Cases rising or dropping by you?

[RamblingMad]

This feels like such deja vu and like March when people were claiming fatality rates were way overstated because people in the US weren’t dying like they were in Italy doesn’t it? Many of us sadly kept saying wait a few weeks, it takes time for the lagging indicator but when it shows up deaths are going to sudden skyrocket. It feels like several of these emerging states are right back in the same situation- cases way up but some trying to find justifications for why death rate is lower. Hopefully some of the new knowledge will improve outcomes but it seems so odd that we’re glossing over the example for how this behaved not 3 months ago.

I’m hoping the fatality rates drop due to the treatment options they’re coming up with. But we still need hospital capacity.

 

[godisney14]

The “rates” will most likely be lower this time around since the denominator of tests conducted should be a lot more now. But, the total deaths in the numerator will be more IMO.


Here’s a little sad humor from a politician in Arizona. Proposing $4,000 per adult and $500 per child in tax credits for travel expenses.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tax...l-mcsally-tax-domestic-stimulus-travel-2020-6
Yea, let’s just give everyone money and send them off to other states in the midst of one of the worst situations in the US.

 

[RamblingMad]

5511 new cases in FL today with a positivity rate of 15.9%. Off the charts. That’s crazy.

 

[RamblingMad]

The “rates” will most likely be lower this time around since the denominator of tests conducted should be a lot more now. But, the total deaths in the numerator will be more IMO.


Here’s a little sad humor from a politician in Arizona. Proposing $4,000 per adult and $500 per child in tax credits for travel expenses.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tax...l-mcsally-tax-domestic-stimulus-travel-2020-6
Yea, let’s just give everyone money and send them off to other states in the midst of one of the worst situations in the US.

The alternative is to write the travel companies and airlines a big check. I think people forget a pandemic is going on. It feels like life is back to normal, which is why our cases are going through the roof here in AZ.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I agree about the numbers part, it's hard to compare that without uniformity and honesty because that is more science driven I'm not sure why there isn't a uniform way of being able to look at it.

The phases however make a bit more sense to be different. Our states are all different, they were hit differently and at different times and have different characteristics of them. This played out during stay at home orders too. It does make for a confusing discussion with respects to what is open, occupancy and limits on gatherings but I can't see any way around it. I also think in terms of our officials including health officials their response are different which is natural. Even if you had uniformity in the phases not everyone would agree on when they would move on to the next or hold out in the current phase.

I think you're right about the personal experience. Yeesh even having a family member in the NYC metro area I couldn't even imagine how they felt when NYC was at its height of issues..

To be clear, I don’t think states should move in unison through the phases, nor even counties within a state, because as you mentioned, the needs/cases will be different. I just meant more that the phases all include the same things. So when somebody says they’re in phase 2, everybody else knows what that means. Not that everybody moves to phase 2 together.

Obviously it’s on me to research the current restrictions of any place I want to go, but in general it would be nice when talking to other people, that we knew we were all talking about the same thing. It may not be a reality, but I hate when disagreement happens because we’re looking at different things, not because we actually disagree.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I just meant more that the phases all include the same things. So when somebody says they’re in phase 2, everybody else knows what that means.

That's what I was meaning though. How can the phases be the same as in what's exactly included in it when places aren't all the same.

For instance a phase in one state may be reopening manufacturing..except in my state that was considered essential business. Or golf is now allowed in another phase except that was not a prohibited activity under stay at home. Or fishing which was not a prohibited activity under stay at home. Much of the phases are basing off of stay at home orders. Stay at home orders couldn't all be the same either even though it for sure causes confusion.

I think some basic things such as limitations on number of gatherings, capacity levels, etc are much the same but what that number is and what that capacity limit it varies. I think most limit to gatherings started at 10 but have varied a lot after that. Right now we're on Phase 3 with a limit of 45 (Phase 1 was 10, Phase 1.5 was 15, Phase 2 was 30, Phase 3 was 45). We were initially supposed to be in our Phase Out which was no limit but have since been advised at the state level to stick with Phase 3 for 2 more weeks. Whether each county wants to follow the phases or do their own thing is up to them in my state.

