Best SAP resort?

[DanCali]

My points would be closer to the mid to high 170s as a non owner though correct? That makes it a little less attractive?

It may be a bit higher, so by definition a bit less attractive. But that doesn't mean unattractive. At these prices, $1000-$1500 should not turn a good deal into a bad one.

An existing member getting 150 points for $161.1 after MB still has closing costs of $700-$800 which add about $5/point. If they split it into 3 contracts, that adds another ~$500, or $2/point. That can maybe be reduced a bit by foregoing title insurance. It the end, it's a few hundred here or there.

As a non owner, you may start $10/point higher. Maybe you can reduce the impact by foregoing title insurance and doing a single 150-point contract. Those choices, especially not splitting, may prove to be penny-wise-pound-foolish over time. Even at the new owner price, you're looking at prices that more than rival resales for VGF.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

OKW is way overpriced, because Disney ROFRs a lot of it and extends it (which you can't do). I would only buy OKW for the GV, which is the opposite of SAP.

If you believe money invested is worth anything, there is no way any of the other suspects compete with SSR, especially at current pricing. I suppose Aulani is in the running (at least at current dues/taxes), but I wouldn't buy Aulani for many reasons, beaten to death in other threads.

I think there are other good buys overall, like BLT and CCV, but that isn't a pure SAP strategy.

Reading the opinions in this thread perhaps I don't have to go pure SAP strategy. Maybe a hybrid like you mentioned go for better resorts but again only if the price is right.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Have been following this thread quite closely because, like the OP, I'm also in the "I want to maximize savings" camp. Because of that, I went to town drawing up every Excel model I could think of, including a version where I calculated points per night for my anticipated stays to figure out how many nights of vacation I could anticipate if I only stayed at the cheapest point option each time. Apparently, I'm also in the camp of I don't mind trading down if it means more nights at Disney! Anyway, it boiled down to this:

The first four options are all buying 150 points resale with the cost per point being the average reported ROFR currently. The last row is 150 points VGF direct using the current member add-on incentives and Magical Beginnings:

Resort	Cost / point	2023 Dues	2023 Dues Total	Est. 2042 Dues	Est. 2042 Dues	Lifetime CAGR	Average Increase	Initial buy in	Lifetime dues	Total over contract	Average cost per year	Cost PP over time	Cost / Year / Point	Years left
BoardWalk Villas	$107	$ 8.53	$ 1,706.18	$ 15.06	$ 3,012.00	3.03%	4.03%	$ 16,050	$23,961.68	$40,011.68	$2,222.87	$14.82	$14.48	18
Animal Kingdom Villas	$106	$ 8.81	$ 1,761.98	$ 16.24	$ 3,248.00	3.87%	4.44%	$ 15,900	$46,925.40	$62,825.40	$1,847.81	$12.32	$11.93	34
Saratoga Springs	$94	$ 7.86	$ 1,572.44	$ 15.41	$ 3,082.00	3.70%	5.05%	$ 14,100	$38,405.47	$52,505.47	$1,693.72	$11.29	$10.89	31
Grand Floridian	$150	$ 7.33	$ 1,466.00	$ 11.89	$ 2,378.00	2.80%	3.28%	$ 22,500	$46,558.11	$69,058.11	$1,684.34	$11.23	$10.99	41
VGF with incentives	161	$ 7.33	$1,466.00	$ 11.89	$2,378.00	2.80%	3.28%	$24,150.00	$46,558.11	$70,708.11	$1,724.59	$11.50	$11.26	41

Now my math and formulas may not be as great as what a financial whiz could do AND I ONLY CALCULATED DUES THROUGH 2042, but here's what it tells me:

If financial outlay is what you're after, then a 2042 resort obviously makes the most sense. But in less than 20 years, you're done and would have to start over. If you're in this longer term, then yes, SSR resale is the best economical value BUT cost per point over time tilts to VGF resale. The incremental difference to buy VGF direct for unrestricted points (which may matter more down the line) and for whatever Disney offers to blue card members, makes it a perfectly viable option. Direct or resale, that's also 10 extra years of vacations over SSR.

