Best SAP resort?

[Sandisw]

BWV and BCV will almost certainly easier to book after 2042 for those eligible, for two reasons:
- 20-25% of points at the remaining resorts will be resale and restricted, this makes them ineligibles to book there
- almost certainly DVC will refurbish the resorts and resell them with much inflated point charts. One of the contributing factor of their popularity is how cheap they are point wise. What if they are resold with a point chart comparable with VGF? This will probably depress demand.

I think the discussion was about those who have resale only points to use in 2042....and what will trading look like for the resorts left.

As I said, I think that those who own at places like SSR, OKW, and AKV...who want to get into the near park resorts still open to them as resale buyers will be harder than today because those owners at those other resorts, who have restricted points, won't have the Epcot area as an option anymore...so not sure they will leave at the 7 month mark like they do today.

 

[Sandisw]

Most OKW contracts will be Disneys on February 1 2042, and it will take years to sell them off with only 15 years left on them, if they even manage to (or try to). So that is of zero concern.

VB and HHI are functionally SAP resorts for WDW purposes. Far more points trading into WDW than heading the other way - look no further than those resorts awful cold weather occupancy for proof (or Vero, just occupancy period). Those points all go away.

There’s roughly 56 and a half million WDW points among resorts you can trade around in with a resale contract. 9.9 million - 17.5% - of those will expire in 2042. That’s about the number of points added by Poly and VGF1 and VGF2 in recent years. Was trading around really hard before those were added? (No).

Between all of that, color me unconcerned.

But, trading is not equal....people are not trading in to SSR, for example, at the same rate that they are trading out. And, we don't know how many OKW points will still be floating around after 2042 to be used by owners.

Plus, points owned by DVD can still be used at 7 months to snag rooms to rent for cash...so its very likely they will be part of the mix.

So, the question is, will owners at BLT, CCV, PVB, and VGF have places they want to trade to that equals out for those trading in....and my guess is they wont...which means more people competing for those specific resorts at 7 months...which very well may make it harder for SAP.

Obviously, some are not concerned, and that is okay, but I still think people need to understand that things can and do change...and yes, BWV has become harder to get into since I became an owner in 2009....and my guess is that is due to the addition of more points into the system at places who want to stay there.

 

[tom1944]

But, trading is not equal....people are not trading in to SSR, for example, at the same rate that they are trading out. And, we don't know how many OKW points will still be floating around after 2042 to be used by owners.

Plus, points owned by DVD can still be used at 7 months to snag rooms to rent for cash...so its very likely they will be part of the mix.

So, the question is, will owners at BLT, CCV, PVB, and VGF have places they want to trade to that equals out for those trading in....and my guess is they wont...which means more people competing for those specific resorts at 7 months...which very well may make it harder for SAP.

Obviously, some are not concerned, and that is okay, but I still think people need to understand that things can and do change...and yes, BWV has become harder to get into since I became an owner in 2009....and my guess is that is due to the addition of more points into the system at places who want to stay there.

This makes sense.

For us 2042 is a long time away and if I can only stay at SSR at that point it is fine with me. My granddaughter will be 23 by then and if she has to drive to the parks, it is not a concern. My wife and I will be 84 and Disney Springs holds more interest than the parks by then for us.

My granddaughter and daughter are getting these points for free so if they want a better location, they can handle that on their own in 2042.

 

[DonMacGregor]

First off, I'll be 78 in 2042 and am reasonably certain I'll have had a decent number of WDW vacations under my belt by then, so just owning 2042 points doesn't give me any anxiety whatsoever. For a younger person, that might be much different calculation.

Having said that, we currently own just over 300 BRV points that we use, almost exclusively, to stay at BRV. Conversely, we have 150 points (our original direct points) that we own at SSR for use, almost exclusively, as SAP. We also have a small OKW contract that was too good to pass up ($80 PP) that we have to augment SAP, although I'd never suggest buying 2042 points specifically for SAP. As an aside, all of our AUL points (200) are used only at AUL.

