An argument for VDL as direct points at WDW

[RoseGold]

I have never been to DL, I may never go to DL, but I still think VDL is an excellent buy for direct points for WDW, if you need direct points for perks or future resorts.

I'm just a math nerd, and I think the DL math looks great. With $230 pricing and 9.06 dues, using the math from this table, which has many shortcomings,
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-fall-2022/
this makes total 13.66. This is middle of the pack on the chart, which is great IMO. It could be better if it launches with incentives.

The difference between VDL and any other direct buy is that there won't be more construction in California anytime soon. This project took decades to figure out. Meanwhile WDW will continue building out swamps until DVC is saturated. VGC could have had restrictions from the jump, and no one would have cared. People buy DL points to use in DL, and DL hotels are EXPENSIVE and landlocked. IMO, VDL will hold value, as WDW DVC and Orlando hotels in general just keep building. I would much rather be selling DL down the road than RIV.

Removing the transient tax and the parking makes this even better! You are using this in FL, where their dues include parking, while you aren't paying for California nonsense or parking at all.

Of course, there are risks. CA is completely different politics from FL, and who knows which way one or the other state will swing. Right now, FL actually seems more perilous. This could swing dues either way, which are a major component of DVC. And there is the obvious downside of no 11 month advantage at WDW.

EDIT: Incentives for 200 points announced at $22, so $208 per point.

At 175, $209 VDH $199 Aulani $208 Riviera $204 VGF.

At 200, $208 VDH $191 Aulani $201 Riviera $197 VGF.

At 250, $207 VDH $188 Aulani $200 Riviera $195 VGF.

Using 200 points makes 4.16 +9.06 = 13.22. Not bad if you have 41,600 sitting around.

Also, DLT's dues will increase slower than other resorts, because they removed 1/3 of the dues and called them something else. You don't care about that rate if you're using them in FL.

 

[pianomanzano]

If I’m buying direct for use at WDW with an exit strategy in mind, it’ll be for VGF. Those high dues and variable transient tax rates may spook folks down the road. Still too early to tell for me to choose VDH as any viable strategy for WDW SAP, especially when there are many WDW resorts available now direct and cheaper than VDH.

I also really don’t care for that “most economical” report. All it’s saying is longer contracts are a better buy because the points cost is spread out over more years. With how increasingly competitiveness it is at WDW at the 7 month mark, more considerations need to be made beyond the couple cents in difference among the resorts on that chart.

 

[longboard55]

VDH will be mostly west coast buyers who currently have very few options. Frankly I thought the point price would be higher. You can not get VGC at 7 months, it is impossible, and if you can find a day it will be at some random period. WDW points will do you no good in California

 

[CarolMN]

I also really don’t care for that “most economical” report. All it’s saying is longer contracts are a better buy because the points cost is spread out over more years. With how increasingly competitiveness it is at WDW at the 7 month mark, more considerations need to be made beyond the couple cents in difference among the resorts on that chart.

Agree! Vacations are a luxury and about so much more than just the $$.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I don't get the logic in how it's the most economical. It's the worst (annual dues wise) of anything in active sales direct...by a wide margin. Resale value will be hamstrung by lack of access to any other DVC resorts. I'm not saying it might not hold it's value well due to scarcity, but I wouldn't bet on it being a giant margin. In the meantime, every year you use it at WDW you're paying those higher annual dues.

 

[kilik64]

Take out the TOT and the dues are not TERRIBLE, sure high, but if history is an indicator, they might not much move at all over the next 5 years thanks to the AUL effect. Look at RIV, dues are basically flat since it opened and it has skyliner costs rolled into it right? Id anticipate dues being flat for a few years for VDH so when they do start to increase they wont be much out of pattern with the WDW resorts by then, heck I'd bet OKW will be a couple dollars or more higher than VDH dues (minus TOT) within 5 years.

