Wilma landfalled as CAT 3... Damage Reports just coming in

[chris1gill]

Big thanks to Matt for bringing this to the Dis.... it gave me a few day's notice I wouldn't have otherwise had... and, looking back, his original posting is ringing pretty true three days later

I need someone to tell me if our karate tournament at Wide World of Sports on Saturday at 10am will take place... I need someone whose a betting person... I've been told they never cancel... course I've also heard never say never....

 

[bsnyder]

Tampa will be hyped a tad. But the reason is Tampa is in the cone of error and should a slight shift bring it Tampa it would comeplete devestaton. Tampa is the tied with New Orleans as the worst city that would could be hit by a Hurricane because of Storm Surge. But keep in mind Tampa is deffinitely a place that could be hit and peopel just need to be aware.

Matt

Tampa will be hyped more than a tad. If this thing is a CAT 4 tomorrow, people will be going nuts! It's only prudent and cautious to be prepared, but we also don't need panic. Bottom line, it's still too early to tell where this thing is going. Even saying it's definitely going to be a west coast of Florida event is premature, at this point. Everyone should keep an eye out, and if you haven't already made your basic hurricane season preparations, start doing so. But it's way too early for any particular area to panic.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

They've declared this will definitely be a Florida event.

The track may not be official NHC...but it's always the unofficial ones that take note and accurately predict something that NHC didn't know what was coming.

It's all just educated guesswork anyway. (really educated--but nonetheless...very good guesses that meteologists will later use in their promo spots should they be even remotely accurate).

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I would also like to add on for people NOT to get focused on the track of the storm.
They need to focus on where the nhc CONE is!

Anyone in that cone needs to prepare and get ready if the time comes...not just the ones in the track of the storm.

Thanks for bring this up again, I mentioned this on the last page, very important to stay aware when you are in the cone of doom.

The very best site for information (besides the NHC of course) is www.flhurricane.com There are real Mets who post on there and many of the other posters are very knowledgable.

Yes Matt is keeping us informed, but keep in mind he is a teenager and still learning. He has not had any formal Met training. Just something to keep in mind as you mindfully watch the storm.

 

[Danvers]

UGH, my engagement photos are this weekend. I've already rescheduled them twice!!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Oh and blech we pulled out the Hurricane Manual at work today. OH JOY. Let the preparations begin. I may be spending the weekend at work.

 

[mamalle]

I guess we will just have to wait until the 11pm advisory to come out but our weather guy came on around 10pm and said nothing about it turning into a 4 or 5... Im confused it still looks to be coming over the state and under lake okeechobee..

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I guess we will just have to wait until the 11pm advisory to come out but our weather guy came on around 10pm and said nothing about it turning into a 4 or 5... Im confused it still looks to be coming over the state and under lake okeechobee..

The 5 PM NHC discussion mentioned the possibility of a Cat. 4. I posted it two pages earlier (on page 6).

This is going to be a fast moving hurricane. By the time the picture is clear it may be too late to make your preparations, if you are in the cone of doom, it is best that you start making your preparations now. No need to panic, but it doesn't hurt to start getting ready. Remember you can't just look at the track, look at the cone.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Right dont take my predictions as holy. lol But they are a lot more accurate then the average joe. And you have to keep in mind I am not making this by myself. This is made with all METS at Tampa Bay's 10! Dont focus on the line! Dont focus on the line. Can I make myself more clear! We are not going to have a good idea until landfall until probably thursday night or friday morning. Personally me and many other METS dont know if turn will be as sharp as model is predictings. Truthfully the NHC really doesnt know either. We are all going by the same data and some things are contradicting each other. But anyone from the Big Bend of Florida to Key West needs to be preapred for a category 3 or higher hitting there area. Just be ready, dont panic yet. Unforturnately I just got out of NHC conference and its now possibly expected to reach CAT 5 status in 36 hours or less! This is a dangerous situation unfolding. Yea I think tomorrow All of west florida will start flipping out. Gas stations and Grocery stores a mob. I hate to say it but this isnt looking good at all. Good luck everyone and updated forecast path around 11pm from me and NHC. (dont expect any major changes probably though until we get closer)

