Add on, but SSR has new ending date...

[lenshanem]

Curious...
If sales start for SSr and the price is higher per point with a new contarct ending date how woudl that effect add ons at the other DVc resorts such as BCV? Do you think the new DVC deal woudl appply to the add ons, such as a longer ending date if they even do that?

 

[CarolMN]

It's fun to speculate, but no one really knows for sure.

Personally, I can't see how they could offer a different ending date for add ons to the existing DVC properties without offering to extend the date for the other points as well. Of course, I assume there would be a charge for the extension!

 

[lenshanem]

Well, I talked dh into adding on a little for sure, but we have decided we would stay with BCV same use year thru DVC just to keep things simple. We wouldn't be adding on enough anyway to help at another 11 month window soemwhere else.
Sooo, we want to do thsi within the next two years, but woudl liek to wait when we coudl just pay for it outright. We know that we might have to get put on a waitlist. Now, if the price goes up we woudl go ahead and do it now instead, or seeing what SSr conratcs might change to add ons, too. Waiting game I guess...

Has anyone called to add on when notice of a price increase happened and then had to be put on a wailits/ Did they honor the old price once it came through?

 

[ArnyVee]

I just hope that whenever the new 'extended' DVC properties happen, that it doesn't totally mess up the existing DVC interests values.

I can see the SSR coming out with $87/point, but with an 'ending' date of 2054. Then, everyone starting to jump on those and flood the market with the existing DVC points. Although, the flooding of the market would probably happen a little closer than the current 39 year difference right now. Maybe when we get closer to having 20 years left and so forth.

I really believe though that all Disney will do is wait awhile and then extend all contracts....for a fee, of course....until a certain date. That way, they get all of the incoming DVC member's monies and then a nice chunk of change from the existing folks.

Who knows...either way, you know that Disney must make any decision based on the bottom line. Unfortunately, that's how it is these days with the economy and everything. You can't just extend an extra feature or benefit to a customer unless you will benefit financially from it or it isn't..."cost effective". Sigh.

 

[Geoff_M]

I'm not a lawyer, but if you read the copy of the "DVC Multi-Site Public Offering Statement" it states in Section III 1a that the term of the club and its resorts as a whole runs through 1/31/2042. Given this lingo, I don't see how they can bring SSR in with a different end date unless, as others have speculated, Disney rolls out a DVC II. I don't know if they can retroactively change a fundamental piece of the public offering statement.

 

[paults]

LENSHANEM

I may be wrong but if you go on the waitlist for an add-on, you will pay the going rate when it comes through. Please someone correct me if this is wrong

 

[msdis]

Not that I believe everything I am told but last month a rep at one of the kiosks told me that SSR would have a longer life and there would be a price increase. Again, don't believe all I am told but still found their perspective interesting.

Geoff_M-you are right, that does sound like they would need to start a whole new offering. But does that also mean that there could be a conflict with trades such that the new owners could still trade into the current DVC resorts long after our contracts expire? There would be a huge unbalance. Besides, who is going to be able to afford cash prices for these resorts in 2042. Also, think what that will do to the resale market. Yikes, the theories are endless.

 

[zulaya]

When I was at BCV 2 weeks ago, I asked every guide I came along about SSR. No one knew anything. One guy baby sitting the model room actually told me to check out the internet bulletin boards because they know sooner than he does!

 

[Geoff_M]

msdis,

If they launch a DVC II and use SSR as its "flagship", my guess is the points would command a premium price over DVC "I" points due to the longer usability period. I'd also guess that DCV "I" member would pay a points premium to use SSR and "II" members would get a points discount when using "I" resorts in order to maintain effective cost/benefit parity.

 

[CaptainMidnight]

Of course we are just speculating, but given how fast BCV is selling in the slower travel economy, why change the end date and launch a DVC II at this point? People are still buying at the high cost that points now sell for. DVC can resell the resorts once they revert back and will probably make more in the long run. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having an extended date for SSR for the future, given the success and sales that DVC seems to have.

 

[Geoff_M]

I agree that it's unlikely that SSR will be part of a new club. 38 years is still plenty of time on a timeshare. But at some point in the future, say when there's 25 years left in DVC, if Disney is still adding or converting properties to timeshares they'll need to address this issue.

 

[Disney1fan2002]

What really will happen to DVC in 2042? Will Disney just start over with all new contracts? Or close up shop and just rent the rooms out through CR? I think they would have to start over. They could not possibly rent the rooms at the going rate (+ 39 years inflation) at full capacity on a constant level.

my guess would be that Disney is going to need to change it's marketing within the next 5 years or so. How can it possibly justify seeling points at a higher cost for a less amount of time? Last year, the points cost $80 per, this year it is less 1 year off the contract and people are paying $4 more a point. Only the Magic of Disney could pull that off. I think when there is 35 years left on the contracts, Disney is going to have to start lowering the price per point, or start a DVC II.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Geoff_M
I'm not a lawyer, but if you read the copy of the "DVC Multi-Site Public Offering Statement" it states in Section III 1a that the term of the club and its resorts as a whole runs through 1/31/2042. Given this lingo, I don't see how they can bring SSR in with a different end date unless, as others have speculated, Disney rolls out a DVC II. I don't know if they can retroactively change a fundamental piece of the public offering statement.

