BLT Contemporary DVC - What is your guide saying?

[bookwormde]

Well her is a sampling of rates for CR (august) and point Dollar costs at $8/pt (magic), which would you do?

List CRO, 25% off CRO, Wkday pts, wkday pts new

Garden/studio 361, 271, 96 (12), 200 (25)
Tower/studio view 428, 321, 120(15), 232 (29)
Club/concierge st 580, 435, 136 (17), 316 (38)
1br garden/std 996, 747, 224 (28), 334 (43)
2br clbvw/concvw 1919, 1540, 400 (50), 800 (100)

This does not take into account housekeeping

This give you the idea that in most cases you are still getting a better deal than a 40% off pin.

While this would not make me happy it is still a significant discount to CRO

It is all speculation, but the logic does work.

bookwormde

 

[DeeCee735]

Boy am I glad I bought when I did, where I did! No speculations here, just a sigh of relief!

 

[pillow]

If I were thinking of buying DVC at this point (we bought Saratoga in 2004) and if the cost of BLT was $120/pt, I would seriously consider purchasing on the resale market. You of course lose the 11 month booking opportunity if you want BLT. That said, in the 4 years we've owned Saratoga, I've always called 7 months out to reserve rooms elsewhere. Only once was I unable to do so.

It will be interesting to see the prices and points charts!!

Jodie

 

[GoofItUp]

If I were thinking of buying DVC at this point (we bought Saratoga in 2004) and if the cost of BLT was $120/pt, I would seriously consider purchasing on the resale market. You of course lose the 11 month booking opportunity if you want BLT. That said, in the 4 years we've owned Saratoga, I've always called 7 months out to reserve rooms elsewhere. Only once was I unable to do so.

It will be interesting to see the prices and points charts!!

Jodie

You took the words right off of my keyboard! We were all set to buy when BLT is announced, but with the gas prices going up and stocks going down, $120/pt is not going to be happening at this house. If it really comes out at such an increase, we'll be considering other options including resale. The 11-month window is not worth that premium to us!

 

[Troop o' Goofs]

Since I am new to this whole DVC thing...and we are looking to buy in the fall, either through Disney or resale. I was wondering when they do announce BLT, am I correct in believing that the point price will not be announced for a while? I am afraid that when they announce BLT we will see an increase in the price of other DVC's such as VWL, BWV, etc...though once they announce it, the opposite could happen as people start selling their points at other DVC properties and would bring the resale prices down, both through TSS and directly through Disney.

Any thoughts?

 

[jdg345]

The same source who says sales are off until Aug 15 at the earliest also says expect a $10-$20 per point price jump- and that there will not be any $ incentives. (Possibly a founder's club incentive- which means nothing to me) I hate to say it as I have been saving like mad for this- but that is too rich for my blood.

Considering how they handled the Founders Tapestry for AKV, they can keep this one.

 

[jdg345]

Silly question...but...is the anticipated price jump only for BLT or for ALL of the DVC properties? This may end up effecting our VWL purchase in the fall.

I just don't see how they're going to do this ... if they bump BLT points to $115-125 per, they completely skew the system. I might as well purchase SSR or AKV at that point and just book at 7 months (you could use OKW or VB here, but since they expire earlier, I'm just trying to keep things more apples to apples). In any case, it would make more sense for them to increase based on points. Instead of 12 pts for a Studio, it might be 18, or 20. This doesn't skew the pricing.

And, from what I've heard about the point chart being rejected and needing to be 're-calculated', it makes sense that this is exactly what they're doing.

 

[pillow]

Since I am new to this whole DVC thing...and we are looking to buy in the fall, either through Disney or resale. I was wondering when they do announce BLT, am I correct in believing that the point price will not be announced for a while? I am afraid that when they announce BLT we will see an increase in the price of other DVC's such as VWL, BWV, etc...though once they announce it, the opposite could happen as people start selling their points at other DVC properties and would bring the resale prices down, both through TSS and directly through Disney.

Any thoughts?

