Anyone NOT Worried About the Upcoming "Crisis"?

[C.Ann]

I'm not worried as in "the sky is falling" - and my concerns don't come from the news (the only "news" I usually get is if I get on the DIS).. My concerns come from what I see with my own eyes and what I have to pay out because of the state of the economy..

So - while I'm not in a panic, I'm not running around spending money willy-nilly either..

 

[RACHELSMOM1]

Not worried here. Lived thru the 60s and 70s - once bought a car at 18% interest rate (ouch!!). Life does go in cycles. Have lived thru poverty, then life got easier. As long as we have family, our love of God, and each other, we are sustained.

 

[loco4dis]

Not trying to interject reality here, but you did in fact interject politics.

I don't think anyone benefits by sticking their heads in the sand to political/financial reality. I agree, there are abuses in the media because of the market and also because of bias, but pretending there is no problem, does not mean there is no problem.

Consumer prices are rising for many reasons, including the demand for oil from China, as you stated. Unfortunately, scientists have determined that drilling all of our own "vast" oil resources would barely put a dent in our demand and would be gone before our kids are adults.

The sky isn't falling, but we need to stop shooting the messenger and find some real leadership and creative solutions to problems...not to get political.

Respectfully, "scientists" have determined no such thing; pandering politicians and environmental activists have. We have large untapped oil resources, including potentially the equivalent of 2 trillion barrels of oil in shale deposits in the west, which we should be exploring and developing the technologies to mine. It's certainly not the only solution, and should be combined with investing in new technologies, but reducing our dependence on hostile nations for oil even by 20 or 30 percent would be a good thing. Criticizing the media's reporting on economic issues is not "shooting the messenger" as their "sky is falling" reporting can very negatively impact markets and consumer behavior. They aren't simply reporting the problem; they are part of the problem. As an example, I remember recently reading an article about a consumer confidence survey. It asked respondents 1) How do you think the economy is doing? The majority said "terrible." Then it asked 2) How is your personal economic picture? And the majority said "Great!" I think that disconnect can be traced to the media's effect on people's perceptions. They may be doing OK, but they've "heard" that everyone else is falling apart.

 

[Kay1]

Respectfully, "scientists" have determined no such thing; pandering politicians and environmental activists have. We have large untapped oil resources, including potentially the equivalent of 2 trillion barrels of oil in shale deposits in the west, which we should be exploring and developing the technologies to mine. It's certainly not the only solution, and should be combined with investing in new technologies, but reducing our dependence on hostile nations for oil even by 20 or 30 percent would be a good thing.

Actually, I believe Mo Yo is correct. Here's a link I wish you'd look at:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

This man has studied Peak Oil for some time and addresses everything you say. Simply put, at a certain point existing oil is just too expensive to bother with. Everything the site owner says is backed up with links including scientists. Actually, I think many politicians do use this issue to divide and confuse us.

 

[gina2000]

I disagree -- somewhat. We've raised our idea of what a middle-class family should have, and that makes it more difficult for people to fit into the mold. My husband's grandmother raised three children in a two-bedroom house/one bath house without air conditioning (I believe her children were all born in the 1940s). Three children shared a bedroom. The family owned one car, one TV, and one phone. Mom stayed home, cooked, sewed, and was frugal with her husband's paycheck. She has only been out of the state a few times in her whole life. My grandmother lived in a more rural area and had more land, but she raised her two children in much the same way; I believe they had a few more vacations, etc. -- maybe they were middle-middle class while my husband's grandmother was lower-middle class.

Today's average house is more than twice the size of that house. Once the children are old enough to drive, it's usual to have cars even for the teens. TVs, ipods, and other electronics -- even for those of us who are frugal -- waiver in that gray area between want and need. Few of us in the South do without air conditioning. We eat out, we travel, we shop. Even "poor kids" eat at restaurants, get loads of gifts at Christmas, and have themed birthday parties. Our middle class expectations are considerably higher than those of our middle-class counterparts only a few decades ago. I think a large portion of the problem is that we've come to expect so much more from life. I agree with that; however, we as a nation have over-spent for years now. We've consumed more than we needed, and we've gone into debt to do it. We've raised the economy to an artificial level, which cannot be sustained -- and now that we've reached this impossible-to-maintain level, we're hit with these gas prices, the housing crunch, and more. It's a matter of too many things coming together at once.