 

[RoseGold]

I don't get the logic in how it's the most economical. It's the worst (annual dues wise) of anything in active sales direct...by a wide margin. Resale value will be hamstrung by lack of access to any other DVC resorts. I'm not saying it might not hold it's value well due to scarcity, but I wouldn't bet on it being a giant margin. In the meantime, every year you use it at WDW you're paying those higher annual dues.

RIV's dues are 8.50 vs 9.06. (And Aulani 9.14) That's not a wide margin. And at RIV, you're going to be selling an old, locked down resort while DVC is directly selling new shiny ones, plus poor Aulani. That's not what I want to be selling in a decade. DL has no more space, there will be no DL DVC anytime soon, and hotel rates will keep going up. That's what protects DL's value.

I'd pick VDL over RIV for sure.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I have never been to DL, I may never go to DL, but I still think VDL is an excellent buy for direct points for WDW, if you need direct points for perks or future resorts.

I'm just a math nerd, and I think the DL math looks great. With $230 pricing and 9.06 dues, using the math from this table, which has many shortcomings,
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-fall-2022/
this makes total 13.66. This is middle of the pack on the chart, which is great IMO. It could be better if it launches with incentives.

The difference between VDL and any other direct buy is that there won't be more construction in California anytime soon. This project took decades to figure out. Meanwhile WDW will continue building out swamps until DVC is saturated. VGC could have had restrictions from the jump, and no one would have cared. People buy DL points to use in DL, and DL hotels are EXPENSIVE and landlocked. IMO, VDL will hold value, as WDW DVC and Orlando hotels in general just keep building. I would much rather be selling DL down the road than RIV.

Removing the transient tax and the parking makes this even better! You are using this in FL, where their dues include parking, while you aren't paying for California nonsense or parking at all.

Of course, there are risks. CA is completely different politics from FL, and who knows which way one or the other state will swing. Right now, FL actually seems more perilous. This could swing dues either way, which are a major component of DVC. And there is the obvious downside of no 11 month advantage at WDW.

This is smart and interesting, but I disagree. For WDW SAP, wouldn’t the best choice, as mentioned above, still be VGF? It’s cheaper, none of the annoying, didn’t-tell-us-till-the-last-minute transient and parking fees, and it’s going to sell out in the next 12-18 months, meaning the VGF resale price will pop back up and a buyer today could probably sell at a higher price in a couple years or less. Even if Poly2 turns out great and has its own association, VGF, with its size, theming and scale, will always be the premiere Magic Kingdom area resort.

Though you‘ve been quite unforgiving about the Aulani transient tax and dues, you seem remarkably ok with Anaheim’s, which are even higher for the former and almost as much as the latter. And, let’s be honest, VDH isn’t a beautiful sprawling island resort, it’s basically a boring, unthemed block of concrete shoved into a narrow space between two hotel towers. It even makes Riviera look like an imagineer’s fantasy! Why are the dues so friggin pricey?? Also, the relationship between Anaheim and Disney has always been complicated, so it’s certainly not impossible that Anaheim could muscle through any number of transient tax increases down the line in retaliation for some perceived slight on Disney’s part.

Also, I’m not sure VDH is guaranteed to be either successful or popular. It greatly suffers in comparison to VGC, and most people in SoCal know nothing about DVC and usually travel from home to spend a day at the parks. I’m not sure they’re going to be lining up in droves to plunk down thousands and thousands of dollars for a time share to stay in basically another hotel wing, when they can book that same hotel or similar ones across the street for two or three night stays, for years and years and years, for less money.

Also, even if you use the resort for SAP, it’s still kinda nice to own where you want to stay. And I think there might be more hesitation than some anticipate to buy into VGC’s unimpressive, small, sad counterpart.

 

[AstroBlasters]

RIV's dues are 8.50 vs 9.06. That's not a wide margin. And at RIV, you're going to be selling an old, locked down resort while DVC is directly selling new shiny ones, plus poor Aulani. That's not what I want to be selling in a decade. DL has no more space, there will be no DL DVC anytime soon, and hotel rates will keep going up. That's what protects DL's value.

I'd pick VDL over RIV for sure.

I’m going to throw in a quick “Aulani is amazing and Disney rakes in a ton of cash on unsold inventory” post here.

