By The Numbers... Best case scenario availability will be bad for next 3 years, worst case as much as 9 years

[LawrenceFamily]

I see the point you are making, but I think it is flawed. The points and inventory being affected from this closure have an expiration date. There will no doubt be reduced availability from people banking their points into next year and DVC putting borrowed points back into their original UY. But the reduced availability will end once those particular points are either used or expired, which is either next year or the following year (following year for returned borrowed points that are possibly then banked into the UY that is two years from now). Once those points are gone, they're gone. The system will be back to normal. Now, if people were allowed to keep banking points indefinitely then there would absolutely be reduced availability for more than 2 years from now...even going to maybe 9 years like the OP stated. But that's not how the system works. The points that are being affected by this closure have a shelf life and can only affect availability during that shelf life, which is no more than two years down the road.

You're definitely missing the point that there's not going to be enough availability next year for all DVC members who bank their points this year to use this years points AND next years points. So people will use this years banked points next year and then bank next years points to 2022. This cycle has the opportunity to continue for years and years, providing that availability is lower than the amount of points in circulation. As others have said, if more people try for longer stays next year, in an attempt to use their banked points from this year then availability to use 2021 points will decrease and more banking will happen.

What's also important to understand is that this problem isn't fixed by the end of May. There will be millions of points for the rest of 2020 that are banked into 2021 due to uncertainty of safety and people not wanting to visit Disney this year if social distancing measures are in place and parks are not opened to the full capacity. We've cancelled our August 2020 trip for this reason. This will have significant impact on availability next year and beyond because there wont be enough rooms for the amount of points and people will have no choice but to bank.

As others have said, I believe that for the next few years, at least, unless you're going in low season, it's likely that we'll only be able to get availability at home resort.