So if savings is your bottom line, is it total cost over time or cost per point over time that matters most? There's your answer for best SAP. And although we should never look at these things as investments, there's something to be said for the current resale breakdown holding fairly steady where you would be able to resell VGF for more than the others, especially as we get closer to expiration dates.

As always, happy for someone to correct my model/assumptions!

Excellent analysis and legwork. And yes I guess it comes down to do I care about initial outlay? Cost over life of contract? So many factors to consider. The only thing I would say though is your VGF with incentive price is for existing members. My price would be in the 170s. Dealbreaker? No but worth knowing to compare apples to apples.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

This is not a problem for me at the moment because I am not ready to buy but if I buy direct, I really do not want to buy Grand Floridian. I want to tour Riviera on our August vacation and really have an interest in Poly2 once it becomes available.

If you buy to keep forever the cost of direct seems to be a minor issue. It is the issue of the current outlay of cash that you need to get past.

There are so many different scenarios each with pro and con issues to consider.

For example, if you buy a 2042 resort you always have an easy option to walk away or buy a second reduced resale contract ending between 2050 to 2060. I would bet those contracts would be reduced costs same as the 2042 contracts are now.

If you think you love the 2 new resorts Riviera and Poly2 you could buy resale points there at reduced costs and deal with the restrictions. But if you have other resale points, you cover a significant number of resorts over the next 30 years.

Both are at a reduced current day cost.

I think this is the issue. I would love to buy direct but...not really sure the GF is it for me or my family. Nothing wrong with it. It's gorgeous. And although I went to the Riv the last trip and thought it was super elegant, there's no way I'm buying there never having stayed there. And I realize SSR points wouldn't allow me to ever do that. If the current incentives were for Poly let's say...I think I would've already have been an owner and posting on the other new owner threads. And I guess what's to say other great direct incentives don't come up later on for other properties. It's not like I have to either buy SSR or Direct and that's that forever. I appreciate the thread allowing me to talk out my choices taking into consideration all your valid opinions!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

It may be a bit higher, so by definition a bit less attractive. But that doesn't mean unattractive. At these prices, $1000-$1500 should not turn a good deal into a bad one.

An existing member getting 150 points for $161.1 after MB still has closing costs of $700-$800 which add about $5/point. If they split it into 3 contracts, that adds another ~$500, or $2/point. That can maybe be reduced a bit by foregoing title insurance. It the end, it's a few hundred here or there.

As a non owner, you may start $10/point higher. Maybe you can reduce the impact by foregoing title insurance and doing a single 150-point contract. Those choices, especially not splitting, may prove to be penny-wise-pound-foolish over time. Even at the new owner price, you're looking at prices that more than rival resales for VGF.

Just read this after posting above. You're right in the grand scheme the direct point difference between existing and new isn't a deal breaker. I'm just not sure VGF is the home resort for me. I could always use those as SAP but I would almost feel guilty like I was "wasting" them whereas with a SSR let's say I would go in knowing that I'm looking for anything else with availability at 7 months...and FWIW I travel in summer which, correct me if I'm wrong, has decent studio availability at many of the DVC resorts...even if they aren't always the standard view rooms.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

So this is where my mindset is as well. The GF incentives have pushed me to go from casually looking to really start making decisions. As a new owner I think I'd be paying well north of 170 pp for 150 pts. IF I can grab a really cheap SSR close to $90 then it feels like the savings difference would be pretty huge. And yes I get all the restrictions and 2042 coming off the books. Right now I can barely think about what I'll be having for dinner tomorrow much less where I'm vacationing in 2042. Yes I would love direct but that 24k can either buy a WHOLE lot more points or I can get about 150 for less than 15k which is like going on 2 very nice vacations.

part of what's giving me pause about VGF is...well...it's a beautiful resort...I always love passing through...not sure that's where I would really want to stay. And like you said I would feel bad buying into a beautiful flagship resort...spending a lot more upfront...and then using those points on a BW or AKV savannah stay. But the idea of being Direct at this price is what's really keeping it in the running.