I would think that they would have to announce the point structure at the same time the prices come out. People wouldn't want to purchase without knowing how many points they would need for their vacation.

In terms of resale prices, I honestly don't track the trends there, but I don't think they appreciate since years left are decreasing - someone correct me if I'm wrong. If you decide to purchase resale, just keep in mind that you'll have to pay closing costs, whereas if you purchase new through Disney, they cover closing costs for you.

In hind sight, after we purchased Saratoga in 2004, we sort of wished we had purchased Hilton Head as a resale. Its super hard to book Hilton Head (since its a small resort) during the summer. It would be nice to have the advantage of 11 month booking there. We own Saratoga, but we've never stayed there. Other than HH, the only time we've had a problem was booking for this Thanksgiving. I called at 9:00 am EXACTLY 7 months out, and there were NO 2 bedroom villas in all of Disney. I was shocked! I guess everyone played it safe and booked 11 months out for Thanksgiving. I've never had problems before - not even over Spring Break time.

Another idea for those not wanting to fork out the money to purchase DVC. You can rent points from a current owner at roughly $10-$11 per point - although you're not guaranteed to get what you want, its a cheap way to go. It saves a lot of money vs booking and paying cash through Disney.

Good luck with your purchases!

Jodie

 

[Monorail Purple&Gold]

Glad we bought when/where we did.

CR has never appealed to us (can't put a finger on exactly why) and thought of CR DVC (sorry, BLT not working for me, either--hate tomato) does not appeal, even with monorail access.

See signature below for what DVC could do to really get my blood to boil!!!!

 

[Shamus]

Here is the math as to where pricing would likely be come August.

1991 Pre-Sale cost was $48/pt.
March 2007 cost increased to $104/pt.
= 7.21% annualized cost increase

Now consider that 17 months will have passed since the last increase:
(current cost * annual rate) * ( 17 months / 1 year ) = projected cost increase
($104 * 7.21)*(17/12) = $10.66

Round it to an even $11 and you get:
Projected Cost August 1, 2008 = $115

Concluding opinion: I think a $120/pt. BLT price would not be that far out of line considering all the presale interest.

 

[Troop o' Goofs]

I would think that they would have to announce the point structure at the same time the prices come out. People wouldn't want to purchase without knowing how many points they would need for their vacation.

In terms of resale prices, I honestly don't track the trends there, but I don't think they appreciate since years left are decreasing - someone correct me if I'm wrong. If you decide to purchase resale, just keep in mind that you'll have to pay closing costs, whereas if you purchase new through Disney, they cover closing costs for you.

In hind sight, after we purchased Saratoga in 2004, we sort of wished we had purchased Hilton Head as a resale. Its super hard to book Hilton Head (since its a small resort) during the summer. It would be nice to have the advantage of 11 month booking there. We own Saratoga, but we've never stayed there. Other than HH, the only time we've had a problem was booking for this Thanksgiving. I called at 9:00 am EXACTLY 7 months out, and there were NO 2 bedroom villas in all of Disney. I was shocked! I guess everyone played it safe and booked 11 months out for Thanksgiving. I've never had problems before - not even over Spring Break time.

Another idea for those not wanting to fork out the money to purchase DVC. You can rent points from a current owner at roughly $10-$11 per point - although you're not guaranteed to get what you want, its a cheap way to go. It saves a lot of money vs booking and paying cash through Disney.

Good luck with your purchases!

Jodie

Thanks for your thoughts. I am hoping that when they do announce BLT, the resale market will flood with people selling their points at other DVC resorts to buy into BLT. We are WL and BW fans and will be buying at VWL this fall and I hope to eventually buy at BW also. I am hoping we will be able to afford the amount of points we would need, 200-250 for a family of 5 for a vacation every other or every three years.

 

[jdg345]

Glad we bought when/where we did.

CR has never appealed to us (can't put a finger on exactly why) and thought of CR DVC (sorry, BLT not working for me, either--hate tomato) does not appeal, even with monorail access.

