rinkwide said:
It seems that, after some early challenges, DVD found a very sucessful blueprint for sales and development; smaller, well themed and integrated resorts sprinkled throughout The World.
I think that's a pretty big deductive leap. My own perception is a bit different. If we limit discussion to the on-site resorts, OKW and BWV are both pretty large.
IMO, both BCV and VWL happened for some of the reasons you attach to SSR...finances. Being add-ons to existing resorts, DVD saved a lot of money by not having to build significant infrastructure. No restaurants...no valet...no guest registration...no recreation facilities...no spa/workout facilities...limited pool...limited parking...and so on.
Disney was at something of a crossroads about 5-7 years ago. Seems like OKW and BWV sold pretty well. But VB was an albatross that ended up taking 10 years to sell out, even after plans were scaled back.
If Disney knew that it could jump in and build an 800-room resort in 1998-99 and have sales continue at a brisk pace, they certainly would have done it. But clearly there was still some doubt. So, they comissioned small projects at already successful resorts. If DVC somehow went south, Disney would just keep their share of the 350 BCV/VWL rooms and rent them for cash. There was little up front expense and little risk involved.
Fast forward about 3 years. VWL is a roaring success and BCV is close behind. I think it was some point in 2001 when Disney finally admitted they have something big on their hands. Eagle Pines was announced, which was to be a 700+ room resort if memory serves. And SSR was in the picture as well.
The only problem was that EP was announced about 3 weeks after 9/11/01. By the time Disney really got their hands around 9/11's impact on their finances and foot traffic, someone put a halt to EP.
Shortly thereafter, the pieces fell into place for SSR. The Disney Institute was no longer viable and it was in their best interest to shut it down. So rather than continue with a brand new property along the EP golf course, they leveraged some of the common buildings from the DI, not to mention utilities, sewage, blah, blah, blah. SSR was born.
The original design allowed for 12 buildings with about 550 units. This was just a tad bigger than OKW. Of those 12, only 4 (about 180 units) were part of the "Phase 1" approved for construction.
Continue to move the clock forward...as of fall '03, SSR sales are very brisk. Phase 2 is given the go-ahead, and (perhaps most importantly) Jim Lewis is installed as the new driving force behind DVC.
Move ahead six more months and Phase 3 is announced. While you may see this decision as "chas[ing] the almighty dollar", I think it had more to do with a need on DVC's part. While we don't have exact sales info, it was pretty well known that DVC began exclusively selling Phase 2 points back in September '04 (with the exception of some Phase 1 points held back for current member add-ons.) That means they sold roughly 20% of the resort, sight-unseen, in 12-13 months. They are still selling points ahead of the construction schedule. Extrapolating some data from what we do know to be true, I think DVC determined that there was no way they could announce and construct an entirely new resort within a reasonable time frame following the sell-out of Phase 1 and Phase 2 of SSR.
They may also be trying to buy some time to work out details for the Contemporary or some other dream project.
Whatever the case, I believe that SSR's Phase 3 was based upon need just as much as the finances of the project. There also happens to be pleanty of available land surrounding SSR which can easily be developed. Those fareway villas are just sitting there waiting for the bulldozer to arrive.
Now that their program has gained serious momentum (i.e. profitability) there's a perception that they have, all-of-a-sudden, decided to lower the capital investment and cash out with a new mega-resort. By deviating from a proven formula there's concern that DVD has chosen to simply chase the almighty dollar without as much regard for the overall experience of their membership.
What you call a "formula" I would simply call a series of events that had pleasing results for those involved.
It's also worth noting that Disney has all but run out of Deluxe resorts that could support DVC add-ons. I've never stayed there myself, but I've often heard that the design of AKL basically rules out the possibility of any DVC construction. Ground stability issues around Bay Lake limit the possibilities for the Poly or GF. And then there's the Contemporary. Maybe...maybe not.
It's my opinion that this discussion would be moot if DVD had simply done the right thing and invested in an SSR pool complex that would make SAB look like a mud puddle.
Never will happen. And personally, I don't see anything wrong with the pool at SSR. Comparisons to SAB are totally moot. Disney will never build a pool like that again.
Having now swum in the pool myself, I can honestly say that it is little different than the size of Luna Park at BWV. Luna Park services roughly 400 villas and 300 Inn rooms--pretty much the same number of guest rooms as SSR will have. And, on the day we visited (the warmest day in the last week), the pool area was nowhere near capacity--even when you factor in the fact that only 20% of the resort is open.
