Will resale prices go down after Jan 19th?

[CaliAdventurer]

That's my point. If any of the new DVCs become highly desirable, who would want to buy a contract from the original 14 that won't allow them to book there? I think it would negatively impact resale values of the original 14 contracts.

LAX

Well, demand for the prime classic 14 such as VGF will go up as the 7 mo window get incredibly harder with more resale members joining up and can’t stay at the new properties. That home resort window will matter more than ever. True the grandfathered members will book into the new and feee some space but only until the other resorts sell out ( and all direct of course) allowing more members who can book past resorts also. I don’t see a member of Riviera or Reflections not wanting to stay at VGF or Poly because it’s MK.

Imagine in the near future a DVC between VGF and MK and that alone with and Epcot resorts and a lake resort, those who can’t book 2.0 resorts will be missing out and the newer members missing nothing. At a pace of one resort per 2 years it will be felt fast.

In 20ish years when they start to expire, DVC can just soak up the old resort, remodel and rebrand and resell it into the 2.0 collections until eventually on CC isn’t left on its own and the whole system has recycled itself. The resale market will be hindered and DVC have control of the market. Pretty smart. And as someone else elaborated, this could be done over and over.

 

[DougEMG]

Well, demand for the prime classic 14 such as VGF will go up as the 7 mo window get incredibly harder with more resale members joining up and can’t stay at the new properties. That home resort window will matter more than ever. True the grandfathered members will book into the new and feee some space but only until the other resorts sell out ( and all direct of course) allowing more members who can book past resorts also. I don’t see a member of Riviera or Reflections not wanting to stay at VGF or Poly because it’s MK.

Imagine in the near future a DVC between VGF and MK and that alone with and Epcot resorts and a lake resort, those who can’t book 2.0 resorts will be missing out and the newer members missing nothing. At a pace of one resort per 2 years it will be felt fast.

In 20ish years when they start to expire, DVC can just soak up the old resort, remodel and rebrand and resell it into the 2.0 collections until eventually on CC isn’t left on its own and the whole system has recycled itself. The resale market will be hindered and DVC have control of the market. Pretty smart. And as someone else elaborated, this could be done over and over.

For sure Disney is going to let the classic resorts expire, then remodel and resell. When they do that they will finally be able to completely eliminate the current DVCI and turn everything in the DVCII model, totally destroying the resale value of all resorts/owners.

 

[Ohana2011]

Where else to build "near the parks? Just a thought, but... what is the possibility they will reclaim some of the property used for storage, textiles, etc. & move those services out further away from the parks - say... at BK Ranch? Silly thought - but you never know.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I think it's really easy for all of us to sit here and say the original 14 are good enough as it's all we know so far. We also are all grandfathered in and have at least some points to let us try out whatever future resorts they build. 1st time buyers are not going to look at it the same way.

it's kind of like blue card carriers commenting that the benefits aren't worth much. It's easy to say because we already have it. Maybe it's true, and you don't place much value in them, but they're still an option and I'd bet every single one of us uses at least a discount here or there or has gone to the members lounge in epcot..whatever. There are a lot of people who will want all the options.

That being said, with DVC raising prices as they are, the original resort resale will still be a good value as long as there is a large enough gap between direct pricing. So, I don't see prices plummeting but if they're too close to direct......I'd buy direct. I just tried to convince 2 new buyers to consider resale or just hold off for awhile and see where things are headed. They both bought this week. Direct.

However, I'll say it again, I find it much more concerning that people may stop seeing the value in DVC in general because of rising dues and point chart manipulation. If people can't afford enough points for their stay, they won't be buying at all. But, then again, resale may become the only option for some. And all of us that already own and are happy with the benefits we already have on the points we already have will be looking at resale...... But how good of a "deal " will it take ?

So the answer is clear as mud! Lol

 

[AdamsMum]

I think it's really easy for all of us to sit here and say the original 14 are good enough as it's all we know so far. We also are all grandfathered in and have at least some points to let us try out whatever future resorts they build. 1st time buyers are not going to look at it the same way.

it's kind of like blue card carriers commenting that the benefits aren't worth much. It's easy to say because we already have it. Maybe it's true, and you don't place much value in them, but they're still an option and I'd bet every single one of us uses at least a discount here or there or has gone to the members lounge in epcot..whatever. There are a lot of people who will want all the options.