Exactly! Wrote similar in above post. I'm not old nor am I very young and 19 years is a lot of Disney vacationing!

Don't fall into the paralysis by analysis. Numbers are important, but go with your heart. Buy the resort you love and where you want to stay and own. And buy enough points you can reasonably afford. The rest will take care of itself.

 

[intamin]

What would a typical 7 month availability look like at AKV? Say I went with SSR points. Let's also say July. Would I be able to get Jambo studios? Savannah?

Jambo studios are typically available at 7 months. Especially savanna views. Standards can be a little bit more sketchy at times but usually you can piece together a few days and then if necessary waitlist but again it’s usually not an issue. The standard rooms at Jambo house are either pool/savanna since the rooms don’t face the parking lot so IMO if I’m paying savanna points I’d rather use it at Kidani but if standard then Jambo. I just got back today from a value studio at Jambo and it actually had a savanna view and I saw two giraffes eating from outside my room. Just incredible. If you want multiple days club level/value then you probably need to own there. In general, there is a lot more Kidani availability compared to Jambo.

Regarding VGF, I stayed cash and realized it wasn’t for me. Love the lobby itself but in terms of the actual rooms.. eh I think I just prefer the buildings to be all in one like Riviera instead of being spread out. I also don’t think the style of the room was for us. Also the resort just felt very busy because of people passing through the lobby and then the number of those electric carts passing by me on the actual grounds themselves. Overall I still think it’s a very nice resort just not my vibe. Definitely try to stay there on points if you already own some and get a feel for if you like it or not.

 

[tom1944]

Reading the opinions in this thread perhaps I don't have to go pure SAP strategy. Maybe a hybrid like you mentioned go for better resorts but again only if the price is right.

I went resale at SSR first with really no consideration of buying direct.

Now that I do not have to buy at 100 or 150 direct points I may buy direct but start with smaller contracts paying cash as I save up for them..

My resale points get me through at least August 2025 so there is time to decide.

 

[Sandisw]

Just read this after posting above. You're right in the grand scheme the direct point difference between existing and new isn't a deal breaker. I'm just not sure VGF is the home resort for me. I could always use those as SAP but I would almost feel guilty like I was "wasting" them whereas with a SSR let's say I would go in knowing that I'm looking for anything else with availability at 7 months...and FWIW I travel in summer which, correct me if I'm wrong, has decent studio availability at many of the DVC resorts...even if they aren't always the standard view rooms.

I believe that getting a home resort that you will be happy with is the number one priority when deciding to buy. If VGF or RIV...the two direct WDW resorts currently available...are not the ones for you...then to me, its not worth owning something that may frustrate you to use later.

If you are happy with SSR to start, understand all the differences of buying resale in terms of where they can be used, etc. (which you do based on your other posts) and like what that offers you, go for it and worry about the rest later on.

I bought into DVC when BLT was built because the CR was my favorite place to be as a cash guest. Well, back then, RIV didn't exist and I never thought something could replace my beloved BLT. It has! And VGF has even replaced it as my 2nd choice resort...so, I have long sold BLT and BWV contracts to own where I love.

My point is that you never know what is coming down the road and if buying unrestricted points now means buying a resort not at the top of your list, then go resale and if/when something comes in the mix that you want to be at, you buy direct or make different decisions then!!!

 

[tom1944]

I believe that getting a home resort that you will be happy with is the number one priority when deciding to buy. If VGF or RIV...the two direct WDW resorts currently available...are not the ones for you...then to me, its not worth owning something that may frustrate you to use later.

If you are happy with SSR to start, understand all the differences of buying resale in terms of where they can be used, etc. (which you do based on your other posts) and like what that offers you, go for it and worry about the rest later on.

