Buying Strategy Question - GFV and BCV content (I think)

[CarolMN]

Having three contracts for 150 points each allows us to split the contracts to each of our three kids down the line in a clean manner

May not matter, but assuming the contracts pass to the kids via inheritance or gift, the one who gets Aulani will also qualify for direct purchase perks ( blue card benefits). The other two will not.

 

[RoseGold]

I almost never say this, but you might be a good fit for RIV for some of the points.

You are pretty sure you and/or your Disney-die hard adult kids will use the points and want the contract for the whole 50 years, you can use the points at the future resorts, you don't really care about the resale restrictions in the end, and Epcot is the currently expanding park. After 2024 resorts go cash, RIV will be the only one there.

I would pick RIV over Aulani because it is a longer term, and I trust timeshare laws (and Disney operations) more in Florida JMO. And I would vacation somewhere nicer and more adult if I were to go to Hawaii.

 

[sethschroeder]

After 2024 resorts go cash

What?

Do you mean 2042? Also at that point I would put my bet that there is another DVC offering. We might even get a Yacht Club DVC in the next 20 years as well.

Maybe BCV or BWV gets smaller or removed but if Disney has proven anything they want to expand DVC and this year has proven DVC is a great insulator.

I would see something like 2030 Yatch Club Villas and then in 2042 they redo BWV while disbanding BCV in to cash rooms. This spreads out the Epcot flip and removes a resort from the 2042 expiration (BWV, BCV, BRV, OKW).

 

[RoseGold]

Do you mean 2042? Also at that point I would put my bet that there is another DVC offering. We might even get a Yacht Club DVC in the next 20 years as well.

Watch. Beach Club and Boardwalk are too well located. They go cash and DVC builds some garbage generic hotel (European!!!) on the third gondola line which is always shut down by FL rain. Those properties are too valuable to leave in the DVC system.

 

[sethschroeder]

Those properties are too valuable to leave in the DVC system.

Thats why in the last 10 years they built BLT, flipped part of POLY, and flipped part of the flagship GF right?

If anything right now they are learning once again why they stopped building hotels over the last 10 years and pretty much only built or converted things to DVC.

 

[Spark65]

Thats why in the last 10 years they built BLT, flipped part of POLY, and flipped part of the flagship GF right?

If anything right now they are learning once again why they stopped building hotels over the last 10 years and pretty much only built or converted things to DVC.

How does the star wars themed hotel fit your description then? I have also read occupancy was not being filled at POLY and Bay Lake Tower and that was the reason for the conversions but that could have been economy driven at the time. People who own a time share will still use it in a down economy or rent it so it's being used but to spend extra money on a hotel/vacation is usually out of the equation.

 

[RoseGold]

DVC could have built BLT2 or DVC Yacht Club, but they didn't.

They built a nothing themed Marriott next to nothing on the gondolas. Reflections isn't exactly prime real estate either.

 

[sethschroeder]

How does the star wars themed hotel fit your description then? I have also read occupancy was not being filled at POLY and Bay Lake Tower and that was the reason for the conversions but that could have been economy driven at the time. People who own a time share will still use it in a down economy or rent it so it's being used but to spend extra money on a hotel/vacation is usually out of the equation.

Its not a hotel its an experience. Disney is adding a premium experience to the parks with a tiny footprint. They are talking about less than 100 rooms that are locked in for 3 days I think it was (2 nights) and will be over $1000 per person so basically $1000/night at minimum.

 

[sethschroeder]

DVC could have built BLT2 or DVC Yacht Club, but they didn't.

They built a nothing themed Marriott next to nothing on the gondolas. Reflections isn't exactly prime real estate either.

Because it was extra real estate that they wanted to fill in and would be easy to make "park adjacent". They can't exclusively build right next to the park. They want these other locations driving money as well.

They could have built extra cash rooms near the parks and they basically have not built really anything on the cash side since the last economic issues a decade ago.

 

[davidl81]

Watch. Beach Club and Boardwalk are too well located. They go cash and DVC builds some garbage generic hotel (European!!!) on the third gondola line which is always shut down by FL rain. Those properties are too valuable to leave in the DVC system.

I would bet almost anything that BWV stays a DVC resort after 2042 (assuming things are back to normal etc). They do a big refresh, maybe add another feature pool etc and sell them again. The big question I guess is at that point the building is what 50 years old, so can they can get away selling a timeshare in that same building for another 50 years (ie the building will be 100 years old at the expatriation of the 2nd deed)? I have no idea about that part.
But seems like to me it would be super easy for Disney to basically do a room renovation and maybe sell 30 year plans for those rooms and be at a little cheaper price point hen what ever brand new build they have at the time.

 

[sethschroeder]

same building for another 50 years

I think that is a selling point

But also not from FL so not sure if there is structural issues with older buildings.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Wow, so much to learn and so many things to consider. I thought I would try to just post the basics of what I think I know and my basic profile/preferences to see if I am on the right track or what better thoughts might be out there. Apologies in advance for the long post!

We are pretty fortunate after working hard and saving well to be in a nice position financially. Our family of 5 (kids 18-23) have made many, many Disney trips and we probably should have done this years ago. But, with Disney trips still every 18-24 months into our future, new family members (serious boyfriends and girlfriends) and grandkids coming into the clan in probably the next 8-10 years, we still see ourselves visiting frequently for many years to come. As grandparents in the future, we would happily ‘trade down’ into more moderate resorts as the kiddos won’t care and it would get us more days on property.

