Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Meriweather]

5,000 in California Monday. More than ever before.

Listed at 6139 today
Here (Arizona) is at 3593

 

[RamblingMad]

Listed at 6139 today
Here (Arizona) is at 3593

Did you see the percentage positive? It’s like 1 in 5. That’s insane. And LA is blowing up. It must be the impact of the protests.

 

[tvguy]

Did you see the percentage positive? It’s like 1 in 5. That’s insane. And LA is blowing up. It must be the impact of the protests.

They are saying no. Small family gatherings are being blamed for much of the spike. Makes me feel a little frightened as my Granddaughter's First birthday party is this weekend with a group of 10, 8 of which are people outside my "bubble".

 

[gwynne]

They are saying no. Small family gatherings are being blamed for much of the spike. Makes me feel a little frightened as my Granddaughter's First birthday party is this weekend with a group of 10, 8 of which are people outside my "bubble".

Hopefully the parents are aware of the current situation and will consider modifying their plans.

 

[Carol_]

 

[tvguy]

Hopefully the parents are aware of the current situation and will consider modifying their plans.

They have, it will be an outdoor party with social distancing.

 

[disneychrista]

Wish I knew! I will say that I've been following the breakdown pretty closely and community transmission hasn't increased a lot, but close contact is where it's been rising. And that follows the reports of "clusters" we've been told. We did have one new death yesterday (or Sunday) that came from a long term care facility, so I would imagine that a lot of the testing, and perhaps the new cases, have come from that. We get an excellent break down of numbers/percents/etc, but very little in where they've come.

I think I've mentioned that about 77% of our positive cases were in the Hispanic/Latino community, despite only making up 23% of our county population. It wasn't until about 2 weeks later that we found out they were target testing there. It's hard to know now if that continues to be the case (target testing) or if the Hispanic/Latino community continues to be disproportionately affected naturally.

We didn't have any community spread until the beginning of June. Now we are seeing that number raise every day. Close contact is also raising. It seems we get one person with "community spread" and they give it to all their friends and family. We have a weekly virtual press conference & update. The health officer will give some limited information on how the cases are being found. Right now we have a large outbreak/cluster from a graduation party/parties where masks and social distancing weren't followed and a smaller outbreak from an in person church service.

Hispanics make up a large percent of our positives too.


Another record day for us.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

We didn't have any community spread until the beginning of June. Now we are seeing that number raise every day. Close contact is also raising. It seems we get one person with "community spread" and they give it to all their friends and family. We have a weekly virtual press conference & update. The health officer will give some limited information on how the cases are being found. Right now we have a large outbreak/cluster from a graduation party/parties where masks and social distancing weren't followed and a smaller outbreak from an in person church service.

Hispanics make up a large percent of our positives too.


Another record day for us.

I did read an article in today's paper that there are cases spreading through the long term care/skilled nursing facilities, so I'm thinking that really is where many of our positives came from. Which is also really sad since this group tends to be the most susceptible to serious complications/death.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

We didn't have any community spread until the beginning of June. Now we are seeing that number raise every day. Close contact is also raising. It seems we get one person with "community spread" and they give it to all their friends and family. We have a weekly virtual press conference & update. The health officer will give some limited information on how the cases are being found. Right now we have a large outbreak/cluster from a graduation party/parties where masks and social distancing weren't followed and a smaller outbreak from an in person church service.

Hispanics make up a large percent of our positives too.


Another record day for us.

Are they defining community spread as unknown transmission? Or as something else? That seems extremely unlikely that there was no community spread until June unless some other definition is being used, IMO at least.

One of the counties in my state, the one that typically has the most cases due to meat processing plants, states they didn't have community spread because they had contact traced every one of their positives therefore they could identify the source.

Our first community spread in my county (was considered the first in the state too) was way way way back in March as it was defined as "no known source" meaning it wasn't travel related, it wasn't related to exposure to a known positive patient, it was from an unknown source.

 

[disneychrista]

Are they defining community spread as unknown transmission? Or as something else?

Yes unknown source of infection is what is defined as community spread.

Let me rephrase - there were no KNOWN cases of community spread until June. All KNOWN cases could be traced to contact with another KNOWN case or was travel related.

 

[elphaba91]

My state (population 6.4 million) has now had 8 days straight of cases in the double digits and today hit our 20th death; the rest of the country has either been at zero cases or extremely low single digits, which is where we were a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately people have been letting their guards down and having large family gatherings, crowding shopping centres and not social distancing. There have also been cases where the security guards at hotel quarantine obviously haven't been following procedures and have caught the virus and then transmitted it to others. Some people who have been told to self-isolate have even continued going to work or socialising; yesterday police did 174 checks and 13 people weren't home! Hopefully this is the kick in the pants that everyone needed and it's not too late to get things back under control.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yes unknown source of infection is what is defined as community spread.

Let me rephrase - there were no KNOWN cases of community spread until June. All KNOWN cases could be traced to contact with another KNOWN case or was travel related.

That's impressive really.

Back on March 12th when the first community spread case was discovered in my state (it was actually a test done on an elderly gentleman with many health issues who had passed away and was also our first death) the understanding was a lot different back then.