I bought into DVC when BLT was built because the CR was my favorite place to be as a cash guest. Well, back then, RIV didn't exist and I never thought something could replace my beloved BLT. It has! And VGF has even replaced it as my 2nd choice resort...so, I have long sold BLT and BWV contracts to own where I love.

My point is that you never know what is coming down the road and if buying unrestricted points now means buying a resort not at the top of your list, then go resale and if/when something comes in the mix that you want to be at, you buy direct or make different decisions then!!!

Were you lucky enough that the points you bought and sold were at a time period of rising prices so you sold for at least your original cost?

 

[Sandisw]

Were you lucky enough that the points you bought and sold were at a time period of rising prices so you sold for at least your original cost?

Most of them I sold for more....but my BLT ones were all at a loss. But, if you took into account what I got in value for vacations, it still worked out!

However, I can say that I made the most money on by BWV contracts...bought in 2012 at $53/$55 a point and sold for $118 and $120 (I believe) in 2019 and 2020.

I will add...because I am not one who thinks anyone should buy with resale value in mind...I would have sold regardless to get the home resorts I wanted, but maybe the timeline would have been different.

For example. I sold my 200 point SSR last year so I could get 300 VGF points vs. 150 VGF points. Even though I made some money off SSR, it still cost me about $10K to do the switch in points...but so happy that I did!

 

[CarolMN]

I believe that getting a home resort that you will be happy with is the number one priority when deciding to buy. If VGF or RIV...the two direct WDW resorts currently available...are not the ones for you...then to me, its not worth owning something that may frustrate you to use later.

Completely agree!

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think an element that isn't being discussed is whether or not your SAP are your only points, or simply points you use to SA. If you ONLY own SAP, then I think the resort is important, as you need to be happy if you end up stuck with that resort and can't trade out at 7 months. If you have points at your preferred resort, AND you have SAP at another resort, then it becomes a little less critical.

For example, our preferred resort is BRV, so we have just over 300 points there and make our primary reservations there (but HAVE used them to augment our SAP if we had them available). We also have 230 SSR/OKW points that we use solely as SAP. I've only ever made one reservation at SSR (our very first Welcome Home trip), and have never made one there since. Right now, I have several trips planned, including one the first week of December at BRV, made with my BRV points.

This morning I went online and at the far end of the seven month window (no specific dates, number of days, or room type to avoid censure), there is availability for our preferred length of stay and room type at BRV, SSR, RR, OKW, BLT, AKV, VGF, and BCV. The only resorts requiring a waitlist or we're completely shut out at are BWV (I think that's during the refurb period), Poly, and CCV. I would use my SSR SAP to book that trip, never worrying about whether or not I would be stuck there because I'd have made my initial reservation at that resort to begin with.

As an example, we are staying at BCV for 5 nights next month (7/9-7/14) and that trip was booked from the get-go with SAP.

***Also note: because 200 of our SAP are direct points, they can be used at any resort, including RR and VDH. Some of our BRV points are direct too, so they can be used to augment SAP at RR or VDH.

 

[MsChristy12]

True, some people will still book SSR with their MK resort points and there will always be those owners who do. I was actually at a DVC booth and the owners next to me had owned BCV for the past 20 years and had never once stayed at their home resort. Obviously they’re an exception but those people are out there. I used some RIV points to book an OKW studio near HH and an AKV club studio and value studio during the trip I’m currently on. Not like resale owners could book it anyways but the principle of booking a non resort resort with resort points isn’t unheard of. Plus sometimes you can only scrounge up enough points for an SSR stay for the desired duration. But with that being said, if I have the option I’m not giving up that home resort priority. On the other hand I’m one of the few considering bungalow points using BLT/CCV so ignore everything I just said LOL.

One of the couples at our dinner table on our last cruise, it's the same for them. They bought BLT direct, but never stayed there once! I always find that somewhat interesting....

 

[MsChristy12]

I believe that getting a home resort that you will be happy with is the number one priority when deciding to buy.