See signature below for what DVC could do to really get my blood to boil!!!!

But they announced a Polynesian DVC already ... it's just that it's going to be in Hawaii!

 

[mrdiscranky]

March 2007 cost increased to $104/pt.

The rack price might be $104, but that's not what Disney is charging. With the discounts, bonues and developer points, the effective cost has been more like $90/pt. I don't see any way for them to go to an effective cost of $120/pt for BLT.

 

[Monorail Purple&Gold]

But they announced a Polynesian DVC already ... it's just that it's going to be in Hawaii!

Can't wait to see the maintenance fees on this one to upkeep the monorail line to Florida

 

[pillow]

Here is the math as to where pricing would likely be come August.

1991 Pre-Sale cost was $48/pt.
March 2007 cost increased to $104/pt.
= 7.21% annualized cost increase

Now consider that 17 months will have passed since the last increase:
(current cost * annual rate) * ( 17 months / 1 year ) = projected cost increase
($104 * 7.21)*(17/12) = $10.66

Round it to an even $11 and you get:
Projected Cost August 1, 2008 = $115

Concluding opinion: I think a $120/pt. BLT price would not be that far out of line considering all the presale interest.

I wonder if the demand will be lower though due to the economy.

Also, I would think that the points charts will really impact the sales price (and/or vice versa). Paying $115-$120 per point might be manageable IF points charts are "reasonable." However, if you have to buy more points in order to take your vacation AND pay more per point, then your cost has increased dramatically. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Jodie

 

[Cherta]

I wonder if the demand will be lower though due to the economy.

Also, I would think that the points charts will really impact the sales price (and/or vice versa). Paying $115-$120 per point might be manageable IF points charts are "reasonable." However, if you have to buy more points in order to take your vacation AND pay more per point, then your cost has increased dramatically. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Jodie

And let's not forget- you still gotta find a way to get there!

I agree with you 100% on this-things will get real interesting if Disney decides to do the "double whammy" with these new resorts (BLT and VGC)...

 

[spiceycat]

don't know.

really upset that they are changing the points chart.

do they really think that 12 points for looking at the CR is fair.

that is just not right.

for 12 points you can get BCV, VWL and BW with BW view.

please remember that BWV points were not standard and preferred when first release.

just preferred. so they can go back and change them - if they find that no ones wants them at that point costs.

yea that is really going to happen.

just don't know - while I do love Wishes and really, really want BLT - the price for point is not quite as upsetting (DVC resorts have always gone up in price) - the point charts is the key.

hope they release the point chart first. would hate to buy something without a point chart.

a view of the parking lot 8 points. (remember this is a curve so there is a chance)

a view of CR 9 points.

a view of the lake 12 points

a MK view 15 points

this is adventure season - my opinion.

 

[Shamus]

The rack price might be $104, but that's not what Disney is charging. With the discounts, bonues and developer points, the effective cost has been more like $90/pt. I don't see any way for them to go to an effective cost of $120/pt for BLT.

"Rack Price", is the only number to go by for historical evaluation. There have been incentives of of some type for almost the entire time that there have been DVC sales. Early purchasers got Park Passes with their stays during the 1990's. Some were offered reimbursement of their hotel room costs for the trip in which they purchased. And then there is the incentive of selling back the first years points for $10 each. Trying to compare the "effective cost" between each of the prior incentives is comparing apples to oranges, so "rack" is all there is. I agree with what other posters have said in that Disney will likely set the price @ the $120 mark, and then offer/adjust incentives so that unit sales meet their goals.

 

[pillow]

And let's not forget- you still gotta find a way to get there!

+ Tickets

+ Food

. . . which is why we have started driving to WDW - 12 hours for us - not too bad.

J

 

[pillow]

+ Tickets

+ Food

. . . which is why we have started driving to WDW - 12 hours for us - not too bad.

J

Oh, and I forgot . . .

+ the other "normal" vacations we like to take

Its hard, but I'm determined not to let Disney monopolize my vacation dollars - just to many cool places to visit in this World.

J