By The Numbers... Best case scenario availability will be bad for next 3 years, worst case as much as 9 years

[Sandisw]

Is that true? I admit I’m not an expert on The Walt Disney Company’s corporate structure, but I thought DVD owned RIV (fronted all the capital), and sells to the Resorts Division the undeclared inventory. IOW, DVD would be taking the hit, (along with the resorts division profit.)

That said, again, I’m not super educated in that area.

My understanding is that all undeclared inventory is rented for cash and the profits to Disney. DVD is a division of Disney and not responsible for the inner workings of DVC association.

Any rooms declared into the membership become eligible for points booking and are then subject to the breakage rule.

So, again, this move requires the involvement of someone other than DVCM. That, of course, is not to say that they are not trying to put a plan like this in place, and it certainly would be nice for them to do so.

 

[dismedvc]

It could, as long as Disney agrees to give up the potential loss of revenue from keeping them undeclared.

Key word potential.

My understanding is that all undeclared inventory is rented for cash and the profits to Disney

If those undeclared rooms are not going to be booked by cash customers, no mater how discounted or whatever other incentive Disney offers, then allowing DVC members to book them with expired or expiring points would benefit both sides.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

My understanding is that all undeclared inventory is rented for cash and the profits to Disney. DVD is a division of Disney and not responsible for the inner workings of DVC association.

Any rooms declared into the membership become eligible for points booking and are then subject to the breakage rule.

So, again, this move requires the involvement of someone other than DVCM. That, of course, is not to say that they are not trying to put a plan like this in place, and it certainly would be nice for them to do so.

If DVD owns the undeclared inventory, I would think they can do whatever they want with it.... Unless the have a deal with Resorts Division for X amount of rooms during the sales period.

 

[Sandisw]

If DVD owns the undeclared inventory, I would think they can do whatever they want with it.... Unless the have a deal with Resorts Division for X amount of rooms during the sales period.

DVD is not DVC, They are a Florida corporation.and when rooms are undeclared they are available to be booked on cash that goes to parks and resorts.

We, as owners, even through DVCM, have no control over what DVD does. To get those rooms declared for points use, DVD has to do it and thus, someone other than DVC owner, has to take the financial hit,

 

[Maistre Gracey]

DVD is not DVC, They are a Florida corporation...like parks and resorts..and when rooms are undeclared they are available to be booked on cash that goes to parks and resorts.

We, as owners, even through DVCM, have no control over what DVD does. To get those rooms declared for points use, DVD has to do it and thus, the company has to take the financial hit,

Again, technically, it is all over the POS that DVD nor TWDC have any liability.

Okay. So DVCM may need to strike a deal with DVD. Still a very close relationship I would think. I’m not sure, as I’d need to consult my chart, but might DVCM be a subsidiary of DVD ?

 

[Sandisw]

Okay. So DVCM may need to stoke a deal with DVD. Still a very close relationship I would think. I’m not sure, as I’d need to consult my chart, but might DVCM be a subsidiary of DVD ?

I don’t believe they are, but yes, DVD is in charge of the declaration and the cash that those rooms earn goes to Disney.

What I don’t know is what financial obligations they have for expenses for having an over abundance of points declared for sales,

Normally, they declare as needed, So, there could be not only the loss of income from cash bookings, but could give them more resort expenses including in MFs. That is an aspect I don’t reallt know.

It still comes down to declaring the rooms into points inventory costs someone else to give up money, They certainly can do so, but I am more inclined to think it will happen if they find a reason that it benefits them, not just us.

ETA: DVCM, BVTC, and DVD are all affiliates of TWDC, but are their own entities.

 

[EYL]

Even if Disney made it available, there’s significant challenges to just opening points at Riviera.

1) The pool opened is only eligible to blue card members, and Riviera home resorts. How many points would not be eligible here?

Wouldn't the pool include those who bought resale prior to these January 19, 2019 restrictions as well? If it does, then only those who bought resale afterwards wouldn't be able to book Riviera. The attraction of Riviera could release inventory at the L14 for those who cannot book there.

 

[sethschroeder]

And it's not even unethical or evil, it is what it is. They do not have to do anything, as many have said in other threads, this is a Timeshare, buying we have accepted

Not true because they should only be taking breakage if rooms are not being rented. If they are and Disney forcing an even further shortage I would say that would be illegal at that point which then starts to blur the line to unethical since they should see this increase of booked rooms coming now.

 

[Sandisw]

Not true because they should only be taking breakage if rooms are not being rented. If they are and Disney forcing an even further shortage I would say that would be illegal at that point which then starts to blur the line to unethical since they should see this increase of booked rooms coming now.

They are allowed to take rooms based on trends. The contract specifically allows for that, so rooms can be taken at any time, even before the 60 day official window.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Wouldn't the pool include those who bought resale prior to these January 19, 2019 restrictions as well? If it does, then only those who bought resale afterwards wouldn't be able to book Riviera. The attraction of Riviera could release inventory at the L14 for those who cannot book there.

It would. So it really would likely be a minority of points at this time ineligible to be used at RIV. That restriction was a long game.

 

[sethschroeder]

They are allowed to take rooms based on trends. The contract specifically allows for that, so rooms can be taken at any time, even before the 60 day official window.

Correct but I suspect there is some language on trends being used to predict empty rooms.

Well in data analysis you would be working with a completely new data set post COVID19. If rooms are being 100% booked at 11 months across all resorts as an example then proactively taking rooms needs to be reduced or eliminated if you are doing a best effort to adjust your trends prediction.

I am simply pointing out that yes there does need to be something done likely from Disney's side. That being they need to adjust that breakage calculation.

