Will you change the way you will book future vacations?

[Joan1]

Since there is very limited availability for a lot of dates from now until mid December is anyone going to change the way they are booking future vacations?

I mean most of us always booked the room and waited for a discount and then changed the reservation to the new rate or upgraded the resort. It now seems that by doing this, and Disney thinking that they have plenty of bookings, the discounts are less. It also seems that even if a discount is available for dates the resorts and/or views are not available because the resort is almost full

What do you think? Will you continue to reserve your vacations the same way or will you wait until you know what the discounts will be?

 

[justhat]

We generally book after we have a discount of some sort, whether it be AAA, AP, or a pin code. So for us this isn't a huge change. What we will probably do more of in the future though is book through BRP. We got a great rate for Christmas this year and we almost never change anything regarding our trips so for us that will work out well.

Now, if I were going at a certain time that I knew I was not flexible about, and I wanted to stay at a certain resort regardless of price, I'd book it at any time, regardless of any discount. If I know I won't change my mind about a certain place, and I want a certain view, then I'll book further ahead to be sure I get what I want.

 

[Castillo Mom]

Funny, I was thinking about just that this morning. Last year I made a room only reservation although we ended up taking advantage of the Pay for 4/Play for 7 package last summer. This time around I'm not so sure what I'll end up doing. Most likely I'll still end up with a room only reservation at first again and then see what transpires. Unfortunately since we'll be taking a Disney cruise, our dates won't be as flexible as last time around. Possible that the best rate we'll end up with will be AAA, but I'm willing to accept that. We'll more than likely add dining because we do one sit down meal per day and with the way my boys eat, we'll come out ahead.

 

[luvmarypoppins]

Well I already have my easter 2006 plan. Try for a govt. or ap discount at the swan and book it, then wait to see if I can get a good deal at the Poly and decide from there. Disneys bottom line is making money and my bottom line these days is saving money so we will see what happens.

 

[PIRATEGIRL007]

flexiblity b/c of my job, so I will continue to book my room really far in advance and if a discount comes out call and change to that program. If there is no discount for when I am going, , but I will still go. I always budget for rack rates on room/tickets and then if we do get a discount that is more spending money for our trip or some left over to start saving for next year.

 

[skiwee1]

Not changing a thing here. I book what I plan on paying for whether I get a discount or not. A discount is a bonus for me but not a must.

 

[n2mm]

No changes for us. We always book the room we plan to stay in at rack rate. If we get a discount great, if not that's OK too. We never upgrade because of discounts--we also never buy an AP in hopes for a room discount. AP holders for 10+ years!

 

[lark]

I think the premise of the original question might not be accurate. The premise seems to be that disney has a mistaken view of how full the resorts are, and this is causing fewer discounts.

I don't think this is true at all. I think WDW has extremely sophisticated models for understanding exactly how full the resorts are and will be. I don't think they are in the business of being tricked. I think their historical data is extremely reliable and they have a very strong sense of exactly what is going on.

The calculation whether to offer a discount is a complicated one, but the core principles are straightforward. You figure out the extra overhead that each additional room adds to your costs. You also make a prediction whether you are going to fill up at non-discounted rates, using all the tools at your disposal. If you are going to have empty rooms, you'd generally sell those rooms for more than the extra overhead involved in having guests in these rooms.

There are two other principles at work: (1) other than through very limited channels, you can't go too low on price because you undercut your ability to sell non-discounted rooms in the future by lowering expectations, and (2) you also need to factor in the additional overall revenue that will be recognized by getting additional people in the door.

These things are cyclical, and my hunch -- and it's only a hunch -- is that WDW is in a state of very significant transition right now. I believe that it is taking a short term revenue loss on rooms right now -- that is, it is not offering discounts even though it knows that it could enhance revenue by doing so. For example, I think there are a number of rooms for the next several months that will go unused that could easily be filled by offering a discount. I think WDW is at sufficient capacity that the added overhead of filling these rooms would be exceeded by the room revenue plus the additional spending revenue. So why aren't they offering more codes?

