Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[elle21]

The way he offered his opinion bothered me. If he's a professor you'd think he'd be able to theoritically answer some of his own questions better.

Then you can research him and take it up with him. I’m sending you his name in a message.
I thought his opinion had a lot of valid points and ideas to think through. Obviously, since I shared it.

 

[Heather07438]

Then you can research him and take it up with him. I’m sending you his name in a message.
I thought his opinion had a lot of valid points and ideas to think through. Obviously, since I shared it.

Thanks for his name. I doubt he's willing to answer questions but I'll give it a try.

 

[elle21]

Thanks for his name. I doubt he's willing to answer questions but I'll give it a try.

Who knows. It appears he’s written books and many articles so maybe he’d like to discuss his viewpoints with you. Are you an economist or scientist?

 

[hopemax]

For people who think the US will have a bad second wave of this virus, do you think we will only get a second wave AFTER China and Europe get a second wave first? Is it possible for those countries who experienced the pandemic first to not have a second wave and is it still possible for the US have one (a second wave)?

I think we will get a second wave based upon what happens within the United States. I expect the first wave to continue it's spread into the rural areas. Those rural areas to be less successful at smashing transmission chains for various reasons. Pressures to re-open will be too great for the metro areas to sustain. So they will loosen their restrictions, just about the same time the virus double-backs out of the rural communities back into the population centers, and less resolve to go back to this. Then it spreads again, like it did the first time, metro areas, then back to rural. Drop a ball into a bathtub, the wave radiates outward, then hits the wall, and bounces back, then keeps bouncing back and forth. That kind of thing.

Asia is kind of experiencing that now. It left China, went to the rich countries in Europe, and now it's doubling back through the poorer countries, and back into the countries that had the original outbreaks like Singapore and South Korea. China, who knows. Europe, I think will have a 2nd wave after the US due to the increased severity and duration of their first wave and how seriously they will take this next phase, because of their failures with the first wave. The strength of their 2nd wave will depend on their continued resolve. Which isn't a given.

 

[Notrealname]

I’d also love to share the mini documentary of the farmer (friend of a friend. Not sure if you will believe me or find that credible) and his warning that our food supply will be cut off if something doesn’t change soon. The farmers are about to go out of business.

All you need to do to share it is post the link.

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

They're the ones that got the national attention, but I wouldn't call them representative of anything. I know a fair number of people who took part in the protests (but didn't get their pictures in the news because they followed the organizers' plan of "stay in your car, maintain safe distance") and none fit that description. They're just small town small business owners and employees who object to their livelihoods being erased for dubious benefit. And if you ask them, the protest was successful - the governor relaxed the parts of the order they had the biggest problems with. Because they weren't protesting *all* social distancing, just asking for small businesses to get the same options being offered to bigger businesses and for lower-risk activities like lawn care to be allowed to continue.

The revised order has been cause for a LOT of celebration in my circles. The one and only thing I've heard ongoing complaints about is the fact that non-essential medical is still mostly closed. I really hope that changes soon because our medical systems are sinking and a lot of people are going without care that might not be essential to keep them alive this month or this year but the lack of which is definitely creating bigger problems and longer-term risks.



I've been thinking about that a lot since this thing started. About all of the misinformation and fear of the early years of the AIDS epidemic, people being afraid of catching it from a public restroom or thinking their kids weren't safe in a classroom with an HIV positive child. I think social media has taken all of the fear that comes from the early uncertainty about a new disease and made it a million times worse.



I'm not sure where that flyer is from, but the date is wrong for the Michigan protests. They were the 15th.



Most of the participants in the protest did social distance. They called it "operation gridlock" for a reason - they were never meant to get out of the car. I know some heavily armed blowhards did, but they weren't at all representative of the participants as a whole.

And both the local police/fire departments and the hospital made statements that the protest in no way interfered with normal operations. So maybe you ought to take your own advice and diversify your reading, because the whole "they interfered with a hospital" was a social media invention. And I've been really disappointed by some of the people spreading it, because many of us took part in another major protest/rally a couple Januarys ago that blocked that same road... and caught flack from people opposed to our "cause" because of it. So at least some of the people I saw spreading that line absolutely should have known better but shared it anyway.

I suggest you count your lucky stars that you aren’t currently healthy and ignorant of what the reality of this disease is. Those of us still going to work would appreciate you nor risking other people’s lives because you either need to get out of the house or are manipulated by phony news.

 

[fatmanatee]

For people who think the US will have a bad second wave of this virus, do you think we will only get a second wave AFTER China and Europe get a second wave first? Is it possible for those countries who experienced the pandemic first to not have a second wave but the US still get one?

