Big News

[TexasChick123]

I've been eyeing my plan B, C, & D if my current contract is taken in ROFR. I'm very encouraged that some of the wildly high BWV prices seem to be tempering.

I don’t need any more points despite wanting to buy some at a certain resort. I’m going to give the market a month or two to react to all of this news, get started on some home renovations I’ve put off, and reassess then.

 

[DanCio]

The vast majority of owners do not own for life, I think I saw something that 9-10 years is the average length of time that owners keep DVC for.

I think that's very correct, and the changes we have seen from Disney through the years have all been an attempt to get owners who are straying from their vision, i.e. buy it once, buy it for life, never sell it back on the "correct path" for DVC. I certainly don't fit their vision. I bought Resale at age 61, I'm single, don't have any kids and only stay for long weekends. Hardly what they envisioned, a young family buying in their 20's or 30's, buying enough points for a full week or two full weeks a year for a family of 4, and keeping it until the deed expires. I live in FL, and when I was married we never had time to come to Disney for a week at a time. We could go for maybe 2 long weekend a year. Then I got busier when I was divorced and I finally had time when I turned 60 but still prefer long weekends.

Resale is not something Disney even ever dreamed about. Anyone remember the old Disneyana Conventions, the precursor to D23? I was at the 1st and I asked a cast member why they were now doing these and they said there's money in it and we didn't realize how much their was. Had they realized how much money there was in Resale they would have started it a long time ago.

 

[DduzDis]

I don’t need any more points despite wanting to buy some at a certain resort. I’m going to give the market a month or two to react to all of this news, get started on some home renovations I’ve put off, and reassess then.

This is an add-on for us so we don't really need them either. But, if the right contract is available we would like to own at BWV. I really should do the same as you and focus on the home projects, but avoiding buses to two more resorts is more appealing than new kitchen counter tops (for the right price).

 

[TexasChick123]

This is an add-on for us so we don't really need them either. But, if the right contract is available we would like to own at BWV. I really should do the same as you and focus on the home projects, but avoiding buses to two more resorts is more appealing than new kitchen counter tops (for the right price).

I just bought BWV last year for that reason. I think they took one or two of mine in ROFR. Honestly, I can’t keep track anymore. I’ve had so many taken...

We have a downstairs bathroom that needs updating. I’m actually going to make the call today to someone I know who is an interior designer and get the ball rolling. It’ll give me something else to focus on rather than VGC!

 

[DduzDis]

I just bought BWV last year for that reason. I think they took one or two of mine in ROFR. Honestly, I can’t Lee track anymore. I’ve had so many taken...

We have a downstairs bathroom that needs updating. I’m actually going to make the call today to someone I know who is an interior designer and get the ball rolling. It’ll give me something else to focus on rather than VGC!

I hope to get lucky on this one, but willing to play the ROFR game with DVD a little while if prices don't get crazy. Good luck with your project!

 

[DanCio]

For example, I can easily imagine that once you hold a Riviera contract and that the resort is completely sold out, you will be able to list it via Disney onto their own DVC market/resale/auction/whatever website.

I think you're correct. It took Disney years to get into the fan club/collectibles market. I went to the first Disneyana convention back the 1990's and I asked a cat member shy they were only now doing them. His reply was because there is a lot of money in it.

...with Disney allowing them to go down a bit depending on offer/demand, but everything would stay above what Disney is considering reasonable.

I don't think Disney will be able to control pricing. It's the same thing if you own a condo and your condo association determines you can only sell at a price they determine. And they can't do that.

The appeal of buying via Disney would be high...

Yeah, I think it would be, especially if they include all resorts and add back the perks, but then again, it would kill the idea of ROFR for them where they are charging a heck of a lot more for the same points. If you were to ask Disney if they do resale they probably would think they are but don't present it that way to buyers so they can charge a higher price per point. It's about 50% higher per point.

 

[Jerry5788]

I don't think Disney will be able to control pricing. It's the same thing if you own a condo and your condo association determines you can only sell at a price they determine. And they can't do that.

