CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[jlwhitney]

Cases continue to absolutely fall like a rock in the US. Down over 30% from last Friday (100,000 today vs 132,000 last week). Cases are going to really have to rocket for the variant doomsday prognosticators to be correct.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think while yes vaccinations will help , but right now I really think this is nature playing its course out like all pandemics/epidemics do.

 

[Jonfw2]

Maybe I am wrong, but I think while yes vaccinations will help , but right now I really think this is nature playing its course out like all pandemics/epidemics do.

If Fauci is correct and in the next few weeks we dramatically ramp up the amount of vaccinations, it will be very difficult for any variants to gain momentum.

 

[jlwhitney]

If Fauci is correct and in the next few weeks we dramatically ramp up the amount of vaccinations, it will be very difficult for any variants to gain momentum.

Let’s hope. I really see normalcy later this year .

 

[TLSnell1981]

Let’s hope. I really see normalcy later this year .

We should see life returning to normal.. Hope it happens.

 

[jlwhitney]

We should see life returning to normal.. Hope it happens.

Same. It will be interesting too see how it plays out across country.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

I’ve said it before, but I’ll repeat it - it wouldn’t surprise me if we’ve already had our own variant strain in the US. Not to say we should feel like we’re out of the woods or that cases can’t increase again, but I just can’t believe it’s been the same strain the whole time while other countries had surges from variants when we’ve had so many more cases.

 

[godisney14]

If Fauci is correct and in the next few weeks we dramatically ramp up the amount of vaccinations, it will be very difficult for any variants to gain momentum.

If this pandemic plays out and the virus becomes normal, like the flu, different variants will always gain momentum. Just like the flu. It would be a matter of how transmissible or severe each new strain is.

COVID is not going to go away, nor is it realistic to think of ridding of COVID (as some people continue to say) any time soon.

 

[TLSnell1981]

If this pandemic plays out and the virus becomes normal, like the flu, different variants will always gain momentum. Just like the flu. It would be a matter of how transmissible or severe each new strain is.

COVID is not going to go away, nor is it realistic to think of ridding of COVID (as some people continue to say) any time soon.

It will always be around just like the "1918 flu."

 

[Wakey]

The US has poor genetic sequencing / surveillance abilities. The person above who says they can’t believe the US doesn’t have its own variants is correct- it will. It’s just likely they haven’t been spotted.
It’s no surprise that U.K. is the world leader and so found it’s variant, and South Africa is also a leader in this area.
Brazil is the other main one, but that has the world’s scientists looking at why a city hasn’t reached herd immunity when it should have.
US will need to increase its’ capability in this regard.
Prof Gilbert, lead on Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine says she still expects the vaccines to stop serious illness and deaths on variants. She says the only way the virus can totally evade the vaccinated immune system is if it loses its spike- which it can’t as then it can’t infect anyone. But it can possibly change a bit more to make the response weaker, hence boosters.
The important thing is the vaccines stop it putting people in hospital- then it becomes a ‘so what’ cold illness.
There’s also the same two main ‘advantage’ mutations arising totally independently all over. This is one that allows easier spread, and one that partially evades immune response. They even know in some lineages this has arisen and then disappeared again. Given how, after probably hundreds of millions of infections, there’s only a few really worrying mutations, and they are the same ones, one theory is the virus only has so far it can go. Imagine a maze with mutations shooting out of a person, hitting the walls and exploding. Only the ones that can go ahead on the same path can happen. This potentially makes it possible to predict where it may go next and prepare a vaccine and store it in a bank- ready to go if it happens.

 

[Jonfw2]

If this pandemic plays out and the virus becomes normal, like the flu, different variants will always gain momentum. Just like the flu. It would be a matter of how transmissible or severe each new strain is.

COVID is not going to go away, nor is it realistic to think of ridding of COVID (as some people continue to say) any time soon.

The difference is the efficacy of the vaccines.

 

[dvcgirl67]

If Fauci is correct and in the next few weeks we dramatically ramp up the amount of vaccinations, it will be very difficult for any variants to gain momentum.

It may be difficult for variants to gain momentum here in the United States in the short term. Unfortunately that's not the case in poorer nations around the globe. The more transmissible variants have traveled all over the world. And that's with some measure of travel restrictions in place. As long as the pandemic is allowed to continue in other parts of the world, we here in the U.S. will be dealing with it.

 

[godisney14]

The difference is the efficacy of the vaccines.

As dvcgirl67 put it, you can vaccinate the entire US all you want. But, you also need to do the same for the rest of the world in this global market unless you stop all travel.

 

[Jonfw2]

As dvcgirl67 put it, you can vaccinate the entire US all you want. But, you also need to do the same for the rest of the world in this global market unless you stop all travel.

Vaccine production will soon allow enough supply for the entire world.

 

[jlwhitney]

It may be difficult for variants to gain momentum here in the United States in the short term. Unfortunately that's not the case in poorer nations around the globe. The more transmissible variants have traveled all over the world. And that's with some measure of travel restrictions in place. As long as the pandemic is allowed to continue in other parts of the world, we here in the U.S. will be dealing with it.

Vaccine production will soon allow enough supply for the entire world.

The very poor countries will be a long time till it gets to them but they also don’t regularly travel outside of their country since well that can’t afford to. And yes some go to them but that is where you will see the requirement to be vaccinated and possible quarantine upon return.

also to note is those countries are much more likely to achieve herd immunity naturally and while will cause a lot of death many of those areas also don’t have the high amount of elderly and those with underlying conditions simply because they don’t have the healthcare to keep those people alive on a good day.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Vaccine production will soon allow enough supply for the entire world.