At the same time actually helps me understand your prior posts on the subject. I've had over 3 1/2 months worth of community spread to contend with so while I'm quite cautious still--I'm actually keeping a log now of my locations we go to and what times (for purposes of contact tracing) since re-introducing ourselves to our family over the weekend--I'm much more used to the idea of being out and about and the feeling of knowing every place is a risk though we also started off with such a low number of tests it was pitiful. I only say this because it helped bring in a perspective of your prior comments not at all meant disrespectfully.

 

[TJA]

Southwest NY here. Cases are about the same. We get a few new positives each week. Most recover. We've had 5 or 6 total deaths.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Yes unknown source of infection is what is defined as community spread.

Let me rephrase - there were no KNOWN cases of community spread until June. All KNOWN cases could be traced to contact with another KNOWN case or was travel related.

Interesting. Our county divides it between 4 groups - close contact, community spread, travel and unknown.

(General thought, not directed at you.)
I think so many of these conversations would be easier to have if we were all looking at the same info. If all areas classified and accounted for their numbers in the same way, if all the phases matched, if there were any consensus in any of it. There will always be those that disagree, but I often wonder how much is our personal knowledge of our own area and how it’s done, reflecting on how we view what others are doing.

For example, I have a friend in OR who was upset they were in still phase 1. And I understood based on what our phase 1 was. Until I looked and their phase 1 includes everything up through our phase 3!

 

[disneychrista]

Interesting. Our county divides it between 4 groups - close contact, community spread, travel and unknown.

We have four too. Our fourth is "under investigation" which are the new cases that they still need to do contract tracing and investigation. Eventually they go into one of the other 3.

And I totally agree it would be nice to have a universal way of reporting things. It gets very confusing when we aren't all talking the same "language."

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

We have four too. Our fourth is "under investigation" which are the new cases that they still need to do contract tracing and investigation. Eventually they go into one of the other 3.

And I totally agree it would be nice to have a universal way of reporting things. It gets very confusing when we aren't all talking the same "language."

I just looked up ours again. Our official county dashboard says “under investigation” as the 4th, but that same number is “unkown” in our newspaper dashboard. They also don’t agree on how many ICU beds we have total in the county. It would be nice if we could even get the two reporting sites to agree!

But as I was looking, I saw they posted an article. Our huge spike yesterday came from a skilled nursing facility, a long term care facility, continued targeted testing in the Hispanic/Latino community and a large outbreak in a homeless population. Our news cases today are half of yesterday. Still more than I’d like, but our health director says we’re still well below all state benchmarks, so I guess it’s as ok as it can be?

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Double post

 

[gotomu212]

The first 4-5 charts they post are all of death counts. Isn't it well known that the death counts lag (by 2-3 weeks?) behind the positive case and hospitalization count? Didn't Florida's rise (I won't call it a spike) just start in the last week or so? So we're still at least a week if not more from seeing if death counts rise?

Here's the hospitalization chart they mention:
View attachment 503603

Sure looks like an increase from early June until now.

This feels like such deja vu and like March when people were claiming fatality rates were way overstated because people in the US weren’t dying like they were in Italy doesn’t it? Many of us sadly kept saying wait a few weeks, it takes time for the lagging indicator but when it shows up deaths are going to sudden skyrocket. It feels like several of these emerging states are right back in the same situation- cases way up but some trying to find justifications for why death rate is lower. Hopefully some of the new knowledge will improve outcomes but it seems so odd that we’re glossing over the example for how this behaved not 3 months ago.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Interesting. Our county divides it between 4 groups - close contact, community spread, travel and unknown.

(General thought, not directed at you.)
I think so many of these conversations would be easier to have if we were all looking at the same info. If all areas classified and accounted for their numbers in the same way, if all the phases matched, if there were any consensus in any of it. There will always be those that disagree, but I often wonder how much is our personal knowledge of our own area and how it’s done, reflecting on how we view what others are doing.

For example, I have a friend in OR who was upset they were in still phase 1. And I understood based on what our phase 1 was. Until I looked and their phase 1 includes everything up through our phase 3!

I agree about the numbers part, it's hard to compare that without uniformity and honesty because that is more science driven I'm not sure why there isn't a uniform way of being able to look at it.

The phases however make a bit more sense to be different. Our states are all different, they were hit differently and at different times and have different characteristics of them. This played out during stay at home orders too. It does make for a confusing discussion with respects to what is open, occupancy and limits on gatherings but I can't see any way around it. I also think in terms of our officials including health officials their response are different which is natural. Even if you had uniformity in the phases not everyone would agree on when they would move on to the next or hold out in the current phase.

I think you're right about the personal experience. Yeesh even having a family member in the NYC metro area I couldn't even imagine how they felt when NYC was at its height of issues..

 

[disneychrista]

But as I was looking, I saw they posted an article. Our huge spike yesterday came from a skilled nursing facility, a long term care facility, continued targeted testing in the Hispanic/Latino community and a large outbreak in a homeless population. Our news cases today are half of yesterday. Still more than I’d like, but our health director says we’re still well below all state benchmarks, so I guess it’s as ok as it can be?

I think you can look at the targeted testing in the Hispanic community
as a way to try to help mitigate the spread in a population with a high incidence. If they test and isolate positives, it SHOULD, slow the spread through that community thus reducing their overall numbers.

The worst part about nursing home cases/deaths is that it was likely an employee who brought it in. The residence aren’t liking going out to restaurants or grocery shopping.