Will resale prices go down after Jan 19th?

[4luv2cdisney]

First question is if you normally buy an AP or would work it to make an AP worth buying vs tickets.

Then it depends on if you can use the Gold AP or if you go during blackout dates that require you to get the Platinum.

A Gold AP new is $648.59 including tax
A DVC discounted Platinum is $797.69 including tax
A non-DVC Platinum is $952.11 including tax
A DVC discounted Platinum plus is 904.19 including tax
A non-DVC Platinum plus is $1058.61 including tax

There are renewal rates for all of the above.


So first question is if you need an AP? Do your tickets cost more than the Gold AP for your trips or do you do multiple trips in a year?
Then, do you go over Easter or Christmas/NY holidays when Gold AP's are blacked out?

If an AP makes sense and you don't need to worry about blackout days then it's comparing the Gold AP price to the non-discounted Platinum $952.11-648.59 or $303.52 savings.
If you need the Platinum because you do go during blackout dates then it's comparing the DVC discounted to non-discounted Platinum $952.11-797.69 = $154.42

If your a FL resident you already qualify for the discounted AP's and no need to have it thru DVC.

And there's always the caveat - the discounted AP's could go away at any time. They haven't always been offered but have been for many years now.

Yes a very thorough explanation!

I run my #s in a "what I would have done" way. I even compare my stays to moderates because pre DVC I would not have paid for BWV with X discount. I would have stayed at a mod on free dining and bought 2 sets of tix, etc etc.

I COULD tweak the numbers to make DVC look significantly better, but I really try not to.

 

[TheMick424]

I don't think there's much argument in a $14k savings.

I think (pre purchase) most will run numbers on buying 75 direct and the balance resale. So, if that reduced your savings to 10K you would recoup the $4k with about 13 APs. If you've already bought, you really shouldn't worry about it unless you're considering buying more!! Enjoy what you've got!

That makes sense, and probably what I should have done. Hindsight is 20-20!

 

[MommaBerd]

I don't have a blue card and wish I did, despite others trying to convince me it isn't "worth it". My rational side opted to purchase resale, but my irrational side sees the perks, discounts and events and feels left out.

I think it is always hard for people to put themselves in someone else's shoes.

But when my irrational, emotional side starts talking, I remind myself of just how much money I saved and that usually does the trick.

 

[DVCjj]

The highly desirable resorts all have location as their most desirable feature. DVC would need to build a new tower at BLT to have any new resort approach the popularity of the existing resorts. Look at AKV, it is one of the most beautiful themed resorts at WDW, but is not that highly rated because of its location. I think all the best locations are already built on.

Totally agree. Location, location, location. Own at BCV/Poly and would most likely buy Direct at BLT new tower if built. Love our stays there & BWV also. Again, location rules for us.

 

[Ben E N]

Just my thought about the resale restriction impact:
I could see it affecting BLT, GFV, CCV, and Poly by $3-5 per point, AKV by maybe $5, BCV, GCV, and BWV not at all (due to their premium location and close expiration date - people who buy there want to only stay there), and it mostly affecting the others.
I anticipate seeing OKW and SSR points going for $5-8 cheaper over the next two years, regardless of the economy. The reason being that the owners of other legacy resorts bought there to stay there, while a large percentage of OKW and SSR purchases were sleep around ones. The tighter the system gets, with less resale buyers being able to book elsewhere, the less appealing the contracts at those two resorts will be, hence the lowering of prices.

I could be way off, and for all we know DVC will continue to get more expensive no matter the outside circumstances, but those moves make the most sense in my mind.

 

[Kim Gillihan]

Put it another way. The thousands you save going resale you can “spend” some of those savings each year you buy an AP. If you “saved” $10k going resale how long would it take before it would have been worth it going direct?

Amen...

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

What do most people estimate as the savings per annual pass? I’m curious to crunch my numbers

Some advice that was given to me about banking on those annual pass discounts..
""Only calculate in the savings from the passes you know your going buy, and then buy them ASAP!. (keeping expiration dates in mind now)
Disney could take that perk away or change it at anytime!!""