As our position has improved over the years, we have worked our way up to settling on the Grand Floridian as our preferred resort and typically spend 5 days there, typically taking advantage of weekend days given busy schedules, approx. every 18 months. We typically do the dining plan and food for us is as important as the parks. We don’t eat a ton, but we like to eat pretty well.

We also will typically want to do one nice vacation every other year at a non-Disney location/hotel. I can also see trips every 3-4 years to either Europe or Hawaii also as part of our travel plan in the ‘non Disney’ years. We also live mid-east coast, with some family ties to the Hilton Head area and a son who likes to surf…so Vero Beach and HHI for an occasional getaway are attractive.

We have the fortunate position to be able to spend up to 80k on the initial DVC purchase and are ok with maintenance fees associated with this purchase annually.

So, for our general situation as described above, I’m thinking about a couple of options:

Option 1 – waitlist for a 100 point direct purchase to GFV, with an add on of 250-300 points at GFV through the resale market
Option 1a – just buy 500 points on the resale market for GFV. (Is the value of having direct purchase through Disney for some base points really worth the price difference versus just buying resale? Other than being restricted from Riviera and other future resorts, I'm thinking 100% resale might be the better way to go?)

Option 2 – waitlist for 100 point direct purchase at BOTH GFV and BCV, and then supplement with another total up to our budget for points at GFV (or possibly both) on the resale market.
-I assume that this might give us more flexibility on bookings and maybe even split stays between properties? For example, if GF is booked when we want the time, could we then use the open points easily on transfer to BCV at the 11 month window point?

I am open to other strategies that we should think about in our case if you have ideas! I think we like the ‘lighter décor’ at these resorts versus at places like AKL or the Wilderness Lodge/Polynesian options. Bay Lake Towers might lack the 'Disney Ambiance' that my wife is looking for.

I guess we then take advantage of Tables in Wonderland and maybe Annual Pass holder options to cover the food and ticket option on the years we intend to visit a Disney property? That's a whole new set of stuff to research...ugh.

Many thanks in advance for any other ideas/wisdom that gets passed along. This will be a great family Christmas present if we pull the trigger!

Congratulations on your decision to purchase, I agree it will definately keep the family together and allow for the addition of grandchildren. Now on to your questions - and I am going to answer as an owner of both BCV and GFV who also has a mixture of direct and resale points. First, I would make your 100 direct points as either RR or SSR - RR has the 2070 advantage over the 2054 of SSR. But the only direct benefit we use consistently is the AP pass and the DVC lounge in epcot (which when I go up if there is another member in line without a blue card i just take them up with me
If you will not need the AP discount then its not worth the cost of direct IMO.
Now onto resale. If you are looking at resale: GFV and BC, I would purchase 250 -300 GFV resale; 100 BCV and then 100 SSR to supplement and plug into reservations in the 7 month window. If you want the direct benefits (for me its really just the AP pass -yes we use the DVC lounge in epcot, but if we did not have it it would not be a deal breaker) then I would look at either 100 SSR direct as the supplement for the GFV and BCV points - or buy RR direct but break it into two 50 point contracts the 2070 expiration is a nice deal for your kids and grandkids.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

What?

Do you mean 2042? Also at that point I would put my bet that there is another DVC offering. We might even get a Yacht Club DVC in the next 20 years as well.

Maybe BCV or BWV gets smaller or removed but if Disney has proven anything they want to expand DVC and this year has proven DVC is a great insulator.

I would see something like 2030 Yatch Club Villas and then in 2042 they redo BWV while disbanding BCV in to cash rooms. This spreads out the Epcot flip and removes a resort from the 2042 expiration (BWV, BCV, BRV, OKW).

I really hope they never build a YC DVC. That is a beautiful resort, that should stay as a luxury resort.- there already is the DVC at the BC side.

 

[sethschroeder]

I really hope they never build a YC DVC. That is a beautiful resort, that should stay as a luxury resort.- there already is the DVC at the BC side.

It wouldn't be a new building likely instead it would be a conversion of rooms or switching out the convention center.

I think all convention centers are at risk in the future depending on how businesses possibly change in the future. Many companies might find that spending $10m or $100m on a resort stay and convention was wasteful spending similar to how we might see a reduction in travel in the business world as well.

Personally not counting on my business travel to probably ever be back to 2019 levels.

 

[RoseGold]

think all convention centers are at risk in the future depending on how businesses possibly change in the future. Many companies might find that spending $10m or $100m on a resort stay and convention was wasteful spending similar to how we might see a reduction in travel in the business world as well.

Even before Covid, the convention center by the Contemporary has been a target for these rumors.

What I can see Disney expanding is the sports events. The NBA bubble has really given their sports facilities some visibility.

 

[sethschroeder]

Even before Covid, the convention center by the Contemporary has been a target for these rumors.

What I can see Disney expanding is the sports events. The NBA bubble has really given their sports facilities some visibility.

There isn't much they can expand though. They already have thing like Pop Warner, cheerleading competitions, preseason NCAA tournaments, ect.

Pro sports leagues are not moving actual games to Disney without Disney paying the sports league because there is more money in having the home games. You see the NFL doing neutral games in mega stadiums outside the country in hope of capturing more viewership.

As far as the Contemporary piece I know there are lots of rumors but wonder how credible they are or if its just simply a "it makes sense" theory. I just see them posted but never a reference to Disney actually talking about it. I also think convention centers is like a lite version of DVC where by having these convention centers and so much space you basically are locking in X number or rooms and visitors on an annual basis.