Wilma landfalled as CAT 3... Damage Reports just coming in

[Disneyglobegirl]

Okay, this is the last one, right? We're out of letters, so the weather can't make any more TS.

(yeah, I wish)

Oh I wished it worked that way! LOL

 

[Brianne]

Okay, this is the last one, right? We're out of letters, so the weather can't make any more TS.

(yeah, I wish)

I wish too. Just means they're going Greek from here on out!

Personally, I don't think Tampa's going to see much more than some wind & rain---the NHC has it shifting southwest, and considering they've been pretty much right on with hurricane tracking, I'm going to believe them over anyone else. They've given no indication that it's going to suddenly land over Tampa; and considering it's still a number of days away, anyone would be remiss to say otherwise.

Unfortunately, with it shifting that way, it looks like New Orleans could be in for some more terrible weather, which really sucks for them.

My opinion? No reason to panic until there is solid reason to panic; I don't think there's reason to panic yet....and considering it's entering the Gulf of Mexico, it's not going to impact Orlando much other than a bit of rain as long as stays far north or west of the I-4 corridor (for those worried about WDW vacations).

 

[Disneyglobegirl]

I think this one is giving the forecasters a run for their money. These models all seem to have changed again - We'll all have to keep an eye on it.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

I wish too. Just means they're going Greek from here on out!

Personally, I don't think Tampa's going to see much more than some wind & rain---the NHC has it shifting southwest, and considering they've been pretty much right on with hurricane tracking, I'm going to believe them over anyone else. They've given no indication that it's going to suddenly land over Tampa; and considering it's still a number of days away, anyone would be remiss to say otherwise.

Unfortunately, with it shifting that way, it looks like New Orleans could be in for some more terrible weather, which really sucks for them.

My opinion? No reason to panic until there is solid reason to panic; I don't think there's reason to panic yet....and considering it's entering the Gulf of Mexico, it's not going to impact Orlando much other than a bit of rain as long as stays far north or west of the I-4 corridor (for those worried about WDW vacations).

lol...

Me and NHC are looking at same thing. The NHC is putting Tampa at higest risk. The models which moved to the west have now shifted back to FL. Even if ended up more west now, the trough will eventually pull it N and NE. The models are now point more towards Tampa again. Some have not changed and said Tampa the whole time.

Matt

 

[Miss Jasmine]

It's way too early to tell what is going to happen. The models keep shifting (as the often do), so at this point watch and wait, and don't worry about it until later in the week. It really depends on if Wilma keeps moving southernly or if she starts to take a more westernly component (yes it could still make a difference since all the weather patterns won't be in place until later in the week). The more she moves south, the more likely she will go more east later.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

I think this one is giving the forecasters a run for their money. These models all seem to have changed again - We'll all have to keep an eye on it.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

The couple point towards Tampa concern NHC. Mostly because those are two we rely on the most. This is deffinitely a tough one to forecast. IF this hits south of tampa a bit and goes NE, WDW could get nasty weather. I am only reporting after reading NHC's data. So you can take or leave it I guess.

Matt

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

It's way too early to tell what is going to happen. The models keep shifting (as the often do), so at this point watch and wait, and don't worry about it until later in the week.

Exactly to early to really panic. But this is the scary part, two reliable models, Euro and CMC have said Tampa from day 1. The other two GFS, and GFDL that trail off keep coming back. The nogaps is being disregarded right now. Now that TS Wilma is getting her self together the models will be her better giving us a better idea on where she goes. I am worried people try to down play things to much. Look at the lack of preperation for Katrina. Saying to just worry about it later makes sense in some ways. Just dont blow it off, be prepared. In my opinion if you live from Pensacola to Key West, you need to be watching this closely and prepared to take action.

Matt

 

[Disneyglobegirl]

Thanks Matt!

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Your welcome!


11am Update

I have shifted the track to the east somewhat due to GFS and GFDL coming back in line with earlier thinking. I am not ready to totally shift it to Cuba quite yet. I need to see these model runs to be similar the next two runs. The NHC still thinks TS Wilma will approach a weakness and travel north, eventually will be pulled NE by a trough. Now that Wilma is more developed, models should get a better indication of where its going. West Coasters, dont let your guard down. Stay Tuned!

 

[Brianne]

Point is, you can't really track a hurricane more than 2 days out, and even then the storm can shift dramatically (ask those living in Punta Gorda last year). Considering this one looks to still be sitting in the middle of the GOM this weekend, my guess is we won't know a thing until after the weekend at the earliest.

My opinions seem to match those with the Central Florida Hurricane Center, who say:

At this time it seems prudent that we watch it, but I'd imagine those on the Yucatan should be watching it more. I'm in the camp that thinks it will stay further south and west, but it is still vital to watch trends over time. We have time to watch and prepare if something were to occur.

Models are all well and good, but they're computers---the weather can change in a second. It's just too soon to say it's headed for one place; even the NHC's website says nothing at all about Tampa right now.

I do respect those who follow weather for a living; mine is simply an interest considering I live here & want to protect my home & family...plus it is a fascinating subject, really. But there is a reason why I do not follow local news---they pull out the "chicken little" routine constantly, and I do believe media hype is what causes people to panic. I err on the side of caution, but I don't fall into the hype either.

