BLT Final Sellout Phase

[KingRichard]

This guy sounds like a market speculator to me. 22 contracts at one resort? Wow. I know there are people here with many smaller contracts but that seems a bit excessive even in those terms.

This guy must have bet on the come in a good real estate market when the resort first started selling and lost his shirt when the market tanked.

I always thought BLT would be one of the rare exceptions that would appreciate over time too, and I still think it will, but it's going to be a while longer because of the overall real estate market. Don't get me wrong, I bought BLT to stay there for years to come and not to sell later, but I certainly can see the potential for this resort to be used for 15-20 years and sold at resale for basically the cost of the annual dues for the period. (Now THAT'S speculation! LOL)

I read that BLT was about $91 per point during a few sales?

So this person may have lost nothing?

If they rented their points, got bonuses from Disney and extra points?

 

[DenLo]

What confuses me is why there are already about 65 contracts for sale at BLT via resale?

Are these all people who bought in the past 2 years already reselling? Or is it possible that Disney sells some of their contracts via resellers to expedite selling out the resort?

Who really knows the answer to that question for sure? I know that 6 months ago there were very few BLT contracts available for resale. I do think that some DCV members got excited about a new DVC resort and bought points as soon as the DVC opened them to members. And later when people realized the decor was modern (at a Contemporary resort, mind you) people got turned off. Then there are those that are shocked by the number of points needed per night for reservations. BLT is not cheap whether you are buying points or reserving a night. And then people aren't about the stability of the annual dues. Some thought the increase in 2011 was excessive. Other members, used three years of points and now they are selling. And I think there were some speculators out there, some bought multiple contracts and are now selling them at a profit and trying to get them sold before the March 20th deadline.

My contact is in ROFR. I did a search on the Comptroller's website on my seller to make sure everything's legit. The search result shows there are 22 recorded deeds for BLT under his name. The seller's name is unique enough for me to suspect that all 22 belong to this one person. I believed that he's probably selling all or most of these contracts as some of the IDs for the contracts on the TSS site are similar...

Did you notice if all of the contracts had the same contract number with just different digits at the end .001 etc.? It''s possible he was one of those people that believe in only having small contracts but he wanted a lot of points. 22 contracts at 25 points each is 550 points. That's not an unusual amount of points for a DVC member, especially at BLT if you want a 2BR. Or maybe he was speculating and was hoping to really profit on BLT's points but Disney has changed the resale owner's entitlements after March 20th. And now he wants to sell as many as possible before March 20th. He might be one that believes that the DVC resale market will plummet after March 20th.

I'm not sure we will ever know the answer.

 

[Phambiton]

This guy sounds like a market speculator to me. 22 contracts at one resort? Wow. I know there are people here with many smaller contracts but that seems a bit excessive even in those terms.

This guy must have bet on the come in a good real estate market when the resort first started selling and lost his shirt when the market tanked.

I always thought BLT would be one of the rare exceptions that would appreciate over time too, and I still think it will, but it's going to be a while longer because of the overall real estate market. Don't get me wrong, I bought BLT to stay there for years to come and not to sell later, but I certainly can see the potential for this resort to be used for 15-20 years and sold at resale for basically the cost of the annual dues for the period. (Now THAT'S speculation! LOL)

Judging from the size of the contracts (one main--medium size and many small 50 pts add-ons) the frequency of purchases (from when BLT first opened to 2010), and the type of purchases (mostly Disney financed purchases), I did not conclude that he was a market speculator. *I thought he could be 1) Disney obsessed, 2) compulsive or addict purchaser or 3) in the business of renting out points. *He also owns about half a dozen contracts of AKV and BCV, each. *The total number of points available to him are more than all of his extended family, third and fourth cousins can use in any given year. *Also, BLT, AKV and BCV are the three in most demand, this led me to believe that he's buying the contracts to rent out the points.

His business model almost worked -- as I worked out the numbers and concluded that an owner can earn a good 5-6% return after paying the MF and not accounting for the three Ts (time, tears, and toil) --but there's a problem. *Most of his contracts are Disney financed, of about 10-12%, so he actually losing more than 5-6% per year. *I think with the change in the rules, he got nervous about being stuck with all those contracts...

 

[dbs1228]

I was surprised at some of the really stripped BLT contracts! There are a few that do not have points coming until 9/13 and they are priced at 92.00pp with closing it equals 95.33pp. I figured out if I bought through DVC with current incentives I would pay about 125.00 BUT if I rented out all the points from now until 9/13 the actual cost would be 95.00pp. Just saying....

 

[KingRichard]

I was surprised at some of the really stripped BLT contracts! There are a few that do not have points coming until 9/13 and they are priced at 92.00pp with closing it equals 95.33pp. I figured out if I bought through DVC with current incentives I would pay about 125.00 BUT if I rented out all the points from now until 9/13 the actual cost would be 95.00pp. Just saying....

So if you bought one of these contracts you would have to pay 2012 dues/taxes and get no points to use?

 

[dbs1228]

So if you bought one of these contracts you would have to pay 2012 dues/taxes and get no points to use?

That is how it is listed I am sure you could negotiate that part. The listing only includes no 2011 dues. Makes you wonder about a few weeks ago when BLT was priced (with incentives) at 115.00 plus 500.00 visa gift card (which I think they still have at the higher price) much better deal then resale stripped contract.

 

[JimMIA]

So if you bought one of these contracts you would have to pay 2012 dues/taxes and get no points to use?

Everything is negotiable in a resale. The general practice is that you do NOT pay dues for banked points. You generally DO pay dues for current year points and future year points that you are getting -- and you generally do NOT pay dues for points from those years that you are not getting.

(That's actually kind of a backwards way of looking at it, if you understand what dues are, but it's sort of the standard default in the resale marketplace.)

All that said, in this environment (pre-3/20), if I were a buyer I'd find a contract I liked and pounce! You don't want to be nickel-and-diming the deal and have the contract go to another buyer.

 

[dbs1228]

I agree about if you find something good go for it. The striped contracts at BLT are not a good deal. Like I said you can get a lower price if you were willing to rent all points bought direct until 9/2013! The 95.00pp price I used for direct pricing (renting points) did not include the 500.00 visa g/c which is equal to another 3.00pp savings.

My whole point to people is do the math. BLT at 92.00 pp looks GREAT compared to direct but factor in closing, no points ect... now not such a good deal probably why it is still sitting.