Matt

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Here is the 11:00 PM discussion from the NHC:

Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye. Reports from the Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter investigating Wilma between 19z and
23z indicated a 7-8 N mi wide eye...with the central pressure
dropping from 970 mb to 954 mb in 3 hr 14 min. The maximum
flight-level winds measured by the aircraft at 850 mb were 101 kt.
Since that time...satellite imagery shows increased organization...
with a ring of cold tops of -80c to -87c surrounding the eye.
Satellite intensity estimates are 102 kt from TAFB and SAB...and 90
kt from AFWA. Based on this and extrapolation of the last aircraft
data...the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. This may be
conservative.
The initial motion is the 12 hr motion of 285/7...although for the
past several hours the eye has been moving almost due west and
perhaps a little slower. Wilma is south of a mid/upper-level ridge
extending from northern Mexico eastward to southern Florida...and
southeast of a low-level ridge that covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Large-scale models agree that the ridges should weaken during the
next 36-48 hr as an upper-level low centered over northwestern
Arizona moves northeastward and then eastward. The ridges should
collapse completely as a deep layer trough develops over the
eastern United States after 72 hr. This combination should cause
Wilma to move generally northwestward for 48 hr or so...then turn
northward...then recurve into the westerlies after 72 hr. All
model guidance generally agrees on this scenario...although there
is some spread on the exactly where Wilma will recurve between the
left-most GFDN and right-most UKMET. The new forecast track is
adjusted somewhat to the left for the first 48 hr based on the
current position and motion...with the remainder of the forecast
track similar to the previous advisory in agreement with the model
consensus. It should be noted that the models do not completely
agree on how the eastern U. S. Trough will evolve...and these
differences could make a significant difference in what parts of
Florida Wilma will ultimately affect.

The intensity forecast has become more complicated. The current
rapid intensification and favorable environment should bring Wilma
to category four status in the next 24 hr...and it would not be a
surprise to see it reach category five before it bottoms out.
However...SSM/I data shows that the convection with the eyewall
covers a very small area...with a distinct dry moat already present
outside the eyewall. Outside of that is a broken convective band
that aircraft data shows is associated with an outer wind maximum.
Thus...it appears likely that Wilma will go through a concentric
eyewall cycle during the next 24-48 hr...and since the inner eye is
so small there could be notable weakening until the outer eyewall
contracts. Since these cycles are hard to time...the intensity
forecast will hold at 125 kt from 24-48 hr. When Wilma moves into
the Gulf of Mexico...it should encounter slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures and gradually increasing vertical shear. This
should cause a slow weakening...although it is probable that Wilma
will still be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida
Peninsula.
The NOAA g4 jet flew its first synoptic surveillance mission on
Wilma this evening...and it will be interesting to see the impact
on the 00z model runs.
Forecaster Beven

 

[mamalle]

we are already prepared as we do every year at the beginning of hurricane season. I have lived here all my life and learned its better to be safe than sorry. we are still looking at around a cat 2-3 by the time it comes over to the east coast and it looks to be shifting more south. guess it all depends on the low coming from the west to how far south its going to go. Just watch and wait is all we can do.

 

[lvs_eeyore]

To be on the safe side Im sending my dh out for bread and peanut butter tonight. Thats all we really need. If we wait until tomorrow all bread will be gone at our grocery stores. We have water and we have our generator on the ready.