Disney could regulate Grand Riveria resale quite easily at least in first years as there won't be many people selling. They will simply ROFR anything until they get it to what they feel is an appropriate gap.

 

[DanCio]

I’m sure many of you are on the email threads. Prices aren’t “tanking”, but they are coming down for now. There are a lot of very reasonably priced contracts considering the prices as of late that have just been sitting for days/weeks.

Yes there are, I picked up a 160 point SSR contract at $95 pp. I think prices come down after the 1st of the year because people's lives changed in the prior year. All the kids moved out, or they retired, or they moved or had a child. So it's its time for them to sell and they want it to sell fast.

 

[DanCio]

Disney could regulate Grand Riveria resale quite easily at least in first years as there won't be many people selling. They will simply ROFR anything until they get it to what they feel is an appropriate gap.

Yeah, but that isn't the same as telling a buyer what price they can sell a contract for. The buyer still set the price and sold it for what they were asking via ROFR I don't think Disney ever imagined there would ever be this much resale activity. They set up ROFR as a stopgap to help them sell points at resorts at near to today's rates that are otherwise sold out for what they envisioned to b a few resale contracts a year. I still think they had from day 1 a vision that said "Buy it once, but it for life and NEVER sell it."

 

[Jerry5788]

Yeah, but that isn't the same as telling a buyer what price they can sell a contract for. The buyer still set the price and sold it for what they were asking via ROFR I don't think Disney ever imagined there would ever be this much resale activity. They set up ROFR as a stopgap to help them sell points at resorts at near to today's rates that are otherwise sold out for what they envisioned to b a few resale contracts a year. I still think they had from day 1 a vision that said "Buy it once, but it for life and NEVER sell it."

Correct but they control the market through ROFR - to cheap we buy back so they force the price up. Idk what appropriate discount is just saying easy for them to regulate in early stages of the contract life. Then perhaps as new DVC 2 resorts open up maybe they amend policy again to allow resales of riveria to stay at those resorts which would support prices

 

[TexasChick123]

To those saying that this change will not/should not affect the resale prices, I have a couple of questions for you should you become a resale buyer.

1. How many of you would pay more for a resale contract than the current listed values after these changes go into effect?

2. How many of you, as buyers, will argue that you will not pay that price because now you can’t book at the new resorts which lowers their value when talking to the brokers?

 

[Madame]

To those saying that this change will not/should not affect the resale prices, I have a couple of questions for you should you become a resale buyer.

1. How many of you would pay more for a resale contract than the current listed values after these changes go into effect?

2. How many of you, as buyers, will argue that you will not pay that price because now you can’t book at the new resorts which lowers their value when talking to the brokers?

We are definitely done buying now. I really love BRV, but with over 50% of our points at BCV I was leaning towards CCV resale in the next 5 years to get a longer end date. Not now.

It was the 2 points you have made here, but also the one-way exchange.

If I buy another resale I can’t exchange into the newer resorts (& I might not even want to, but that’s beside the point) but direct buyers can exchange into the resort I would be paying dues on?!? Uh, no. I am not a sucker.

 

[TexasChick123]

We are definitely done buying now. I really love BRV, but with over 50% of our points at BCV I was leaning towards CCV resale in the next 5 years to get a longer end date. Not now.

It was the 2 points you have made here, but also the one-way exchange.

If I buy another resale I can’t exchange into the newer resorts (& I might not even want to, but that’s beside the point) but direct buyers can exchange into the resort I would be paying dues on?!? Uh, no. I am not a sucker.

Exactly. I think so many are being defensive because they are looking at it from a sellers' standpoint. As current owners, it is in our best interest for the prices to remain high and keep rising, mine included. However, that doesn't mean it is going to happen. There is always a chance the prices rise as the resale market is completely inefficient. If some stopped to think about whether or not they would pay more as a resale buyer going forward at the "Legacy 14" resorts which no longer will have the ability to trade into future resorts, I doubt we could find very many who would say, "I would pay more". The whole situation is turned on its head when we are the buyers rather than the sellers which is why so many are saying they are worried about the resale market going down.