When we bought in you could buy annual pass vouchers with no expiration date..
We choose to buy less direct points and buy some resale so we could buy 10 non expiring annual pass vouchers.
(Disney added expiration dates to vouchers 6mo later) --- see they can take it away or change it at anytime!

Luckily we had already bought our passes and we plan to use them this fall!
I've been told by MS we will be given a platinum, since the voucher states access to all 4 parks no black out dates.
so I calculate that small little advice helped us save us $387.66 pre pass. (thank you disboards!!)

passing along some great advice and hope it helps..

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Some advice that was given to me about banking on those annual pass discounts..
""Only calculate in the savings from the passes you know your going buy, and then buy them ASAP!. (keeping expiration dates in mind now)
Disney could take that perk away or change it at anytime!!""

When we bought in you could buy annual pass vouchers with no expiration date..
We choose to buy less direct points and buy some resale so we could buy 10 non expiring annual pass vouchers.
(Disney added expiration dates to vouchers 6mo later) --- see they can take it away or change it at anytime!

Luckily we had already bought our passes and we plan to use them this fall!
I've been told by MS we will be given a platinum, since the voucher states access to all 4 parks no black out dates.
so I calculate that small little advice helped us save us $387.66 pre pass. (thank you disboards!!)

passing along some great advice and hope it helps..

AP's have expiration dates now? I was thinking they were still one product that did not.

 

[Ben E N]

AP's have expiration dates now? I was thinking they were still one product that did not.

Isn't it something like 2030? Still far away, but not "no expiration" far away.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Some advice that was given to me about banking on those annual pass discounts..
""Only calculate in the savings from the passes you know your going buy, and then buy them ASAP!. (keeping expiration dates in mind now)
Disney could take that perk away or change it at anytime!!""

When we bought in you could buy annual pass vouchers with no expiration date..
We choose to buy less direct points and buy some resale so we could buy 10 non expiring annual pass vouchers.
(Disney added expiration dates to vouchers 6mo later) --- see they can take it away or change it at anytime!

Luckily we had already bought our passes and we plan to use them this fall!
I've been told by MS we will be given a platinum, since the voucher states access to all 4 parks no black out dates.
so I calculate that small little advice helped us save us $387.66 pre pass. (thank you disboards!!)

passing along some great advice and hope it helps..

I think we are going to buy a set of vouchers this year, too. Just to hang on to. We used to buy 10 day no exp tix back in the day...

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.. its been a few years since I've looked into it

Kat- Here's the quote I saved that I keep with our vouchers.
"" AP vouchers (also called exchange certificates) may be purchased from Disney online, from Disney by telephone, from the Disney Store, and from some AAA Offices. Once purchased, an AP voucher can be exchanged for a live AP any time up to the end of the year 2030.
AP vouchers must be exchanged for an actual AP (or activated for MagicBand use) at any ticket booth or Guest Relations at WDW.
Each person 18 yrs. or older must present a legal photo ID when purchasing any type of AP, or converting a voucher to an activated AP.""

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Isn't it something like 2030? Still far away, but not "no expiration" far away.

Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.. its been a few years since I've looked into it

Kat- Here's the quote I saved that I keep with our vouchers.
"" AP vouchers (also called exchange certificates) may be purchased from Disney online, from Disney by telephone, from the Disney Store, and from some AAA Offices. Once purchased, an AP voucher can be exchanged for a live AP any time up to the end of the year 2030.
AP vouchers must be exchanged for an actual AP (or activated for MagicBand use) at any ticket booth or Guest Relations at WDW.
Each person 18 yrs. or older must present a legal photo ID when purchasing any type of AP, or converting a voucher to an activated AP.""

What's been explained to me is the 2030 is some sort of IT programming date. It's not that they actually expire then but it's the date the input into the system. It's always been that as it is for tickets that had no expiration but still show that date online.

 

[Ben E N]

What's been explained to me is the 2030 is some sort of IT programming date. It's not that they actually expire then but it's the date the input into the system. It's always been that as it is for tickets that had no expiration but still show that date online.

