A little hurricane grievance/evacuations education/ Katrina timeline.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Thanks Lisa for responding to my question about the interstates.

I really don't think the pre-hurricane evacuation could have been handled any better. 24-48 hours is not enough time to get everyone out. However, the aftermath of the hurricane, that's an entirely different matter....

No argument from me whatsoever!!!

I think the prep plans were done as they could be.

Those rescue and recovery plans----don't even get me started.

()

 

[LoraJ]

I was in Ft. Lauderdale last year right before Jeanne. 14 hours before the storm was heading that way, we were out having dinner in South Beach with tons of other people. No one was evacuating. None of my friends who lived their evacuated. We had to evacuate because the hotel forced us. But we had made arrangements for a flight out before it got to that point anyway. There was no way I was sticking around to experience that.

I remember it being very difficult to get gas. I can't imagine all the time wasted for people trying to get gas so they could get out of town. Lots of stations closed too. I wasn't able to fill up my tank so Dollar charged me $65 for a half tank of gas.

My friend in Port Charlotte didn't evacuate either last year during Charley. They aren't poor. But they sure are lucky their house was barely damaged. All the other homes on their street lost their roofs and windows.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

That's what I'm saying as well - where were the plans to take care of these people?

And I'm not laying this just on mayor Nagin - this is something that should have been in place for decades. There's a very good editorial in the Washington Post this morning about how they had begun to make plans for mass evacuations, most notably, the plan to use cruise ships get people out that had no other way to escape. Unfortunately, these plans were only in the early stages of development. Time ran out. That they had only begun to make plans is a travesty.

Preparation plans are to keep people safe during the danger and keep them alive until danger has passed.

Rescue and Recovery is a whole other set of plans and you have no argument from me that someone screwed up somewhere.

The cavalry comes after the danger has passed---they are staged as close as possible, based on the predicted storm path, to come to the rescue.

As soon as the danger reduced--rescue began immediately for those stranded on rooftops.....beyond that....I am not disputing that it was screwed up. In fact I am boiling mad over it.

But when people are saying this could have been avoided if the evacuations were done correctly--that is what I am up in arms about. It WAS done correctly AS soon as New Orleans was deemed to "possibly" be in the zone. before then--we might as well have been evacuating Texas--b/c it would have just been a guess.

There is no crystal ball in weather forecasting--and we have to be thankful that for as deadly as hurricanes can be--that we are given enough time to do something.


And I am curious--with 48 hours notice--how the heck do you get a cruise ship to New Orleans to evacuate people. The one they had left was FULL of people and had to go to Galveston b/c there was a hurricane. Endanger those passengers to go pick up more. You could end up with an overturned ship in a CAT 5 storm.

You can only do as much as the technology enables you.

(And on that FEMA thing--I think if an area is declared a Federal Disaster Area--that local leadership needs to be overridden in terms of rescue and recovery--at least for events of this magnitude).

 

[peachgirl]

That's what I'm saying as well - where were the plans to take care of these people? It's all well and good to say "Well, they didn't have time". Well, guess what, they got as much time as any other hurricane target gets. And KNOWING that the water doesn't just come in and then go back out, as it does in most hurricane scenarios, they had a responsibility to have a plan in place to take care of the people that couldn't get out.

Summer 2004: FEMA denies Louisiana's pre-disaster mitigation funding requests.

And indeed, some in-need areas have been inexplicably left out of the program. "In a sense, Louisiana is the flood plain of the nation," noted a 2002 FEMA report. "Louisiana waterways drain two-thirds of the continental United States. Precipitation in New York, the Dakotas, even Idaho and the Province of Alberta, finds its way to Louisiana's coastline." As a result, flooding is a constant threat, and the state has an estimated 18,000 buildings that have been repeatedly damaged by flood waters--the highest number of any state. And yet, this summer FEMA denied Louisiana communities' pre-disaster mitigation funding requests.

