Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[cobright]

but it is also an overreaction to falling numbers to think we can get rid of all of them just because we're past peak, if that makes any sense.

I've seen this compared to cases where people stop taking their meds as soon as they start feeling better. Or cutting loose their parachute as soon as their vertical decent speed slows down to a survivable number.

I have looked at the risks for me and my family and believe the benefit outweighs the risk of not having quarantine but I 100% support anyone that believes otherwise and chooses to self isolate. My families choice does not impact anyone that chooses to effectively self isolate.

But it does impact those who cannot choose to self-isolate. Is your short term comfort worth their lives?

Children have zero fatality risk from this virus and are forced to stay inside and it impacts their education for no good reason.

Where are you getting this? They are absolutely at much less risk of contracting and dying from this but with only reporting for 15k total deaths in, the CDC already reports a little more than a half dozen deaths younger than 18. That's just the US. Belgium and England both have pediatric Covid fatalities.

It's a very small risk, but not zero. And... they can still spread it to others.

My children and myself cannot impact anyone that chooses to effectively self isolate.

And all those other people out there who can't choose to self-isolate? Just... what... sucks to be them so long as you're alright? As long as you don't have to stop doing the things you like to do?

 

[DeniseJH]

All those people are exposed just the same during the stay at home

You think that someone who stays at home has the same risk as someone who has contact with an infected person? I'm out - you can only take so much of this crap in one day.

 

[pahoben]

The poster you're referring to has made the decision to take that risk. It's a calculated risk that she is making for herself and her children. Apparently her extended family has made the decision as well. If I was guaranteed to get the asymptomatic version of the virus, or even a mild case that I could ride out at home, I'd take that risk as well.

But you know, this is a novel coronavirus. And so far, from what I can see, here in the States we're not off to the best start overall with respect to handling the first pandemic in over 100 years. We still don't have enough PPE. The first batch of test kits out of the CDC were contaminated. Doctors are still learning new things about this virus everyday with respect to treatment. There's disagreement on how to treat the critically ill. We don't have an FDA approved drug to specifically treat the virus.

I'd like for there to be a lot more knowledge about how this virus is behaves. I'd like for healthcare workers to get a lot more time under their belts dealing with the virus. I'd also like to not have to treat me unnecessarily when I can stay home for the most part. Someone else deserves that bed. I'm not an essential worker. I'd also like for there to be more tested therapies and medications available. When more of that comes on line, then we'll think about mixing freely in society.

As adults we know there are few guarantees in life. Life is one decision after another in regards to risk because none of us can be certain about the future. I am satisfied with my extrapolations to date about medical risks and financial risks etc. I have no reason to doubt that my evaluation of the risks associated with this virus are in error but they still could be since there are never any guarantees.

 

[xuxa777]

I've seen this compared to cases where people stop taking their meds as soon as they start feeling better. Or cutting loose their parachute as soon as their vertical decent speed slows down to a survivable number.


But it does impact those who cannot choose to self-isolate. Is your short term comfort worth their lives?


Where are you getting this? They are absolutely at much less risk of contracting and dying from this but with only reporting for 15k total deaths in, the CDC already reports a little more than a half dozen deaths younger than 18. That's just the US. Belgium and England both have pediatric Covid fatalities.

It's a very small risk, but not zero. And... they can still spread it to others.


And all those other people out there who can't choose to self-isolate? Just... what... sucks to be them so long as you're alright? As long as you don't have to stop doing the things you like to do?

Who that is high risk that can't self isolate, yes someone that has to work that cant work from home I get, but if their employer won't work with them in these time might be time to get another job.

Children tragically die in the US at a much higher rate from many other things. It will never be zero

Sadly yes it sucks to be high risk, can't debate that.

 

[xuxa777]

You think that someone who stays at home has the same risk as someone who has contact with an infected person? I'm out - you can only take so much of this crap in one day.

You stated concerns doctors, nurses and grocery stores can't isolate (they aren't staying at home, as they are essential) and will be exposed when the stay at home is lifted, I am saying they already are being exposed now during the stay at home.

 

[SaintsManiac]

You think that someone who stays at home has the same risk as someone who has contact with an infected person? I'm out - you can only take so much of this crap in one day.

Highly recommend the ignore function. It has saved my sanity.

 

[cobright]

Despite that, infection and death rates are higher than in neighboring Scandinavian countries. Swedes have perhaps the best healthcare system in the world. They have an extremely high proportion of single person households as well as a very high work from home rate, each of which significantly limits disease spread.