But I do think for discussion sake it helps when we include that X wasn't allowed or was allowed on X date. I tried to do that when I could when I was talking about going to my first dine-in experiences as it was over a month from when that was first allowed in my area that I ventured out to do that. To someone else they may not even be allowed inside a restaurant til a different phase entirely even when I was allowed to dine-in. But I know I haven't given all the details every time I've mentioned something so the perception may be really different to different people when they read about someone's post and compare it to their own.

I'm def. not disagreeing with you I just don't think it ever could have been the same but with that unfortunately comes the confusion and differences in experiences and perception no doubt about that.

 

[Josh125]

I live in the Houston area which has uncontrolled spread - things are not looking good. Texas Children's Hospital which is a premiere pediatric hospital is now admitting adult patients to help with the overflow. Texas as a whole seems to be locked in a race to the bottom with Florida, Arizona, and to a lesser extent California.

 

[godisney14]

5511 new cases in FL today. Off the charts. That’s crazy.

Psshh...
CA says “Hold my beer.”
Over 6,500 new cases yesterday.

To be clear, I don’t think states should move in unison through the phases, nor even counties within a state, because as you mentioned, the needs/cases will be different. I just meant more that the phases all include the same things. So when somebody says they’re in phase 2, everybody else knows what that means. Not that everybody moves to phase 2 together.

Obviously it’s on me to research the current restrictions of any place I want to go, but in general it would be nice when talking to other people, that we knew we were all talking about the same thing. It may not be a reality, but I hate when disagreement happens because we’re looking at different things, not because we actually disagree.

Yea, maybe in our next lifetime we will have some kind of standard way of measuring and doing things across all 50 states. There are still some governors that think masks are not that necessary.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

That's what I was meaning though. How can the phases be the same as in what's exactly included in it when places aren't all the same.

For instance a phase in one state may be reopening manufacturing..except in my state that was considered essential business. Or golf is now allowed in another phase except that was not a prohibited activity under stay at home. Or fishing which was not a prohibited activity under stay at home. Much of the phases are basing off of stay at home orders. Stay at home orders couldn't all be the same either even though it for sure causes confusion.

I think some basic things such as limitations on number of gatherings, capacity levels, etc are much the same but what that number is and what that capacity limit it varies. I think most limit to gatherings started at 10 but have varied a lot after that. Right now we're on Phase 3 with a limit of 45 (Phase 1 was 10, Phase 1.5 was 15, Phase 2 was 30, Phase 3 was 45). We were initially supposed to be in our Phase Out which was no limit but have since been advised at the state level to stick with Phase 3 for 2 more weeks. Whether each county wants to follow the phases or do their own thing is up to them in my state.

But I do think for discussion sake it helps when we include that X wasn't allowed or was allowed on X date. I tried to do that when I could when I was talking about going to my first dine-in experiences as it was over a month from when that was first allowed in my area that I ventured out to do that. To someone else they may not even be allowed inside a restaurant til a different phase entirely even when I was allowed to dine-in. But I know I haven't given all the details every time I've mentioned something so the perception may be really different to different people when they read about someone's post and compare it to their own.

I get what you’re saying and I agree, which is why I said it probably wasn’t doable in reality. Just that it would be nice!

I also haven’t always given complete context to what our rules are, so I’m guilty of that as well. And in the Bay Area our rules are all over the place! We’re not allowed social bubbles of any size, but everything is open. Some of our surrounding counties are allowed social bubbles up to 12, but only half of their stuff is open. At least here, the varying rules just end up confusing everybody.

 

[gwynne]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275818007328182273

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I get what you’re saying and I agree, which is why I said it probably wasn’t doable in reality. Just that it would be nice!

I also haven’t always given complete context to what our rules are, so I’m guilty of that as well. And in the Bay Area our rules are all over the place! We’re not allowed social bubbles of any size, but everything is open. Some of our surrounding counties are allowed social bubbles up to 12, but only half of their stuff is open. At least here, the varying rules just end up confusing everybody.

I think in my metro the varying rules caused a lot of confusion in the beginning but it seems to have settled out. There are still differences but they aren't quite as stark as they were when we had the stay at home orders (more the dates were all over the place in the metro) and at the beginning of the reopening with the different capacity limits mostly related to restaurants.