In Jefferson Parish, part of the New Orleans metropolitan area, flood zone manager Tom Rodrigue is baffled by the development. "You would think we would get maximum consideration" for the funds, he says. "This is what the grant program called for. We were more than qualified for it."

There's a timeline here along with a rather lengthy article explaining all the problems with FEMA...

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007023.php

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I was in Ft. Lauderdale last year right before Jeanne. 14 hours before the storm was heading that way, we were out having dinner in South Beach with tons of other people. No one was evacuating. None of my friends who lived their evacuated. We had to evacuate because the hotel forced us. But we had made arrangements for a flight out before it got to that point anyway. There was no way I was sticking around to experience that.

I remember it being very difficult to get gas. I can't imagine all the time wasted for people trying to get gas so they could get out of town. Lots of stations closed too. I wasn't able to fill up my tank so Dollar charged me $65 for a half tank of gas.

My friend in Port Charlotte didn't evacuate either last year during Charley. They aren't poor. But they sure are lucky their house was barely damaged. All the other homes on their street lost their roofs and windows.

People choosing not to evacute is another matter. If your hotel forced you to evacuate--there must have been some evacuation order. These people were probably just going to go home to hunker down. Tourists on a beach cannot do that.

Port Charlotte was not supposed to get a direct hit. Tampa was. It was also supposed to only be Cat 2 storm that was within a few hours of making landfall. In a 2 hour window---he went from a Category 2 to a 4 and took a very major toggle that ended up at Port Charlotte. In 2 hours--there was nothing that community could do. Typically--it is coastal homes evacuate on barrier islands. I'm not sure where your friends live. But inland communities for a cat 2....don't evacute unless they are in a flood prone area or in a mobile home. The 4--was quite unexpected. They were expecting to find so many deaths---but didn't find as much as they thought they would--b/c people heeded voluntary evacuation orders.

Not evacuating isn't always about the money.

(glad to hear that your friends fared well).

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Summer 2004: FEMA denies Louisiana's pre-disaster mitigation funding requests.



There's a timeline here along with a rather lengthy article explaining all the problems with FEMA...

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007023.php

In all fairness---budget funding or not--it would have taken more than 1 year to plan and execute to repair the levvees so that they could withstand a stronger hurricane. Had the funding not been slashed--and monies provided...we'd be reading commentary on how this was too little too late.

(I'd gladly take this up with you on another thread--FEMA is pretty screwed up--but I'm going to limit my discussion now to the preparations of an impending storm and not long term readiness re: levvies and the like).

 

[BuckNaked]

Preparation plans are to keep people safe during the danger and keep them alive until danger has passed.

Rescue and Recovery is a whole other set of plans and you have no argument from me that someone screwed up somewhere.

The cavalry comes after the danger has passed---they are staged as close as possible, based on the predicted storm path, to come to the rescue.

As soon as the danger reduced--rescue began immediately for those stranded on rooftops.....beyond that....I am not disputing that it was screwed up. In fact I am boiling mad over it.

But when people are saying this could have been avoided if the evacuations were done correctly--that is what I am up in arms about.

Thanks, I already knew that. As I said, I lived most of my life in a hurricane zone.

It WAS done correctly AS soon as New Orleans was deemed to "possibly" be in the zone. before then--we might as well have been evacuating Texas--b/c it would have just been a guess.

What you seem to be missing in all of this is my point that the plan they had was woefully inadequate in addressing the needs of people that couldn't evacuate on their own. The plan was great and well executed for those that it pertained to. Unfortunately, it abandoned 100,000 people that are now paying the price for the poor plan.

There is no crystal ball in weather forecasting--and we have to be thankful that for as deadly as hurricanes can be--that we are given enough time to do something.

Of course there is no crystal ball. However a plan that leaves out a significant number of people, no matter how well executed, is a piss poor plan.