I agree with you, as an owner since 2007, it's all about the optics. What once seemed like a "club" with benefits for all has been chipped away at over the years. I have BWV and BC and I bought for location, the Riviera doesn't appeal to me in either look or location. So even though I can book there, I probably won't. That isn't the same as not having the option of booking there, or a resale Riviera buyer not having the ability to book the 14 older resorts. What used to be a warm and fuzzy relationship for me, is starting to feel like a bad date. I guess I fell for the pixie dust, hook, line and sinker. LOL.

 

[TheMick424]

I think it's really easy for all of us to sit here and say the original 14 are good enough as it's all we know so far. We also are all grandfathered in and have at least some points to let us try out whatever future resorts they build. 1st time buyers are not going to look at it the same way.

it's kind of like blue card carriers commenting that the benefits aren't worth much. It's easy to say because we already have it. Maybe it's true, and you don't place much value in them, but they're still an option and I'd bet every single one of us uses at least a discount here or there or has gone to the members lounge in epcot..whatever. There are a lot of people who will want all the options.

I don't have a blue card and wish I did, despite others trying to convince me it isn't "worth it". My rational side opted to purchase resale, but my irrational side sees the perks, discounts and events and feels left out.

I think it is always hard for people to put themselves in someone else's shoes.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

great point!! They need another park .. its already so packed at certain times, its almost... not enjoyable...

They just

I don't have a blue card and wish I did, despite others trying to convince me it isn't "worth it". My rational side opted to purchase resale, but my irrational side sees the perks, discounts and events and feels left out.

I think it is always hard for people to put themselves in someone else's shoes.

For sure, nothing makes you want something more than someone telling you that you can’t have it.

 

[ScubaCat]

I don't have a blue card and wish I did, despite others trying to convince me it isn't "worth it". My rational side opted to purchase resale, but my irrational side sees the perks, discounts and events and feels left out.

I think it is always hard for people to put themselves in someone else's shoes.

I have a blue card, but no way would I pay any sort of premium for it, especially the thousands extra for 75 direct points. The value is in the rooms. Anything else - even the gold APs - is just extra.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I don't have a blue card and wish I did, despite others trying to convince me it isn't "worth it". My rational side opted to purchase resale, but my irrational side sees the perks, discounts and events and feels left out.

I think it is always hard for people to put themselves in someone else's shoes.

Put it another way. The thousands you save going resale you can “spend” some of those savings each year you buy an AP. If you “saved” $10k going resale how long would it take before it would have been worth it going direct?

 

[TheMick424]

They just


For sure, nothing makes you want something more than someone telling you that you can’t have it.

So true!!

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Put it another way. The thousands you save going resale you can “spend” some of those savings each year you buy an AP. If you “saved” $10k going resale how long would it take before it would have been worth it going direct?

Resale may save you $10,000 in some cases, but 75 points resale will not save you $10,000.

On the high end, PVB or GFV would cost $16,500 for 75 points. If you know where I can get that contract via resale for $6,500, please point me in that direction!!!

On the low end, SSR will cost you maybe $3000 more to buy direct vs resale.

I recouped $1400 the day after I bought my contract by purchasing APs. If the benefit stays around for me to buy another set, I'm golden.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I have a blue card, but no way would I pay any sort of premium for it, especially the thousands extra for 75 direct points. The value is in the rooms. Anything else - even the gold APs - is just extra.

I believe that's easy for you to say because you have the discount. A family buying APs knowing they could save over $1000 every time with a blue card may see the value even if there is some risk of losing benefits in the future. Especially if they only saved $3000 buying resale. It's a gamble, but if they "win" they saved how many thousands over a lifetime? Certainly more than 3.

Everyone's circumstances produce different #s.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I believe that's easy for you to say because you have the discount. A family buying APs knowing they could save over $1000 every time with a blue card may see the value even if there is some risk of losing benefits in the future. Especially if they only saved $3000 buying resale. It's a gamble, but if they "win" they saved how many thousands over a lifetime? Certainly more than 3.

Everyone's circumstances produce different #s.

Correct but that's actually an easy number to calculate and most have done that.

The feeling they are not part of club aspect is emotional and the financial aspect for those that don't buy ap's isn't going to pay back but the emotional aspect is used to sell.