Depends on how they handle reopening. I haven’t heard much about where Italy is at in terms of recovery but seeing the initial spike over there made me take this seriously and I would probably watch how they handle things bc they’re ahead of us. As for China I don’t know what to make of their situation, I don’t trust that we’re getting the whole story and we have plenty of other countries and policy ideas to guide our response.

FWIW I see South Korea as the gold standard for responding to this but I’ve given up hope on us doing what they’re doing.

 

[sam_gordon]

I just want to point out that even if we get a "second wave" (and I do expect us to), there's nothing that says it must be worse (or even equal) to the first wave. Maybe I'm just an optimist, although that's getting harder and harder as this goes on.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Greece has to be looked at as well. What are they doing, is it climate, they aren't they next to Turkey who is about to either be in huge trouble if not already. Plus 40% of adult population in Greece smokes surprised they have so few fatalities. Climate is probabbly part of it.

 

[mjkacmom]

Greece has to be looked at as well. What are they doing, is it climate, they aren't they next to Turkey who is about to either be in huge trouble if not already. Plus 40% of adult population in Greece smokes surprised they have so few fatalities. Climate is probabbly part of it.

Their diet is pretty healthy though, less hbp, obesity and diabetes.

 

[moericus]

I'm embarrassed our country did this to ourselves based on no accurate information from China.

I'm embarrassed our kids (practically immune by anyone's account) lost every event they looked forward to this spring with little league, dance recitals, tournaments, graduations, etc...

I'm embarrassed the leaders of the Governor's Association destroyed what's left of small businesses and privately owned restaurants.

I'm embarrassed students lost a year of quality education.

I'm embarrassed people don't know how many people die annually from the flu and are using very low numbers of coronavirus deaths to warrant all of this.

And most of all I'm embarrassed that daring to question our self-imposed economic and social destruction is viewed as crazy.

 

[NYCgrrl]

I'm embarrassed our country did this to ourselves based on no accurate information from China.

I'm embarrassed our kids (practically immune by anyone's account) lost every event they looked forward to this spring with little league, dance recitals, tournaments, graduations, etc...

I'm embarrassed the leaders of the Governor's Association destroyed what's left of small businesses and privately owned restaurants.

I'm embarrassed students lost a year of quality education.

I'm embarrassed people don't know how many people die annually from the flu and are using very low numbers of coronavirus deaths to warrant all of this.

And most of all I'm embarrassed that daring to question our self-imposed economic and social destruction is viewed as crazy.

I'm embarrassed that you are embarrassed.

 

[rjb123]

I strongly suspect that this has been in our population, spreading and killing through the typical flu season. My friend (also a RN) in the infection control RN at a facility in our area (large metro area with major international airport). They currently have zero cases at her facility. She said that their flu/ pneumonia season was significantly worse this year with her facility of 50 ish residents 10 of them getting pneumonia along with several young healthy staff members. 2-3 deaths. That is around 50% higher than normal for them. In my general group of associations, I know of MANY healthy athletic young kids/ teens/ adults who contracted pneumonia in the winter or early spring. I can't think of another year where I have heard of this. EVER. In our area they don't do flu tests- they just use symptoms to diagnose. They only check for strep and then diagnose flu based on symptoms if strep is negative. So again, super easy for COVID to be spreading around with no one aware. My other friend (RN) worked the COVID tent yesterday at the largest hospital in our large city. She worked it for six hours and saw 2 people. TWO. She only worked six hours because her hours were cut. She said also flu and pneumonias were far worse than usual this year- all ages. Now since lock down it is settling down rapidly. She was slammed until around 10 days after lock down (works in the ER). Again, more evidence that this has been COVID spread for a LONG time. I am very curious to see numbers for antibody screen in our area.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

I'm embraced by the fact that people care about working.
I'm embraced by the fact that people believe in their country enough to feel that they can wave their opinion in protest.
I'm embraced by the fact that first responders have worked so hard and so long at such great risk to save the lives of so many.
I'm embraced at the fact that people could care so much about loved ones and others that they are willing to stay locked for as long as it takes.

I am embarrassed that people refuse to do their best to understand each other, rather than endlessly trying to prove their point and therefore the others is wrong.
I'm also embarrassed that my spelling and grammar is so bad, but that's probably not relevant here.

 

[hopemax]

I strongly suspect that this has been in our population, spreading and killing through the typical flu season. My friend (also a RN) in the infection control RN at a facility in our area (large metro area with major international airport). They currently have zero cases at her facility. She said that their flu/ pneumonia season was significantly worse this year with her facility of 50 ish residents 10 of them getting pneumonia along with several young healthy staff members. 2-3 deaths. That is around 50% higher than normal for them. In my general group of associations, I know of MANY healthy athletic young kids/ teens/ adults who contracted pneumonia in the winter or early spring. I can't think of another year where I have heard of this. EVER. In our area they don't do flu tests- they just use symptoms to diagnose. They only check for strep and then diagnose flu based on symptoms if strep is negative. So again, super easy for COVID to be spreading around with no one aware. My other friend (RN) worked the COVID tent yesterday at the largest hospital in our large city. She worked it for six hours and saw 2 people. TWO. She only worked six hours because her hours were cut. She said also flu and pneumonias were far worse than usual this year- all ages. Now since lock down it is settling down rapidly. She was slammed until around 10 days after lock down (works in the ER). Again, more evidence that this has been COVID spread for a LONG time. I am very curious to see numbers for antibody screen in our area.

