2042 Resale Value

[DVC Doctor]

Both of these I view as guesses instead of putting some math behind it and are viewing it from 2020 not from 2030 viewpoints.

• The value with 10 years left would be $68-$75/point

I love your analysis, and accounting for inflation, you are probably correct.

My estimate was expressed In today's dollars, so at 10 years out it would be around $35-40 and with inflation that would be in the $60-70 range in 15 years from now

 

[njmeisje]

Our only 2042 resort is HHI, and we plan to ride that property into our retirement right to the end, so I havent thought much about resale prices in late stages. I think most on-property 2042 resorts will be offered OKW-like extensions, but closer to the 7-10 yrs left mark.

 

[conductr]

Keep in mind when predicting future values of the 2042 contracts that not all 2042 resorts are created equal in terms of supply and demand. For example, BCV has only a fraction of the total points that OKW, BWV, or SSR have. And during food&wine or christmas, BCV is always sold out first. FWIW, I believe that BCV will have higher value indefinitely than these other resorts for that reason.

 

[ldo]

SSR is 2054. BVW is 2042.

 

[CastAStone]

It's a safe bet to say resale value will be at the low end of the scale for the 2042 resorts but maintenance fees will most likely be on the north side of $10 per point. I do think there will be a market for contracts with limited numbers of years on them and quite frankly if DVC sold direct contracts with varying lengths, I might be all over a 10 year contract. But I wouldn't be willing to pay top dollar or even middle dollar for it.

This is why I think 2042 will hold value better than a lot of people think. You might see a 30% decline over the next 10 years, but not 70%.

The most valuable DVC years are the next ~7 years anyway. Anything beyond that is too hard to build assumptions around.

 

[CastAStone]

Here is my guess for OKW resale prices and we will see an acceleration of decreasing value as the time gets closer to the end. Also, I am not sure how extending the contract to 2057 works for resale value, but that could be an interesting play for new buyers.

2020 price = $90pp
2025 = $80
2030 = $65
2035 = $35
2040 = $5
2042 price = $0 pp

At some point Disney will start to ROFR every OKW contract. They aren’t going to let a contract sell for $35 a point in 2035 that they can extend at no cost and sell for $160 a point or more. I think we started to see the beginning of that already earlier this year.

 

[DVC Doctor]

At some point Disney will start to ROFR every OKW contract. They aren’t going to let a contract sell for $35 a point in 2035 that they can extend at no cost and sell for $160 a point or more. I think we started to see the beginning of that already earlier this year.

I hope you are correct as it would be great to unload my OKW to Disney in 15 years for more than what I paid for them

 

[heynowirv]

I hope you are correct as it would be great to unload my OKW to Disney in 15 years for more than what I paid for them

Me too.

 

[Deb & Bill]

If I can get ten more years out of me, I can get ten more years out of OKW which I love. After that, if I can't go any more, I just gift it back to Disney having gotten 33 years out of it or sell it for $25 a point (half what I paid for it brand new). My son probably won't be able to afford the annual fees in ten more years, plus park admission. Who even knows where he will be in ten years? It might be a real pain for him to get to WDW from wherever he has located himself.

 

[glamdring269]

This topic plus the pandemic are why we just went ahead and sold our BRV contract. I know I'm not going back to WDW while the current restrictions are in place so figured 2022 is likely the first time we would head back. We go every other year so obviously we would get to that 10 year mark pretty quick. Given the pandemic uncertainty it seemed like as good a time as any to unload.

This does put us in an interesting position. We are no longer owners, and have no intention to travel to WDW in the next 1-2 years, so now have an opportunity to wait things out to see where prices go.