Carry on….

 

[RoseGold]

I love VGF, I own VGF, but it's a much shorter contract, ten years shorter. Maybe that matters to you, maybe it doesn't? I was initially thrilled at the BPK conversion, but the shoddy sound issues made me feel like it devalued the whole product. GF has many other aging buildings with terrible soundproofing they could flip later.

VGC is so ridiculously small, it can't remove demand for VDH. Sure, all of these options are expensive, as are the offsite ones, none of that is new.

But in DVC points are points. Removing the transient taxes and parking are great for VDH owners who are either renting out points, or are using the points in FL instead. It's like a super power to wipe almost $3(!!!) off your dues plus parking to use them in FL instead.

All of these properties have their shortcomings. If VGF/RIV/AUL aren't speaking to you, but you want direct points, I think VDH is a contender.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I love VGF, I own VGF, but it's a much shorter contract, ten years shorter. Maybe that matters to you, maybe it doesn't? I was initially thrilled at the BPK conversion, but the shoddy sound issues made me feel like it devalued the whole product. GF has many other aging buildings with terrible soundproofing they could flip later.

VGC is so ridiculously small, it can't remove demand for VDH. Sure, all of these options are expensive, as are the offsite ones, none of that is new.

But in DVC points are points. Removing the transient taxes and parking are great for VDH owners who are either renting out points, or are using the points in FL instead. It's like a super power to wipe almost $3(!!!) off your dues plus parking to use them in FL instead.

All of these properties have their shortcomings. If VGF/RIV/AUL aren't speaking to you, but you want direct points, I think VDH is a contender.

IMO, your logic is absolutely sound.

1) VDH will retain its resale and rental much better than RR because of a lack of CA DVC supply and future hotel cost inflation.

Imagine trying to resell RIV in 18 years when people can get shiny new BCV or BWV contracts in walking distance of Epcot.

2) VDH dues will probably go up at a snails pace because there is no monorail, Skyliner, boat, or bus system to maintain. It’s also new, so maintenance bigger costs are pushed significantly in the future compared to other resorts.

3) You have the upside lottery ticket of Disney Forward.

4) We have no idea what member pre-sale incentives will be.

 

[kilik64]

4) We have no idea what member pre-sale incentives will be.

Could be wrong, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were NO incentives...

 

[AstroBlasters]

Could be wrong, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were NO incentives...

Incentives is how they get people to buy bigger contracts. They are a useful sales tool.

 

[Nursemanit]

Your logic is ok - but I see some items that will make direct VGF better

1. Disney can never let VGF fail as the flagship
2. Huge pool of demand for VGF
3. Plenty of room to convert more buildings

 

[kanerf]

Buy to rent out perhaps.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I love VGF, I own VGF, but it's a much shorter contract, ten years shorter. Maybe that matters to you, maybe it doesn't? I was initially thrilled at the BPK conversion, but the shoddy sound issues made me feel like it devalued the whole product. GF has many other aging buildings with terrible soundproofing they could flip later.

VGC is so ridiculously small, it can't remove demand for VDH. Sure, all of these options are expensive, as are the offsite ones, none of that is new.

But in DVC points are points. Removing the transient taxes and parking are great for VDH owners who are either renting out points, or are using the points in FL instead. It's like a super power to wipe almost $3(!!!) off your dues plus parking to use them in FL instead.

All of these properties have their shortcomings. If VGF/RIV/AUL aren't speaking to you, but you want direct points, I think VDH is a contender.

That’s a novel argument! Buy VDH, but don’t use the points yourself, so you don’t have to pay the ridiculous transient taxes and parking, which you wouldn’t have to pay anyway if you bought direct anyplace else. If you’re ok with the higher dues, which you obviously are, Aulani is a way better buy for SAP because it’s so much cheaper, and the transient taxes are much, much lower. (And please, please, I beg you, don’t bring up probate. No one cares and it bores everyone to tears!)