What happened is...

1. like many countries early on, Sweden rolled its eyes at the Pandemic.
2. Then the pandemic exploded in places like Spain and Italy
3. but Sweden and Britain decide it's better to not lock things down.
4. Britain learns what a catastrophy that is but
5. Sweden doesn't see a huge number of cases so they conclude that they're approach is the right one.

What Sweden doesn't realize is that while it is a lovely country, the number of foreign visitors to Sweden pales in insignificance compared to Spain, Italy, England, and ... well most of Europe. Foreign tourism makes up less than 1% of their GDP, a pittance compared to other nearby states. Add to that, unlike Italy, Spain, France, and Germany (among most others) Sweden has fewer and much less busy land borders. It's isolated by water. It does not have much of its population on the border with other countries.

Sweden sees the rest of Europe explode with this and figures it's not happening there because of their brilliant governance. So, like the US, they squander their advantage of time and end up doing much less than they could to limit the disease there. Their death toll per 1M pop speaks for itself.

Children die under horrible circumstances every day and the risk of a child fatality from this virus is incredibly low compared to other causes of death.

Right. And the risk of sending a 5 year old out to play with a gun is actually pretty minimal to the child and in real terms actually pretty low for the rest of the community, but it's still a risk that's easily avoided.

In Sweden school continues without interruption for elementary and for kindergarten. Maybe there is some difference between Sweden and the US that makes it impossible in the US which is really kind of sad.

Part of the stated goal of permitting children to return to school was provide childcare so adults could return to work or work from home uninterrupted.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

[/QUOTE]

You stated concerns doctors, nurses and grocery stores can't isolate and will be exposed when the stay at home is lifted, I am saying they already are being exposed now during the stay at home.

Yes but the first responders are maxed out now. At our facility we are taking non ER people and putting them in the ER some by volunteer and some mandating the changes when needed. So those people right ther are now in a very dangerous situation when they normally would not. On top of that there ability and limits are being tapped to the extremes, if there was no quarantines you would have had Italy here in NY. It was very close. That said these Docs and nurses are rushing because there are so many sick and yes that constant jumping from case to case increases there chance of contracting the condition themseleves without a doubt. Same with groceries workers, less people on street and less people in stores means carts can be cleaned and there is less likely a chance someone who is sick is leaving germs on things simply because there are less germs left on things in general.

 

[cobright]

Who that is high risk that can't self isolate, yes someone that has to work that cant work from home I get, but if their employer won't work with them in these time might be time to get another job.

Do you suppose that a lot of cashiers, Amazon drivers, or InstaCart shoppers are in a position to just quit and take a job that lets them work from home instead? That there's a market for work-from-home EMTs and Firemen?

There isn't. They count on the rest of us behaving as if we were part of a society.

 

[xuxa777]

Yes but the first responders are maxed out now. At our facility we are taking non ER people and putting them in the ER some by volunteer and some mandating the changes when needed. So those people right ther are now in a very dangerous situation when they normally would not. On top of that there ability and limits are being tapped to the extremes, if there was no quarantines you would have had Italy here in NY. It was very close. That said these Docs and nurses are rushing because there are so many sick and yes that constant jumping from case to case increases there chance of contracting the condition themseleves without a doubt. Same with groceries workers, less people on street and less people in stores means carts can be cleaned and there is less likely a chance someone who is sick is leaving germs on things.

Totally agree with you. In a hotspot like NYC everything needed to be done.

 

[pahoben]

What happened is...

1. like many countries early on, Sweden rolled its eyes at the Pandemic.
2. Then the pandemic exploded in places like Spain and Italy
3. but Sweden and Britain decide it's better to not lock things down.
4. Britain learns what a catastrophy that is but
5. Sweden doesn't see a huge number of cases so they conclude that they're approach is the right one.

What Sweden doesn't realize is that while it is a lovely country, the number of foreign visitors to Sweden pales in insignificance compared to Spain, Italy, England, and ... well most of Europe. Foreign tourism makes up less than 1% of their GDP, a pittance compared to other nearby states. Add to that, unlike Italy, Spain, France, and Germany (among most others) Sweden has fewer and much less busy land borders. It's isolated by water. It does not have much of its population on the border with other countries.

