2042 Prediction(s)

[DougEMG]

One of the reasons I bought RIV was so I would have something in the area to replace my BWV points when they expire. I pretty sure with whatever DVC does with BWV it will be expense to buy and a brand new higher point chart.

Now if they offered a reasonable priced option to extend OKW I would go for that.

 

[muppets3d]

I don't really think the 100 rooms at HHI are the issue with 7 month availability, it's all the people who own points at SSR (a resort that is almost an order of magnitude bigger than HHI) that use their points anywhere but SSR. I'm sure some folks use HHI as SAPs, but the size of the resort makes nowhere near the wave as SSR.

That said, we all have priority at the resorts we own at between 7-11 months, so take advantage of it. If not, you'll be staying at SSR while the owners there stay at your home resort.

As far as what happens in 42? I can't see them selling off any resorts right now. They are all in demand. They may convert over to a trust model, they may not. We'll see. I would count on them remaining in the DVC family in some manner though.

 

[skier_pete]

So I've made this prediction several times.

1) OKW will likely be the only resort to offer extensions to members as the resort nears 2042, because a portion of the resort has already been extended to 2057. The 15 year extensions are offered in the $50 / point range - low enough to tempt a lot of people to do it. The reason they offer this is because what to do with resort in 2042 is left with a tricky options. Do you sell extensions to the public? Do you sell the remaining parts as a "new" 50-year lease? The resort location and design makes it a difficult resort to sell at a price point equal to other DVC resorts. (By 2042 we are probably close to $300 per point for a 50-year lease - can they sell OKW at that price?)

2) HHI and VB are very likely to leave the system and be sold off. I don't think the problem is people buying these resorts and "crowding" the on-site properties, but the problem being that no-one will pay current DVC pricing for a HHI beach resort. (Could you image these resorts at $300 a point and current MF? I don't think so.)

3) I think BRV @ Wilderness lodge is refurbished and resold as is as a new resort. Current owners may be given slight discount to "extend" a new 50-year contract. There's a slight possibility resort is incorporated into CCV and given the 2068 end date, but I think that more unlikely, as they couldn't sell the resort at $300 per point with a 26 year life.

4) BCV and BWV are not resold as is. Resorts go into a major luxury upgrade. Points values are increased to match VGF and Riviera per night basis. Units are then resold at massive profits. Some of the 2-bedroom LO units in BWV are converted to dedicated 2-bedrooms.

5) To OPs post number 4 - that is way off of reality. Since 2000 - Disney has only taken cash rooms OUT of service at Contemporary, Grand Floridian, Poly, Wilderness Lodge, AK Lodge, and now FW cabins. In that same time they have put in a grand total of ONE new resort. In that same time, they have only opened 3 new cash resorts - AKL (which was partly converted to villas), Pop Century, and Art of Animation. DVC resorts are a great deal more profitable than the hotels because they make all their profit upfront and don't have to worry about maintaining occupancy. Resorts like the Poly & Wilderness Lodge were hovering around 75% occupancy when they not co-incidentally converted 20% of the rooms to DVC. Grand Flo was seeing the same problem a few years ago and the solution wasn't to drop the prices at the resort but convert a whole building to DVC and sell it off. Converting DVC resorts back to cash is extremely unlikely to happen.

 

[HappyChurro]

3) I think BRV @ Wilderness lodge is refurbished and resold as is as a new resort. Current owners may be given slight discount to "extend" a new 50-year contract. There's a slight possibility resort is incorporated into CCV and given the 2068 end date, but I think that more unlikely, as they couldn't sell the resort at $300 per point with a 26 year life.

What if they allowed current BRV owners to extend to 2068 and incorporate all the wilderness lodge units into CCV? If the price were right I would jump at that.

I'd love that option but I agree with you and think it more likely Disney would refurbish and resell the BRV as a new 50 year contract at something like $300 per point or whatever the going rate is at that time.

 

[CastAStone]

I don't really think the 100 rooms at HHI are the issue with 7 month availability, it's all the people who own points at SSR (a resort that is almost an order of magnitude bigger than HHI) that use their points anywhere but SSR. I'm sure some folks use HHI as SAPs, but the size of the resort makes nowhere near the wave as SSR.

It’s old Key West, not the beach resorts, that I think of as the real contributor to seven month switching among the 2042 resorts.

Old Key West WAS the original sleep around points.

 

[matt and beth]

Since this is a crystal ball 2042.

