BLT Final Sellout Phase

[JimMIA]

Silly question here. However if I buy a 50 pt contract at BLT how does this work to get a week at the 11 month window? I have 200 pts with GCV. Can I transfer the points to the BLT contract to make reservations? Thanks in advance. We are still new just bought last summer.

The absolute maximum number of points you could put together at 11 months with just a 50 point contract is 150 -- 50 banked, 50 from the current year of the reservation, and 50 borrowed.

If you could get a reservation you wanted at 7 months, you could add in your Grand Californian points, but not before.

 

[ToddyLu]

Of course you could book 4 days at VGC, then fly to Orlando and WDW and spend a couple of nights at BLT--so you could in theory book a split stay at 11 months....just sayin'


That would be a freakin awesome trip in my book.

 

[Shleedogg]

I have to agree with your husband on that one. You probably should have just got BLT. If you are only purchasing 30 points, that is not going to get you much at BC or BW. It does you no good to have the 11 month window if you don't have enough points to do anything with them. Unless of course you thought that by having points at another resort, you would be able to use all of your points at the 11 month window. You can only use the points you own for that particular resort at the 11 month window, not both of the resorts combined. You can only combine them at 7 months. You may already know this, but thought I would give you the info just in case you didn't.

Thanks , I did though. My thought was to use the 11 month booking window and stay there every 2-3 yrs with banking and/or borrowing.

In the end we talked about it more and decided to wait on an add-on. Our points are a little tight right now and we're in a constant borrow because of taking family last March but we can still make it work. If we hold off on points, we can re-do the kitchen. In the end, I'd rather stick to studios for the next year or so and finally not have a ghetto kitchen.

 

[Phambiton]

I couldn't find any posts on this, but got an email from my guide today that BLT has officially entered the final phase before sellout.

There was an offer attached -- if I add points now, I would receive backdated 2010 points to bank into 2011 for 2x the points to use on my next vacation.

Not sure if that offer is for everyone, but thought I'd share the info.

I received the same offer. The Guide also told me of the price increase from $130 to $140, but I was priced protected at $130 should I choose to make the purchase within a week. The sellout is expected to be in May.

 

[JimMIA]

I received the same offer. The Guide also told me of the price increase from $130 to $140, but I was priced protected at $130 should I choose to make the purchase within a week. The sellout is expected to be in May.

The sellout was also expected to be LAST May...and May 2009...and...

DVC timeshare salesmen always try to introduce a little urgency to get you to buy.

Realistically, though, if you want to buy BLT and it does sell out, you'll just buy resale and save money.

 

[mjc2003]

What confuses me is why there are already about 65 contracts for sale at BLT via resale?

Are these all people who bought in the past 2 years already reselling? Or is it possible that Disney sells some of their contracts via resellers to expedite selling out the resort?

In November of 2009, during a discussion with a DVC rep at the park we were told they would be "shocked" if the resort wasn't completely sold out by Jan 1st, 2010. I laughed in Nov 2010 when I had a similar discussion at the park and was told, "BLT might literally be sold out by the end of the day"! When I talked to DVC about buying direct, they pushed BLT a lot, based on the "discounts", and the price jump forthcoming to $140. Is this $140 ever going to happen? If they can't sell it out at $115, would they raise the price?

Would they filter some points onto the resale market via a 3rd party to move closer to a true sellout?

 

[rock_doctor]

I saw a pretty good deal on 100pt BLT contract about a week ago asking $95/pt Apr UY w/ 100 banked 2010pts (all '11 &'12.)

I wish we were/would have been ready to pounce.

that is the one i grabbed. Fidelity has many contracts most of all are fully loaded. Jump fast it has to be to Disney by march 20 for ROFR. BLT is truly in its last phase. There is about a million points available (5.5m initially) and at the current selling speed that would place it middle of the summer. Hence the price increase to push the sell out to the end of the summer to maybe early winter.

 

[ChiSoxKeith]

that is the one i grabbed. Fidelity has many contracts most of all are fully loaded. Jump fast it has to be to Disney by march 20 for ROFR

Congrats on nabbing it. That's my use year and another 100 points would have hit the spot just right.

 

[ChiSoxKeith]

What confuses me is why there are already about 65 contracts for sale at BLT via resale?