And I am curious--with 48 hours notice--how the heck do you get a cruise ship to New Orleans to evacuate people. The one they had left was FULL of people and had to go to Galveston b/c there was a hurricane. Endanger those passengers to go pick up more. You could end up with an overturned ship in a CAT 5 storm.

That's where the planning part comes in. Of course it couldn't be done in this case, because there was no plan in place.

(And on that FEMA thing--I think if an area is declared a Federal Disaster Area--that local leadership needs to be overridden in terms of rescue and recovery--at least for events of this magnitude).

I agree, but that isn't the way it is currently set up.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

What you seem to be missing in all of this is my point that the plan they had was woefully inadequate in addressing the needs of people that couldn't evacuate on their own. The plan was great and well executed for those that it pertained to. Unfortunately, it abandoned 100,000 people that are now paying the price for the poor plan.

Of course there is no crystal ball. However a plan that leaves out a significant number of people, no matter how well executed, is a piss poor plan.

That's where the planning part comes in. Of course it couldn't be done in this case, because there was no plan in place.

I agree, but that isn't the way it is currently set up.

With 48 hours notice--you have cruise ships stop their vacations--return passengers to home port (b/c it would be cruel to dump them off at the affected port)....and then go and pick up passengers? In 48 hours. Each ship holds--2000-3000 people for large ships.

How do you plan for that?


As far as the residents--it is not a piss poor plan. They had one. You cannot empty a metropolitan area in a matter of hours of all its residents. You cannot. They were getting refuge. That dome sprung a leak--but most were alive to tell about it.


I just don't think that even with the best laid plans--you cannot empty a city in 2 days.

Sure it is inadequate--but there is very little to do to make it better. Unless the United states has a fleet of aircraft that could transport hundreds of thousands of people--you cannot get everyone out.

But I'll humor you.

Does anyone know the capacity of the airport--that if the federal government could commandeer the airline industry--how many people could fly out in one day?

How do you prioritize? How do you verify that this person indeed has no car and no way out. For some--a free trip on an airplane could be much more enticing than sitting in traffic for hours.

And then there are security issues that just cannot be waived. People will still have to go through screening--you can't risk safety.

It all sounds well and good--but all the money in the world would make it happen in 48 hours.

 

[BuckNaked]

With 48 hours notice--you have cruise ships stop their vacations--return passengers to home port (b/c it would be cruel to dump them off at the affected port)....and then go and pick up passengers? In 48 hours. Each ship holds--2000-3000 people for large ships.

Absolutely you stop people's vacations to save people's lives. That's a no-brainer, IMO. As for how many people the ships can hold, that's for a passenger cruise. In an emergency, many, many more can be put onto the ships and sent elsewhere. That's why you make a plan.

As far as the residents--it is not a piss poor plan.

It wasn't? Telling people to leave, and doing nothing to help those that couldn't leave isn't piss poor? So I guess if people don't have the money or means to leave, we just say screw 'em?

They had one. You cannot empty a metropolitan area in a matter of hours of all its residents. You cannot. They were getting refuge. That dome sprung a leak--but most were alive to tell about it.

Coming out at the last minute and saying "Well, if you can't leave town, come to the Superdome" is not a plan. Especially when there wasn't enough food and water to handle everyone that came.

I just don't think that even with the best laid plans--you cannot empty a city in 2 days.

Perhaps not. But without even trying, we'll never know, will we?

But I'll humor you.

That's pretty rich.

Does anyone know the capacity of the airport--that if the federal government could commandeer the airline industry--how many people could fly out in one day?

I don't know the capacity of the airport, but the government can commandeer the civilian fleet.

How do you prioritize? How do you verify that this person indeed has no car and no way out. For some--a free trip on an airplane could be much more enticing than sitting in traffic for hours.

And then there are security issues that just cannot be waived. People will still have to go through screening--you can't risk safety.

It all sounds well and good--but all the money in the world would make it happen in 48 hours.

Really? And you have your degree in emergency planning from where? To say that it simply can't be done without even trying to come up with ideas on how to do it is ridiculous.

