Buy VGC resale now or wait and buy VDH direct?

$225 starts making things interesting between the two properties. Certainly if gets close to $200, will really make one wonder the benefit of blue card -- though they did just announce MM for Disneyland. They will need to really make more west coast offers for VDH to carry a premium.
 
Just watching. We loved VGC when we stayed for the first time in April. I have been agitating for more VGC points and remember when resale prices were just hitting $200 and everyone was aghast. (regrets)
Oh my goodness, yes!! I could never justify buying VGC bc we don’t/won’t visit DL often enough… but I was still tempted when they were $180ish bc that’s where I want to stay when I DO go! I even talked with my hubby about buying there out of speculation (I had a hunch), but he said it would be wiser to buy where we knew we’d stay. I knew he was right, so I bought another WDW property … but then I just watched VGC go up, up, up!! 🤪
 
I know that there are a ton of unknowns with VDH at this point, but I would be interested in hearing peoples thoughts on buying VGC resale instead. A couple of factors are that we will rarely want a studio, with a 2-bedroom being what we are most likely to stay in; and that we really like that the 2-bedrooms at VGC have 3 bathrooms.

The fact that resale prices have come down at VGC make it more enticing, but then not knowning what VDH will do to VGC pricing is also a factor... will it bring prices down even more?

Look forward to input from anyone, but especially those of you who are more DL oriented.
With loads of VGC hitting the resale market & the price getting ever closer to $200pp, I would definitely buy it over VDH bc of the location & your desire to stay in larger accommodations. If you were wanting to stay in the new pods, that would be different. 😉

I personally don’t see VDH sales affecting the resale price of VGC at all… but a mini recession absolutely would!
 
My wife and I had one of our very first dates 17 years ago at Downtown Disney. At some point during the night she took me into the lobby of the Grand Californian to sit in the big comfy chairs so that we could talk and get to know each other better.

On a different night we had a double date with some of her friends and had drinks at an outdoor bar at the Disneyland Hotel that doesn’t exist anymore. We got quite inebriated and went into the gazebo and jokingly pretended to get married. Her friends had a one bedroom at the Grand that night and we ended up crashing on a fold out couch.

They are both special places.
 


With rumors that DVC will finally announce details on VDH "very soon", any guesses on how much farther VGC will fall? I'm also assuming there will be one more price hike up to $230-ish for direct prices by the time the new tower goes on sale.

Any guesses on whether or not DVC might start buying back VGC with the spread between resale and direct prices widening about $65-75pp and maybe wider? The latest ROFR thread here shows a couple of contracts in process for $225 and $247, while about a year ago several small contracts sold for $300+ on the sponsor's site.
 
With rumors that DVC will finally announce details on VDH "very soon", any guesses on how much farther VGC will fall? I'm also assuming there will be one more price hike up to $230-ish for direct prices by the time the new tower goes on sale.

Any guesses on whether or not DVC might start buying back VGC with the spread between resale and direct prices widening about $65-75pp and maybe wider? The latest ROFR thread here shows a couple of contracts in process for $225 and $247, while about a year ago several small contracts sold for $300+ on the sponsor's site.
I'm assuming $225 is not for a small contract, right?

Anyway, I expect that VGC prices will fall a bit more to be slightly higher than or on par with VDH. But VDH will likely be subject to incentives that bring the per point price lower at certain amounts (150, 200, 300 pts)
 


They seem to be raising prices in $5-10 increments. So if they do one more price hike I would say $222-$227 pp when initially released. I wish we had the point charts because that is what is going to determine the level of interest in VDH in my opinion. VGC needs a lot of points and if you bought direct when it first went on sale, overall it felt on par points per night with what they were selling. Riveria went on sale and demanded high amount of points per night plus the initial purchase price was really high. VDH will probably be the most expensive initial price per point of any resort and if a standard view studio is going to be 20 points per night during off season, it is going to be an expensive contract. At that point, I would rather get a VGC contract with a relatively similar price per point and stay in a studio that could possibly have a premium view for only 17 points during the off season. This might keep the prices of VGC contracts rather high.

These are just from my observations. Hoping that it is not my nightmare situation. I would really consider a contract at VDH if during the low season a studio is around 15 points for standard view (guessing that there will be s/p views), 30 points for 1 bedroom and 40-45 points for a 2-bedroom. This is about the point charts for Bay Lake Tower
 
I cannot imagine VDH will be more expensive than VGC, personally. I'd expect a Riviera like chart, unless they are totally out to lunch. Meaning preferred views are similar to VGC and standard views carry the discount.

VGC also doubled in the pandemic. The 300$ pricing was way out of whack with reality. Considering VGC had contracts going for even in the 150's in 2019, a slight premium over VGF seems a logical place for it to land.
 
At that point, I would rather get a VGC contract with a relatively similar price per point and stay in a studio that could possibly have a premium view for only 17 points during the off season. This might keep the prices of VGC contracts rather high.
With a currently lower resale price for VGC the buyer has new choices to make. VDH is cheaper in price with a longer contract length... but it overlooks car parks and suburbia. Amenities at DLH may now be stretched. VGC is more expensive with fewer years ...but it is the flagship with balconies, amenities, and views. It will be interesting to see if VDH piques interest in VGC too.

