2023 resale price speculation

[tom1944]

I have found….. and i may have been really lucky with the timing, that 10 years is about the break even…. Your result may be different .

By my math, and other will disagree you would be a wash, but well ahead of rack rate, and your daughter would basically just be paying dues to go on vacation…. Again, very far ahead of rack rate…

Again, speculating here…..

at some point in the next 5, 10, 15 years disney will have gotten the ship righted and back on course….and the DVC contract you leave her will be a good thing ….

That is in line with my thoughts

 

[Brian Noble]

I will leave her enough money to cover future fees but she might not want the obligation.

And that’s definitely understandable. Money is not the only thing you are spending on vacation; you are also spending time. Some people would really enjoy spending that time with the Mouse. Others would not.

Arguably, the time is more important. As I used to tell my grad students, money is a renewable resource. Time on the other hand? Not so much.

 

[tom1944]

And that’s definitely understandable. Money is not the only thing you are spending on vacation; you are also spending time. Some people would really enjoy spending that time with the Mouse. Others would not.

Arguably, the time is more important. As I used to tell my grad students, money is a renewable resource. Time on the other hand? Not so much.

I agree although she has a young daughter so there is some benefit to WDW for them.

Especially if the lodging is paid for

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I'm not sure what caused the hysteria buying the last two years to have gone up that high and to come down so fast.

There were zero contracts on the market for months and months. If a VGC came up it went within minutes. People could ask $5 more than the last person and always get it.

People also believed that that would last forever, that there was no risk in bidding ever higher or value in waiting out the run. You can find that belief all over this subforum. Why did the run up stop? There’s not many people who wanted to pay $300+ a point for VGC. They all bought and since then contracts have just stalled out. We went from the shocker of there being 3 contracts available simultaneously to what do we have now, 30? The price will keep falling until that number gets back to low single digits.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There were zero contracts on the market for months and months. If a VGC came up it went within minutes. People could ask $5 more than the last person and always get it.

People also believed that that would last forever, that there was no risk in bidding ever higher or value in waiting out the run. You can find that belief all over this subforum. Why did the run up stop? There’s not many people who wanted to pay $300+ a point for VGC. They all bought and since then contracts have just stalled out. We went from the shocker of there being 3 contracts available simultaneously to what do we have now, 30? The price will keep falling until that number gets back to low single digits.

The DVC market the last two years was indeed crazy. Hopefully, the market will stabilize and will increase more gradually and sustainably. Since I bought my VGC for $220pp in 2020, the current value of around $240-250pp is still about 9-13% increase, which is still higher than what I expected 2 years ago. Unclear how VDH will further impact VGC resale value. No matter what happens, I'm happy I bought when I did.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

The DVC market the last two years was indeed crazy. Hopefully, the market will stabilize and will increase more gradually and sustainably. Since I bought my VGC for $220pp in 2020, the current value of around $240-250pp is still about 9-13% increase, which is still higher than what I expected 2 years ago. Unclear how VDH will further impact VGC resale value. No matter what happens, I'm happy I bought when I did.

That’s great. Yeah, If you’re not planning to ever sell, I think you should be happy even if it falls to $70. Or $30.

I bought a 32” TV in 2006 for $600 and now you could get a better 32” TV than that one for $99, and I couldn’t get more than $30 for mine. I’m not really that concerned about it though if I’m being honest. That TV has brought me 16 years of TV watching.

 

[AC168]

Epcot is 100% right

 

[RanDIZ]

Yes! People who think DVC resale prices never drop were not watching the market in 2009-11.

Yes those were some tough times. It makes you wonder why Disney would decide to build a DVC property from the ground up with inflation at its highest in 40yrs and a looming recession.

 

[DonMacGregor]

That’s great. Yeah, If you’re not planning to ever sell, I think you should be happy even if it falls to $70. Or $30.

I bought a 32” TV in 2006 for $600 and now you could get a better 32” TV than that one for $99, and I couldn’t get more than $30 for mine. I’m not really that concerned about it though if I’m being honest. That TV has brought me 16 years of TV watching.

Tell me you bought a TV without an exit strategy, without telling me you bought a TV without an exit strategy...

 

[Nabas]

Yes those were some tough times. It makes you wonder why Disney would decide to build a DVC property from the ground up with inflation at its highest in 40yrs and a looming recession.

I suspect the decision to build Poly Tower was made at a time when inflation was thought to be transitory. Once that ball is rolling, it’s tough to push it back uphill.