Well now I just need to get $12000 or so to front load purchasing APs with...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well now I just need to get $12000 or so to front load purchasing APs with...

haha - indeed. These past couple of years it beats any stock index!

 

[Ben E N]

haha - indeed. These past couple of years it beats any stock index!

In all honesty, and in keeping in line with this thread, I'm considering burning all my non-emergency fund savings to buy some more points before the 19th. I figure if the resale price does plummet, the rental value of those points would go up.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

In all honesty, and in keeping in line with this thread, I'm considering burning all my non-emergency fund savings to buy some more points before the 19th. I figure if the resale price does plummet, the rental value of those points would go up.

I'm not one who thinks the sky is falling but personally I'd only buy if I had already had an intention to do so and had the intention to use the points myself. There's still some ifs to be answered. But if I had the intention to buy before for my use I also wouldn't be held back in continuing forward by the announcement. It may go up. It may not. It may be smart to jump on it. It may not.

 

[Ben E N]

I'm not one who thinks the sky is falling but personally I'd only buy if I had already had an intention to do so and had the intention to use the points myself. There's still some ifs to be answered. But if I had the intention to buy before for my use I also wouldn't be held back in continuing forward by the announcement. It may go up. It may not. It may be smart to jump on it. It may not.

Yep. That's right where my wife and I are at. I always thought we could use more points, she has been more conservative. This 19th announcement just brought the issue right to the surface.
Something tells me whatever she decides goes...and that's assuming the contract wouldn't get gobbled up in ROFR anyway.

 

[Spartan86]

Something tells me whatever she decides goes...

I have never regretted following that line of thinking. Love her to death. She doesn’t ask for much so what she wants, she gets

 

[Opie100]

I've always considered high resale value as a perk to buying direct points. I can't understand why potentially draining the value of Riviera resale points could help the direct buy market. I would especially never buy direct if I knew that I'd completely lose my shorts if I had to sell. That's why I wonder if Riviera resale will eventually still get the 2.0 resorts at seven months.

I think I'm going to hold off for now. I'm probably not going to be able to book Riviera at seven months anyway, so why spend more now? My only concern is that Disney goes ROFR crazy and everyone's back in the market for resale soon.

 

[LindaYoung]

I think it's really easy for all of us to sit here and say the original 14 are good enough as it's all we know so far. We also are all grandfathered in and have at least some points to let us try out whatever future resorts they build. 1st time buyers are not going to look at it the same way.

it's kind of like blue card carriers commenting that the benefits aren't worth much. It's easy to say because we already have it. Maybe it's true, and you don't place much value in them, but they're still an option and I'd bet every single one of us uses at least a discount here or there or has gone to the members lounge in epcot..whatever. There are a lot of people who will want all the options.

That being said, with DVC raising prices as they are, the original resort resale will still be a good value as long as there is a large enough gap between direct pricing. So, I don't see prices plummeting but if they're too close to direct......I'd buy direct. I just tried to convince 2 new buyers to consider resale or just hold off for awhile and see where things are headed. They both bought this week. Direct.

However, I'll say it again, I find it much more concerning that people may stop seeing the value in DVC in general because of rising dues and point chart manipulation. If people can't afford enough points for their stay, they won't be buying at all. But, then again, resale may become the only option for some. And all of us that already own and are happy with the benefits we already have on the points we already have will be looking at resale...... But how good of a "deal " will it take ?

So the answer is clear as mud! Lol

I agree with your comment that people will buy direct if there is not that much of a price difference between resale and direct. I have selectively decided where I will buy direct and where I will buy resale based on the price differential. Obviously Aulani is a great place to buy resale since prices are about half the direct price. The rest all depend on your perspective and how many points you are buying. For small contracts, I still lean toward buying direct. So I think it is in Disney’s best interests to make sure resale prices do not plummet. They need to walk a fine line between having a price differential that is significant but still makes it affordable to do buy backs. The higher they raise direct prices, the easier it is for them to maintain this balance and not let the resale market plummet.