Cases rising or dropping by you?

[godisney14]

I wish more people could understand this. More cases isn’t always a bad thing - and to be expected since we were never in a position to eliminate the virus. Looking at hospitalizations and deaths is what matters.



I know most people can figure it out, but you need to put some context with those numbers. CA is a state with 39.5 million people. That total case load, while high in numbers, is still very small in percentage.


In CA they are. Anybody who wants a test, can get a test.

CA is in the top 5 in total cases and top 20 in total cases/M. It’s still considered very small to you? I can’t imagine what you might think of other states then?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

So it’s takes 5 days to show symptoms and a couple more days to receive your test results. There’s going to be a lag.

Who are you talking to with your comment?

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

CA is in the top 5 in total cases and top 20 in total cases/M. It’s still considered very small to you? I can’t imagine what you might think of other states then?

In case load or percentage? Comparing CA to some place like ND is comparing apples to oranges. You HAVE to look at it as percentages because our population is so much greater. But yes, 0.3% of the population in case loads and 0.01% in deaths is very small to me.

 

[disneychrista]

It's hard to tell here. In my county our cases went from about 4 a day to 15 a day. But our testing went from about 200 a day to 1200 a day

Our testing has gone up too. But all of the cases from Mothers Day were from a single mother’s day’s gathering. For the past several weeks all the new cases were from symptomatic people. Not the surveillance testing. So far we have only had 2 positives from surveillance.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Our testing has gone up too. But all of the cases from Mothers Day were from a single mother’s day’s gathering. For the past several weeks all the new cases were from symptomatic people. Not the surveillance testing. So far we have only had 2 positives from surveillance.

That's too bad. Hopefully the contract tracing from that party has helped it from spreading too much further.

One of our daily spikes of 7 new cases, was an entire family. Aunt & uncle moved in and infected the rest of the household. It's terrible, but also contained.

I don't know which threads I've mentioned it on, if any, but our dashboard does really weird things that I have yet to figure out. One day, we had 15 news cases, but none were put into new active and all were put into recovered. And then one day we had 71 cases move from active to recovered after no movement for quite a while. Obviously that was some sort of backlog, but it makes me question when we get something like 15 new cases in a day, if they're really new cases or some lab just sending info in.

I was just reading this morning that DC expects a surge in numbers, but that it will be almost completely from a backlog of tests.

 

[chickapin parterre]

Imperial county, California, the far east boundary is spiking really fast due to access to Mexico and culture of family travel from LA area, that is now spreading into metropolitan yuma, AZ, spiking, but not as fast..... for this being in the middle of nowhere, it is scary.

 

[mom2rtk]

Ah, so people who didn't lose income or health insurance are back to berating those who did and need their businesses opened up so they can earn those things for their families. And trying to claim a moral high ground. Lovely.

 

[VandVsmama]

Ah, so people who didn't lose income or health insurance are back to berating those who did and need their businesses opened up so they can earn those things for their families. And trying to claim a moral high ground. Lovely.

Pretty much, yes.

 

[godisney14]

Ah, so people who didn't lose income or health insurance are back to berating those who did and need their businesses opened up so they can earn those things for their families. And trying to claim a moral high ground. Lovely.

Seems like you’re in the wrong thread.

 

[jlmarr]

Orange County CA: still trending up - hospitalizations (293) and patients in ICU (129) hit a new high for the county. Not nearly as bad as adjacent LA County though.

Nine deaths reported today and a new county-high of 296 new cases reported. Local epidemiologist says 16% of the county-wide deaths have occurred in the last 4 days. Also says 48% of deaths in county are from skilled nursing facilities.

 

[goodeats]

Nine deaths reported today and a new county-high of 296 new cases reported. Local epidemiologist says 16% of the county-wide deaths have occurred in the last 4 days. Also says 48% of deaths in county are from skilled nursing facilities.

We've had 27 deaths over the last 4 days and 23 of those were from the SNFs. Whatever Orange County is doing to protect the SNF is not working.

