Will the expansion pad next to Aulani ever be used?

You're misunderstanding the business strategy behind Aulani.

The purpose of Aulani wasn't to sell Aulani.

The purpose of Aulani was to sell Copper Creek and VGF and Polynesian and Riviera and VDH and Fort Wilderness Cabins and every future DVC resort.

Go walk around the parks and look at the sales brochures on display at any of the DVC kiosks. 9 times out of 10, they'll be open to the pages for Aulani, Animal Kingdom Lodge, or Disney Cruise Line, because those are the most spectacular and eye-catching experiences in the portfolio. "Buy where you want to stay" is a unique phenomenon to the resale community and super well-informed message board posters. Most people don't buy DVC for their home resort, they buy DVC for access to the DVC portfolio. Their home resort is more of an afterthought. Aulani is a big, sexy, aspirational jewel for the sales agents to pitch to prospective buyers even if the buyers aren't interested in owning an Aulani contract.

Mom really wants to buy DVC but Dad isn't convinced. "I don't know... do you really think we're going to want to go to Disney World every year for the next 45 years?" he asks. Mom reminds him of what the sales agent said, "we wouldn't have to! We can bank and borrow points to do a 2-bedroom Ocean View Villa at Aulani when the kids are a little older [or go on a cruise, or ABD, or transfer to various international properties through Interval, etc.)"
So true, you see the DVC sales booth and most feature a picture of Aulani. The lot next to Aulani has been open for a long time. 5 star hotels are just not overally profitable, in fact they seem to change hands all the time. Very high overhead. Most of the Hawaii 5 stars are over 30 years old. What does seem to work is the time share, or condo. If it does get built out I would expect it to go that way
 
You're misunderstanding the business strategy behind Aulani.

The purpose of Aulani wasn't to sell Aulani.

The purpose of Aulani was to sell Copper Creek and VGF and Polynesian and Riviera and VDH and Fort Wilderness Cabins and every future DVC resort.

Go walk around the parks and look at the sales brochures on display at any of the DVC kiosks. 9 times out of 10, they'll be open to the pages for Aulani, Animal Kingdom Lodge, or Disney Cruise Line, because those are the most spectacular and eye-catching experiences in the portfolio. "Buy where you want to stay" is a unique phenomenon to the resale community and super well-informed message board posters. Most people don't buy DVC for their home resort, they buy DVC for access to the DVC portfolio. Their home resort is more of an afterthought. Aulani is a big, sexy, aspirational jewel for the sales agents to pitch to prospective buyers even if the buyers aren't interested in owning an Aulani contract.

Mom really wants to buy DVC but Dad isn't convinced. "I don't know... do you really think we're going to want to go to Disney World every year for the next 45 years?" he asks. Mom reminds him of what the sales agent said, "we wouldn't have to! We can bank and borrow points to do a 2-bedroom Ocean View Villa at Aulani when the kids are a little older [or go on a cruise, or ABD, or transfer to various international properties through Interval, etc.)"
Agree that the poster misunderstood the business strategy behind Aulani, but you’re misunderstanding it as well. Disney did not spend 800 million dollars to build Aulani as a sales tool to sell Florida product. They built it to sell it, but wound up overestimating east coasters’ willingness to cover expensive travel expenses and endure a ten hour flight to get there, with WDW already in their backyard. So, ten years later, Disney is still selling points, but not in any rush because the property is beautiful and they’re making a fortune on it as a hotel, even though that was not the original intent.

Of course Aulani also functions as an additional option for all DVC owners, which as always is a nice side benefit for prospective DVC buyers.
 
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What eve the reason for building Aulani, DVC will no longer build off property resorts. What will be interesting is to see what happens with vero or hilton when the contracts expire.
 
much better than a huge hotel. Was supposed to an Atlantis,,,could you imagine looking at that.
I would love Atlantis to be next door to Aulani. I could hang out at Aulani with my kids, wife and their grandma during the day. At night, my wife and I could go party at Atlantis. It would be awesome.
 
They’ll sell off both Vero and Hilton.

Or they'll incorporate them into the trust as they move more toward the Marriott style of points ownership without home resorts.

The trust solves issues that Disney has with properties like Aulani apparently not many people want Aulani as a home resort.

But I still think Disney would have preferred that their non-Disneyland/-Disney World DVC resorts would grow to the scale of Marriott or Hyatt while commanding the Disney premium. And I think Disney still wants real estate to be a big part of their overall portfolio, now that they're launching suburban communities. I imagine that at some point we'll see crossover between DVC and Storyliving.
 
Or they'll incorporate them into the trust as they move more toward the Marriott style of points ownership without home resorts.

The trust solves issues that Disney has with properties like Aulani apparently not many people want Aulani as a home resort.

But I still think Disney would have preferred that their non-Disneyland/-Disney World DVC resorts would grow to the scale of Marriott or Hyatt while commanding the Disney premium. And I think Disney still wants real estate to be a big part of their overall portfolio, now that they're launching suburban communities. I imagine that at some point we'll see crossover between DVC and Storyliving.
All that trust stuff is just idol speculation. But even if it were to go ahead, I think it would be difficult to incorporate older properties into a trust of which they were not originally a part.