There are many like you and I that were considering adding on and have decided to forget it because of the changes. Where is the mad rush to add on that so many thought was coming with this restriction announcement? The resale market isn't tanking, but I am seeing a lot of price drops and contracts at very reasonable prices just sitting and sitting.

 

[DanCio]

I just paid $95 for a 160 point SSR Contract. I was looking to pay between $98 and $105. I would still pay in that ballpark for another SSR contract. Even if I couldn't stay at Riv or Reflections, in would be a good deal. Even though I can stay there, Reflections would be the 2nd to last on my list in Orlando and Riv would be dead last. If I stay at 2 resorts a year, it would still take me 12 years to get to them.

 

[CarolMN]

I think that contracts purchased through resales should only be allowed to book at their "Home Resorts" not any of the 14 existing resorts. That may relieve some of the pressure of trying to book at the more desirable resorts. If someone bought a resale at OKW then that should be the only resort they could book. I know there may be a few people who would disagree , but people who paid a premium to buy directly from DVC should have some advantage over those who chose to buy at a lower price on the resale market. I'm sure Disney is thinking about this change to encourage direct sales and lower resale prices for ROFR.

I've posted this before, but perhaps it bears repeating.

If Disney could limit resale purchased points to home resort booking only, they would already have done so (IMO). They haven't, because they legally can't. This is typical language from a Multi-Site Position Offering Statement which applies to the 14 "classic" DVC resorts:

"Membership in the Club is an “appurtenance” to each Ownership Interest in accordance with the governing documents for each DVC Resort. Therefore, when you purchase your Ownership Interest in a DVC Resort, you automatically become a Member of the Club. Your membership in the Club follows your Ownership Interest and cannot be separated from it. For example, if your Ownership Interest is sold or otherwise transferred, the new Owner of your Ownership Interest will become the Member".

There is no language in the MSPOS that differentiates between owners based on how their points were acquired.

You will not see this language in the Offering Statements for the Riviera or subsequent resorts. Instead, there will be language that speaks specifically re limitations on points purchased via resale.

 

[skippytx]

To those saying that this change will not/should not affect the resale prices, I have a couple of questions for you should you become a resale buyer.

1. How many of you would pay more for a resale contract than the current listed values after these changes go into effect?

2. How many of you, as buyers, will argue that you will not pay that price because now you can’t book at the new resorts which lowers their value when talking to the brokers?

I'm a BLT owner so from my perspective

1: Probably. 145 a point is a touch high for me right now, but I've really considered adding another 160 points at around 135 if possible. I missed the boat on 100 to 115 dollar BLT points by like 8 months, and I don't know if it'll go back down to 125 list ever again. It depends on what happens to the rental market, rack rates, the economy, etc. If 145 is the new normal for BLT points I'll probably eventually pay it. I could see myself going to 160/pp if necessary. It's only a one time 2400 dollar difference between 145 and 160 a point (spread out 0.375 cents/pp over the life of the contract assuming 6400 points total over the remaining life of the contract). I want to stay at BLT and would only use the points at BLT so the changes wouldn't matter to me at all.

2: Honestly not being able to book at the new resorts makes no difference to me at all. You buy the more expensive properties because you want to stay there. You don't buy VGF, Poly, BCV, or BLT points to sleep around. People that expect to pick up cheap OKW, VB, HH, or SSR points and then never stay there, they might take a hit in the resale market...eventually. There's still 14 resorts to choose from. I'm also not interested in staying at either of the new resorts as of right now, I'm 100% fine with the OG14 options. If the rumored BLT2 project ever happens though.... that might change. The 11 month booking window is becoming more and more important the more DVC grows, so "buy where you want to stay" is becoming more and more true every day.

 

[TexasChick123]

I'm a BLT owner so from my perspective

1: Probably. 145 a point is a touch high for me right now, but I've really considered adding another 160 points at around 135 if possible. I missed the boat on 100 to 115 dollar BLT points by like 8 months, and I don't know if it'll go back down to 125 list ever again. It depends on what happens to the rental market, rack rates, the economy, etc. If 145 is the new normal for BLT points I'll probably eventually pay it. I could see myself going to 160/pp if necessary. It's only a one time 2400 dollar difference between 145 and 160 a point (spread out 0.375 cents/pp over the life of the contract assuming 6400 points total over the remaining life of the contract). I want to stay at BLT and would only use the points at BLT so the changes wouldn't matter to me at all.