Are these all people who bought in the past 2 years already reselling? Or is it possible that Disney sells some of their contracts via resellers to expedite selling out the resort?

In November of 2009, during a discussion with a DVC rep at the park we were told they would be "shocked" if the resort wasn't completely sold out by Jan 1st, 2010. I laughed in Nov 2010 when I had a similar discussion at the park and was told, "BLT might literally be sold out by the end of the day"! When I talked to DVC about buying direct, they pushed BLT a lot, based on the "discounts", and the price jump forthcoming to $140. Is this $140 ever going to happen? If they can't sell it out at $115, would they raise the price?

Would they filter some points onto the resale market via a 3rd party to move closer to a true sellout?

1) It's $140 right now with the normal incentives.
2) They are raising the price because they can. If you look at wdrl's thread about how many points they're selling they are doing a bang up job selling lots of BLT points. The supply of BLT points has gone down (nearly sold out) and the demand is still there so the price goes up.
3) I forget the exact number but according to wdrl they are down to the last 5-10% of BLT to sell.
4) DVC does not sell points on the resale market. Think it through....why would they sell a few smaller contracts at $95-$100 per point when they are selling over 100,000 points per month at $110+ per point direct.
5) Yes, people who bought in the last two years are already selling. For many, many reasoins. They may have found out that DVC isn't right for them, they may have had one or both partners lose there job, their could have been a divorce, a death, or an unexpected health issue that came up that has affected their financial situation. Throw in the fact that they recently changed the resale rules so some people may be looking to get out now.

Again, based on wdrl's sales threads, DVC is selling tens of thousands of points each month. The few contracts that you see on the resellers represent an extremely small percentage of the total points DVC moves each month.

 

[KingRichard]

If they are down to 5-10% of BLT, what are they going to sell next?

Seems like a huge operation to keep going to wait list everyone?

Just can't see them pushing hard on Hawaii to everyone at WDW?

 

[mjc2003]

1) It's $140 right now with the normal incentives.
2) They are raising the price because they can. If you look at wdrl's thread about how many points they're selling they are doing a bang up job selling lots of BLT points. The supply of BLT points has gone down (nearly sold out) and the demand is still there so the price goes up.
3) I forget the exact number but according to wdrl they are down to the last 5-10% of BLT to sell.
4) DVC does not sell points on the resale market. Think it through....why would they sell a few smaller contracts at $95-$100 per point when they are selling over 100,000 points per month at $110+ per point direct.
5) Yes, people who bought in the last two years are already selling. For many, many reasoins. They may have found out that DVC isn't right for them, they may have had one or both partners lose there job, their could have been a divorce, a death, or an unexpected health issue that came up that has affected their financial situation. Throw in the fact that they recently changed the resale rules so some people may be looking to get out now.

Again, based on wdrl's sales threads, DVC is selling tens of thousands of points each month. The few contracts that you see on the resellers represent an extremely small percentage of the total points DVC moves each month.

All I'm saying is, 17 months ago they told me they were on the verge of selling out. I don't dispute that people are buying, I was just curious. I know it's a much smaller resort, but I found it remarkable that there are 4x the number of BCV resale contracts on the market than BLT.

 

[JimMIA]

What confuses me is why there are already about 65 contracts for sale at BLT via resale?

Are these all people who bought in the past 2 years already reselling? Or is it possible that Disney sells some of their contracts via resellers to expedite selling out the resort?

...Would they filter some points onto the resale market via a 3rd party to move closer to a true sellout?

No, the resales do NOT come from DVD. They come from individual owners who now need to sell.

As mentioned above, there are many reasons for large numbers of resales on the market right now.

But I think one big reason is financing. Since DVD started selling SSR, they relied very heavily on financing (probably >75% of the contracts were financed). They also reduced the minimum purchases far below where they have ever been in the past to try to attract new buyers.

Unfortunately, many of those folks probably found they couldn't afford DVC for all of the reasons listed previously, so they try to sell. Even more unfortunately, many of them will be "upside down," unable to pay off their loan and the commission, so they will have to pay IN at closing rather than receiving a nice check.

The way prices have dropped for SSR, BLT, and AKV, those sellers are going to take a hard hit when they sell.

