2042 Prediction(s)

[hhisc16]

There's a significant difference between not developing additional land vs re-selling an already developed property. I don't know what land goes for in those areas but 3-4M Vero + Hilton Head points potentially re-sold in 2042 for $250+ each is a nice chunk of change. And once sold, there's almost no overhead for Disney since member dues cover operating costs, taxes and upkeep. Disney actually profits from breakage inventory. And there's some intangible benefit to DVC having destinations outside of the two theme parks. More than a few spouses have been swayed into buying after hearing that "you don't have to go to the parks every year; there's also Hawaii, South Carolina and the Florida coast." (RCI fills that role to some extent, but having native resorts owned and operated by Disney is more straightforward.)

Vero isn't much of a tourist area. The beach is lined with private homes. And there are even some undeveloped plots. The land Disney sold off nearby is being developed as residential. Not sure it's fair to conclude that buyers would line up to acquire it from Disney. Hilton Head would probably fetch more interest, but its value is diminished by the fact that the hotel isn't located on the Atlantic coast.

EDIT: The sale price of the unused Vero land wasn't disclosed but before the sale in October 2019, the full resort including both developed and undeveloped land appraised for $4.6 million. If you rework the point charts to get about 1.5M points and sell them as part of a trust beginning in 2042 for ~$250 each...

https://dvcnews.com/other-resorts/vero-beach/4607-disney-completes-sale-of-undeveloped-vero-land

I agree. I think dvc will keep vero beach and hilton head in the portfolio in 2042.

 

[CarolynFH]

My suspicion is folks at DVC spend a lot less time right now considering 2042 than those of us on this board do!

Of course! They simply monitor these forums and keep a list of the suggestions with pros and cons of each. DISboards is great at analysis, and the current decision makers will be gone before final decisions have to be made.

 

[BayTower2010]

There's a significant difference between not developing additional land vs re-selling an already developed property. I don't know what land goes for in those areas but 3-4M Vero + Hilton Head points potentially re-sold in 2042 for $250+ each is a nice chunk of change. And once sold, there's almost no overhead for Disney since member dues cover operating costs, taxes and upkeep. Disney actually profits from breakage inventory. And there's some intangible benefit to DVC having destinations outside of the two theme parks. More than a few spouses have been swayed into buying after hearing that "you don't have to go to the parks every year; there's also Hawaii, South Carolina and the Florida coast." (RCI fills that role to some extent, but having native resorts owned and operated by Disney is more straightforward.)

Vero isn't much of a tourist area. The beach is lined with private homes. And there are even some undeveloped plots. The land Disney sold off nearby is being developed as residential. Not sure it's fair to conclude that buyers would line up to acquire it from Disney. Hilton Head would probably fetch more interest, but its value is diminished by the fact that the hotel isn't located on the Atlantic coast.

EDIT: The sale price of the unused Vero land wasn't disclosed but before the sale in October 2019, the full resort including both developed and undeveloped land appraised for $4.6 million. If you rework the point charts to get about 1.5M points and sell them as part of a trust beginning in 2042 for ~$250 each...

https://dvcnews.com/other-resorts/vero-beach/4607-disney-completes-sale-of-undeveloped-vero-land

Yes, this is definitely the popular view. Who knows, this may just be what Disney does, but I do not think so. One thing for those of us who own DVC points - and I love my DVC points- Disney is just not really a good Hotelier. If it was not for the location to WDW, I would never had bought into DVC. That is their sweet spot, that is why I love my DVC points. I went to Vero Beach once and was totally underwhelmed. Not going into why, it is my experience that one person's yuck is another person's greatness. Just my opinion, but both properties will be sold.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

2042 will simply be a total refurb of all the resorts. They will not tear down any resort, especially BWV and BCV. They will refurb and increase point charts. They might offer presales to existing owners, depends on economy at that point. They might take part of the BC parking lot and extend the DVC portion of BCV as that is one of the few resorts with decent parking. VGF - parking there is a nightmare.

 

[DVCsloth]

2042 will simply be a total refurb of all the resorts. They will not tear down any resort, especially BWV and BCV. They will refurb and increase point charts. They might offer presales to existing owners, depends on economy at that point. They might take part of the BC parking lot and extend the DVC portion of BCV as that is one of the few resorts with decent parking. VGF - parking there is a nightmare.

Could be, but BCV will be over 50 years old in 2042 and BWV not far behind. Might be the time to consider replacing both IMO. Only so much location can do to justify what will most likely be a very expensive purchase price, high point chart and higher dues for an older resort.