We might augment those SAP points with some of the BRV points, but that would only be after the SAP had been pulled for the reservation first. I even went so far as to buy all of our AUL points in a different UY than all of our WDW points, both for seasonal travel preferences, but also so there's much less temptation to use them for a WDW trip (part of my "no walking, no stalking, no borrowing, no transfers" soft rule).

 

[sethschroeder]

Most OKW contracts will be Disneys on February 1 2042, and it will take years to sell them off with only 15 years left on them, if they even manage to (or try to). So that is of zero concern.

VB and HHI are functionally SAP resorts for WDW purposes. Far more points trading into WDW than heading the other way - look no further than those resorts awful cold weather occupancy for proof (or Vero, just occupancy period). Those points all go away.

There’s roughly 56 and a half million WDW points among resorts you can trade around in with a resale contract. 9.9 million - 17.5% - of those will expire in 2042. That’s about the number of points added by Poly and VGF1 and VGF2 in recent years. Was trading around really hard before those were added? (No).

Between all of that, color me unconcerned.

Much of OKW will be turned over and DVC will likely incentivize those points being sold as well.

So not having VB/HHI as options to draw out WDW resale points is a good thing? Those rooms don't go empty they get used and thus have people from VGF, POLY, BLT, CCV booking there freeing up inventory.

So where are the MK resort owners booking in 2043? Why are they moving to SSR or OKW or AKV? They are giving up their MK location for....? Right now they might want a non-WDW trip to HHI or staying around Epcot. Those options are gone and will lock up the system more easily.

Regarding POLY there is still no guarantee how it will be sold either way.

 

[CarolynFH]

although I'd never suggest buying 2042 points specifically for SAP

Hmm, there might actually be some utility to that, especially as resale prices drop as 2042 gets closer. Just think about it this way, when the 2042 resorts go poof and there are fewer options to use resale SAPs, your responsibility to pay dues on those points goes poof too.

 

[Unclelude]

Team SSR for me ... I think this resort has the least risk for MF hikes.

Sooo many points spreads the cost out more. It is a big property, but It doesn't have carpet/indoor hallways etc to maintain... vs OKW I think they get more rooms per area via the outdoor hallways...

... I'm really interested in price and charts for new poly and ft wilderness ... esp. fees at wilderness...

 

[Cupcake232]

Team Saratoga!

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

So where are the MK resort owners booking in 2043? Why are they moving to SSR or OKW or AKV? They are giving up their MK location for....? Right now they might want a non-WDW trip to HHI or staying around Epcot. Those options are gone and will lock up the system more easily.

Sure! Lots of people trade out for lower point rooms, it happens a lot. OKW GVs are CHEAP. Or they want a studio and their resort is booked up (but there’s lots of larger rooms available to trade into). Or they trade to Riviera or VDH or VDH or Ft Wilderness Cabins or any future resort. Most owners will be able to trade to wherever, and I’ll be able to swoop in. If the resell BCV or BWV that will just exacerbate that. I won’t be able to trade there, but I’ll be able to trade into the resorts those traders vacate.

If you think people don’t sleep around with MK resort points you’re not looking at Poly availability now. Most people bought their resort because it was the one that happened to be for sale.

 

[intamin]

Sure! Lots of people trade out for lower point rooms, it happens a lot. OKW GVs are CHEAP. Or they want a studio and their resort is booked up (but there’s lots of larger rooms available to trade into). Or they trade to Riviera or VDH or VDH or Ft Wilderness Cabins or any future resort. Most owners will be able to trade to wherever, and I’ll be able to swoop in. If the resell BCV or BWV that will just exacerbate that. I won’t be able to trade there, but I’ll be able to trade into the resorts those traders vacate.

If you think people don’t sleep around with MK resort points you’re not looking at Poly availability now. Most people bought their resort because it was the one that happened to be for sale.

True, some people will still book SSR with their MK resort points and there will always be those owners who do. I was actually at a DVC booth and the owners next to me had owned BCV for the past 20 years and had never once stayed at their home resort. Obviously they’re an exception but those people are out there. I used some RIV points to book an OKW studio near HH and an AKV club studio and value studio during the trip I’m currently on. Not like resale owners could book it anyways but the principle of booking a non resort resort with resort points isn’t unheard of. Plus sometimes you can only scrounge up enough points for an SSR stay for the desired duration. But with that being said, if I have the option I’m not giving up that home resort priority. On the other hand I’m one of the few considering bungalow points using BLT/CCV so ignore everything I just said LOL.