Why do you think Disney has an interest in new real estate? Have they actually purchased any new land in recent memory, aside from the three DVC properties outside of Anaheim and Orlando? Re Storyliving, I think developers are pretty much footing the bill and giving Disney some sort of percentage of the sales for participating in the design and having a presence in the community. It’s found money. They’re neither buying the land nor building the homes.
 
I don't have any insider information, but I do think Storyliving is part of a broader real estate strategy and not simply an opportunistic partnership. Certainly they've developed a roadmap internally that would make Storyliving and DVC synergistic?

And yes, the trust is all speculation at this point, but why did they develop the trust in the first place? It seems clear it's there to divorce DVC contracts from the idea of a home resort, no?
 
I don't have any insider information, but I do think Storyliving is part of a broader real estate strategy and not simply an opportunistic partnership. Certainly they've developed a roadmap internally that would make Storyliving and DVC synergistic?

And yes, the trust is all speculation at this point, but why did they develop the trust in the first place? It seems clear it's there to divorce DVC contracts from the idea of a home resort, no?
All good questions! The whole existence of the trust is a bit of a mystery. Some think it’s part of a long term plan to allow multiple home resorts with a single purchase, possibly for new resorts going forward, possibly to include new and existing resorts, or maybe the trust is part of the existing DVC system and has nothing to do with home resorts, and represents some bookkeeping sleight of hand that saves Disney money. Who knows!

Personally, I’ve never come across any mention of any sort of long range goal on Disney’s part to either acquire or develop additional real estate. They tried that a while back with Celebration, and ultimately got out of it. I think growing, improving, and wringing more profits out their core businesses remain a priority.

Aside from marketing Storyliving to DVC members, not sure how any other synergy might work. I guess they could offer a discount on DVC to new home buyers, but those Storyliving homes are very pricey, and I’m not sure a discount on DVC points would provide a meaningful enough incentive to mean much when you’re already spending millions on a new house. No matter what Disney’s long range plans for Storyliving are, I’m sure they’ll wait to see how the first two announced communities pan out before proceeding much further.
 
I’m genuinely shocked to read there are people who want a crowded mega resort next to AUL instead of an unspoiled plot of land. I’m a bit of an ocean view/oceanfront snob and can’t bring myself to pay extra points for OV, so the high floor IV rooms with a view of ocean on the horizon beyond the lot are perfect. I doubt we will want to visit AUL while the neighboring property is under construction and then once it’s occupied the whole beach crescent will be more crowded than the beaches of Waikiki. No thank you!

Maybe if it’s a small ultra high end property it will work out OK, but I think an Atlantis-like resort will be unpleasant for the majority of Aulani guests and probably bad for Aulani prices if enough owners decide to sell.
 
I’m genuinely shocked to read there are people who want a crowded mega resort next to AUL instead of an unspoiled plot of land. I’m a bit of an ocean view/oceanfront snob and can’t bring myself to pay extra points for OV, so the high floor IV rooms with a view of ocean on the horizon beyond the lot are perfect. I doubt we will want to visit AUL while the neighboring property is under construction and then once it’s occupied the whole beach crescent will be more crowded than the beaches of Waikiki. No thank you!

Maybe if it’s a small ultra high end property it will work out OK, but I think an Atlantis-like resort will be unpleasant for the majority of Aulani guests and probably bad for Aulani prices if enough owners decide to sell.
Oh yeah my wife and I would LOVE to go party at Atlantis next door while my mother in law watches the kids at Aulani. We are crossing our fingers something cool gets developed
 
I’m genuinely shocked to read there are people who want a crowded mega resort next to AUL instead of an unspoiled plot of land. I’m a bit of an ocean view/oceanfront snob and can’t bring myself to pay extra points for OV, so the high floor IV rooms with a view of ocean on the horizon beyond the lot are perfect. I doubt we will want to visit AUL while the neighboring property is under construction and then once it’s occupied the whole beach crescent will be more crowded than the beaches of Waikiki. No thank you!

Maybe if it’s a small ultra high end property it will work out OK, but I think an Atlantis-like resort will be unpleasant for the majority of Aulani guests and probably bad for Aulani prices if enough owners decide to sell.
If it was actually unspoiled land, I might agree with you. But it was cleared around the same time the land for Aulani was and left abandoned. I would at least like a usable park area if no resort wants to build there.
 
I’m genuinely shocked to read there are people who want a crowded mega resort next to AUL instead of an unspoiled plot of land. I’m a bit of an ocean view/oceanfront snob and can’t bring myself to pay extra points for OV, so the high floor IV rooms with a view of ocean on the horizon beyond the lot are perfect. I doubt we will want to visit AUL while the neighboring property is under construction and then once it’s occupied the whole beach crescent will be more crowded than the beaches of Waikiki. No thank you!