 

[jennypenny]

If they didn't rebuild the poly or contemporary at 50, I don't see them doing it anywhere else (except maybe expanding BCV). I could see them converting hotel rooms early so that a new association was ready to go in 2042 and then renovate/fold in the old rooms afterwards.

No point in guessing because there will be 3-4 DVC heads with 3-4 different 'visions' between now and then. All that matters is who happens to be in charge and what disney stock is doing the day decisions have to be made. Even a great plan could be scuttled if disney is in a financial slump. Who knows ... if DVC interest wanes they might go back to being hotel rooms.

 

[CarolMN]

Could be, but BCV will be over 50 years old in 2042 and BWV not far behind. Might be the time to consider replacing both IMO. Only so much location can do to justify what will most likely be a very expensive purchase price, high point chart and higher dues for an older resort.

Just being picky - BWV opened in 1996 and BCV in 2002. (But your point remains the same).

 

[DVCsloth]

Just being picky - BWV opened in 1996 and BCV in 2002. (But your point remains the same).

Was it just Yacht Club back then and DVC was added as BCV? I wasn't very familiar with it back then though.

 

[Mikey15]

Some points that have come up that stick out for me:

-The oldest DVC buildings right now are not at OKW, but are Polynesian longhouses already 50 years old, with most likely 40+ more ahead of them

-In general, buildings aren’t torn down and rebuilt, or taken down to the studs and redone, because of age-related structural issues. Those things happen because the use for that land/location has changed.

-I hadn’t really thought about how Disney hasn’t built new “hotel rooms” in a long time, but it’s true. They’ve built DVCs instead, hanging onto some DVC rooms that they rent out for cash through their hotel booking system, but largely taking advantage of the financial benefits to them of DVC:
The construction costs of DVC buildings are recouped quickly through profitable DVC sales, unlike hotel builds which tie up capital for decades, requiring debt or equity financing.
DVC accelerates profit recognition and brings in its own capital via DVC buyers.

So some 2042s might be turned into completely different visions at that point. But it won’t be all of them, because it doesn’t have to be. They also might not sell ones CW thinks they will sell, because a reno & flip for another 40-50 years of members may be more profitable than a cash sale, alongside some intangible benefits.

 

[Mikey15]

Just being picky - BWV opened in 1996 and BCV in 2002. (But your point remains the same).

Yacht & Beach opened in 1990 but I’m guessing BCV was a newly constructed wing in 2002, rather than a conversion of hotel rooms?

 

[DebbieB]

Yacht & Beach opened in 1990 but I’m guessing BCV was a newly constructed wing in 2002, rather than a conversion of hotel rooms?

Yes, separate building built in the parking lot.

 

[CarolynFH]

No point in guessing because there will be 3-4 DVC heads with 3-4 different 'visions' between now and then.

Exactly. We can speculate all we want, but the decisions won’t be made for quite some time.

 

[VAlegacy]

If I owned at one of the 2042 resorts I'd be looking to sell today and rebuy at one of the 2060+ resorts. Sure you could wait another 10 years to see how it plays out, but what happens if in 2030 its announced that in fact your deed will expire with no extension or other options? That was the original deal anyway. The closer you get to that day the less options you have and the more time decay you are going to suffer, similar to stock options. I think the price / point delta between the 42 and 60+ resorts is going to increase in the coming years due to these factors.
Points are lower resale right now so you'll take a hit selling, but you'll make it up rebuying. This was one of the major deciding factors when we bought CCV a few years ago, and we cant be the only ones thinking that way.

 

[DVCsloth]

If I owned at one of the 2042 resorts I'd be looking to sell today and rebuy at one of the 2060+ resorts. Sure you could wait another 10 years to see how it plays out, but what happens if in 2030 its announced that in fact your deed will expire with no extension or other options? That was the original deal anyway. The closer you get to that day the less options you have and the more time decay you are going to suffer, similar to stock options. I think the price / point delta between the 42 and 60+ resorts is going to increase in the coming years due to these factors.
Points are lower resale right now so you'll take a hit selling, but you'll make it up rebuying. This was one of the major deciding factors when we bought CCV a few years ago, and we cant be the only ones thinking that way.

The only thing is that it is always going to be worth the remaining points and ability to book at 11 months out. The other thing is a lot of 2042 people have owned for a long time, so they are only paying dues to stay at their resort. I think it can be a positive to just let the contract finish and walk away.

 

[VAlegacy]

The only thing is that it is always going to be worth the remaining points and ability to book at 11 months out. The other thing is a lot of 2042 people have owned for a long time, so they are only paying dues to stay at their resort. I think it can be a positive to just let the contract finish and walk away.