That sounds really confusing though in your area regarding social bubbles and places opened up- like in one area sure have a small gathering but do it mostly at home I guess and in another area don't have a small gathering but you're free to go out if you want to. Yeah I could see that creating confusion for sure!

 

[skyblue17]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275818007328182273

Good. These states took action long ago and a lot of residents have complied with restrictions and guidelines to get things under control. People who live in these states shouldn't be put at risk because other states couldn't get it together in a timely fashion.

It's so frustrating though. From the beginning, if everyone had been on the same page, things wouldn't have had to get like this.

 

[sam_gordon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275818007328182273

That statement doesn't make sense. The "infection rate" is a percentage. So how can the infection rate be a percentage of the population? For example, Texas' population is 29 million. 10% of that is 2.9million. So how can the infection rate be 2.9 million?

 

[gwynne]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275821532573507585

 

[hsmamato2]

Psshh...
CA says “Hold my beer.”
Over 6,500 new cases yesterday.




Yea, maybe in our next lifetime we will have some kind of standard way of measuring and doing things across all 50 states. There are still some governors that think masks are not that necessary.

and here's where I have a problem...... take example of Italy. They locked down as a country. Across the board to get this under manageable control. To take things 'state by state' like we're all our own little kingdoms here is a big mistake IMHO. B/C what's happening now is going to continue....one state is "bad",another state is 'good' but it doesn't matter overall b/c people are allowed to move freely back and forth,here and there among each state!
I 100% realize that not all places in the US are getting hit hard, but an 'across the board' sort of plan would limit a lot of the rolling cases that we're seeing.
If I lived in NY state in April, I could EASILY drive to any other state to vacation (just b/c I wanted to) and vice versa in June/July- If I live in FL,it's really easy for me to vacation anywhere else,since there's no blanket policy about movement thru states,etc.SO I can spread that love when I visit Missouri,etc etc etc.... And each little area of our country (each state) makes it's own rules for safety. (or not,as the case has been)

 

[lorimay]

Over 5,000 in Florida in the last 24 hours...... its so bad.

 

[msjprincess]

and here's where I have a problem...... take example of Italy. They locked down as a country. Across the board to get this under manageable control. To take things 'state by state' like we're all our own little kingdoms here is a big mistake IMHO. B/C what's happening now is going to continue....one state is "bad",another state is 'good' but it doesn't matter overall b/c people are allowed to move freely back and forth,here and there among each state!
I 100% realize that not all places in the US are getting hit hard, but an 'across the board' sort of plan would limit a lot of the rolling cases that we're seeing.
If I lived in NY state in April, I could EASILY drive to any other state to vacation (just b/c I wanted to) and vice versa in June/July- If I live in FL,it's really easy for me to vacation anywhere else,since there's no blanket policy about movement thru states,etc.SO I can spread that love when I visit Missouri,etc etc etc.... And each little area of our country (each state) makes it's own rules for safety. (or not,as the case has been)

I agree. It seemed obvious that's this is what was going to happen.

I see so many of my friends in Florida going about their business as usual on social media. Large groups of people, taking tons of pictures hugging each other. It makes me cringe. And these are all people originally from NYC/LI so they know people that have lost loved ones.

 

[wombat_5606]

That statement doesn't make sense. The "infection rate" is a percentage. So how can the infection rate be a percentage of the population? For example, Texas' population is 29 million. 10% of that is 2.9million. So how can the infection rate be 2.9 million?

I'm following a site that gives me that calculation.

https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/#notes

 

[RamblingMad]

I agree. It seemed obvious that's this is what was going to happen.

I see so many of my friends in Florida going about their business as usual on social media. Large groups of people, taking tons of pictures hugging each other. It makes me cringe. And these are all people originally from NYC/LI so they know people that have lost loved ones.

This is what I see locally too. This virus is on fire. I hope the treatment options make it less deadly.

 

[sam_gordon]

I'm following a site that gives me that calculation.

https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/#notes

Please show me an example. I called up Texas. Here's their positive rate:


Texas population is 29 million. So what is the infection rate that would trigger the mandatory quarantine? 2.9%? The comparison doesn't make sense (in that tweet). According to the tweet, "where infection rate is 10% of population". 10% of Texas' population is 2.9 million.