Maybe if it’s a small ultra high end property it will work out OK, but I think an Atlantis-like resort will be unpleasant for the majority of Aulani guests and probably bad for Aulani prices if enough owners decide to sell.
Regardless of what anyone wants, my guess is that land is just going to sit there for a long, long time. I don’t think the tourist numbers are good enough for any developer to get financing for some huge over the top resort. There is a building boom for condos in Honolulu, but, aside from a not so special, somewhat generic Renaissance Hotel, that’s not even on the beach and is a component of a condominimum complex near the Ala Moana Shopping Center, a fancy, new, from the ground up beach resort hasn’t been built in Hawaii for years and years.
At one point the Atlantis developers were trying to get the state to allow them to add a gambling component, but that went nowhere.
There was some talk about two boutique hotels at one point, but I’m not holding my breath for those either!
 
Regardless of what anyone wants, my guess is that land is just going to sit there for a long, long time. I don’t think the tourist numbers are good enough for any developer to get financing for some huge over the top resort. There is a building boom for condos in Honolulu, but, aside from a not so special, somewhat generic Renaissance Hotel, that’s not even on the beach and is a component of a condominimum complex near the Ala Moana Shopping Center, a fancy, new, from the ground up beach resort hasn’t been built in Hawaii for years and years.
At one point the Atlantis developers were trying to get the state to allow them to add a gambling component, but that went nowhere.
There was some talk about two boutique hotels at one point, but I’m not holding my breath for those either!
Given the rates that the Four Seasons and Ritz Carlton can demand, it’s a little surprising to me that the exclusive luxury hotels aren’t more profitable (and there is less interest in building them)— is the “new” Ritz on Turtle Bay just a rehab of a pre-existing resort?— but I am relieved to hear there doesn’t appear to be a current owner actively planning to develop it— I would assume it would take several months to get new plans approved even if someone was motivated to start today?

As long as we have ample notice between a final plan and groundbreaking, I suppose we can always cancel reservations and, depending on what those plans look like, sell our contract, if something ever does get finalized.
 
I’m genuinely shocked to read there are people who want a crowded mega resort next to AUL instead of an unspoiled plot of land. I’m a bit of an ocean view/oceanfront snob and can’t bring myself to pay extra points for OV, so the high floor IV rooms with a view of ocean on the horizon beyond the lot are perfect. I doubt we will want to visit AUL while the neighboring property is under construction and then once it’s occupied the whole beach crescent will be more crowded than the beaches of Waikiki. No thank you!

Maybe if it’s a small ultra high end property it will work out OK, but I think an Atlantis-like resort will be unpleasant for the majority of Aulani guests and probably bad for Aulani prices if enough owners decide to sell.
I totally agree. Even if it's a cleared lot, that's still better than another giant mega-building taking up space.
 
Given the rates that the Four Seasons and Ritz Carlton can demand, it’s a little surprising to me that the exclusive luxury hotels aren’t more profitable (and there is less interest in building them)— is the “new” Ritz on Turtle Bay just a rehab of a pre-existing resort?— but I am relieved to hear there doesn’t appear to be a current owner actively planning to develop it— I would assume it would take several months to get new plans approved even if someone was motivated to start today?

As long as we have ample notice between a final plan and groundbreaking, I suppose we can always cancel reservations and, depending on what those plans look like, sell our contract, if something ever does get finalized.
Yes, the Ritz on Turtle Bay is a rehab, of a beautiful hotel that was itself just rehabbed! I doubt the Ritz is doing much. If whatever ultimately gets built on that lot, sometime far down the line, isn’t a complete monstrosity, I really don’t think it would diminish the Aulani experience, aside from the annoyance of construction, the hours of which would probably be regulated.

I think the possible hotel(s) would share the #2 lagoon with the existing condo building, not the one used by Aulani and The Four Seasons. I doubt it would wind up diminishing the Aulani experience and, on the plus side, it might be nice to have several more nearby dining options.
 
Yes, the Ritz on Turtle Bay is a rehab, of a beautiful hotel that was itself just rehabbed! I doubt the Ritz is doing much. If whatever ultimately gets built on that lot, sometime far down the line, isn’t a complete monstrosity, I really don’t think it would diminish the Aulani experience, aside from the annoyance of construction, the hours of which would probably be regulated.

I think the possible hotel(s) would share the #2 lagoon with the existing condo building, not the one used by Aulani and The Four Seasons. I doubt it would wind up diminishing the Aulani experience and, on the plus side, it might be nice to have several more nearby dining options.
If it’s not the same crescent then I would be much happier, and if it doesn’t block most of the island view rooms in EWA tower then I’ll be grudgingly optimistic.
 
I think the possible hotel(s) would share the #2 lagoon with the existing condo building, not the one used by Aulani and The Four Seasons. I doubt it would wind up diminishing the Aulani experience and, on the plus side, it might be nice to have several more nearby dining options.

this is exactly right, and more dining options now that Aulani's have tumbled in quality so drastically would be especially welcome
 












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