Agree with your sentiment completely, but I think a decision will be made sooner than people think.
In the near future it will make more economical sense to book a cash room opposed to the price of a new deed, as your window to collect those savings of points v cash is only 18 years.
If I was in my golden years I'd not worry and let it expire.
If I were young or wanted to pass on id be selling and rebuying when there is still value vice waiting till there is none.

 

[DVCsloth]

Agree with your sentiment completely, but I think a decision will be made sooner than people think.
In the near future it will make more economical sense to book a cash room opposed to the price of a new deed, as your window to collect those savings of points v cash is only 18 years.
If I was in my golden years I'd not worry and let it expire.
If I were young or wanted to pass on id be selling and rebuying when there is still value vice waiting till there is none.

Definitely think the time to buy say BCV resale has since passed unless you just want to own there and don't care if it costs a little bit more. But if you stay in 1 BR's the cash price for these are astronomical so you still may be better off buying than renting. We just stayed in a 1BR BCV for 7 nights on points and I think the cash price with Florida resident 30% off was still over $700 per night and I think they are charging 2 taxes, resort fee and parking that DVC doesn't pay extra for.

 

[cdirazonian]

If I was in my golden years I'd not worry and let it expire.
If I were young or wanted to pass on id be selling and rebuying when there is still value vice waiting till there is none.

Exactly, I love our BWV and will run it til the end. I’m older, I’ll be 74 when it expires don’t/won’t sell it.
The 2042 expiration did get me thinking last summer which is why we ended up purchasing VGF (that & the great sale) for a longer expiration.
I’m just hoping we’re healthy enough to still enjoy it, like my mother who at 84 still wants to go to experience it with grandkids.

 

[tjkraz]

Agree with your sentiment completely, but I think a decision will be made sooner than people think.
In the near future it will make more economical sense to book a cash room opposed to the price of a new deed, as your window to collect those savings of points v cash is only 18 years.
If I was in my golden years I'd not worry and let it expire.
If I were young or wanted to pass on id be selling and rebuying when there is still value vice waiting till there is none.

If owners are being rational about it, I think it comes down to how much they value a particular destination.

Imagine someone wants to own for about 40 more years--roughly 2065. And they currently own a 2042 resort. Following your logic, they have a couple options:

1) Sell their '42 resort now and buy into something like Poly or Copper Creek which runs to their desired end date.
2) Hang onto the '42 resort, and when those points expire, buy something which has even less time remaining. In 2042, you will probably be able to get a pretty good deal on some SSR points with only 12 years left. Or AKV with 15 years remaining. Or, this hypothetical person could realize that they no longer value Disney like they once did.

If someone loves a location like BWV or BCV, it seems wise to hang onto those points and ride them to the end. But if person is a Poly fan, maybe go the other direction.

 

[DVCsloth]

If owners are being rational about it, I think it comes down to how much they value a particular destination.

Imagine someone wants to own for about 40 more years--roughly 2065. And they currently own a 2042 resort. Following your logic, they have a couple options:

1) Sell their '42 resort now and buy into something like Poly or Copper Creek which runs to their desired end date.
2) Hang onto the '42 resort, and when those points expire, buy something which has even less time remaining. In 2042, you will probably be able to get a pretty good deal on some SSR points with only 12 years left. Or AKV with 15 years remaining. Or, this hypothetical person could realize that they no longer value Disney like they once did.

If someone loves a location like BWV or BCV, it seems wise to hang onto those points and ride them to the end. But if person is a Poly fan, maybe go the other direction.

I know I'd be holding on to it till it expires. Walk away and don't owe any dues can be a nice thing.

 

[VAlegacy]

If owners are being rational about it, I think it comes down to how much they value a particular destination.

Imagine someone wants to own for about 40 more years--roughly 2065. And they currently own a 2042 resort. Following your logic, they have a couple options:

1) Sell their '42 resort now and buy into something like Poly or Copper Creek which runs to their desired end date.
2) Hang onto the '42 resort, and when those points expire, buy something which has even less time remaining. In 2042, you will probably be able to get a pretty good deal on some SSR points with only 12 years left. Or AKV with 15 years remaining. Or, this hypothetical person could realize that they no longer value Disney like they once did.

If someone loves a location like BWV or BCV, it seems wise to hang onto those points and ride them to the end. But if person is a Poly fan, maybe go the

We are also a family of 6, so options have been good even at 7 months for 2 BR. We stayed at BCV over 4th of July week at the 7 month window.
Just what I would do personally as a hedge, to withdraw money from my contract and apply it to new, while safeguarding guaranteeing continued magic into the future.
Understand though that everyone's situation is different.