 

[bsnyder]

Right dont take my predictions as holy. lol But they are a lot more accurate then the average joe. And you have to keep in mind I am not making this by myself. This is made with all METS at Tampa Bay's 10! Dont focus on the line! Dont focus on the line. Can I make myself more clear! We are not going to have a good idea until landfall until probably thursday night or friday morning. Personally me and many other METS dont know if turn will be as sharp as model is predictings. Truthfully the NHC really doesnt know either. We are all going by the same data and some things are contradicting each other. But anyone from the Big Bend of Florida to Key West needs to be preapred for a category 3 or higher hitting there area. Just be ready, dont panic yet. Unforturnately I just got out of NHC conference and its now possibly expected to reach CAT 5 status in 36 hours or less! This is a dangerous situation unfolding. Yea I think tomorrow All of west florida will start flipping out. Gas stations and Grocery stores a mob. I hate to say it but this isnt looking good at all. Good luck everyone and updated forecast path around 11pm from me and NHC. (dont expect any major changes probably though until we get closer)

Matt

The only map I see on "your" station's website is the official NHC version, not the things you've been posting on here for the last few days. What you are doing is called "wishcasting" and I think you should knock it off. You are misleading some people on here who think you really have some sort of inside scoop.

This is not a game - people need to get their information from the pros in order to be able to make plans for the safety and well-being of themselves, their families and their properties.

 

[Rozzie]

Thanks Matt, for taking the time to post. I visit several weather sites, (Underground, NOAA, etc.) and think you and your coworkers are doing a excellent job keeping up with the storm. Looking forward to your updates tomorrow!

 

[lverga]

Just subscribing to thread. We leave for Disney Sunday

 

[lovethattink]

I was just on the flhurricane.com site and just read some good advice...the media is going to hype this one for Tampa since there is a bigger population there. DO NOT buy into the hype. Just keep yourself aware of the situation.

Editing to add the NHC prediction:

What Matt is posting is his modeling (I believe). This is the offical predicted track. It will update automatically.

And here is the 5 PM discussion:
an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has just made its first pass
through the center of Wilma...finding a minimum central pressure of
970 mb and maximum flight-level winds...so far...of 75 kt. A
dropsonde in the north eyewall reported surface winds of 64 kt.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt. The
advisory intensity of 70 kt is a blend of the satellite and
reconnaissance observations.
There has been no change to the thinking regarding the intensity
forecast. Wilma continues to have very strong upper-level outflow
channels to the northeast and southwest of the center. Oceanic heat
content ahead of Wilma is high...including in the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In the short term...the only inhibiting factor is the
dry air mass in the Gulf and extreme northwestern Caribbean. A high
likelihood of rapid strengthening continues to be indicated by the
SHIPS rapid intensification index. Wilma could be a major hurricane
by this time tomorrow...and reach category four strength before
entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma accelerates
northeastward in the Gulf...wind shear is forecast to increase
slightly...but at this time does not appear to be sufficient to
weaken Wilma very quickly. However...it is Worth remembering that
there is little skill in long-range intensity forecasts.

The initial motion is 290/7. There has also been no change to the
track forecast thinking. The mid- to upper-level low that had been
off the Southern California coast continues northeastward...and as
it progresses high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
weaken...allowing Wilma to move through the northwestern Caribbean
and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about three days. Once
Wilma moves north of the subtropical ridge axis and encounters
mid-level westerly flow...an acceleration northeastward is
expected. Only very modest shifts have occurred with the
tightly-clustered model guidance suite...which...at this time...is
focusing the long-term threat to the southern half of the Florida
Peninsula. The official forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.


Notice the mention of Cat. 4 status. Bleah

Our Tampa weather station said that it all depends on how it fairs through the channel. If it stears west, then looks like Punta Gorda area, if it stears east going through the channel, then Naples. Guess we have to wait and see. Alot could happen in the next 48 hours anyway. Our weatherman thinks there will be a slight shift to the north from the model you posted.

 

[bsnyder]

Special advisory from the NHC:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190506
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Shutterbug]

From the 2am NHC update:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH

Wow!!!! From a Tropical Storm to a Cat 5 in just 24 hours!!!!!
That has got to be one of the fastest growing storms in history!
wholly crap!

 

[AdventurerKat]

We compiled our stuff at the beginning of hurricane season too but now that my BIL has been staying with us, I think we'd better add a bit more to that.

 

[Charade]

Dang!!! I leave next Tuesday morning for WDW! (keeping my fingers crossed!!!)