 

[Sandisw]

Sure! Lots of people trade out for lower point rooms, it happens a lot. OKW GVs are CHEAP. Or they want a studio and their resort is booked up (but there’s lots of larger rooms available to trade into). Or they trade to Riviera or VDH or VDH or Ft Wilderness Cabins or any future resort. Most owners will be able to trade to wherever, and I’ll be able to swoop in. If the resell BCV or BWV that will just exacerbate that. I won’t be able to trade there, but I’ll be able to trade into the resorts those traders vacate.

If you think people don’t sleep around with MK resort points you’re not looking at Poly availability now. Most people bought their resort because it was the one that happened to be for sale.

Resale owners at those MK resorts existing after 2042 won’t be able to trade to RIV, VDH or future resorts though.

I don’t think anyone has said they don’t trade at all, but they certainly don’t trade regularly to SSR, OKW and AKV at the same rate that those resort owners try to trade into the near park resorts.

There is a reason at 7 months thst the big three are still available because people buy them for SAP more than people buy the near park resorts as SAP.

And, if lots of OKW points are owned by Disney, those GV may not be an option either.

Plus, direct owners will also be trying for not only the new resorts to trade but the original ones as well.

Not sure why its a stretch to think that rooms at popular resorts which are not easy to book now will be even harder when the popular resorts of BWV and BCV are gone.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Hmm, there might actually be some utility to that, especially as resale prices drop as 2042 gets closer. Just think about it this way, when the 2042 resorts go poof and there are fewer options to use resale SAPs, your responsibility to pay dues on those points goes poof too.

True, but if you're a young family, you either have to augment those points with resorts that expire later between now and 2041, or start from scratch in 2043. Like I said, it is fine for me, but if I was a younger me and I knew that all my SAP points would go "poof" in 18 years, I might think twice.

 

[RoseGold]

OKW is way overpriced, because Disney ROFRs a lot of it and extends it (which you can't do). I would only buy OKW for the GV, which is the opposite of SAP.

If you believe money invested is worth anything, there is no way any of the other suspects compete with SSR, especially at current pricing. I suppose Aulani is in the running (at least at current dues/taxes), but I wouldn't buy Aulani for many reasons, beaten to death in other threads.

I think there are other good buys overall, like BLT and CCV, but that isn't a pure SAP strategy.

 

[SkampyOne]

Have been following this thread quite closely because, like the OP, I'm also in the "I want to maximize savings" camp. Because of that, I went to town drawing up every Excel model I could think of, including a version where I calculated points per night for my anticipated stays to figure out how many nights of vacation I could anticipate if I only stayed at the cheapest point option each time. Apparently, I'm also in the camp of I don't mind trading down if it means more nights at Disney! Anyway, it boiled down to this:

The first four options are all buying 150 points resale with the cost per point being the average reported ROFR currently. The last row is 150 points VGF direct using the current member add-on incentives and Magical Beginnings:

Resort	Cost / point	2023 Dues	2023 Dues Total	Est. 2042 Dues	Est. 2042 Dues	Lifetime CAGR	Average Increase	Initial buy in	Lifetime dues	Total over contract	Average cost per year	Cost PP over time	Cost / Year / Point	Years left
BoardWalk Villas	$107	$ 8.53	$ 1,706.18	$ 15.06	$ 3,012.00	3.03%	4.03%	$ 16,050	$23,961.68	$40,011.68	$2,222.87	$14.82	$14.48	18
Animal Kingdom Villas	$106	$ 8.81	$ 1,761.98	$ 16.24	$ 3,248.00	3.87%	4.44%	$ 15,900	$46,925.40	$62,825.40	$1,847.81	$12.32	$11.93	34
Saratoga Springs	$94	$ 7.86	$ 1,572.44	$ 15.41	$ 3,082.00	3.70%	5.05%	$ 14,100	$38,405.47	$52,505.47	$1,693.72	$11.29	$10.89	31
Grand Floridian	$150	$ 7.33	$ 1,466.00	$ 11.89	$ 2,378.00	2.80%	3.28%	$ 22,500	$46,558.11	$69,058.11	$1,684.34	$11.23	$10.99	41
VGF with incentives	161	$ 7.33	$1,466.00	$ 11.89	$2,378.00	2.80%	3.28%	$24,150.00	$46,558.11	$70,708.11	$1,724.59	$11.50	$11.26	41