 

[Jayunit09]

I was going to ask this but now it has been brought up. If you already own points at your favorite resort (CCV for us), is it reasonable to grab 150 direct at VGF to use as SAP later on in life. Renting them out for a few years that we don't need them? My only concern is if something else comes along that we would really want but spent the $$ on VGF direct now. I think they could be sold once the resort is sold out for a reasonable amount, but as its only SAP for us, debating if we should pull the trigger.

 

[intamin]

I was going to ask this but now it has been brought up. If you already own points at your favorite resort (CCV for us), is it reasonable to grab 150 direct at VGF to use as SAP later on in life. Renting them out for a few years that we don't need them? My only concern is if something else comes along that we would really want but spent the $$ on VGF direct now. I think they could be sold once the resort is sold out for a reasonable amount, but as its only SAP for us, debating if we should pull the trigger.

That's a possibility, something else you could consider is buying resale CCV to supplement your current direct CCV points and then if another resort opens up that catches your eye you likely wouldn't take as much of a hit on the resale market when selling the resale contract. However, VGF incentives are so good right now, the hit you'd take is likely minimal when resold and would also be a negligible difference to get access to those resale restricted resorts at 7 months while also diversifying your portfolio so IMO can't go wrong either way.

 

[Unclelude]

Moo,

I'm not against 'buy where you want to stay'.

I'd also offer this from our ( since 2020) experience. We are huge into value. We are pretty much own SAP at SSR. I can only speak for DEC/JAN/MAY/SEP bookings ( I've actually held reservations as place holders in the spring break timeframe, but couldn't get myself to stay cuz of point charts)

I haven't had any issues getting reservations at 7 months for these timeframes. We've stayed at BCV, BWV, AUL, SSR, OKW, VB, HHI twice, AKL twice... upcoming BRV, VB in Sept. and treehouses this xmas.... This is booking mostly studios. ( and a 2 BR at HH... and treehouses upcoming) In some cases it requires some effort stalking and such, but for me it's almost entertainment.

Which leads to my next thought - which you've probably run into many, many times on the boards - once you go bigger than studios, you won't want to go back. When I read this I thought no way, not me... cheap studios all the way... after the 2BR stay at HH... full kitchen+sleeping surfaces+space ... it's like the Borg ... resistance was futile... ( we are family of 5, older kids ... so when its just my wife and I - we will still do studios ... when the kids are with us, it will be 1BR+ )

I mention this last thought b/c 1BR *really* opens up the 7month availability...

You also mentioned the current member direct specials... those can get really good. Two come to mind ...couple years ago... 300 AUL for $136 (ish)... the most recent ended just this last May - 200 AKL for $143 (ish)....

Good Luck!

PS just saw a 100pt DEC SSR loaded with banked 2021 and banked 2022 points up for sale
PPS ETA I constantly stalk... you mentioned July at AKL.. generally speaking there is availability... I've toyed with 4th of July trip ( heat and point charts keep me away) ... September (still hot) seems to be the most difficult cuz some of cheapest point charts...

 

[sethschroeder]

So like I was saying above I see your point but math wise assuming SSR in the low 90's vs. just as an example VGF direct in the mid to high 170s

.....

Yes let's compare direct vs resale and say how it's less to buy SSR resale....

 

[sethschroeder]

I haven't had any issues getting reservations at 7 months for these timeframes. We've stayed at BCV, BWV, AUL, SSR, OKW, VB, HHI twice, AKL twice... upcoming BRV, VB in Sept. and treehouses this xmas.... This is booking mostly studios. ( and a 2 BR at HH... and treehouses upcoming) In some cases it requires some effort stalking and such, but for me it's almost entertainment.

When? In 2021 when it was easy because of the pandemic? Or this year as it's still ramping up for 7 month difficulty.

People at BWV were have issues getting rooms in the fall during the priority window even.

SAP means be okay with staying at your home resort or be more flexible.

Additionally as pointed out it's less likely you get the lower point required rooms as well.