Demand for Disney wanes in 18 years. Disney is no longer seen as the it place for entertainment. After another 18 years of evolution in entertainment, Disney has overpriced and oversold their entertainment themes. They’ve grown stale and there’s an eventual backlash. People have moved on from this form of entertainment. Disney has built way too many DVC resorts and have over sold and under delivered. They find it increasingly difficult to even sell what’s out now and find themselves needing any kind of cash influx they can muster. In return, Disney offers extensions on the 2042 contracts, this will bring in much needed revenue, they also need the last few loyal souls to keep returning to keep a revenue stream. They fear cutting off 2042 DVC owners will further the already significant backlash.

Decision will be made by 2034. They can’t afford to let it drag on past this date.

 

[maui22]

4) BCV and BWV are not resold as is. Resorts go into a major luxury upgrade. Points values are increased to match VGF and Riviera per night basis. Units are then resold at massive profits. Some of the 2-bedroom LO units in BWV are converted to dedicated 2-bedrooms.

Aren’t PVB longhouse point charts are as high or higher than VGF for most of the seasons?

Based on what the Island Tower @ PVB cash rates are, expect the PVB theme park view room point charts are going to shatter RIV and VGF.

Personally, if I am looking to buy in 2045 (3 year tear down and rebuild?), I would happily have higher point charts for BWV and BCV with major luxury upgrades than all existing WDW properties.

 

[Lumpy1106]

It has been the elephant in the room for a while and now that we are under 20 years until the 2042s expire it’s time to discuss what DVC will do.

I have a few predictions with explanations to go with them… but would also love to hear what you all think.

1) beginning in 2032 DVC will begin to offer buybacks/extensions to the existing contract holders. The buybacks will allow DVC to begin selling new contracts with updated expiration dates (perhaps 2072?) and will also give existing contract holders the ability to get first crack at the extended contracts.

2) a spinoff? The existing DVC model has a few major flaws so perhaps the 2042s gives DVC the opportunity to create a new DVC 2.0 that fix a few of the flaws by changing the language of the contracts. These new contracts have enhanced benefits for staying at your home resort and will also change the point chart for functionality purposes.

3) knock down/new resort? OKW and BWV may be in need of a re-theme. While I personally don’t feel this way perhaps DVC will want to start from scratch with a couple new resorts. Obviously the fly in the ointment is the 2057s at OKW so maybe the resort would need to close in stages?

4) give the resorts back to Disney’s retail level. Let’s face it Disney could make a lot more money by selling the resorts at the retail level. I feel like this could be most logical given that Disney has been selling a small handful of DVC rooms at the retail level for years.

Not Buybacks - why would they when they can just snipe the lowball offers off of resale? Make no mistake; there will be TONS of lowball offers on resale as 2042 approaches.

For a while I was of the mindset that Disney would just keep adding new towers and the 2042s would go to the regular resort inventory - now I don't think so. DVC gives Disney a guaranteed, don't have to worry about it, revenue stream, regardless of what happens to the economy. 2008, COVID, you name it, Disney did not have to worry about existing DVC contracts during those times.

What are they going to do? I'll have to think about that some more, but my gut says they are just going to let the contracts lapse and put them back on the DVC market as new resorts. They will probably offer incentives to existing owners, especially direct owners, but with history as our guide, the deals won't be all that great when you actually run the numbers. If that is the plan, I would guess you'll see Disney stop building new DVC resorts as 2042 approaches. We are probably looking at 8-10 years of business as usual NMW.

Edit to add:
Here's a thought I have not seen mentioned; what if they offered up OKW as condos? They could get a fortune for those and they are fully contained units.

 

[muppets3d]

Here's a thought I have not seen mentioned; what if they offered up OKW as condos? They could get a fortune for those and they are fully contained units.

Originally they had all DVC resorts be time-limited because they didn't want anyone but them to own property inside the RCID, or at least that is an explanation I have read. But now that Golden Oak exists this is at least a possibility.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I imagine the dissolution of Reedy Creek changed the math on this too. Disney wanted full control but they don't have that anymore. There's almost no reason why they wouldn't offer up some form of on-property condominiums. If not at OKW, then somewhere - but OKW is already built, so seems like kindof a no-brainer. Vero Beach and Hilton Head too since they really don't seem to know what to do with those. And Aulani...

 

[Cfabar1]

A few thoughts:

1) I think buybacks/extensions are unlikely everywhere except for OKW... OKW I think they are going to essentially make a 2057 resort because the logistics are otherwise too difficult to manage.

2) Maybe not a spinoff - but I could see a trust. It is the easy answer to package the whole thing together... That's how the beach resorts stay, if they decide to keep them. It also helps manage the fact some of these properties are more popular and others are less so...