Sweden sees the rest of Europe explode with this and figures it's not happening there because of their brilliant governance. So, like the US, they squander their advantage of time and end up doing much less than they could to limit the disease there. Their death toll per 1M pop speaks for itself.


Right. And the risk of sending a 5 year old out to play with a gun is actually pretty minimal to the child and in real terms actually pretty low for the rest of the community, but it's still a risk that's easily avoided.


Part of the stated goal of permitting children to return to school was provide childcare so adults could return to work or work from home uninterrupted.

The fatality rate from this virus in Sweden as of yesterday is .015% while the US as of yesterday was .011%. Both these numbers are way way way below the model forecasts of fatalities that kicked this off. Sad to think that people are so invested in this quarantine that they consider the results in Sweden to be catastrophic but there you have it.

if you consider the general quarantine in the US to be analogous to not allowing a child to play with a gun then I am speechless.

 

[xuxa777]

Do you suppose that a lot of cashiers, Amazon drivers, or InstaCart shoppers are in a position to just quit and take a job that lets them work from home instead? That there's a market for work-from-home EMTs and Firemen?

There isn't. They count on the rest of us behaving as if we were part of a society.

If they are high-risk individuals, immune-compromised, elderly probably not the best job to take right now, but people can take their own risk. Wish that wasn't true but that is the reality now.

 

[gotomu212]

The fatality rate from this virus in Sweden as of yesterday is .015% while the US as of yesterday was .011%. Both these numbers are way way way below the model forecasts of fatalities that kicked this off. Sad to think that people are so invested in this quarantine that they consider the results in Sweden to be catastrophic but there you have it.

if you consider the general quarantine in the US to be analogous to a child not being allowed to play with a gun then I am speechless.

You did your math wrong. Sweden (1588 deaths divided by 14,777) is .107 That’s 10.7% not .11%. It’s a factor 10 times greater. Maybe that misunderstanding is why you are under reacting to this?

 

[Jennasis]

It's getting quieter on these boards by the minute.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

The fatality rate from this virus in Sweden as of yesterday is .015% while the US as of yesterday was .011%. Both these numbers are way way way below the model forecasts of fatalities that kicked this off. Sad to think that people are so invested in this quarantine that they consider the results in Sweden to be catastrophic but there you have it.

if you consider the general quarantine in the US to be analogous to a child not being allowed to play with a gun then I am speechless.

I'm confused wouldn't .015% with 42,000 mean roughly 28,000,000 positive cases in US? Do you mean 1.5% which would still be 2.8Mil cases.

 

[pahoben]

You did your math wrong. Sweden (1588 deaths divided by 14,777) is .107 That’s 10.7% not .11%. It’s a factor 10 times greater. Maybe that misunderstanding is why you are under reacting to this?

The model forecasts were based on total population and the population of Sweden is 10,000,000. These percentages are based on total population of Sweden and the US.

 

[Heather07438]

This was a good over view the BBC offered about death rate comparisons
https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014
The numbers themselves are not accurate for comparison, just a tool to gauge growth or reduction at this point.

I think we also need a good definition of who the vulnerable are.

 

[pahoben]

This was a good over view the BBC offered about death rate comparisons
https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014
The numbers themselves are not accurate for comparison, just a tool to gauge growth or reduction at this point.

I think we also need a good definition of who the vulnerable are.

Thank you for this. I used total populations as did the fatality forecasts from the models so it eliminates much of the uncertainty discussed in your linked article.

 

[gotomu212]

delete

The model forecasts were based on total population and the population of Sweden is 10,000,000. These percentages are based on total population of Sweden and the US.

a) Then you're talking mortality rate and not fatality rate.

b) The model the US gov was using was 100,000 dead by August and we are at 42k today. So we don’t know where we’ll be in August, especially as the model assumed sheltering in place until June.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

The number of medical professionals that have died from covid-19 gives me pause. Despit

The fatality rate from this virus in Sweden as of yesterday is .015% while the US as of yesterday was .011%. Both these numbers are way way way below the model forecasts of fatalities that kicked this off. Sad to think that people are so invested in this quarantine that they consider the results in Sweden to be catastrophic but there you have it.

if you consider the general quarantine in the US to be analogous to not allowing a child to play with a gun then I am speechless.

Fatality rate is meaningless for a novel virus that is 2 months into its spread. Case fatality rate gives the better picture, it is also volatile since this is early days, but less so than fatality (really, mortality) rate.