I think my biggest problem with the economy's evolution is the subtle changes we're anticipating but have not yet felt. I'm referring to things that our parents have and we will not. Medical benefits for life and/or reasonably priced medical care have largely become a thing of the past as have corporate sponsored pensions. The eminent demise of Social Security is another issue that will drastically change retirement for most people. These economic changes will alter the face of our society over the next 20-30 years and affect not only retirees but those who have to support them. These problems will alter and change the face of American society far more than material expectations and desires.

Middle class values have definitely changed as have middle class aspirations. Credit has largely altered the availability of money for people at all levels of society. Misuse of credit will create problems in the short term; availability of money will be tight in the short term. The problems cited above, however, seem to be here to stay and will drastically alter our spending patterns as society marches toward an older, less dynamic state.

 

[dvcgirl]

I think my biggest problem with the economy's evolution is the subtle changes we're anticipating but have not yet felt. I'm referring to things that our parents have and we will not. Medical benefits for life and/or reasonably priced medical care have largely become a thing of the past as have corporate sponsored pensions. The eminent demise of Social Security is another issue that will drastically change retirement for most people. These economic changes will alter the face of our society over the next 20-30 years and affect not only retirees but those who have to support them. These problems will alter and change the face of American society far more than material expectations and desires.

Middle class values have definitely changed as have middle class aspirations. Credit has largely altered the availability of money for people at all levels of society. Misuse of credit will create problems in the short term; availability of money will be tight in the short term. The problems cited above, however, seem to be here to stay and will drastically alter our spending patterns as society marches toward an older, less dynamic state.

I think both you and Mrs Pete have great points. I agree with Mrs Pete in that we *have* raised our expectations in our middle class. A "starter home" ain't what it used to be. The problem is that a whole lot of the fuel for that big "step-up" in lifestyle was provided by easy credit, borrowed money and spending nearly every penny we make. And so, to a great degree, the middle class leveraged its way up a step or two in the lifestyle department. We know that this is a fact. We have only to look to our national savings rate, our IRA balances, our 401K balances, our debt levels......they tell the whole story.

And I completely agree with your thoughts on the "subtle changes we're anticipating but have not yet felt". They're subtle now, but will become more and more of a drag as we move forward. We're either going to begin to face our entitlement issues, and soon, or we'll end up bankrupt as a nation. Same with respect to our trade deficit and our national debt level. Most of the middle class and everyone above them won't be getting the benefits that they've been promised, especially with respect to Medicare.

I'm 40, and the retirement that my parents generation is experiencing now is not the one that my peers will experience. And yet, when surveyed, people my age believe that their quality of life will go *up* in retirement. They couldn't be more wrong.

 

[dvcgirl]

Respectfully, "scientists" have determined no such thing; pandering politicians and environmental activists have. We have large untapped oil resources, including potentially the equivalent of 2 trillion barrels of oil in shale deposits in the west, which we should be exploring and developing the technologies to mine. It's certainly not the only solution, and should be combined with investing in new technologies, but reducing our dependence on hostile nations for oil even by 20 or 30 percent would be a good thing.

Yes, in flipping through talk radio stations I've heard right-wing radio hosts go on and on about our "vast oil shale deposits". Before you jump on me, I have voted for republicans.

I'm not denying that we have these shale deposits. We do. However if you do just a little bit of research you'd read how much energy is required to heat the shale, get it to the surface and then refine it. The amount of water required alone is astounding. And the process is in no way perfected. To get that process to a mass scale is decades away.

It's the same thing with ANWR....all you read is that there are somewhere from 4-20 billion barrels of oil there. Sounds great, but at the most, we'd get one million barrels a day out of there.....if we were lucky.... less than 5% of our daily oil consumption. And again, ANWR wouldn't provide one drop of oil for at least 5 years if we started drilling today. Five years from now it will more like 3% of our consumption unless we begin to conserve.

Now I'm not saying that we shouldn't drill in our own territories. I think that we're going to have to do that to help us make the transition to renewable sources. However, it's not as easy as turning on the "oil shale" spigot or tapping into ANWR and flipping off the Saudis.

 

[Ciao Mickey]

I'm a pretty optimistic gal. I'm old enough to have lived through the turbulent 60's and this seems like a walk in the park as compared to those times. We waivered between worried about being blow to bits by the Russians, being killed in the riots over civil rights or being killed in Vietnam.
We will survive this also.