That doesn't mean that these countries can afford the vaccine....or that they have the infrastructure for a fast rollout. South Africa's president has been shouting to anyone who will listen about vaccine stockpiling by wealthier countries.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...c-without-equal-access-to-vaccine-experts-say

 

[godisney14]

The very poor countries will be a long time till it gets to them but they also don’t regularly travel outside of their country since well that can’t afford to. And yes some go to them but that is where you will see the requirement to be vaccinated and possible quarantine upon return.

also to note is those countries are much more likely to achieve herd immunity naturally and while will cause a lot of death many of those areas also don’t have the high amount of elderly and those with underlying conditions simply because they don’t have the healthcare to keep those people alive on a good day.

And which country is #1 for highest absolute number of cases and deaths, as well as top 10 for highest per capita cases and deaths? The richest.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That doesn't mean that these countries can afford the vaccine....or that they have the infrastructure for a fast rollout. South Africa's president has been shouting to anyone who will listen about vaccine stockpiling by wealthier countries.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...c-without-equal-access-to-vaccine-experts-say

In this I agree with you.

Canada created a scandal because they opted to do an early request on vaccines from Covax in light of their recent vaccine supply issue with Pfizer and Moderna. Covax involves in part multiple wealthier countries and helps fund the ability to get vaccines to those countries and low-income nations. NZ and Singapore, also part of Covax, have requested them as well. PR-wise it hasn't looked good because the early stressing that the wealthy countries of the world pledge to ensure equal distribution occurs world-wide.

The EU is having its own internal strife and oddly enough the fears that the U.S. would be the country more likely to be nationalist haven't really panned out that way...we largely seem to be out of scandals other than not purchasing more months ago when we had the chance.

India is going with what they are calling a "neighborhood first" donation approach and in Jan sent supply to Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and the Maldives but has also donated some to Seychelles, Myanmar and Mauritius. The other poster is also correct for tourist-based countries that they both will rely on other nations more to donate supply in a humanitarian effort (or allied nations) and likely require vaccine OR have made less restrictions for those who are fully vaccinated. I know Seychelles is one of them that has removed quarantine requirements for tourists who are fully vaccinated.

All the supply in the world doesn't mean all of the world will get it and we shouldn't confuse the two there. It's desperately needed to have enough supply for the world but it's equally desperately needed that we ensure the rest of the world gets it and it won't just be them purchasing directly from the manufacturer that's for sure.

 

[Jonfw2]

Last 5 Saturdays in the UK:

41k cases
34k
23k
18k
13k today

 

[dvcgirl67]

Last 5 Saturdays in the UK:

41k cases
34k
23k
18k
13k today

Great news....as is the cases dropping in other areas hard hit by the B-117 variant. I listened to Dr. Osterholm's podcast today, and he's very concerned about that variant taking off here....in the coming weeks. Time will tell if he's right, but he's become very vocal on getting one dose into as many people over 65 as possible...delaying second doses. He's saying we're on a sunny beach right now, and a category 5 hurricane is out there and you'd never know it. His concern is that we're not getting enough vaccines in people and that states are prematurely beginning to open up.

That's happening here in NJ....little by slowly, but it's happening. I heard another leader in the northeast the other day. The metrics they used to shut down restaurants in mid-December were at 40-something cases per 100,000 people. Now they're opening up at 25% indoor....when cases are in the 60s per 100,000 people. He sounded like he was an event planner..."you can get engaged at one of our restaurants on Sunday and have a 250 person indoor wedding in our state in March".

Osterholm is saying that this is too fast, and there's too much "wood" left for this virus to burn through. And with cases of B-117 doubling every ten days....that we're potentially facing a big problem.

I'm not saying this will happen....I have no idea. But he seems pretty confident that it will. I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks. It's also important to keep in mind that in the areas where these variants really took hold, there are very strict lockdowns in place....like the Northeast last spring, but more severe in some cases. This article from The Washington Post addresses this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/13/covid-variants-europe-longer-lockdowns/

 

[Jonfw2]

Great news....as is the cases dropping in other areas hard hit by the B-117 variant. I listened to Dr. Osterholm's podcast today, and he's very concerned about that variant taking off here....in the coming weeks. Time will tell if he's right, but he's become very vocal on getting one dose into as many people over 65 as possible...delaying second doses. He's saying we're on a sunny beach right now, and a category 5 hurricane is out there and you'd never know it. His concern is that we're not getting enough vaccines in people and that states are prematurely beginning to open up.

That's happening here in NJ....little by slowly, but it's happening. I heard another leader in the northeast the other day. The metrics they used to shut down restaurants in mid-December were at 40-something cases per 100,000 people. Now they're opening up at 25% indoor....when cases are in the 60s per 100,000 people. He sounded like he was an event planner..."you can get engaged at one of our restaurants on Sunday and have a 250 person indoor wedding in our state in March".

Osterholm is saying that this is too fast, and there's too much "wood" left for this virus to burn through. And with cases of B-117 doubling every ten days....that we're potentially facing a big problem.

I'm not saying this will happen....I have no idea. But he seems pretty confident that it will. I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks. It's also important to keep in mind that in the areas where these variants really took hold, there are very strict lockdowns in place....like the Northeast last spring, but more severe in some cases. This article from The Washington Post addresses this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/13/covid-variants-europe-longer-lockdowns/

All excellent points. By, say, late March, we will have around 100 million people with at least one dose I believe, due in large part to the number of people who will start getting the "one and done" JNJ vax soon. Between that number and the amount of people with antibodies (probably double what we know of), I just don't agree that the "wood left to burn" will be enough for the category 5 hurricane.

I am not a skientist though, to be sure.