I think the answer is that disney is exceptional at canibalizing the good ideas of other theme parks. Universal's FOTL really turned some heads, and I think the next decade or so at WDW is going to be significantly marked by an era of on-site guests receiving considerably greater perks than off-site guests. I also think you're going to start seeing class-related perks -- that is, guests spending more on accomodation are going to get greater perks. You're already seeing it with the 10-day extra window for dining reservations, and it's no secret that WDW is giving serious consideration to enhanced FOTL access or superduper fastpass privileges to guests of deluxe resorts (or perhaps as DVC perks or cruise perks).

The artificial inflation of hotel rates and elimination of discounts -- even if revenue reducing in the short term -- is a very natural first step for this kind of move.

Sorry for such a long winded and nerdy post; it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[sherry8253]

I have never booked until discounts were announced. I always thought it was a waste to book at rack rate in the 'hope' that a discount for that resort and type of room would become available sometime in the future. After the codes were announced, I called to see what rooms were discounted and selected something that was available.

 

[Joan1]

Lark
your post makes sense but the fact still remains that if someone booked a room, at say the Polynesian, then discounts are released and the hotel is very booked that resort doesn't come up as available with the discounted rate. As I am sure that many people will come across this on this coming discount.

 

[Bill From PA]

As long as ressies can be cancelled a few days before without penalty I'll plan our trips as always. I get the best rate I can find for an acceptable resort about 6 months out, for our March 2006 trip I got POR at the AAA rate of $148 + tax, then I look for codes daily, including the S/D Teacher's Rate although that's been rare lately, at least for a full week. I expect to either see a general public code for the Moderates in the low $100s or an AP rate for about the same, but I'm happy with the $148 if it comes to that. If I can get Swan or Dolphin for all or part of our 9 days, so much the better. FWIW, in the past I've waited for codes to come out only to have my resort of choice get filled before I could get a ressie, forcing me to 'build' a week by calling CRO again and again to add days as they became available. Never again. I'll take a bird in hand and wheel 'n deal from there.

Bill From PA

 

[snowmouse]

Not sure about the timing of my ressies, but I definitely will not buy an AP again. I know many disagree with the entire concept of the AP for discounts, so flame away if you wish. However, I have benefited tremendously in the past few years by purchasing the AP with its main purpose being resort discounts. This year I gambled and lost. I bought the AP in the spring for a couple of pre/post cruise days with the idea that I would have it for our 10 day trip in Oct., now better known as the Black Hole. I guess you live and learn, but fool me once.........

 

[CharlesTD]

Our cash reservations are always booked 12 months in advance or more if possible. Our DVC is 7 months in advance and we make PS at whatever teh window is we are able to. We don't do searches for discounts we look at the money we want to spend on a room for our non DVC weekends and pay it we usually stay at the values or at CSR for the weekends. So none of this is changing any of our booking plans or strategies. We don't buy AP's even with the genrous DVC discount you get on them. We do 2 weeks a year at Disney and buy teh new MYW 10 day hopper non expiry we use 5 days for one trip then 5 days for the next years trip. We do 5 park days and 1 or 2 waterpark days the rest of our time is spent out at the coast for day trips and shopping etc. We don't tend to venture to other parks we did do Sea World back in 03 but that is it. The AP is a great deal for a pass and if you tend to go to the park for a dinner etc then it works out great for you but we generally go to the park from open to close and that is it. The AP really is only a park pass with unlimited admission for the year and buying it for the discounts on other things that are not guarantees is silly IMHO.

 

[lark]

Lark
your post makes sense but the fact still remains that if someone booked a room, at say the Polynesian, then discounts are released and the hotel is very booked that resort doesn't come up as available with the discounted rate. As I am sure that many people will come across this on this coming discount.

That's true -- I think if it's fully booked. Even if there are only 20 rooms empty and they think they can fill them at discounted rates, they still might do it -- and economically, they should do it. There's also the phenomenon of people who have booked at one hotel who switch to others when codes come out.

I guess the short version of what I was trying to say is that WDW has clearly decided in the short run to stop the codes, even though this is sure to cost them revenue. There has to be a reason, and it's interesting to wonder what it might be. My best guess, looking at the dramatic increase in Universal attendance last year and the bookings at the Universal hotels, is that FOTL works. I don't think the disappearance of discounts will be permanent, though -- I think they'll come back in some form or fashion, but the dissincentives to getting a discount might be that you get fewer first-class type perks in the parks or world.