 

[AdventurerKat]

I do respect those who follow weather for a living; mine is simply an interest considering I live here & want to protect my home & family...plus it is a fascinating subject, really. But there is a reason why I do not follow local news---they pull out the "chicken little" routine constantly, and I do believe media hype is what causes people to panic. I err on the side of caution, but I don't fall into the hype either.

I try not to watch our local news as well. Or the Weather Channel anymore when they were announcing every single tropical wave out there, we would have been to the end of the Greek alphabet if every wave they announced had turned into something.

I live in Sarasota and am headed to Orlando the weekend of Halloween. I will keep an eye on it and continue to hope it goes the other way but like many have said, probably too early to predict the where, although I wish we had a better idea of the when.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Point is, you can't really track a hurricane more than 2 days out, and even then the storm can shift dramatically (ask those living in Punta Gorda last year). Considering this one looks to still be sitting in the middle of the GOM this weekend, my guess is we won't know a thing until after the weekend at the earliest.

My opinions seem to match those with the Central Florida Hurricane Center, who say:

At this time it seems prudent that we watch it, but I'd imagine those on the Yucatan should be watching it more. I'm in the camp that thinks it will stay further south and west, but it is still vital to watch trends over time. We have time to watch and prepare if something were to occur.

Models are all well and good, but they're computers---the weather can change in a second. It's just too soon to say it's headed for one place; even the NHC's website says nothing at all about Tampa right now.

I do respect those who follow weather for a living; mine is simply an interest considering I live here & want to protect my home & family...plus it is a fascinating subject, really. But there is a reason why I do not follow local news---they pull out the "chicken little" routine constantly, and I do believe media hype is what causes people to panic. I err on the side of caution, but I don't fall into the hype either.

BINGO, great points.

It's way too early to say that one area or another MAY be affected. There is a lot that has to take place, sometimes fronts get delayed, etc. That is why the models are shifting SO much east to west with each run.

 

[Brianne]

Whoever ends up inventing the ability to predict the where & when of every hurricane will end up being a billionaire a million times over.

I think I know what direction I need to push my kids when they grow up....

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Okie dokie. Delayed fronts actually isnt the reason for models flipping, doesnt matter though. Good Luck. Not trying to hype but shair facts that I receive by being in direct communication with NHC. No offense but I would rather listen to the actual offical Hurricane Center then central florida one. Everyone can make there own assumptions and obviously whatever I say wont change that. I guess I just dont think you understand all thats going on.

Have a Magical Day,
Matt

 

[Brianne]

Okie dokie. Delayed fronts actually isnt the reason for models flipping, doesnt matter though. Good Luck. Not trying to hype but shair facts that I receive by being in direct communication with NHC. No offense but I would rather listen to the actual offical Hurricane Center then central florida one. Everyone can make there own assumptions and obviously whatever I say wont change that. I guess I just dont think you understand all thats going on.

Have a Magical Day,
Matt

I did say I've been following the NHC---did I not link to them a couple posts ago? Tell me where it says Tampa on this link ? Or on this link ?

These are the official statements coming from them, which (as far as I know, since I admit to not working for a news station) are the exact statements that the news stations are receiving, unless they're getting secret statements from the NHC?

The Central Florida Hurricane Center uses mulitple sites, including NHC, and they've been pretty level-headed in their discussions.

Not looking to start a debate, but I do think it's fair to put all information out there without trying to cause a panic.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Okie dokie. Delayed fronts actually isnt the reason for models flipping, doesnt matter though. Good Luck. Not trying to hype but shair facts that I receive by being in direct communication with NHC. No offense but I would rather listen to the actual offical Hurricane Center then central florida one. Everyone can make there own assumptions and obviously whatever I say wont change that. I guess I just dont think you understand all thats going on.

Have a Magical Day,
Matt

Matt, weather patterns don't affect some modeling (I know not all models)?!!??!! I know you are trying to be helpful, but you have to admit it is too early to really know. As for the weather site referenced, some of the posters are Meteorologists and certainly know what they are talking about. I wouldn't have survived last hurricance season with my sanity intact without them.

 

[Tigger_Magic]

Okie dokie. Delayed fronts actually isnt the reason for models flipping, doesnt matter though. Good Luck. Not trying to hype but shair facts that I receive by being in direct communication with NHC. No offense but I would rather listen to the actual offical Hurricane Center then central florida one. Everyone can make there own assumptions and obviously whatever I say wont change that. I guess I just dont think you understand all thats going on.

Have a Magical Day,
Matt

I believe almost everyone posting or reading here understands what is going on. But some people are not ready to give into full blown panic mode just yet, especially when there are so many variables involved. Even the "official Hurricane Center" has been wrong on a number of their predictions that are more than a day or two in advance. No one knows where this storm will hit or what category it will be when it does hit.

No sense borrowing tomorrow's trouble for today because today has plenty enough to go around.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

I get you guys. Not trying to start panic here either. I guess just giving the possibilities. Just wait and see. I am not saying NHC references Tampa exactly. But references a zonal flow which would agree with models pulling it into florida.

matt

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

lol. I am not in on secret statements. I am in on conferences so I here what there discussing which is why some info insnt on NHC's site.

Matt

 

[AdventurerKat]

Matt, I hope you will continue to share what you find out. Thank you.