 

[momof2inPA]

You're right, there was little to no leadership at the local and state level in NOLA.

Yeah, they expected FEMA to provide the emergency management leadership, which is the sole purpose of FEMA. Let's say the local officials screwed up, but FEMA screwed up worse. This is clearly not a local issue. The damage is regional and widespread and the rescue and cleanup should be managed on a federal level, IMO, and handed off to the states at a later time. Do you think the governors should be calling the shots at this point and telling the guardsmen, the Navy ships, the active duty military what to do?

It's a national disaster. There needs to be federal leadership.

 

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

Well, I hope, if nothing else, as a country we can learn from this and demand more.
This was a breakdown on all levels of Government in all administrations for at least the past 30 years as far as I'm concerned.
I have worked on pumping stations all over Chicago. The pumps for the tunnel that would shut down the expressway that goes past downtown if it flooded is on a hill. There is no chance of the building ever being flooded. The pumps themselves are sealed and in water 24/7. The pumps in NO are currently underwater and stopped working before the worse part of the storm even hit the city? What kind of engineering went into this? They should have been elevated and in a hurricane-proof enclosure. This is one of the biggest ports in the U.S. Cost is not a factor.

I would think that EVERY major US city should have a supply of hand held emergency radios tied in with a federal channel, and would last about a week. They would only bring these out in the event that there is a system wide power failure. Now, FEMA would know there were people at the convention center a few days earlier, and the cops, with proper training could work with the feds to get the help when and where needed ASAP.

I would think with 48 hours notice to clear the city, if they do rebuild, the next time this happens they could require all of the local stores to lock all of their guns up in a vault prior to the storm hitting so that looters don't help themselves to the weapons and create chaos.

I also heard in all of this coverage, but haven't been able to confirm or deny it, that NO gets $10/person every year for emergency food and water. If that's true do they just pocket the money or is this stored in a low area that got flooded? Regardless of if they do or not, as of Sat. morning, Buses would have been loading as much food/water as possible into that dome. AND the Gov. of the state could have shipped some trucks of water down and still gotten the trucks back safely.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Really? And you have your degree in emergency planning from where? To say that it simply can't be done without even trying to come up with ideas on how to do it is ridiculous.

Show me yours and I'll show you mine


And no--I am not saying peoples vacations are more important--but exactly how long do you think it takes to go from the Carribean and drop these people off? There are still capacity restricts--you cannot exceed the capacity no matter the humantarian purpose.

I do suppose the vacationers can be left in any port--foreign country or otherwise--with no place to stay themselves--what do they do? B/c now--it is no longer a vacation.

Ships aren't exactly rockets--and having them go into the gulf of Mexico where there is a major hurricane brewing---you risk the very lives of those you are trying to say. That is my point. It is a noble suggestion--but a dangerous one. Heck--it is taking the medical ship that is on its way---1 week to go from wherever it is on the east coast to get to New Orleans.

(Don't have my ship captains license for ya, sorry ).

Coming out at the last minute and saying "Well, if you can't leave town, come to the Superdome" is not a plan. Especially when there wasn't enough food and water to handle everyone that came.

Can't find a quote--this is from memory--but they had National Guard bring MREs and water---to keep them alive during the storm. I want to say 350,000--but the # sounds too high--so I must be remembering another number--it was enough to feed for 2 days. They were also told to bring their own food and water as well--which a lot of them did. Could they have brought more--okay sure.

The dome has been used before--it was a designated shelter for the sick who couldn't leave and then opened to those who were well and couldn't leave. You start with those that can help themselves the least and then move your way up. The dome was opened within 12 hours of knowing that Katrina was a possibility of striking--and everyone had to be searched before entering. (as they woudl be to get on a cruise ship or an airplane).

I don't know the capacity of the airport, but the government can commandeer the civilian fleet.