Still, I agree. They have Aulani, Riviera, Grand Floridian, plus another opening soon in California. Covid created a great deal of economic uncertainty. It does seem crazy to be opening a fifth DVC.

When the Great Recession hit in 2008, DVC was selling 3 resorts (SSR, BLT, AKV). Theme park profits plummeted and DVC resale prices hit an all-time low.

It just seems that 2023 or 2024 could become a repeat of 2008.

 

[Cfabar1]

Resale prices will hit a low because people are hoping to sell, but 2023 could be worse given the large number of 2042 points.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

I may be new to DVC, but I’ve read a lot about the history of financial bubbles and they aren’t just a phenomenon of the stock market. A quick look at the M2 money supply and it’s growth rate in 2020 goes a long way to explain the ebullience of the market’s taste and tolerance for stock of unprofitable companies during 2020 and early 2021. I would guess there’s a relationship between price speculation in stocks during this time and DVC resale prices also appreciating simultaneously.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Yes those were some tough times. It makes you wonder why Disney would decide to build a DVC property from the ground up with inflation at its highest in 40yrs and a looming

And that’s definitely understandable. Money is not the only thing you are spending on vacation; you are also spending time. Some people would really enjoy spending that time with the Mouse. Others would not.

Arguably, the time is more important. As I used to tell my grad students, money is a renewable resource. Time on the other hand? Not so much.

Yes, money may be renewable, but it seems to be buying less and less each year. That’s been going on for centuries.

“Americans are getting stronger. Twenty years ago it took two people to carry $10 worth of groceries. Today a 5-year-old does it.” - Henny Youngman

While money is a tool only, it seems like one many of us are bad at handling it, especially when given a lot of it. I’ll take more time, please. I can always learn to be more wise then.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Yes those were some tough times. It makes you wonder why Disney would decide to build a DVC property from the ground up with inflation at its highest in 40yrs and a looming recession.

@DonMacGregor how likely is the financing wrapped up for Poly2 prior to breaking ground? Is there a lag where the Fed’s 17 25bps hikes would actually affect the Poly2 financials? While I’m outside my realm of knowledge on this, it’s difficult for me to see a project of this size being impacted solely by economic happenings in the last 12 months and with the quality of a company like Disney.

 

[pianomanzano]

I think it will depend on how many contracts end up on the market. It’s still pretty early in the game for many who bought RIV.

But, if we see a more of them on the market I think there is a chance go down to the $110 to $115 range as an average and not just a few outliers.

Agreed. Add to that the people who have contracts up for sale that are still paying them off. They won't have much room to maneuver unless they're willing to bring money to the table at closing. That's perhaps why there's contracts at 150+/pt sitting for a couple months now.

Just don't beat me to any deals in the sub-$100 range! We'll definitely add on more RIV resale if it gets that low.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Yes those were some tough times. It makes you wonder why Disney would decide to build a DVC property from the ground up with inflation at its highest in 40yrs and a looming recession.

Probably because that recession has been **looming** for years and sales/demand were close to the strongest they’d ever been when Disney announced the decision.

 

[Brian Noble]

I’ll take more time, please. I can always learn to be more wise then.

Depending on your philosophy, metaphysics, or religion this isn’t something you get to do. In mine, clean living might buy you a little but only at the margins. Arguably I’m already playing with house money.

As Vin Scully put it: we are all day to day.

 

[Brian Noble]

she has a young daughter so there is some benefit to WDW for them.

But there is also benefit to the beach. Or a cabin on the lake. Or hiking in the mountains. Or their local amusement park. Or or or. There are plenty of ways to make great family memories together when the kids are young. Disney is definitely one of them but it is not the only one.

 

[tom1944]

But there is also benefit to the beach. Or a cabin on the lake. Or hiking in the mountains. Or their local amusement park. Or or or. There are plenty of ways to make great family memories together when the kids are young. Disney is definitely one of them but it is not the only one.

I agree

The decision is hers to make

If she feels she is not interested but my wife and I decide we still would like to own then we will look at the potential resorts we buy from a different perspective

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Depending on your philosophy, metaphysics, or religion this isn’t something you get to do. In mine, clean living might buy you a little but only at the margins. Arguably I’m already playing with house money.

As Vin Scully put it: we are all day to day.

My mentioning the idea of learning to be more wise was a very loose paraphrase of a Woody Allen quote. It's something like, "I would rather be young than wise; I can always learn to be wise." I agree with Vin Scully. Life is a lot more fragile than we realize.