 

[JimMIA]

3) I forget the exact number but according to wdrl they are down to the last 5-10% of BLT to sell.

Be careful how you read those statistics. "Declared" is not the same as sold. "Declared" means available for sale.

People have been predicting an imminent sellout of BLT since the day it opened -- there were some here who thought it would sell out in a month!

 

[JimMIA]

I know it's a much smaller resort, but I found it remarkable that there are 4x the number of BCV resale contracts on the market than BLT.

I think you meant 4X BLT to BCV. And yes, it is the small size of BCV that accounts for that difference.

To me, the striking difference is between BCV and VWL. They're both very small, but there are a LOT more VWL contracts for sale than BCV.

 

[mjc2003]

I think you meant 4X BLT to BCV. And yes, it is the small size of BCV that accounts for that difference.

To me, the striking difference is between BCV and VWL. They're both very small, but there are a LOT more VWL contracts for sale than BCV.

Correct, I had it backwards--I know the numbers don't compare, but was just surprised b/c of how new BLT is, and figure people who financed BCV are enduring the same hardships as those who are selling BLT, but I guess it's just about the relative scale.

Is BCV just more desirable than VWL? Especially since a lot of the premium times for DVCers to travel fall during Epcot-centric events?

Right now Fidelity alone has 13 BCV contracts for sale and 50 VWL. I know that DVC by Resale and TTS only have a handful of BCV, probably 6 combined, so the scale is probably 4-1, VWL to BCV. Interesting.

 

[ChiSoxKeith]

Be careful how you read those statistics. "Declared" is not the same as sold. "Declared" means available for sale.

People have been predicting an imminent sellout of BLT since the day it opened -- there were some here who thought it would sell out in a month!

Well, sure those people were a bit reactionary. But according to wdrl's thread they've declared it all at this point and there down to the last 5-10% of points.

 

[JimMIA]

Well, sure those people were a bit reactionary. But according to wdrl's thread they've declared it all at this point and there down to the last 5-10% of points.

Well, wdrl's info in usually very accurate, so that may be right. Of course 10% of the points at BLT is still a whole lot of points. Plus, DVD has eaten a bunch of points through givebacks and foreclosures, so I'd bet they'll still be selling for a while.

 

[dizfan]

Well, sure those people were a bit reactionary. But according to wdrl's thread they've declared it all at this point and there down to the last 5-10% of points.

http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=40178097&postcount=217

7.85% of BLT is still undeclared.
As of end of February, DVD still had approximately 18% of the maximum points they could sell for BLT still available.

wdrl pointed out that it is possible that Disney could decide to not declare all the units and keep them for cash guests.
Also, keep in mind DVD may reach the "sold out" phase for June UY, but still have 200,000 points available for Feb UY.

 

[Phambiton]

What confuses me is why there are already about 65 contracts for sale at BLT via resale?

Are these all people who bought in the past 2 years already reselling? Or is it possible that Disney sells some of their contracts via resellers to expedite selling out the resort?

sellout?

My contact is in ROFR. I did a search on the Comptroller's website on my seller to make sure everything's legit. The search result shows there are 22 recorded deeds for BLT under his name. The seller's name is unique enough for me to suspect that all 22 belong to this one person. I believed that he's probably selling all or most of these contracts as some of the IDs for the contracts on the TSS site are similar...

 

[WilsonFlyer]

My contact is in ROFR. I did a search on the Comptroller's website on my seller to make sure everything's legit. The search result shows there are 22 recorded deeds for BLT under his name. The seller's name is unique enough for me to suspect that all 22 belong to this one person. I believed that he's probably selling all or most of these contracts as some of the IDs for the contracts on the TSS site are similar...

This guy sounds like a market speculator to me. 22 contracts at one resort? Wow. I know there are people here with many smaller contracts but that seems a bit excessive even in those terms.

This guy must have bet on the come in a good real estate market when the resort first started selling and lost his shirt when the market tanked.

I always thought BLT would be one of the rare exceptions that would appreciate over time too, and I still think it will, but it's going to be a while longer because of the overall real estate market. Don't get me wrong, I bought BLT to stay there for years to come and not to sell later, but I certainly can see the potential for this resort to be used for 15-20 years and sold at resale for basically the cost of the annual dues for the period. (Now THAT'S speculation! LOL)