Wilma landfalled as CAT 3... Damage Reports just coming in

[Miss Jasmine]

Well. I will update soon. IF anyone wants to see any updated track in my opinion. Told ya wilma would eventually probably look like a west coast hit. lol Anyways still not 100% where on west coast. Expecting possible north shift in models. All depends on the trough.

Matt

No one said it wouldn't be, just that it was still early and it was a disservice to people to make it sound so definite. And please let me stress do not just look at the center line, anyone in the cone NEEDS to pay attention.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

No one said it wouldn't be, just that it was still early and it was a disservice to people to make it sound so definite. And please let me stress do not just look at the center line, anyone in the cone NEEDS to pay attention.

Yea I got. I messed up that post I just posted. Sounded mean and was not ment to. Sorry about that. Anyways, do not DO NOT, DO NOT focus just on the track. Its earlier and track could still shift. Now I am not saying to the point of letting Florida get through with nothing totally but like Tampa could get it worse then current thinking. Just dont know! Either way it will have a large wind field so the whole Central part of the state and southward is going to get nasty weather. Wouldnt be suprised if Tampa schools even get off Friday depending on track. If it shifts north, Tampa could be going with mandatory evacs by then.

Matt

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Discussion:
Track still uncertain. I am thinking possible north shift in models over the next 48 hours but we will need to watch it closely. Major intensification going on. Possible CAT 4 or slim chance of cat 5 prior to landfall. The whole Florida peninsula is going to get major effects from Wilma. All the way up past Tampa will get high winds and lots of rain. Tornados risk for most of the state also. Updates will be done as often as possible now.

 

[mamalle]

thats different than what our news just said it should be a strong cat 3 or maybe a 4 when it strikes. He said it looks to be coming over the everglades or ft myers and right over us before it leaves south fla. earlier it was shown coming in and over lake okeechobee.. should be a fast moving one they said which would be nice. francis about killed me last year having to be at work for almost 3 days watching and waiting! hope this one fizzles down and doesnt cause much damage wherever it may go!

 

[zulaya]

Just curious...and not that FL is not important, but from this latest map, it appears Wilma will still be a hurricane when it emerges into the Atlantic after crossing FL.

IF that happens, isn't that part of the Atlantic much cooler now? Would Wilma dissipate? Or possible turn and head up the East Coast and hit somewhere up there?

Not wanting it to, just wondering...

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I was just on the flhurricane.com site and just read some good advice...the media is going to hype this one for Tampa since there is a bigger population there. DO NOT buy into the hype. Just keep yourself aware of the situation.

Editing to add the NHC prediction:

What Matt is posting is his modeling (I believe). This is the offical predicted track. It will update automatically.

And here is the 5 PM discussion:
an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has just made its first pass
through the center of Wilma...finding a minimum central pressure of
970 mb and maximum flight-level winds...so far...of 75 kt. A
dropsonde in the north eyewall reported surface winds of 64 kt.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt. The
advisory intensity of 70 kt is a blend of the satellite and
reconnaissance observations.
There has been no change to the thinking regarding the intensity
forecast. Wilma continues to have very strong upper-level outflow
channels to the northeast and southwest of the center. Oceanic heat
content ahead of Wilma is high...including in the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In the short term...the only inhibiting factor is the
dry air mass in the Gulf and extreme northwestern Caribbean. A high
likelihood of rapid strengthening continues to be indicated by the
SHIPS rapid intensification index. Wilma could be a major hurricane
by this time tomorrow...and reach category four strength before
entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma accelerates
northeastward in the Gulf...wind shear is forecast to increase
slightly...but at this time does not appear to be sufficient to
weaken Wilma very quickly. However...it is Worth remembering that
there is little skill in long-range intensity forecasts.

The initial motion is 290/7. There has also been no change to the
track forecast thinking. The mid- to upper-level low that had been
off the Southern California coast continues northeastward...and as
it progresses high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
weaken...allowing Wilma to move through the northwestern Caribbean
and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about three days. Once
Wilma moves north of the subtropical ridge axis and encounters
mid-level westerly flow...an acceleration northeastward is
expected. Only very modest shifts have occurred with the
tightly-clustered model guidance suite...which...at this time...is
focusing the long-term threat to the southern half of the Florida
Peninsula. The official forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.