VGC also doubled in the pandemic. The 300$ pricing was way out of whack with reality. Considering VGC had contracts going for even in the 150's in 2019, a slight premium over VGF seems a logical place for it to land.
....and yet people paid it. I am sceptical VGC will drop that low, who knows maybe. DL will only have two DVC locations and is a different market to WDW. It's so small I think it can hold on to a boutique price reflecting that. Its the only successfully themed DL hotel. I agree that no doubt VDH will be cheaper than VGC.
 
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They seem to be raising prices in $5-10 increments. So if they do one more price hike I would say $222-$227 pp when initially released. I wish we had the point charts because that is what is going to determine the level of interest in VDH in my opinion. VGC needs a lot of points and if you bought direct when it first went on sale, overall it felt on par points per night with what they were selling. Riveria went on sale and demanded high amount of points per night plus the initial purchase price was really high. VDH will probably be the most expensive initial price per point of any resort and if a standard view studio is going to be 20 points per night during off season, it is going to be an expensive contract. At that point, I would rather get a VGC contract with a relatively similar price per point and stay in a studio that could possibly have a premium view for only 17 points during the off season. This might keep the prices of VGC contracts rather high.

These are just from my observations. Hoping that it is not my nightmare situation. I would really consider a contract at VDH if during the low season a studio is around 15 points for standard view (guessing that there will be s/p views), 30 points for 1 bedroom and 40-45 points for a 2-bedroom. This is about the point charts for Bay Lake Tower
I agree that VDH points chart will be the critical factor. Point charts have historically trended up with new resorts but in the case of VGC/VDH, the respective rack rates might play a role. GCH has always been ~30%ish more expensive that DLH. By that logic, it’s hard to see VDH having a higher points chart than VGC. On the flip side, Riviera’s chart surprised most in comparison to BCV/BWV, primarily justified by the sheer newness of the resort. I don’t know. Wish they’d release the chart already. Surely they know it by now! WRT pricing, my money is at $225pp, with small incentives starting at 150 points. So most people looking to buy small contracts will haveto pay full price and spend $11-17k for a 50-75 point contract. That is steep! I’d rather buy more resale VGC or Aulani subsidized at that rate.
 
I cannot imagine VDH will be more expensive than VGC, personally. I'd expect a Riviera like chart, unless they are totally out to lunch. Meaning preferred views are similar to VGC and standard views carry the discount.

VGC also doubled in the pandemic. The 300$ pricing was way out of whack with reality. Considering VGC had contracts going for even in the 150's in 2019, a slight premium over VGF seems a logical place for it to land.

I think the wildcard here is the cash rates and inventory at the Grand Cal. They have gone bonkers in the past few years and I have no hope for them going down by any reasonable amount. The Grand Cal sells its rooms very well and good luck trying to find a suite for any amount at some times. There are just that many people in California and the area who make mid/high 6 figures (well north of 250k+) who don't blink at spending 2k a night on a suite for their family to have a fun night at Disneyland for a few days. I like to avoid saying DVC is an investment (it's really not), but the DVC points/price at VGC is a good value even at 250 ish a point. I was happy to get mine at 245 a point and if they dipped even lower I'd struggle to not grab a few more.

Really looking forward to the point chart and incentives at VDH... We should know soon :)
 
VDH - list price $217 with incentives to get to $180-190 would be my guess.

We got into VGC 2020 below $200pp; nice to see VGC back to $220s for a few contracts now. If it drops further, it'll be really interesting for us.

Being non blue card we have been looking at VDH to get this; but experience like recent MM doesn't make us hot to get blue card if VGC drops further or if VDH price chart is VGC level.
 
VDH - list price $217 with incentives to get to $180-190 would be my guess.

We got into VGC 2020 below $200pp; nice to see VGC back to $220s for a few contracts now. If it drops further, it'll be really interesting for us.

Being non blue card we have been looking at VDH to get this; but experience like recent MM doesn't make us hot to get blue card if VGC drops further or if VDH price chart is VGC level.

I’m going to be very interested to see if VDH has availability at 7m window or if it ends up like VGC, where you have to own directly or compete against SSR scalpers who rent confirmed reservations out like a business.
 
I’m going to be very interested to see if VDH has availability at 7m window or if it ends up like VGC, where you have to own directly or compete against SSR scalpers who rent confirmed reservations out like a business.
SSR scalpers who rent confirmed reservations as a business? Lol.
Ie - a 7 month trade into a resort not owned at.
 
I’m going to be very interested to see if VDH has availability at 7m window or if it ends up like VGC, where you have to own directly or compete against SSR scalpers who rent confirmed reservations out like a business.
I think 7 month availability at VDH will be pretty good at first, since Disney usually declares more inventory than sold at the beginning. In the long term, hard to say. It will all depend on how VDH owners use their points. If they use it strictly at VDH, then it’ll probably mirror that of VGC.
 
SSR scalpers who rent confirmed reservations as a business? Lol.
Ie - a 7 month trade into a resort not owned at.

When people continually try to book reservations at VGH solely for the purpose of renting it out and not to stay there or because they have identified a person before hand who wants to stay there….I would like for you to tell me the difference between that business model and a scalper…
 
When people continually try to book reservations at VGH solely for the purpose of renting it out and not to stay there or because they have identified a person before hand who wants to stay there….I would like for you to tell me the difference between that business model and a scalper…

In my mind, scalpers typically do not have the right to do it and in this case, owners have every right to book and rent
 

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