"I want to maximize savings"

Now my math and formulas may not be as great as what a financial whiz could do AND I ONLY CALCULATED DUES THROUGH 2042, but here's what it tells me:

If financial outlay is what you're after, then a 2042 resort obviously makes the most sense. But in less than 20 years, you're done and would have to start over. If you're in this longer term, then yes, SSR resale is the best economical value BUT cost per point over time tilts to VGF resale. The incremental difference to buy VGF direct for unrestricted points (which may matter more down the line) and for whatever Disney offers to blue card members, makes it a perfectly viable option. Direct or resale, that's also 10 extra years of vacations over SSR.

So if savings is your bottom line, is it total cost over time or cost per point over time that matters most? There's your answer for best SAP. And although we should never look at these things as investments, there's something to be said for the current resale breakdown holding fairly steady where you would be able to resell VGF for more than the others, especially as we get closer to expiration dates.

As always, happy for someone to correct my model/assumptions!

 

[tom1944]

This is not a problem for me at the moment because I am not ready to buy but if I buy direct, I really do not want to buy Grand Floridian. I want to tour Riviera on our August vacation and really have an interest in Poly2 once it becomes available.

If you buy to keep forever the cost of direct seems to be a minor issue. It is the issue of the current outlay of cash that you need to get past.

There are so many different scenarios each with pro and con issues to consider.

For example, if you buy a 2042 resort you always have an easy option to walk away or buy a second reduced resale contract ending between 2050 to 2060. I would bet those contracts would be reduced costs same as the 2042 contracts are now.

If you think you love the 2 new resorts Riviera and Poly2 you could buy resale points there at reduced costs and deal with the restrictions. But if you have other resale points, you cover a significant number of resorts over the next 30 years.

Both are at a reduced current day cost.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

“There's your answer for best SAP. “
Where does Riviera direct land on this list with current incentives and a longer contract?

 

[Sandisw]

“There's your answer for best SAP. “
Where does Riviera direct land on this list with current incentives and a longer contract?

For new owners, I think it’s around $170ish? I think it pretty much makes it a great deal as well.
I wish I could add more right now.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

These are a sample of current asking prices -

SSR - 150pts - $95pp - with dues = $10.94 per point per year

CCV - 150pts - $135pp - with dues = $11.04 per point per year

BLT - 160pts - $135pp - with dues = $11.04 per point per year

When you break them out this way, there is little difference.


VGF - 220 pts - $154pp - with dues $11.18 per point per year
While this very close to the best SAP pack, it differs because its direct cost is so close that resale isn’t worth it.

Ok just catching up with my question here. So the PPY that you laid out...that is over the life of the contract I presume? And it includes in it the annual dues but I'm also guessing without any potential price hikes?

And the only problem with the VGF number is that I'm not a current owner so it would be closer to mid 170s I believe?

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Between SSR, BRV and OKW, it’s SSR by a mile. OKW’s dues are too high and then add in a potential 2042 expiration date. BRV again the 2042 expiration date. SSR has the longer duration and cheaper dues. I wouldn’t recommend OKW/BRV unless you really like staying there in which case they’re technically not SAP but just a resort you like. I know you brought up AKV but keep in mind how high the dues are at AKV because of the savanna. I own AKV because I like the resort and want to be able to book Jambo whenever and for me paying the premium on the dues is worth it but if you’re not picky or don’t see yourself staying there frequently then I wouldn’t recommend it. I also liked that it gives me a chance at value studios/1BR/2BR although there’s not that many of them. So like everything in DVC it’s very subjective to your own tastes but if you truly have no preference then SSR. Another good option to consider would be CCV. It’s upfront cost is higher but it does have 14 more years left than SSR and on a price per point basis is very similar.

