?

Well in fairness, Los Angeles County (which neighbors Orange County) is 10 million people alone - so half that of the entire state of FL.

I am not here to defend CA. We have nothing to brag about. And I agree with you about not comparing to an island country. But then we should really keep all comparisons apples to apples.

 

[jlwhitney]

Well in fairness, Los Angeles County (which neighbors Orange County) is 10 million people alone - so half that of the entire state of FL.

I am not here to defend CA. We have nothing to brag about. And I agree with you about not comparing to an island country. But then we should really keep all comparisons apples to apples.

It is really hard to make most comparisons, so many factors. Per capita is a bit a better judge but even that isn't fully accurate. They average age of the population is a big factor, as well as living conditions and density , even over wealth of an area . None of its perfect but its all factors.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Well in fairness, Los Angeles County (which neighbors Orange County) is 10 million people alone - so half that of the entire state of FL.

I am not here to defend CA. We have nothing to brag about. And I agree with you about not comparing to an island country. But then we should really keep all comparisons apples to apples.

You're right...I shouldn't have compared one of our states to another nation. And you're also correct that you can't compare California to most other states.

 

[okeydokey]

Florida’s is so behind in this. My son is in the medically fragile group and can’t source a vaccine anywhere, there are several websites and numbers to keep track of. It’s frustrating.

Both of my young nephews in NJ have been vacinnated already as essential employees (on earth in banking, the other in transportation) Andy I still get my compromised son an appointment in florid.

 

[Colleen27]

Florida’s is so behind in this. My son is in the medically fragile group and can’t source a vaccine anywhere, there are several websites and numbers to keep track of. It’s frustrating.

Both of my young nephews in NJ have been vacinnated already as essential employees (on earth in banking, the other in transportation) Andy I still get my compromised son an appointment in florid.

I think that's true of more states than not. The medically fragile aren't yet eligible in my state either - only over 65, medical professionals, school staff and first responders. Medically vulnerable is group 1C and we're currently in 1B.

Florida and New Jersey are about comparable both in terms of per capita covid cases and in percentage of the population vaccinated, but they've taken wildly different approaches in getting to essentially the same place.