CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Jonfw2]

The bad news this week: a very small uptick in the US's 7 day moving average (perhaps due to lagging reporting/testing last week).

The good news this week: hospitalizations fell every single day and are now at a 4 month low. The Johns Hopkins testing tracker also dropped this week, down to 4.7% which is the lowest since October 15th.

 

[anniemae]

So do people think the JNJ is better for younger people with no health issues? That older folks, say over 45 or 50 with health conditions should wait it out for Pfizer or Moderna?

 

[Jonfw2]

This graph says it all...this is where the whole country is headed. Deaths will plummet and hospitalizations will continue to drop.

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[Jonfw2]

So do people think the JNJ is better for younger people with no health issues? That older folks, say over 45 or 50 with health conditions should wait it out for Pfizer or Moderna?

I would say "not exactly". JNJ reported ZERO Covid cases 49 days after the shot. Compared to the 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna, you're essentially talking about the same wait after your first shot until full immunity.

 

[Pyotr]

Eh, I think I prefer J&J. One shot, a still very good efficacy even against the variants (in fact still on the upper end of what we was hoped for all those months ago), and 100% effective against death. Considering I’m not even high risk in the first place, it takes an unlikely to be deadly-for-me disease and makes it a flu. In one shot.

I will take whatever is offered to me, which I highly suspect will be the J&J vaccine. I already hear other people tell me that they want “the good stuff,” and not the J&J one.

 

[Jonfw2]

I will take whatever is offered to me, which I highly suspect will be the J&J vaccine. I already hear other people tell me that they want “the good stuff,” and not the J&J one.

More failings of the media. It's going to be up to doctors and pharmacists to properly explain this one.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Absolutely!

Meanwhile, my daughter's large flagship university just announced that they are having in person graduation ceremonies this year! I get choked up just thinking about it. She doesn't graduate for 2 years, but I'm just so happy for those families and students. And thrilled for the hope it brings. I finally see a tiny light flickering at the end of a very long dark tunnel.

A few weeks ago KU announced their plan to do that as well; 1 for 2020 and 1 for 2021 on different days though they said they will hold multiple ceremonies so they can socially distance. Walking down The Hill through The Campanile was pretty big for me TBH and has been a tradition for so many decades. I can understand how these graduates feel/felt and happy that universities are resuming that.

 

[mom2rtk]

A few weeks ago KU announced their plan to do that as well; 1 for 2020 and 1 for 2021 on different days though they said they will hold multiple ceremonies so they can socially distance. Walking down The Hill through The Campanile was pretty big for me TBH and has been a tradition for so many decades. I can understand how these graduates feel/felt and happy that universities are resuming that.

So happy to hear that! Mizzou is having one for 2020 grads as well. It's still hard, because for so many the moment has passed. They have moved on to jobs in other places. But I'm glad they're at least offering it.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I'm going with a little bit of both. Death and Hospitalization numbers are also coming down. Many people thought that the testing threshold was too low, but changing that doesn't change how many people are dead or in a hospital.

This is true. Although the average person focuses on the number of "probable" infections. Most don't dig into the numbers.

 

[wenrob]

So do people think the JNJ is better for younger people with no health issues? That older folks, say over 45 or 50 with health conditions should wait it out for Pfizer or Moderna?

I think it’s more likely that it will be the easiest/fastest to get and that’s what they’ll take so they can get on with their lives. What is crazy is that my DD 24 and myself/DH 53/52 are the same tier so we’ll most likely get J&J as well. I’ll take whatever I can get and so will DD. DH is on the fence and we are gently nudging him. I think he’d be more accepting of J&J since it’s more “traditional.”

 

[DLgal]

I'm being lazy, but does anyone know offhand if the J&J will be for ages 16+ or 18+?

 

[Pyotr]

I'm being lazy, but does anyone know offhand if the J&J will be for ages 16+ or 18+?

18+

 

[Pyotr]

Statnews is blogging the FDA panel today if anyone is interested in following along.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/26/tracking-an-fda-advisory-panels-meeting-on-jjs-covid-19-vaccine/

 

[LadyBeBop]

So do people think the JNJ is better for younger people with no health issues? That older folks, say over 45 or 50 with health conditions should wait it out for Pfizer or Moderna?

I'll take what's given to me. That said, I'm hoping it's Pfizer or Moderna. I'm eligible for a vaccine starting next week (age 62 with diabetes). I've heard the JnJ efficacy rate for those over 60 with diabetes is less than 50%. Granted, the sample size may be low. But I'm very skeptical of JnJ for me.

With the smaller amount of JnJ available, I think they'll focus more on the first two. But I think they should focus the JnJ for those under 50.

 

[Joe in VA]

Since the US numbers are slightly up this week for whatever reason, I think we will see them come down again next week, but if I'm wrong I'll be here to eat crow. The daily avg is up from 69k cases to 71k, considering there was a federal holiday and the second largest state was effectively shut down, I think in reality cases are probably down this week.

I've been keeping a keen eye on Florida and the numbers are very good.

Yesterday was the lowest positivity rate since October, and today it is even lower at 5.18%. Cases are trending down as well:

Fl Case Count:

1/28: 10,000
2/5: 7,300
2/12: 7,000
2/19: 7,100
2/25: 5,900

 

[Jonfw2]

2.2 million shots given in the US yesterday- the post-storm lull has ended.

 

[godisney14]

I would say "not exactly". JNJ reported ZERO Covid cases 49 days after the shot. Compared to the 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna, you're essentially talking about the same wait after your first shot until full immunity.

To clarify, J&J commented no "severe" cases reported after 49 days. Not that there were "zero" COVID cases.

Also, that 49 days number was only mentioned once by J&J, during their data release.
Here's the full report submitted to FDA: https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download
What does that number exactly mean without any further context? How many placebo and vaccinated trial participants have reported severe COVID+ since day 50 to now? And the data is somewhat insufficient to say what the effect is beyond that timeframe. As you can see, half of the trial participants (in both groups) are no longer followed starting day 56.

Some notes from the study report by J&J:

• Efficacy results for subgroup ≥75 years of age have limited interpretability as the study pool was too small
• Data were insufficient to assess VE (vaccine efficacy) in participants with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection
• B.1.1.7 (UK variant) was not assessed in the study

 

[Jonfw2]

To clarify, J&J commented no "severe" cases reported after 49 days. Not that there were "zero" COVID cases.

Also, that 49 days number was only mentioned once by J&J, during their data release.
Here's the full report submitted to FDA: https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download
What does that number exactly mean without any further context? How many placebo and vaccinated trial participants have reported severe COVID+ since day 50 to now? And the data is somewhat insufficient to say what the effect is beyond two months. As you can see, half of the trial participants (in both groups) are no longer followed starting day 56.

Some notes from the study report by J&J:

• Efficacy results for subgroup ≥75 years of age have limited interpretability as the study pool was too small
• Data were insufficient to assess VE (vaccine efficacy) in participants with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection
• B.1.1.7 (UK variant) was not assessed in the study

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You are correct about the 49 day mark. Their statement as it's worded is a bit confusing.

 

[godisney14]

You are correct about the 49 day mark. Their statement as it's worded is a bit confusing.

Glad we can agree on that because I keep squinting my eyes every time I see that commented. It's a pretty misleading claim.

 

[Jonfw2]

Glad we can agree on that because I keep squinting my eyes every time I see that commented. It's a pretty misleading claim.

Again, I am sorry.