3) I'm not convinced we get a knockdown or retheme as a guarantee... I thiink it will depend on the market forces... The prediction above that Disney could be yesterday's news in 2042 is entirely possible - and if so, they may decide demolishing the Boardwalk is not worth the expense...
I maintain they could sell the Boardwalk in 2042 with only minor/superficial changes and raise the points chart substantially and it would still sell incredibly easily and be very popular.

4) Currently returning the resorts back to the cash side is definitely in opposition to the current plan. However, between now and 2042, who knows... many things could change....

 

[CarolynFH]

Old Key West WAS the original sleep around points.

I believe I understand what you mean here, but I want to point out that SSR was the first DVC resort where the guides actually suggested buying points with the intention of swapping out at 7 months. And it wasn’t unusual to read posts by SSR owners stating they had owned for xx years, had visited WDW each year, and had never stayed in their home resort.

 

[matt and beth]

If… big if. They can keep the Disney magic chugging along

Total Points Sold at each resort if the research totals are correct:

OKW 7.6M
BWV 4.8M
BCW 3.0M
BRV 2.0M

These four alone at $225 per point.

Total: $3,862,800,000

Almost $4 billion dollars! And it’s already built.

 

[DVC Deac]

3) I'm not convinced we get a knockdown or retheme as a guarantee... I thiink it will depend on the market forces... The prediction above that Disney could be yesterday's news in 2042 is entirely possible - and if so, they may decide demolishing the Boardwalk is not worth the expense...
I maintain they could sell the Boardwalk in 2042 with only minor/superficial changes and raise the points chart substantially and it would still sell incredibly easily and be very popular.

Agreed. They could sell BWV and BCV with increased point charts pretty easily in whatever condition they are in when 2042 rolls around. People love walking to Epcot. Also, depending on the refresh/refurb schedule, Disney may not want to tear down buildings that received updates a few years earlier.

Extensions are unlikely. Maybe they try another at OKW to convert more 2042 points to 2057 points. Maybe they offer an extension for BRV to bring it in line with CCV’s end date. I wouldn’t count on either happening, though.

 

[muppets3d]

Just like I don't understand why people are obsessed with the idea that DVC is definitely going to sell the beach resorts in 2042, I likewise don't understand why people are obsessed with the idea that DVC is definitely going to jack up the points charts at the Crescent Lake resorts in 2042 if they remain part of the program.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I imagine the dissolution of Reedy Creek changed the math on this too. Disney wanted full control but they don't have that anymore. There's almost no reason why they wouldn't offer up some form of on-property condominiums. If not at OKW, then somewhere - but OKW is already built, so seems like kindof a no-brainer. Vero Beach and Hilton Head too since they really don't seem to know what to do with those. And Aulani...

Now, this is an interesting concept that I had never considered. They would sell in a heartbeat.

 

[CastAStone]

Just like I don't understand why people are obsessed with the idea that DVC is definitely going to sell the beach resorts in 2042, I likewise don't understand why people are obsessed with the idea that DVC is definitely going to jack up the points charts at the Crescent Lake resorts in 2042 if they remain part of the program.

I don’t think people are obsessed with the idea they’ll sell the beach resorts?

Just like, why wouldn’t they?

 

[Massachusetts]

I imagine the dissolution of Reedy Creek changed the math on this too. Disney wanted full control but they don't have that anymore. There's almost no reason why they wouldn't offer up some form of on-property condominiums. If not at OKW, then somewhere - but OKW is already built, so seems like kindof a no-brainer. Vero Beach and Hilton Head too since they really don't seem to know what to do with those. And Aulani...

Way more profitable to sell tiny pieces of a property rather than full units. I love the idea but Disney isn't going to leave that kind of money on the table.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Way more profitable to sell tiny pieces of a property rather than full units. I love the idea but Disney isn't going to leave that kind of money on the table.

I agree it isn't likely, but it's fun to ponder. OKW's physical plant is also different from where new builds have been trending, so that may also be an excellent argument for divesting themselves of a resort that would likely be a hard sell.

 

[Massachusetts]

I agree it isn't likely, but it's fun to ponder. OKW's physical plant is also different from where new builds have been trending, so that may also be an excellent argument for divesting themselves of a resort that would likely be a hard sell.

Definitely a fun exercise. Pretty sure we could figure out what the ballpark of an site condo might be but I have to imagine it is North of 2.5 million per full unit. I don't think there would be many takers at that price for Central FL in 2042.