That's not what I was asking--it can be commandeered--but you need capacity of time and space. If you can only move 10,000 --what exactly have you accomplished?--you still left 90,000 behind. And there were tens of thousands more who stayed home. You didn't really change anything and we would still be seeing what we are seeing on tv.

(And for mandatory evacuations--checking door to door--how do you check 7200 homes per hour).

 

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

I don't know the capacity of the airport, but the government can commandeer the civilian fleet.

This I'm not too sure about, as most Cruise ships don't have U.S. registries. We were wondering about this the other day.

 

[peachgirl]

(I'd gladly take this up with you on another thread--FEMA is pretty screwed up--but I'm going to limit my discussion now to the preparations of an impending storm and not long term readiness re: levvies and the like).

Nah...there are enough threads about this subject as it is.

My post was directed at someone else as we were discussing how to make the improvements needed to prevent this from happening in the future.

 

[BuckNaked]

Show me yours and I'll show you mine

I don't have one. But then again, I'm not claiming to be an expert on the issue and stating "It can't be done" as a fact.

As I said before, if we don't even try to plan for it, we'll never know if it can be done.

Yeah, they expected FEMA to provide the emergency management leadership, which is the sole purpose of FEMA. Let's say the local officials screwed up, but FEMA screwed up worse. This is clearly not a local issue. The damage is regional and widespread and the rescue and cleanup should be managed on a federal level, IMO, and handed off to the states at a later time. Do you think the governors should be calling the shots at this point and telling the guardsmen, the Navy ships, the active duty military what to do?

No, the governors should not be telling the guardsmen, Navy, military etc what to, that is part of FEMA's mission. Under the current law, FEMA is responsible for coordinating federal assistance. However, it is the responsibility of the state and local officials to tell FEMA what assistance they assistance they need. The local officials are the ones that are there, they are the ones that have to tell FEMA what they need. It is up to FEMA to make sure they get it.

If you want to work to change the law, I'll be there with you. But under current law, FEMA is supposed to coordinate the response, not determine what the response is supposed to be.

 

[BuckNaked]

This I'm not too sure about, as most Cruise ships don't have U.S. registries. We were wondering about this the other day.

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. I'm talking about the civilian airline fleet.

As for foreign registered cruise ships, I doubt they could commandeer them, but they could certainly sign agreements ahead of time, including reimbursement terms, that would allow the ships to be used for lifesaving operations.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I don't have one. But then again, I'm not claiming to be an expert on the issue and stating "It can't be done" as a fact.

As I said before, if we don't even try to plan for it, we'll never know if it can be done.

I see your point. It is my opinion.

However--how is it mathematically possible with the time constraint.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. I'm talking about the civilian airline fleet.

As for foreign registered cruise ships, I doubt they could commandeer them, but they could certainly sign agreements ahead of time, including reimbursement terms, that would allow the ships to be used for lifesaving operations.

It is a good idea--but a hurricanes location can really screw all that up and the plan....probably would not work.

 

[Nancy]

Something that caught my eye in the original post...and I also remember the mayor saying this on Sunday morning.

Why can't the mayor order a mandatory evacution in a situation like this without a court order? I live way up north, we never have evacs. Is this a law everywhere? I heard him say that legally he couldn't order an evacuation and that surprised me. I thought the Mayor or Governor would be the ones that could legally order a mandatory evac.

 

[katerkat]

However--how is it mathematically possible with the time constraint.

Honestly, I don't see why. I watch a wee bit too much of the Discovery Channel and I saw a program on Hawaii's tsnaumi system. They can evacuate the entire coastline in less than 3 hours, I believe. And they also have the problem of determining how serious the threat would be before they get everyone moving - and yet they can still do it in such a short amount of time because they've planned it out and everyone knows what to do. I think the tsnaumi plan is put in the phone book every year.

It is essential for NO to have a plan because they are unlike other coastal towns. Biloxi was devasted, but it's not under water right now. And most of NO's problems is the fact that it's under water.