 

[RoseGold]

That’s a novel argument! Buy VDH, but don’t use the points yourself, so you don’t have to pay the ridiculous transient taxes and parking, which you wouldn’t have to pay anyway if you bought direct anyplace else. If you’re ok with the higher dues, which you obviously are, Aulani is a way better buy for SAP because it’s so much cheaper, and the transient taxes are much, much lower.

The dues are roughly equal. 8.50, 9.06, 9.14. This is a resale argument.

I believe VDH will hold value better than RIV or Aulani. Or against future locked down resorts as WDW construction marches on. The point of the resale restrictions is to impact resale value, and I just don't see why they matter much in CA.

Sure, if you plan to hold RIV until you die, it doesn't really matter if RIV resale is worthless. The idea is if you care about resale, you might as well buy a contract holding value if the dues are equal. Taking out the taxes and parking is what made the dues equal, which is why this math works.

 

[Paul Stupin]

IMO, your logic is absolutely sound.

1) VDH will retain its resale and rental much better than RR because of a lack of CA DVC supply and future hotel cost inflation.

Imagine trying to resell RIV in 18 years when people can get shiny new BCV or BWV contracts in walking distance of Epcot.

2) VDH dues will probably go up at a snails pace because there is no monorail, Skyliner, boat, or bus system to maintain. It’s also new, so maintenance bigger costs are pushed significantly in the future compared to other resorts.

3) You have the upside lottery ticket of Disney Forward.

4) We have no idea what member pre-sale incentives will be.

1. No guarantee demand will be there for CA DVC, not to mention that the building is unthemed, only studios, has no grounds, and lacks any wow factor. Do you really want to bet your money on that, before sales even start?

2. It doesn’t matter if VDH dues go up at a snail’s pace because they’re starting so sky high.

3. Disney Forward is way too theoretical at this point, not to mention the 10 years of construction unsightliness and noise guests will have to deal with if it ever actually happens.

4. Yes, I’m sure incentives will exist for large point purchases. But most people will be buying for short stays once a year, so my bet is that the vast majority of contracts will be for 150 points or less. That will probably mean nonexistent incentives for most buyers.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The dues are roughly equal. 8.50, 9.06, 9.14. This is a resale argument.

I believe VDH will hold value better than RIV or Aulani. Or against future locked down resorts as WDW construction marches on. The point of the resale restrictions is to impact resale value, and I just don't see why they matter much in CA.

Sure, if you plan to hold RIV until you die, it doesn't really matter if RIV resale is worthless. The idea is if you care about resale, you might as well buy a contract holding value if the dues are equal. Taking out the taxes and parking is what made the dues equal, which is why this math works.

You might believe VDH will hold better value because of the small DVC footprint in SoCal, but there’s certainly no guarantee. Look at the specific product. All studios, no wow factor. It’s boring, and I’m not sure the lack of DVC availability can compensate.

Resale restrictions matter everywhere. California buyers, whoever they are, want to go to WDW as well, but they’ll be shut out with VDH resale points, locked into a building (certainly not a resort) that’s severely lacking on the magic scale. I wouldn’t underestimate how that might affect sales.

 

[Sandisw]

The dues are roughly equal. 8.50, 9.06, 9.14. This is a resale argument.

I believe VDH will hold value better than RIV or Aulani. Or against future locked down resorts as WDW construction marches on. The point of the resale restrictions is to impact resale value, and I just don't see why they matter much in CA.

Sure, if you plan to hold RIV until you die, it doesn't really matter if RIV resale is worthless. The idea is if you care about resale, you might as well buy a contract holding value if the dues are equal. Taking out the taxes and parking is what made the dues equal, which is why this math works.

Saying that RIv will be worthless resale but VDH won’t in terms of resale value is a huge assumption.

It may make sense for someone to buy VDH for sleep around points for WDW,

Just. It sure anyone should go in expecting that. Now, RIV is doing pretty well given it’s a one resort contract and VDH may be the same, and might do better.

But we have a lot of people here who are rethinking the purchase..and regardless, I have never been a fan of buying something non WDW for WDW stays.