Aren't you comparing apples to oranges?

The economy of the 1960's was stable. Jobs were plentiful. Men (and women) could support a family on a blue-collar salary. Manufacturing was still here in the USA. Not like today where almost everything is made overseas.

Job security does not exist today like it did back in the 1960's. We keep bleeding jobs overseas and we have a huge illegal alien problem that our short-sighted politicians refuse to do anything about. Not to mention the war that is sucking us dry.

I don't think we are at "crisis" level yet, but if we continue on our current path, who knows what's in store for our future generations.

 

[Mo-Yo]

Now I'm not saying that we shouldn't drill in our own territories. I think that we're going to have to do that to help us make the transition to renewable sources. However, it's not as easy as turning on the "oil shale" spigot or tapping into ANWR and flipping off the Saudis.

And in the mean time, I believe we won't see much relief from energy costs...unfortunately.

I know the economy goes in cycles, but some of the things we are facing - dependence on non-renewable energy, debt, healthcare costs/issues, mortgage issues - have been on the radar for a long time. Plus, many people have improved their standard of living through acquiring massive debt. And as a country our debt is increasing every day because of the war.

We've been putting our heads in the sand about a lot of stuff. The sky isn't falling, but nobody is making this stuff up.

Still, I am very hopeful we will put our ingenuity and talents toward facing some of these problems. It's what our grandparents' generation did during the Depression and World War II, and with good leadership I believe we can, too.

 

[eliza61]

Aren't you comparing apples to oranges?

The economy of the 1960's was stable. Jobs were plentiful. Men (and women) could support a family on a blue-collar salary. Manufacturing was still here in the USA. Not like today where almost everything is made overseas.

Job security does not exist today like it did back in the 1960's. We keep bleeding jobs overseas and we have a huge illegal alien problem that our short-sighted politicians refuse to do anything about. Not to mention the war that is sucking us dry. Yes, we did it was called the Vietnam War.I don't think we are at "crisis" level yet, but if we continue on our current path, who knows what's in store for our future generations.

Not at all, I wasn't really comparing economic situations I was thinking more "national mindset" and that is very similar. Just like today, the news was filled with "The nation is going down the toilet quickly" stories. We weren't worried about our financial futures because many of us did not believe we were going to have a future, especially if you were a teenager. Every story was either: the number of kids being killed in Vietnam, the horrible treatment of African Americans in the South and the riots on college campus. If you think the news today is bad, try looking at young kids your age being torn apart by german shepards day after day or better yet try have nuclear drills in your elementary school (never understood how I was going to be protected by getting under my desk. ) and unemployment in the minority community was hovering around 20% so we've always had economic struggles to contend with.


Basically my point is, that we have always had doom and gloom reports and we've always had horrible presidents. we've managed to survive.

 

[Jakesmom504]

You gotta have priorities!

I know what you mean though, I used to worry about every little thing and I finally had to let it all go. Good luck with school! That's one thing I've always regretted - not finishing school!

Thank you! I have an interview with a nursing school in a few weeks so I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[Ciao Mickey]

Not to belittle your comment, but I hate when people talk about a "fixed" income, as if those of us who aren't retired yet can just increase our income with the snap of our fingers.

Realistically, with things the way they are, most of us aren't getting raises or bonuses anyway. I work in the non-profit sector and I'm wondering if I need to start looking for a job soon. That scares the crap out of me because things aren't exactly good in the part-time with morning hours job market.

The difference is you as a younger person can find a new better-paying job, or find a second or third job to supplement your income. What is a person, who is in their 70's, 80's or 90's, to do when they are too old for the job market?

 

[Ciao Mickey]

I certainly agree with Loco. The "news" you are getting is a load of crap for two reasons.

1.) The "news" business is just that...a business. They are doing what they need to do to increase ad revenue, etc. Negative news sells, so of course you wouldnt expect to hear anything positive about the economy.

2.) It is unprecedented that you have "news" sources openly endorsing political candidates (NBC is BY FAR the worst, see: Matthews, Olbermann, etc). How can you expect to hear anything good about an economy that is half run by a political party that is other than that of Obama's? It's truly unbelievable.