Notice the mention of Cat. 4 status. Bleah

 

[Hootiss]

Oh great! Just what we need in Port Charlotte......................

 

[Disneyglobegirl]

Thanks for the updates Matt! We appreciate it!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

thats different than what our news just said it should be a strong cat 3 or maybe a 4 when it strikes. He said it looks to be coming over the everglades or ft myers and right over us before it leaves south fla. earlier it was shown coming in and over lake okeechobee.. should be a fast moving one they said which would be nice. francis about killed me last year having to be at work for almost 3 days watching and waiting! hope this one fizzles down and doesnt cause much damage wherever it may go!

I hear ya. I really don't want to spend my whole weekend at work, so I am hoping for a fast mover. Why do these things always come on the weekend? Why not a Tuesday? And no doubt it will be the middle of the night.

 

[Talking Hands]

Yuck, I am not liking this one at all. DH went and resupplied a few things today just in case. Shutters are already up with only a few panels to put back in. I am supposed to start sign language classes at church this week but if there are storm watches out I guess we will postpone a week.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Tampa will be hyped a tad. But the reason is Tampa is in the cone of error and should a slight shift bring it Tampa it would comeplete devestaton. Tampa is the tied with New Orleans as the worst city that would could be hit by a Hurricane because of Storm Surge. But keep in mind Tampa is deffinitely a place that could be hit and peopel just need to be aware.

Matt

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Matt, In order to be prudent, when you post your models can you please state that what you are posting is not the OFFICIAL NHC track. I am afraid it is going to lead to some confusion, especially since you are a good bit north of the official track. Thanks.

 

[lvs_eeyore]

Lovely and my windstorm and flood insurance just cancelled due to my fool mortgage broker. All I can do is pray for no damage.

 

[mamalle]

what? how did that happen? Im so sorry, isnt there anything they can do? we are pretty far inland but had talked about getting flood damage this past summer when ours was renewed but just never got around to it.. I hope we all are spared..

 

[Shutterbug]

Matt, In order to be prudent, when you post your models can you please state that what you are posting is not the OFFICIAL NHC track. I am afraid it is going to lead to some confusion, especially since you are a good bit north of the official track. Thanks.

I would also like to add on for people NOT to get focused on the track of the storm.
They need to focus on where the nhc CONE is!

Anyone in that cone needs to prepare and get ready if the time comes...not just the ones in the track of the storm.

 

[Shutterbug]

This from accuweather..

Hurricane Wilma has rapidly gained strength since being upgraded to hurricane status earlier today. The 12th hurricane of the 2005 season is now at Category 2 strength, and Accuweather.com forecasters say it will continue to intensify, gaining Category 3 strength by Wednesday morning. Taking advantage of ideal conditions for intensification, Wilma is expected to become a Category 4 storm by late Wednesday, with the potential for Category 5 strength by late Thursday.

 

[zalansky]

PLEASE don't come to Tampa! Especially not on my weekends! Why do they always come on the weekends???

 

[Shutterbug]

According to the 8pm update from the NHC, Wilma already is now a Cat 2 with maximum sustained winds of 100mph!!

 

[lvs_eeyore]

When we refinanced the house in May the broker was supposed to have the amounts taken out of closing to pay the flood and windstorm and add the windstorm and flood to our mortgage payment. He did neither so all of a sudden our insurance policies started cancelling. Now that Wilma is where she is even if we had the money to reup the insurance they wouldnt do it because of where she is headed.

 

[Aurora63]

Okay, I am not focusing on the line in the cone, but...

that line is nearly right over my home (east coast of FL!) I'm sure it will lose some strength by then, but Frances was only a Cat 2 when it hit, was not a direct hit on us anyway, and we still missed a week of school! Not looking forward to this one!