 

[Sandisw]

Correct but I suspect there is some language on trends being used to predict empty rooms.

Well in data analysis you would be working with a completely new data set post COVID19. If rooms are being 100% booked at 11 months across all resorts as an example then proactively taking rooms needs to be reduced or eliminated if you are doing a best effort to adjust your trends prediction.

I am simply pointing out that yes there does need to be something done likely from Disney's side. That being they need to adjust that breakage calculation.

Got it, Yes, I am going to bet that we could indeed see fewer rooms show up on Disney site and back for points booking.

 

[zavandor]

Not true because they should only be taking breakage if rooms are not being rented. If they are and Disney forcing an even further shortage I would say that would be illegal at that point which then starts to blur the line to unethical since they should see this increase of booked rooms coming now.

The OP already counted the points generated by the lockoff premium as used to reduce the excess being generated with the resort closure.
I think it's a given that DVC should stop pre-booking rooms for breakage due to older trends. This is something the DVCMC should do.
My post is about if the Disney Corporation should do something more, spending money (or forgoing potential revenue) to mitigate the impact for DVC members. They are not obliged by any law but they may find it's convenient for them to do so.

 

[sethschroeder]

The OP already counted the points generated by the lockoff premium as used to reduce the excess being generated with the resort closure.
I think it's a given that DVC should stop pre-booking rooms for breakage due to older trends. This is something the DVCMC should do.
My post is about if the Disney Corporation should do something more, spending money (or forgoing potential revenue) to mitigate the impact for DVC members. They are not obliged by any law but they may find it's convenient for them to do so.

Except you stated "do nothing". Disney (DVC) is very much giving up profit and proactively changing its model to stop pre-booking rooms on the cash side. They very likely could get away with it if they wanted. So while its not exactly the same as "pay $10,000" they are "losing $10,000".

 

[sethschroeder]

The math will not be completely accurate as we are going through the more expensive times of the year.

As an example (based on BWV 2BR Std View)
9.7% of points have happened between March 16th and April 13th (7.9% of year)
15.4% of points will happen between March 16th and May 1st (12.6% of year)
24.1% of points will happen between March 16th and June 1st (21% of year)
32.8% of points will happen between March 16th and July 1st (29.3% of year)

I probably could get a good grasp on BWV if I take a little time to update my data.

 

[Tony]

Great analysis. A couple of things that i'd suggest might need to be added....

1) Wastage - how many points naturally expire each year because people don't use them? I accept it's not going to be many, but just a few across all the contracts could take a sizeable chunk out of this. https://www.disboards.com/threads/total-number-of-dvc-members.3383993/ suggests there were almost 200k contracts 5years ago. An average 10 points per contract (unused, natural wastage because people no show at the last minute etc) would be meaningful.

2) The cash savings to DVC from the extended closure. Staff have been furloughed and - probably most critically - there's no wear and tear on the apartments so refurb schedules can be pushed back accordingly. Appreciate the savings will be modest and know there are still fixed costs, but the option proposed in the first post which would see DVC not sell the villas for cash could become even more palatable if the costs can be lowered.

 

[tellingson]

Something else to consider, if too many points are floating on the market (lack of availability), they can delay resort refurbishments to give those points a place to go. In the future, they can just not close as many units at the same time and that will let them absorb any additional surplus without affecting members in the long term.

I'm fairly confident that they already did that at Saratoga Springs considering that there is complete availability there right now.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

1) Wastage - how many points naturally expire each year because people don't use them?

What about contracts that are listed for sale?

Current/banked points might expire before the contract sells (or even if it closes before they do, the new owner still has to book dates for a stay that will occur before they expire. I haven't seen many, but I do recall seeing a few contracts for sale in the past where I was scratching my head about them touting the banked points (that were almost certainly going to be lost because they would expire before the new owner can use them). Maybe those contracts were listed when those banked points still had more shelf life and just languished with no buyer until they became that "stale."

One would assume that an owner looking to sell would arrange their points strategically, but if they have points set to expire, it doesn't seem likely that the owners would be able to go back in and use those points if the contract doesn't sell as quickly as they'd hoped.

Can they even do that? I think that would mean they have to postpone closing until after their stay, correct? It seems like few people selling would go that route, which might result in some points expiring due to "natural causes."

 

[Sandisw]

What about contracts that are listed for sale?

Current/banked points might expire before the contract sells (or even if it closes before they do, the new owner still has to book dates for a stay that will occur before they expire. I haven't seen many, but I do recall seeing a few contracts for sale in the past where I was scratching my head about them touting the banked points (that were almost certainly going to be lost because they would expire before the new owner can use them). Maybe those contracts were listed when those banked points still had more shelf life and just languished with no buyer until they became that "stale."

One would assume that an owner looking to sell would arrange their points strategically, but if they have points set to expire, it doesn't seem likely that the owners would be able to go back in and use those points if the contract doesn't sell as quickly as they'd hoped.

Can they even do that? I think that would mean they have to postpone closing until after their stay, correct? It seems like few people selling would go that route, which might result in some points expiring due to "natural causes."

Once a contract goes to ROFR they can not use the contract and if they do, they have to pay for missing points at closing.

If one has it for sale and decides to use points while waiting, then they have to update the listing,

I just did this. My BWV contract went up and then I ended up transferring points out. Called up and adjusted the listing.

 

[Wakey]

Disney are opening up cash rooms, now, in the likes of SSR for 2021 in the UK market. Someone on another board only the other day was saying he had been waiting for an SSR cash option, and it had just opened.
Disney need to immediately stop any cash bookings at any DVC resort in my view. They need to share the pain with members who are losing lots of points they have paid dues on- some of those dues going to a subsidiary company of Disney to run the club!