My BLT and BWV points are the cheapest ones I won. I picked up my first BLT contract at $100pp, and I picked up my BWV for $94pp (effectively) once I rented out the loaded points. It's just a funny difference because I use my BLT points at different resorts, like my upcoming AKV stay. Now, to get back to those prices again would be nice...

 

[Jerry5788]

To those saying that this change will not/should not affect the resale prices, I have a couple of questions for you should you become a resale buyer.

1. How many of you would pay more for a resale contract than the current listed values after these changes go into effect?

2. How many of you, as buyers, will argue that you will not pay that price because now you can’t book at the new resorts which lowers their value when talking to the brokers?

People will probably use that at a bargaining point when buying. I can’t say for certain because it’s not opened yet. But I would never stay at riveria at 7 months unless it had lots of availability. If it had lots of availability that means it’s not very good. If it was coincidence it can’t beat location of Bwv and bcv. If it’s cheaper per night can’t beat Bwv point chart - but that’s assuming the standard is open at 7 months.

 

[skier_pete]

To those saying that this change will not/should not affect the resale prices, I have a couple of questions for you should you become a resale buyer.

1. How many of you would pay more for a resale contract than the current listed values after these changes go into effect?

2. How many of you, as buyers, will argue that you will not pay that price because now you can’t book at the new resorts which lowers their value when talking to the brokers?

1. I would not buy at current price points regardless. Before the whole 2020 points chart fiasco, i would have considered an AKV contract if it were ~100 points and <$95 per point. Right now I have no "itch" for more points thanks to what they did to the lockoff premium, so at the moment I probably wouldn't even buy at the $95 price point, but lower I might consider it.

2. I don't think the change will affect what I am willing to pay. To me, the Magical-14 is enough of selection to get into. I already have 235 points that I can use to get into the Riviera and future resorts if I really want to. My two home resorts are also my favorite resorts (AKV and BWV) and while we've stayed at most resort there's no other resort that I couldn't live without except maybe the Poly, so unless I fall in love with Riviera - which I can't picture is possible with my tastes

I don't foresee this particularly lowering prices. I think it takes an economic downturn to really hit prices. Prices *might* lead an economic downturn. (If people are actually seeing money problems that is not yet obvious in the media.)

 

[Mainstreetdreams]

To those saying that this change will not/should not affect the resale prices, I have a couple of questions for you should you become a resale buyer.

1. How many of you would pay more for a resale contract than the current listed values after these changes go into effect?

2. How many of you, as buyers, will argue that you will not pay that price because now you can’t book at the new resorts which lowers their value when talking to the brokers?

The reason I don't think it will affect prices for the 14 is because of how I view it as a buyer. Obviously I could be wrong but this is my reasoning. I've considered buying another contract but I won't buy direct because I feel those prices are too high. If I'm going to buy resale, the newer resorts are completely out of the question because I want the ability to hop around. That leaves me with only one option and that's buying one of the legacy resorts. I'm guessing that I won't be the only one to feel this way. Since there won't be anymore of those units being built, supply will shrink over time and prices will rise. I think they'll plateau as the life of the deed shortens, which obviously will happen to all the resorts.

My reasons for thinking prices will be stable or rise on the legacy resorts in short:

1. I'd only buy DVC resale.
2. I wouldn't buy Riviera or Reflections because of restrictions which leaves me only legacy resort options.
3. The demand for legacy resort resale units will outpace the supply as they aren't going to have anymore new inventory coming onto the market. (All of the new points will have restrictions.)

I paid $104 a point for AKV and I would be willing to go up to $120 a point, knowing I'm still getting way under direct prices. Also, the DVC resorts that appeal to me most are legacy resorts. That might change after Riviera and Reflections is open, but they'd really have to wow me in order to lock myself into only getting them.