It would be a comforting thought, if people were sick earlier. However, I have yet to see anyone present any genetic evidence that what people were sick with was this. In addition to all the gene sequencing that has been done which point to a Jan-February arrival... Stanford has been on the leading edge, and developed one of the first test to diagnose the virus. But it wasn't their first exposure with COVID-19. Like the Seattle Flu study, which used previously collected samples to test for the virus, which led to the discovery of 1 person, Stanford tested the samples that came through Jan-February. They found 2.

http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-ne...d-samples-to-track-early-spread-of-virus.html
"Prior to launching the clinical test, Pinsky and his colleagues tested samples collected from the back of the throat or lung airways of 2,888 people who sought care at Stanford Health Care between Jan. 1 and Feb. 26 for respiratory symptoms but who had tested negative for common respiratory viruses. They combined the samples in groups of nine or 10, then tested the pooled samples for the presence of SARS-CoV-2.

Of the 292 groups of pooled samples, only two were positive. Further analysis showed that two people, one in each positive group, were infected with SARS-CoV-2.

“I was a little surprised the prevalence was so low, but it was consistent with what our public health officials in California were observing through normal surveillance methods,” Pinsky said. “Our positives came about the same time that they were identifying an uptick in COVID-19 diagnoses.” The Bay Area’s first COVID-19 diagnosis was made in early February."

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I just want to point out that even if we get a "second wave" (and I do expect us to), there's nothing that says it must be worse (or even equal) to the first wave. Maybe I'm just an optimist, although that's getting harder and harder as this goes on.

I agree - if we can keep the NY Metro area from having a huge second wave the the US numbers will likely look much better.

 

[sam_gordon]

I strongly suspect that this has been in our population, spreading and killing through the typical flu season. My friend (also a RN) in the infection control RN at a facility in our area (large metro area with major international airport). They currently have zero cases at her facility. She said that their flu/ pneumonia season was significantly worse this year with her facility of 50 ish residents 10 of them getting pneumonia along with several young healthy staff members. 2-3 deaths. That is around 50% higher than normal for them. In my general group of associations, I know of MANY healthy athletic young kids/ teens/ adults who contracted pneumonia in the winter or early spring. I can't think of another year where I have heard of this. EVER. In our area they don't do flu tests- they just use symptoms to diagnose. They only check for strep and then diagnose flu based on symptoms if strep is negative. So again, super easy for COVID to be spreading around with no one aware. My other friend (RN) worked the COVID tent yesterday at the largest hospital in our large city. She worked it for six hours and saw 2 people. TWO. She only worked six hours because her hours were cut. She said also flu and pneumonias were far worse than usual this year- all ages. Now since lock down it is settling down rapidly. She was slammed until around 10 days after lock down (works in the ER). Again, more evidence that this has been COVID spread for a LONG time. I am very curious to see numbers for antibody screen in our area.

What evidence? You even say that in your area, they don't test for flu. So there's ZERO evidence that anyone had the flu and ZERO evidence that anyone had COVID. Saying "You don't have strep but you have flu symptoms so you must have the flu" is not evidence. To me, it sounds like poor medicine honestly.

Do I think COVID has been around longer than we think? Maybe. I hope so. But there's limited evidence at this point that that's true.

 

[Wubar]

I am embarrassed that people refuse to do their best to understand each other, rather than endlessly trying to prove their point and therefore the others is wrong.

You mean 50 pages worth? LOL...

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

You mean 50 pages worth? LOL...

Phew,, when you started talking about 50 pages of stuff, I figured you were referering to my spelling

 

[bcla]

I agree - if we can keep the NY Metro area from having a huge second wave the the US numbers will likely look much better.

They had all the ingredients for the perfect storm. Some of the highest population density in the United States. They get an inordinate amount of international travel. Governor Cuomo mentioned that testing seems to show mostly infection via travelers from Europe, but also some from China since NYC has the largest Chinese-American community in the US. If there is a second wave, hopefully it's much slower since people are social distancing and wearing masks.

I don't know if the conditions can necessarily be replicated. A lot of transmission was a result of travel for Chinese New Year. And people are a lot of more cognizant of the conditions. Still - I've noticed that some people still don't seem to care - especially kids.