Than this virus must be so much more contagious than the flu, because way more people are dying from covid19 than the flu here. Funeral homes can’t handle the load.
The current estimates (which seem to change about every week or so) put it at twice as contagious as flu. But the other problem is that funeral homes and even morgues are running on lower-than-usual staffing because of people who are quarantined with the virus or who have been deemed non-essential for their own protection, so a system that usually runs on just-in-time principles with as close to exactly enough capacity for average conditions is running at lower than usual capacity under higher than usual demand.
Anecdotally, my brother died at the peak of the opioid epidemic in our area, and even that was enough to put a strain on the system. We encountered what I could only describe as bottlenecks at several points in the process, including autopsy capacity and finding a funeral home. And that was not nearly as big an increase in deaths per day as this has produced.
Georgia is looking for this Friday at opening up, among businesses,
hair and nail salons, barbers, spas, tattoo parlors, body art studios,
as long as social distancing is maintained. Hmmm, sounds tough to me.

How does that work?
I think the idea is that these are businesses that can very easily limit their number of customers in the store at any one time - my tattoo artist, for example, operates by appointment only and usually the artist and customer are the only people in the room (with one other employee at the front desk for check-ins). So with masks, it can be managed with little risk. Same with salons - if stylists each take a day, rather than working side-by-side, and schedule their day to see one customer at a time, they're pretty low risk situations. Certainly less risk than, say, reopening a factory where 300 people work side-by-side with no protective measures.
This was an issue as we were shutting down. A lot of non-essential employees stopped gong to work. And states are totally overwhelmed with respect to processing unemployment claims. I read that Florida has processed 6% so far. And with tourism as such a huge industry there, residents are going to be in big trouble soon. Many will have no job to even go back to whenever they do open it all up and with unemployment checks far off....it's going to be very hard on families.
Yep. One of my boys got called back to work starting today (in violation of the governor's order, most likely, but many auto parts factories are ramping up because the Big 3 are supposed to be going back to work May 4 and so they need to be up and running for that to happen). His employment took three weeks to process, and while he'll get the back checks for those weeks, he was off work a full month without a dime of income. He's relieved to be going back rather than sitting around waiting (and borrowing money from DS22 fo get by) until unemployment payments actually start coming.
Yes, this virus will spread to every part of this country. Will it be as bad everywhere as it is right now here in the NYC Metro area, likely not. Our population density is much higher than a lot of the country. But, there are stories from all over the country where there were outbreaks before the lockdowns started. One that comes to mind is Albany, Georgia. There was a funeral there and a lot of people who attended that funeral got the virus. I believe one person at least died. The problem for people living in very rural areas is the lack of hospitals and staff equipped to deal with a critically ill COVID-19 patient.
And population density appears to play a huge role in transmission. Larger than is intuitive, IMO, but I'll freely admit to not being a science person and not having seen any studies yet on the issue so maybe there's an angle I'm missing. My county is largely rural but close enough to Detroit to count as part of the metro area. We share a long border with one of the hardest-hit counties in the state, and most people in the southern part of my county shop, work or both across that line (myself, my husband and one of my boys among them). But to look at the relative case rates, you'd think there was a wall along that border. My county (average population density 226 people per sq. mile) has 252 cases and 11 deaths, about half of those in a particular nursing home. The county where I grocery shop (average population density 1819 ppl per sq. mile) has 4,425 cases and 440 deaths.
People around here have been waiting for the other shoe to drop, so to speak, figuring that with so many people here being essential workers in that county, our closest major grocery being there, most everyone having family there, it would only be a matter of time until the virus started spreading rapidly here... but for whatever reason, that doesn't appear to be happening. Pretty much every community in the county has a handful of cases but no major clusters, hospitals have enough free beds that they were accepting patients from Detroit-area hospital systems when they were at/near capacity, and we've been sitting for weeks on the edge of a hotspot and only seeing a sprinkling of cases at a time (I think our daily peak was 22; now it is in the single digits).
People just have to look back to the 1918 pandemic where the people pushed the government to re-open (sound familiar) and when they re-opened (to early) the 2nd wave of illnesses was far worst than the 1st.
This isn't quite right. It was during the second wave that the push to reopen came and prompted a second spike within that wave. The first wave came early in 1918, was relatively limited in scope and scale and faded away with warmer weather. The anecdote about Philly and the parade took place fairly early in the second wave, which came in the fall when flu season normally starts. It also coincided with the mass movement of people as soldiers returned from war, which likely seeded the virus far more widely than during the first wave (hence the more severe second wave). Some cities handled it better than others, but the second wave was the most severe of the three even in those places with the most aggressive preventative strategies.
The model with no quarantine that was the basis of the call between Trump and Boris Johnson was 2.2 million or .7% of the US population.
With quarantine it was 100,000-200,000.
But that generation of that model also used a very high CFR compared to what the data collected since then supports. They assumed 30% of cases would need critical care and that half of those would die - data that was derived largely from Italy at the peak of their outbreak. The actual numbers that we're seeing now are far lower on both counts. Countries with the most aggressive testing programs are putting the rate around .5%, and preliminary antibody studies suggest it may be lower still.