 

[jarestel]

I think some are giving way too much importance to staying at non-home resorts. Granted, there are members who buy the cheapest property with no intentions of never staying there, but for the most part I feel people buy resorts they like and want to stay at. My first contract was at VWL (now BRV) in 2001 and I had exactly two other choices of on property resorts if I didn't want to stay at VWL (OKW and BWV). Didn't bother me because I liked VWL. Sure, we have many more resorts now than we did in 2001, but except for "trying out" whatever resort was currently the new one, I always book my home resorts because that's where I want to stay.

People don't go to WDW because of the resorts, they go because of the parks. I don't expect that will change so as long as people think they can save a few $$$ on hotel bills by using DVC, there should be a fairly thriving resale market, benefits or not.

 

[TheMick424]

Correct but that's actually an easy number to calculate and most have done that.

The feeling they are not part of club aspect is emotional and the financial aspect for those that don't buy ap's isn't going to pay back but the emotional aspect is used to sell.

What do most people estimate as the savings per annual pass? I’m curious to crunch my numbers

 

[4luv2cdisney]

What do most people estimate as the savings per annual pass? I’m curious to crunch my numbers

A platinum pass is about the same as a (DVC) Gold pass. The gold pass has blackout dates around Christmas to New Year and around Easter. Obviously doesn't work for everyone.

Current price difference is $300 per pass (rounding). If you want to the penny, prices are on WDW website.

 

[Spartan86]

DVC Gold is $303.52 less than Platinum for an initial purchase currently.
If you buy Platinum, the DVC price is $154.44 less.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What do most people estimate as the savings per annual pass? I’m curious to crunch my numbers

First question is if you normally buy an AP or would work it to make an AP worth buying vs tickets.

Then it depends on if you can use the Gold AP or if you go during blackout dates that require you to get the Platinum.

A Gold AP new is $648.59 including tax
A DVC discounted Platinum is $797.69 including tax
A non-DVC Platinum is $952.11 including tax
A DVC discounted Platinum plus is 904.19 including tax
A non-DVC Platinum plus is $1058.61 including tax

There are renewal rates for all of the above.


So first question is if you need an AP? Do your tickets cost more than the Gold AP for your trips or do you do multiple trips in a year?
Then, do you go over Easter or Christmas/NY holidays when Gold AP's are blacked out?

If an AP makes sense and you don't need to worry about blackout days then it's comparing the Gold AP price to the non-discounted Platinum $952.11-648.59 or $303.52 savings.
If you need the Platinum because you do go during blackout dates then it's comparing the DVC discounted to non-discounted Platinum $952.11-797.69 = $154.42

If your a FL resident you already qualify for the discounted AP's and no need to have it thru DVC.

And there's always the caveat - the discounted AP's could go away at any time. They haven't always been offered but have been for many years now.

 

[TheMick424]

DVC Gold is $303.52 less than Platinum for an initial purchase currently.
If you buy Platinum, the DVC price is $154.44 less.

Thanks! Important distinction about the initial purchase vs Renewal price. Comparing gold to platinum isn’t exactly apples-to-apples, but is good for an approximation.

That being said, for some perspective I calculated how many annual passes I would have to buy to make up my savings between direct and resale (approximately $14K savings). If you assume $300 discount per annual pass that is approximately 47 annual passes. 23 years for a couple and 12 years for a family of 4. Obviously there are other discounts but I was just trying to frame it in my mind.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

What do most people estimate as the savings per annual pass? I’m curious to crunch my numbers

Thanks! Important distinction about the initial purchase vs Renewal price. Comparing gold to platinum isn’t exactly apples-to-apples, but is good for an approximation.

That being said, for some perspective I calculated how many annual passes I would have to buy to make up my savings between direct and resale (approximately $14K savings). If you assume $300 discount per annual pass that is approximately 47 annual passes. 23 years for a couple and 12 years for a family of 4. Obviously there are other discounts but I was just trying to frame it in my mind.

I don't think there's much argument in a $14k savings.

I think (pre purchase) most will run numbers on buying 75 direct and the balance resale. So, if that reduced your savings to 10K you would recoup the $4k with about 13 APs. If you've already bought, you really shouldn't worry about it unless you're considering buying more!! Enjoy what you've got!