And on another note, everyone is quick to blame Bush for everything. We call it Bushderangement Syndrome (BS). Let's not forget who has controlled Congress for the past year and a half.

And last, the blame most needs to be put on the American consumer. This could even be you. For example. "Wow, look at that nice new 50" plasma TV over there, I HAVE to have that!" Problem is, that person may not have a single dollar to their name. VISA to the rescue! The irresponsibility of the American consumer's financial situation is ridiculous. They may not have a dollar in savings, or IRA, or their children's college fund. But by God, they are driving that brand new Cadillac Escalade with 4 DVD screens in the back seat, living in a house that they know they cant afford, and watching a new TV with custom-installed sound system. People need to start acting their wage.
Unfortunately, the current problems our economy is facing right now originated by the reflection in the mirror in many cases. We need to stop expecting government to take care of our problems and start taking care of ourselves. Then, everything will fall in to place.

www.daveramsey.com

 

[dvcgirl]

And in the mean time, I believe we won't see much relief from energy costs...unfortunately.

I know the economy goes in cycles, but some of the things we are facing - dependence on non-renewable energy, debt, healthcare costs/issues, mortgage issues - have been on the radar for a long time. Plus, many people have improved their standard of living through acquiring massive debt. And as a country our debt is increasing every day because of the war.

We've been putting our heads in the sand about a lot of stuff. The sky isn't falling, but nobody is making this stuff up.

Still, I am very hopeful we will put our ingenuity and talents toward facing some of these problems. It's what our grandparents' generation did during the Depression and World War II, and with good leadership I believe we can, too.

I agree with you to a great degree, but I just don't think our political system is set up to deal with the issues we're facing. When the sole goal of *every* politician is in getting re-hired every four years....well.....I can't see any of our current leaders stepping up to the plate. *Nobody* is going to like the prescription to solve our current problems because it will require a great deal of sacrifice on the part of nearly every citizen.

We're going to need an Entitlement Program Commission of some sort to hand down the bad news. How do we choose this commission? I'm not sure, but clearly they can't be paid or elected officials. I do know that we need to make these changes as soon as possible so that the citizens of this country can begin to adjust. We've already made those adjustments....we pretty much figure that these programs won't be available to us in their current form.

I was flipping through channels last night and caught a little of The Dave Ramsey show on the Fox Business Channel. I don't always agree with what Dave has to say, especially when it comes to his investment advice. However, one quote of his is very, very true. "What happens in your house is much more important than what happens in The White House". A lot of people just sit around and complain about Bush, or Clinton.....or fill-in the blank.

Sure they may raise my taxes, but then we'll just have to figure out a way to make more or spend less. We certainly won't *save* less. We've already figured out that we all should be saving as much as we can. Yes, they'll probably take most of what they've promised me in Social Security or half of my future Medicare benefits. I'm already planning for that......now, 25 years before I hit 65. What I do today will have much, much more of an impact on my future than what Obama or McCain or any other politician will have on me.

The partisanship in this country will be our downfall. I think if we could abolish Limbaugh, Franken, Hannity, Sharpton, Coulter, Matthews and all of the other mouthpieces from both sides of the aisle....well, I think the world would be a much better place.

 

[Ciao Mickey]

They also haven't funded much research into alternative energy. But we can't just blame them. We spent 15 years with a society that played the "my SUV is bigger than yours" game and saying "why shouldn't I heat a 2000 square foot home for two people with 17 foot ceilings." Our government has subsidized entire industries based on petrochemicals, while its pooh-poohed funding for sustainable tech. It isn't like we haven't seen this coming since the Carter administration (and before that). We choose to ignore it - politically and culturally - unless it actually hurts.

I remember the gas lines of 1973 and it's always amazed me how Detroit never learned a lesson from it. They kept on building bigger and bigger gas guzzling vehicles.

Let's face it, we are energy hogs. No wonder the rest of the world resents us.

 

[punkin]

The partisanship in this country will be our downfall.

Completely off topic, but this is not true at all. Our country was built on the idea that "factions" are a vital part of Democracy and they act as counterweights to the prevalent political pull towards dictatorship by preventing power from pooling in one set of hands. I'm paraphrasing the Federalist Papers.

 

[eliza61]

I remember the gas lines of 1973 and it's always amazed me how Detroit never learned a lesson from it. They kept on building bigger and bigger gas guzzling vehicles.