 

[Joan1]

Thanks to all of you for answering

I wonder if the people that are going after October 4 and before October 23, when the new discount is supposed to be good for, will still book in advance or wait next time. It seems that Disney decided that the resorts were booked enough for that time frame and offered no discounts besides the original AAA rates and anyone that is a Florida resident

 

[Lewisc]

I never booked a reservation on "spec" looking for lower rates. If the resort is empty you'll have no problem booking a discounted room and if the resort is full for your dates it's unlikely discounted rooms will be available for your dates. Having a reservation doesn't help you get a discount and in fact, slightly, reduces the chance of a discount being available for your resort and dates.

A discount has caused me to change my plans from a moderate, or off-site, to a deluxe but I don't usually book until I have a rate I'm comfortable.

Since there is very limited availability for a lot of dates from now until mid December is anyone going to change the way they are booking future vacations?

I mean most of us always booked the room and waited for a discount and then changed the reservation to the new rate or upgraded the resort. It now seems that by doing this, and Disney thinking that they have plenty of bookings, the discounts are less. It also seems that even if a discount is available for dates the resorts and/or views are not available because the resort is almost full

What do you think? Will you continue to reserve your vacations the same way or will you wait until you know what the discounts will be?

 

[justhat]

Thanks to all of you for answering

I wonder if the people that are going after October 4 and before October 23, when the new discount is supposed to be good for, will still book in advance or wait next time. It seems that Disney decided that the resorts were booked enough for that time frame and offered no discounts besides the original AAA rates and anyone that is a Florida resident

I already posted, but thought I'd add to this. We initially hadn't planned on going back to Disney till NYE, but last week my husband said "Let's got to MNSSHP!" so that's all it took for me to plan a spur of the moment trip. We were looking at either 10/14-10/16 or 10/28-10/30 and called to get the AAA rate for those dates. We booked a AAA rate at Pop but then found better airfare for this weekend (9/30-10/2) so we called back and changed from AAA at Pop to POFQ. We had the AP rate for that weekend at first, but decided to hold onto our AP vouchers till Christmas so we switched to AAA rate. The lack of AP rates available for our original dates in October, however, really didn't affect our decision about the trip, nor did it influence where we'll be staying. I thought there were often 'black hole' periods in the discounts so I didn't think much of October not having AP rates (either call-in or BR).

 

[DisneyPhD]

We are DVC members, but we only have 170 points, and have been going to WDW a lot in the past few years. (we bought enough for one trip a year, and ended up going a few times a year since then.) Because of this we are in a constant state of borrowing points.

We got a good pin deal last May 2005 and used that (77 a night at PORS) and were looking for the same sort of thing for this Jan 06. (3rd and last trip on this AP.) The deals weren't good enough for me. So we gave up looking and borrowed points and booked at SSR.

So yes, it did change the way we booked at least this time. It might not in the futrue. So happy we have DVC. Maybe it will turn more people towards it and that is what WDW is hoping for.

 

[CharlesTD]

We are DVC members, but we only have 170 points, and have been going to WDW a lot in the past few years. (we bought enough for one trip a year, and ended up going a few times a year since then.) Because of this we are in a constant state of borrowing points.

We got a good pin deal last May 2005 and used that (77 a night at PORS) and were looking for the same sort of thing for this Jan 06. (3rd and last trip on this AP.) The deals weren't good enough for me. So we gave up looking and borrowed points and booked at SSR.

So yes, it did change the way we booked at least this time. It might not in the futrue. So happy we have DVC. Maybe it will turn more people towards it and that is what WDW is hoping for.

I know how you feel DVC was by far the best money we have spent at WDW we started with 150 points we are now at 400.

 

[DisneyPhD]

I know how you feel DVC was by far the best money we have spent at WDW we started with 150 points we are now at 400.

We really want an add on, but instead we got an add on to our family, an add on to house and a new mini van. Oh well in a few years I gues (DH keeps hoping the resale price will go down, hasn't yet.) Somewhere between 200 to under 300 would be good for us.