See, this is what I think, and I don’t have any inside information at all obviously, but I just want to outline why I think not only the GW is a fabulous opportunity, but it may end up being fairly marketable in ten years.
Let me start by saying I totally agree with all the posters who say do not buy
DVC as a financial investment, it is a luxury item. But, I hope we won’t take a total bath on the buy in price if we want to sell in ten years or more. If I sell less then ten years, after buying DIRECT and not resale, well, it’s kinda like driving a brand new car off the lot. The second it hits the pavement, it has depreciated fast - you know that going in.
This thought process and logic (if it is logical) applies, in my mind anyways, specifically to the riviera.
Let’s say that if I sell my timeshare in 10 years, and lost 50% of the original buy in, I will consider myself doing ok as I got 10 years out of it staying at the resort where I want to stay, in the location I wanted, at the time of year I wanted, in the accommodation room type that I wanted, completely hassle free and GUARANTEED. In addition, the points for that particular trip will NEVER go up. As a tourist and a guest for a luxury resort in a fabulous destination, that is checking a lot of the boxes for me, even if I lose some financially.
But, you argue, look at the restrictions on resale for the riviera, this is going to make it a lot less palatable for selling, it’s going to be worth less than 50%. Now, I don’t have a magic ball, but I am going to say that RIV will hold its own on the resale market, and GW’s will be the new ‘fast passes’, IF the week and the room type are chosen wisely.
Let me explain my reasoning
1.iDisney is really becoming more and more an adult destination in its own right (I think we have all known this for a while) But- the general population is also becoming aware of it too. The riviera caters more to adults in my mind ( like the GF,) with excellent dining, location, sophistication, and room decor, meeting this need directly.
2. The longevity of the contract vs that of the other Epcot resorts, Boardwalk and Beachclub. This is a big one. After the extended contract fiasco at old key west, I do not think you will see Disney offering that at BW or BC. Also, think of the value of that adult like location, don’t you think Disney is going to want to get it back, slap a coat of paint on the villas, and then set up a NEW
point chart with a lot more points on it? Their location is better than the riviera, you can bet that point chart at RIV is going to look like a bargain when Disney is done with with BC and BW.
3 I think there is a thread floating around on this board talking about the big change in point allocation between 2020 and 2022 in the fall for all the resorts, making it more expensive to travel during ‘low season’ - a significant impact on a lot of dissers point wise for their travel plans. I think this will continue ESPECIALLY for the EPCOT DVC’s, so locking in a point spread during F&W time in the fall at an Epcot resort could be a very good idea.
4) although you definitely will lose value on those points bought direct, Disney will not let them become a complete washout in the resale market, because they are exercising ROFR. It’s good business for them to have their time share ‘valued’ on the resale market.
5) Blue card /White Card - with Disney saying resale RIV points can only be used at RIV, they are applying pressure and trying to turn the tide against the resale market a bit. I would take an educated guess that every new DVC Villa built will have the same restriction, making people want to have blue cards for at least some points if the want to stay at the latest and greatest.
6) piggy backing number 5- many dissers think that this is going to make the RIV unsaleable. What happens in 5-10 years when people are looking to buy into DVC to stay near the Epcot area for food and wine, or whatever. Will they buy in to a contract that only has 10 to 15 years left on it? Or will they glance over at RIV? I think RIV will look like a very viable alternative.
7) piggy backing on point 6 - why would you buy a resale that points were good at only one resort? When you can buy a contract that is good at the fab 13 resorts? Well guess what, BW and BCV will be out of the swimming pool shortly As I am guessing when resold by Disney, there are going to be the same restrictions at RIV. Who knows what will happen with OKW? I think as every time share expires and gets regurgitated out by Disney, this will be the new rule. So eventually this will not be the solitary ‘problem’ of RIV. But WAIT you cry out, that is like 20 or 25 years from now before a bunch get swallowed back by Disney. That’s true, however look at how savvy resale people are looking at BCV and BW right now, with the contract ending in 20 years, and the likelihood of Disney offering an extension after the OKW fiasco. Now picture five years from now. How likely are you to buy there at even 100 a point if there is only 15 years left? So, I would hazard a guess that when a property is in the last 15 years of its life, people are not really going to want to buy it due to the short term and no renewal prospect. Again, that makes RIV more attractive.
8. But hold on a second, don’t you think people will choose to buy other properties that allow for point usage at multiple resorts? Two things here my friend, one- some just want to be in easy distance to Epcot and all the fun and nightlife there - so that means an Epcot resort, and 2) hold on to your hats- do you not think it likely that at some point Disney is going to say all resales can only be used at the home resort? RIV is pointing my thoughts in that direction, and there is a clause saying that you are not guaranteed anything BUT your home resort if you buy resale (and direct sale too). That would change how people look at blue card vs white card for any upcoming purchases, right? Disney would simply make the announcement like they did in 2019 for resale perks being terminated, and just grandfather existing resale contracts immunity from this so there is not too much squealing by owners. Easy Peasy lemon squeezy. The sage old dissers who always said buy where you want to stay many years ago were NOT talking so much about the imperative of the 11 month booking opportunity, but more so about that clause in the contract and the ability of Disney to enact on it.
9) Let’s talk about the booking shenanigans going on now. When I owned beachclub, it really was no problem to get pretty much anything I wanted during spring break season at 9 or 10 months, only the dedicated two bedroom was harder to get, but not impossible. It sounds from all the threads I have been reading that studios are getting seriously hard to procure at certain times of years for certain resorts. I understand, notoriously, that Epcot resorts during food and wine, or those marathons are quite hard to come by. Now think about having a GW for a studio during a prime week, the points frozen for the next 50 years. You don’t think that will increase in value even without considering that BW and BCV will be off the proverbial table?
And, I think there is so much misconceptions regarding the GW locking people in- it does not! You can easily convert it back to points and use them wherever and whenever you want. If you do decide to use that week, great, it’s no hassle and completely guaranteed and you won’t have to become one of those dreaded walkers... lol.
should you get a GW for a 3 bedroom villa in June? No, that thing will swim like a pig in the resale market. Should you get a value studio GW during prime food and wine season? Oh, I think so, I absolutely do. If you have the money maybe get two of them, rent out one every year to pay for both MF’s yearly. If renting becomes a no no, sell that second contract. I think in ten years, many, many resale buyers will be educated about GW.
That is my two cents, ymmv.