Let's face it, we are energy hogs. No wonder the rest of the world resents us.

Soo true. In the NY/NJ area we have these things on the highway called HOV lanes, it stands for High occupancy vehicles. The theory was supposed to promote car pooling. If you had more than 2 people in your car, you got to travel in the faster HOV lanes. During rush hour you always see the cars in the hOV lanes are small hondas and Toyotas, crammed in with 5 Adults. Then you look over & see the big SUV's and Hummers with a grand total of 1

 

[Solomonsmom81]

I just want to say it must be really really nice NOT to have to worry about the economy, gas prices, or grocery bills, pay for rent and bills, and have money to sit at home and plan for a nice WDW trip, I havent been to WDW since I was 10 and mom and dad paid for that trip. I come on this board for the freebies and help with my budget, and I dont plan on going to WDW for a very long time ( maybe never at this piont). I also don't have to watch the news to feel it, my DH just got his hours cut and we are taking a $200 month loss, and his company is about to be sold to their competitor because of the economy so he might not even have a job soon ( we are praying constantly about this) and he drives 45 min to work in Michigan and he can't just jump up and find another job because there aren't any here, I am currently going to school full time for nursing so I can get back to work to better our income. We have one car so I can't work while he does plus we have 2 kids so then that would be daycare we would have to pay for and well I would be working to pay for the gas to get to work and for the daycare... SO those of you that are truly BLESSED and don't or choose not to worry about what is going on in this country, remember there are those that are very worried and are hurting, and say a little prayer as you lay down without a worry of money or how to pay for your next trip, and be greatful that your only worry is that a silly little ride wont be working as you visit somewhere that only so many wish they could even dream of going... Along with the others we dont have a fancy car, we have a cell phone that my DH got from his work and they are taking that away any day now, im on dial up so I can do online classes for school , no cable tv, and don't do anything that cost money except buy food and go to work and school. So I'm wondering how do I cut things out when there's nothing left to cut out and start budgeting around the economy???

Well this thread makes this statement true ... "THE GRASS IS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE!!"

 

[crisi]

Well this thread makes this statement true ... "THE GRASS IS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE!!"

Yeah, I think I'd trade financial security for a healthy family and a family home that didn't just get taken out by a tornado. I haven't felt particularly blessed of late.

 

[las3888]

Yes, in flipping through talk radio stations I've heard right-wing radio hosts go on and on about our "vast oil shale deposits". Before you jump on me, I have voted for republicans.

I'm not denying that we have these shale deposits. We do. However if you do just a little bit of research you'd read how much energy is required to heat the shale, get it to the surface and then refine it. The amount of water required alone is astounding. And the process is in no way perfected. To get that process to a mass scale is decades away.

It's the same thing with ANWR....all you read is that there are somewhere from 4-20 billion barrels of oil there. Sounds great, but at the most, we'd get one million barrels a day out of there.....if we were lucky.... less than 5% of our daily oil consumption. And again, ANWR wouldn't provide one drop of oil for at least 5 years if we started drilling today. Five years from now it will more like 3% of our consumption unless we begin to conserve.

Now I'm not saying that we shouldn't drill in our own territories. I think that we're going to have to do that to help us make the transition to renewable sources. However, it's not as easy as turning on the "oil shale" spigot or tapping into ANWR and flipping off the Saudis.

The problem with figuring out whether drilling for oil or not is that there are so many different opinions, and it all depends on who you ask. Here is some interesting statistical information below. I do believe it's worth 5% of consumption for a possible 32 years...after all, we only get 11.5% of our oil from the Saudis..it's just worth saying that some feel it's a total waste of time, while others feel passionately that it's in our best interest.


The U.S. consumes about 20 million barrels (3,200,000 m³) daily. If the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge oil reserves were used to supply 5% of the U.S. daily consumption -- most is imported from Canada (19%), Mexico (15%), Saudi Arabia (11.5%), Nigeria (10.5%) and Venezuela (10.5%)[11] -- the reserves, using the low figure of 4.3 billion barrels (680,000,000 m³), would last approximately 4300 days, or almost 12 years. Using the high estimate, the reserves would last approximately 11800 days, or 32 years. Using the increasing price of oil this supply (with 10.5 billion barrel mean and crude oil at over $120 a barrel) would be worth 1,260,000,000,000.00 ($1.26 trillion).