There's nothing in this or the rest of the wording that would prevent a new resort having a different ending date. It's simply a statement of the expected life of the club which currently ends on 31 Jan, 2042 because that's when all the properties revert back to Disney. It is not a statement that requires the club to end.

Still, no way will SS have a different ending date unless there will be other resorts to follow, just too much hassle to have it as a stand alone for 10 years. And it's not enough incentive to extend the ending date and then offer extensions to new members. Now if EP will happen as a 600 unit monster, that would be a different story and they may as well extend SS and EP to a full 50 years or more.

Hypothetically though, DVC could require min of 150 point add ons or just allow current members to filter down as members of small (<150) pt contracts after the other resorts revert back. They could also tie extension of the current ownership to add ons, now wouldn't that spur sales!!! Add on a min of 100 points and extend all your points to 2060, that might even get me interested in SS.

 

[Geoff_M]

It's simply a statement of the expected life of the club which currently ends on 31 Jan, 2042 because that's when all the properties revert back to Disney. It is not a statement that requires the club to end.

You are correct that the "DVC" will continue to exist as a service name own the TWDC after 1/31/2042, but that's all it will be. The section I mentioned from the public offering statement specifically states: "The term of the vacation club as to a specific DVC Resort will continue through January 31, 2042, which is the duration of the ownership interests at each of the DVC Resorts." This isn't the expected life, it's the legally contractual life of the club as it exists now. I doubt that the DVD can alter the basic terms of the binding agreement between it and the real estate owners in the club without a major effort.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Geoff_M
You are correct that the "DVC" will continue to exist as a service name own the TWDC after 1/31/2042, but that's all it will be. The section I mentioned from the public offering statement specifically states: "The term of the vacation club as to a specific DVC Resort will continue through January 31, 2042, which is the duration of the ownership interests at each of the DVC Resorts." This isn't the expected life, it's the legally contractual life of the club as it exists now. I doubt that the DVD can alter the basic terms of the binding agreement between it and the real estate owners in the club without a major effort.

Geoff, the statement is simply a reference to the ending of the current resorts. There is nothing in this that would preclude the club ending later if a resort ended later. The ending of the resorts drives the issue, not the Club. All that has to happen is to for the Board to vote on extending which they would obviously do in conjunction with a new resort that ended later.

 

[Geoff_M]

Perhaps it is technically possible to extend the life of the DVC, but it would seem to open a can of worms to start mixing properties with different end-dates. Right now a point, is a point, is a point. But a point in a property with 50 years of use left will be worth more than a point with a useable life of 38 years. The current system can be confusing enough as is without having to throw in a variable to the equation where points in resort A, B, and C are worth .8 a point in resort X, and vice versa. At some point, when that fork in the road is reached, it would be a whole lot cleaner to just launch a DVC, Phase II club and set up some kinda of exhange program for using points between clubs.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Geoff_M
Perhaps it is technically possible to extend the life of the DVC, but it would seem to open a can of worms to start mixing properties with different end-dates. Right now a point, is a point, is a point. But a point in a property with 50 years of use left will be worth more than a point with a useable life of 38 years. The current system can be confusing enough as is without having to throw in a variable to the equation where points in resort A, B, and C are worth .8 a point in resort X, and vice versa. At some point, when that fork in the road is reached, it would be a whole lot cleaner to just launch a DVC, Phase II club and set up some kinda of exhange program for using points between clubs.

It's not quite that complicated. You just act like a point is a point until you reach the date in 2042 (or some other predetermined date late in the course) and let people use their points. You don't make reservations with "new points" or any points after the expiration date of any resort. The other issue is not specific to this but how to you limit the number of points the last year or 2 as there will be more points than units at the end otherwise. My guess is they'll prorate them the last coule of years but there are several possibilities.

So while I do find some minor issues in having resorts with different expiration dates I find far less road blocks in that than in having to set up a completely different system. Plus I don't see DVC or DVD willing to alienate the current members to that degree. For these reasons I dont think SS will have a different ending date. OTOH, EP would be too close to the ending date as to affect sales and would necessitate a later ending date, IMO.

 

[Geoff_M]

Dean,

I agree that I doubt SSR will have a different end date, but I think it's interesting to ponder what might happen down the road. Personally, a "Phase II" would not alienate me. I think the average person could understand that a given program can be organized around common end dates. There's no need for an air of superiority between two such clubs as long as Disney continues to provide the level of service we're used to. If "Phase I" points are discounted when used at "Phase II" resorts I think people can realize that it would be due to the price premium of "Phase II" points due to the their greater longevity.

But we'll see down the road. I'm sure it'll be interesting whatever happens.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Geoff_M
Personally, a "Phase II" would not alienate me. I think the average person could understand that a given program can be organized around common end dates. There's no need for an air of superiority between two such clubs as long as Disney continues to provide the level of service we're used to. If "Phase I" points are discounted when used at "Phase II" resorts I think people can realize that it would be due to the price premium of "Phase II" points due to the their greater longevity.

I think a new resort that was totally separate or one where your points weren't worth as much as some others points would alienate many people as well as being totally unnecessary. All they have to do is raise the number of points for a unit at a new to accomplish the same thing and keep the accounting much simpler if they want to put a new resort at a premium. I doubt they'll even do that as they can accomplish the same goal with the price increases and the 7/11 month booking windows.

 

[Geoff_M]

Perhaps, but that would create a two-tier environment within the club that may still breed discontent in some.