What would a typical 7 month availability look like at AKV? Say I went with SSR points. Let's also say July. Would I be able to get Jambo studios? Savannah?

Also when you go stay at BLT or VGF or BWV or elsewhere with your SAP points realize you will be getting the more expensive room. If however you bought at those resorts you would be booking the cheaper category various years instead.

I do understand what you're saying with this point. I've looked a few sample point charts and there would still be a margin of savings assuming I got a very good deal on let's say SSR points and I went up one category in the studios from standard to let's say pool/or whatever view. But again yes I get the idea that I may not be maximizing points at 7 months.

So your SAP math just went out the window when I buy where I want to stay and book a room 10-20% less.

So like I was saying above I see your point but math wise assuming SSR in the low 90's vs. just as an example VGF direct in the mid to high 170s (again I'm not a current owner so wouldn't get the extra savings I think that difference would overcome a yearly 10-20% assuming I never get a standard view. Also I'm thinking there would be specific times I'd look to book higher categories like a Savannah view. I appreciate you bringing up the math though. It's definitely worth thinking about.

We chose CCV for our SAP's. The number one reason is we love the resort - it's our favorite, so if we get "stuck" there we are perfectly happy with that (and that is not the case for some of the usual SAP options). The upfront price is higher than some, but the main deciding factor for us was the point chart. It's a 2068 resort with a 2042 point chart. We do use our CCV points as SAP's at resorts with higher point charts, but just for short stays. When we're camping out for 9 to 10 days at Christmas, our points go significantly farther at CCV than say VGF or BLT.

Awesome points! I also love the resort. One of the best/nostalgic vibes in all of WDW. If I decide to go SAP then I would definitely be willing to pay slightly more for CCV assuming the deal is right.

150 direct points for $161pp is crazy good deal for VGF. Not sure why anyone would buy resale compared to that. It's also got the lowest dues.

My points would be closer to the mid to high 170s as a non owner though correct? That makes it a little less attractive?

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I paid half that for SSR. That’s not an exaggeration. Half. That’s why.

So this is where my mindset is as well. The GF incentives have pushed me to go from casually looking to really start making decisions. As a new owner I think I'd be paying well north of 170 pp for 150 pts. IF I can grab a really cheap SSR close to $90 then it feels like the savings difference would be pretty huge. And yes I get all the restrictions and 2042 coming off the books. Right now I can barely think about what I'll be having for dinner tomorrow much less where I'm vacationing in 2042. Yes I would love direct but that 24k can either buy a WHOLE lot more points or I can get about 150 for less than 15k which is like going on 2 very nice vacations.

The big perk with CCV and BLT in particular is you can use it as SAP and not feel bad about the price per point as it’s comparable to SSR. Like if I were using VGC I’d feel extremely guilty using those points at anywhere on WDW property or even BCV/BWV. However, both CCV and BLT have valuable home resort booking windows while still having a good price per point. CCV for Christmas time especially and BLT for major firework holidays like July 4th and New Years. VGF is definitely tempting right now but even so it’s booking window is not as important to me as the other 2 but if VGF was my taste I’d be considering adding direct there.

part of what's giving me pause about VGF is...well...it's a beautiful resort...I always love passing through...not sure that's where I would really want to stay. And like you said I would feel bad buying into a beautiful flagship resort...spending a lot more upfront...and then using those points on a BW or AKV savannah stay. But the idea of being Direct at this price is what's really keeping it in the running.

2042 is 19 years away... That's enough time to raise another child (or grandchild) from diapers to college and go through all the princess, star wars, and marvel phases all over again. Using SAP points may or may not be more difficult in 2042, but those of us who make it to 2042 will be 19 years older and most likely will have other things to worry about by then

Exactly! Wrote similar in above post. I'm not old nor am I very young and 19 years is a lot of Disney vacationing!