 

[ronandannette]

Maybe Canada has a lower threshold for admitting patients into the hospital, whereas here they’re sent home to ride out the illness? If mild cases were included in the hospital counts then the percentage requiring ICU care would be lower than if the hospital was only admitting moderate-to-severe cases. I have no idea if this is true, it’s just one explanation I could think of.

What actually occurred to me after you inspired the thought is just the opposite. Here in Canada we have not hospitalized very many of the elderly. The ones in care facilities that contracted Covid have been in strict lock-down and treated in place. None in those settings would have had true ICU-level intervention. That, undeniably, is the reason why almost 80% of our mortality has been elderly people inside those places.

 

[mom2rtk]

Seems like you’re in the wrong thread.

Nope.

 

[RamblingMad]

I just saw CA cases: 3600.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

 

[DisLiss]

We just saw a minor spike, which many guess has to do with the crowds who were all out on Memorial Day despite our are still being under stay-at-home orders at the time.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I just saw CA cases: 3600.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

Yes, but daily deaths are overall trending downwards. Of course deaths will lag behind cases, so the next few weeks will be some to watch, but again, new cases aren’t always bad as headlines make them out to be! And it’s still only a 2.6% increase.

It’s definitely something that shouldn’t be ignored, but it’s also not as dire as some would want to believe.

CA is opening up at a fairly rapid rate, going from phase 2 to phase 3 (likely by next Friday), in just about a month. After being super conservative. Cases are going to rise! Remember we’re a state of 39.5 million people.

ETA:Here is CA’s dashboard for anybody curious
https://update.covid19.ca.gov/#top

 

[disneychrista]

CA is opening up at a fairly rapid rate, going from phase 2 to phase 3 (likely by next Friday), in just about a month. After being super conservative. Cases are going to rise! Remember we’re a state of 39.5 million people.

California is opening TOO QUICKLY in my opinion.

However, my understanding is that we are not opening full phase 3 next week, just opening SOME of the phase 3 businesses. Similar to allowing hair salons, barber and churches a couple weeks ago. Theaters, casinos and other entertainment venues that are also part of phase 3 have not gotten the okay to open (yet). I think phase 3 is being done in multiple stages, just like phase 2 was.

 

[Colleen27]

Same with Mother’s Day. They expected a rise but Our admissions never went up at the hospital I work for. They actually went down.

And Easter. And elections. And the protests to reopen. Every week there's something that is predicted to cause a spike.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

California is opening TOO QUICKLY in my opinion.

However, my understanding is that we are not opening full phase 3 next week, just opening SOME of the phase 3 businesses. Similar to allowing hair salons, barber and churches a couple weeks ago. Theaters, casinos and other entertainment venues that are also part of phase 3 have not gotten the okay to open (yet). I think phase 3 is being done in multiple stages, just like phase 2 was.

We will have to agree to disagree on the rate the state is opening. I agree with his decision to not let certain counties open further, but for the majority of the state, there is no reason not too. Just under 50% of the cases are in Los Angeles County. It seems unreasonable to keep the entire state shut down for that.

You’re right, I should have used into phase 3. But my point was more that we were in phase 1 for 2 months and have moved through all of phase 2 in a month. It stands to reason cases will rise. Nothing has risen exponentially with those openings, in my opinion.

Remember, the goal never was to eliminate the virus, so as long as we aren’t overwhelming hospitals or letting death rates rise exponentially, it’s ok to move along with reopening.

 

[disneychrista]

We will have to agree to disagree on the rate the state is opening.

Remember, the goal never was to eliminate the virus

The opening too quickly is my personal opinion based on my own comfort level. "Everything" could be open and I would still be sticking to the routine I've kept for the past 3 months. Work. Home. Shopping every 2 -3 weeks, as soon as the stores open (at 6am).

I know we can't eliminate the virus. Even with a vaccine the chances of completely eradicating it is not very likely.