Okay, I kept thinking about this, and I'll add that I'd start out not planning to race the marathon if a) the medical people tell me I shouldn't, or b) it seems like the break from running will have a large effect on my fitness that will render seeing how fast I can run significantly less effective (hoping to mitigate some of this with cross-training but we'll see). Whether I do the half if I know beforehand I'm not running the marathon is still up in the air.Thanks for sharing. That's certainly disappointing from my perspective, but I appreciate hearing about your experience.
I think for me, if I can't race the marathon I'm not going to run it. I did my "just finish" marathon at Disney, and the point of this one was to see how fast I can go. I could still do the half easy, but even "easy" marathon recovery takes so long, not to mention trying to recover from the Achilles strain, that it doesn't seem worth it to do it "for fun".
On the bright side, the way the course works, I can make that call any time up to mile 13.1, so if I do have issues, I will just jog/walk it in at the half. The only thing on my schedule after this is MW half/PW challenge, which I don't feel the need to race and could even walk if I had to, so I have plenty of time for recovery afterwards. So far all the medical professionals have indicated running the marathon is okay, so that's my plan for now.
Interesting. (Side note, what's up with that photo? Lol) So then the question is, how much does the decrease in VDOT affect marathon performance? And does it matter if you're missing 10 days of the real training vs. 10 days of the taper? (Also, if your head explodes from not doing anything, does that have an additional impact on your fitness?I know there’s a chart (Daniels maybe) somewhere that shows that you lose like 1-3% of your fitness if you do nothing for 2 weeks.
Chart here.
Ho, I reread myself and see that I was not very clear. The race that I held back on was a 5k, not the marathon. I will correct my post. Keep hoping and resting.Thanks for sharing. That's certainly disappointing from my perspective, but I appreciate hearing about your experience.
I think for me, if I can't race the marathon I'm not going to run it. I did my "just finish" marathon at Disney, and the point of this one was to see how fast I can go. I could still do the half easy, but even "easy" marathon recovery takes so long, not to mention trying to recover from the Achilles strain, that it doesn't seem worth it to do it "for fun".
On the bright side, the way the course works, I can make that call any time up to mile 13.1, so if I do have issues, I will just jog/walk it in at the half. The only thing on my schedule after this is MW half/PW challenge, which I don't feel the need to race and could even walk if I had to, so I have plenty of time for recovery afterwards. So far all the medical professionals have indicated running the marathon is okay, so that's my plan for now.
Gotcha! Yeah, I'd have no problem taking anything up to a half marathon super easy. So TBD whether I end up with an easy half or a hard full.Ho, I reread myself and see that I was not very clear. The race that I held back on was a 5k, not the marathon. I will correct my post. Keep hoping and resting.
Hey @DopeyBadger, got any data on how not running at all for a week and a half affects marathon performances??![]()
(Also, if your head explodes from not doing anything, does that have an additional impact on your fitness?)
Thanks for the analysis. I think the VDOT loss is somewhat mitigated by not missing ALL of the running for two weeks, but the loss of peaking does seem like it could be more of a problem as my mileage dropped off much more abruptly than planned.I use the same chart @Herding_Cats posted. According to Daniels, you lose 0.3% of VDOT linearly after 5 days off when doing no other aerobic leg exercises as a replacement. You lose 0.015% VDOT when doing aerobic leg exercises (like cycling).
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You'll be off for roughly 14 days, which without cycling would be 97.3% of previous and with cycling 98.6%. I'll use a 3:45 runner as an example.
-If you were a 3:45 marathon runner (VDOT of 41.0), and did not cycling replacement then you would be a VDOT of 39.9 or a 3:50:15 runner. So you lose about 5 min of fitness.
-If you were a 3:45 marathon runner (VDOT of 41.0), and did cycling replacement, then you would be a VDOT of 40.4 or a 3:47:45 runner. So you lose about 2.5 min of fitness.
For comparison, if you trained in cold weather, and suddenly your marathon was under T+D 140 conditions, you would go from a 3:45 runner to at least a 3:51:45 runner.
I've used this calculator a few times after taking extended breaks and it has been fairly accurate to assess my fitness upon returning to training.
There's a catch, your VDOT fitness alone would not be the only consideration. Your running training load would too, and more specifically your peaking. While your fitness may be in the 3:47-3:50 area from a 3:45 runner, the bigger issue is that the lack of running in these last two weeks is going to likely cause the loss of peaking. So your fitness may be there, but your ability to race at that fitness level is even less likely there. If this 2 week break occurred 10 weeks prior to the race, it hits different than it being the last 2 weeks before the race itself.
So, the injury not withstanding (which should be a paramount consideration, and try to keep the long term in mind, because I suspect the recovery from a torn achilles is a long term road back vs missing out on this one racing opportunity with years of good running left), your ability to race will be hampered. My own personal example was the 2018 Chicago Marathon. I injured my ankle in July/August 2018 (about 2 months before the race). I raced a HM in mid-August 1:37:35. Started exclusive biking from 8/19 through 9/6 (a little over 2 weeks). Returned to exclusive running 9/13. Raced the Chicago M on 10/7. For my non-Dopey Ms and after starting 6 days per week running, my marathons were usually -2 min to +7 min from predicted. Chicago 2018 was +18 min. So my fitness might have been there, but my ability to race was hampered by the break in running roughly 1 month before my race and having had 3 weeks of running prior to the marathon itself.
Probably not what you want to hear, but the odds aren't in your favor. Doesn't mean you can't do it, just means it's more difficult to predict than if it had never happened.
That's great news!!Just got back from my 5 miles easy and no Achilles pain! A little sluggish but that's probably to be expected after not running for *counts on fingers* 3 days.
I know that doesn't necessarily mean I'll be fine for a marathon, but at least we're trending in the right direction!
Somehow, this seems to be asking for a joke...I was going to try some aqua jogging afterwards, but it rained all afternoon.
You will be more aerodynamic!Also, if your head explodes from not doing anything, does that have an additional impact on your fitness?
You could've just tripped over a crack
So, analysis: Why This Happened, and How To Make Sure It Doesn't Happen Again.