I posted the same basic question on the DVC subReddit, got simlar sentiment answers, so I'll save some typing and post the same reply here for further input/discussion. Thank you all very much!

I'm making a spreadsheet to calculate out a 10yr cost that include a (entirely hypothetical) "return" on the points if sold at the 10yr mark. I also factored out MF increases using the aggregate increases as posted a few places online to calculate what those will (might? should?) cost over a 10yr run as well.

The value of the points is a tough one to nail down based on everything you all stated. Will OKW points that are selling for $100ish now be worth less than half in 2030? Will they be the same? Will they increase in value? What about SSR and AKL?

Basically, we are weighing out whether or not it makes sense to buy DVC, or rent points when we want to go on a trip.

Quick and dirty math (according to my spreadsheet) says that if OKW is worth 50% of it's current average resale price, I lose/spend about $18,700 over 10yrs. At (roughly...because I need a baseline) 5 nights a year, that's $374 a night for a 1bd. Is that less than rack rate? Of course. Significantly so. It's also less than rental (calculating 125pts at $18per). It's NOT less than standard resort rooms though, yet that's difficult to value since a 1bd villa gives kitchen, (food $ savings), notably more space, will encourage less park time/encourage more relaxing (spending/ticket $ savings)... I could spreadsheet myself to death on this one!

At the end of the day, it comes down to what I'm willing to spend for our vacation(s). I do not expect a return, but it needs to "make sense"...if that makes sense. Lol.