Why we chose to buy the Poly direct from Disney instead of buying resale

[ziravan]

Full disclosure I own at Poly. The reason why I own is because I decided that Poly, all complaints notwithstanding, is going to be a tough resort to book, especially at busy times.

1. Bungalow vs Studio point mismatch.

2. Proximity to EPCOT monorail during F&W. (Even though I own BCV, we bought a F&W fixed week at Poly).

3. We can go to MK and EPCOT without taking a child out of the stroller. That's not a small perk for families with small children.

4. The number of renters during busy season.

5. Poly points are too expensive to use elsewhere. Certainly this will be the case for owners like me, where Poly is an add on.

As a Poly owner, sure I hope my decision is justified. While that my bias might opinion on the matter, it's that bias that made me decide to buy in the first place.

I'm very comfortable that our guaranteed F&W Lake View is going to prove to be a good decision for us.

 

[skier_pete]

Well, comparing VGF avail and Poly is apples and oranges at this point. VGF is 100% avail and 98% sold out while Poly is 60% avail but 40% sold out. Currently, if 100% of Poly owners book studios, there'll still be studio dates left over.

This is very true - and you are 100% correct that UNTIL it is sold, or near sold, the exact results cannot be told.

We've already seen, with a healthy surplus of availability vs percentage of owners, that Poly is going to very difficult to book during busy season..

I don't think we've seen this at all. I've observed Poly availability at 7 months in July, August, Septermber, October, November. The only issues I've seen are the highest peak weeks, a couple of weeks during F&W and then early December and the marathon weekends. The same weekends that

Yes. You will probably be able to stay at Poly Jan-Apr without owning there. That can be said about most DVC properties. "Buy where you want to stay" can be more appropriately amended to "buy where you want to stay when you want to stay". Shoot, these days it's tough to get OKW and SSR in the 7 month window during peak busy season..

Not at all correct - Most DVC properties are available at 7 months for 9 months of the year - not just Jan-Apr. The only ones that are not are VGC (an exception being at DLR), VGF, and BCV. All three are SMALL resorts with high demand locations.

Poly, being a near park resort, will book like one.

OK - if you say it's comparable to other near park resorts, let's compare it to Bay Lake Tower - because as you say VGF is a bad comparison.

BLT has 295 total available units. 133 of them are lockoff units - meaning 133 studios are available at any one time. Of those - 20% are "standard", 60% are "lake view" and 20% are "park view".
Of the total points sold for that property - only ~15 % of the points are available for studios. That's it - 15 %.
Yet BLT has 7 month availability 9+ months of the year - as I showed in my booking pattern thread HERE.

There are two major differences between the Poly and BLT though:
1) The 20 bungalows that account for about 20% of the points being sold - this as you astutely pointed out works AGAINST the Poly availability, even for those that own there. However, this is the case for ALL DVC properties. Do you think that only 15 % of the owners at BLT bought points there to stay in studios? I seriously doubt that to be the case at all. We can only look at VGF to see that owners at these resorts strongly favor studios. However, there's enough studio availability at 7 months must of the year to be able to get in there.
2) The fact that studios make up 80% of the points - works massively in favor of Poly studio availability. A resort like BLT you have owners that might buy in originally for the studios, but discover they want larger rooms, and still book at their home resort. I am telling you, a lot of Poly owners will end up discovering that while they like the poly, they really want a bigger room for their family of 5, and they will spread across the other properties at 7 months. I believe this will happen in great enough quantities to offset the bungalows and allowed the Poly to be available consistently at 7-months.

yes - you are correct, if you want to travel the third week of October of first week of December every year, then owning at the Poly will be necessary. But I do believe that much of the year there will be 7-month availability at this resort, I numbers that surpass even WLV, BCV even BWV and BLT. Also also think it will be a very popular resort to switch into - so beyond 7-months will become quite difficult much of the year.

The truth is - we are arguing opinion. Neither of us will convince the other - especially since we are both arguing from points of view that favor us. You argue as a Poly owner, that would be disappointed if your resort is always available for rent at 7-months. I argue as an outside owner - who would be happy to be able to rent at the Poly at 7-months. (Though the fact I have to pay a 20-30% point "premium" to stay there means I probably won't bother that often anyways.) It's hard to convince someone of something that really wants their opinion to be true.

But I will say this - you may well be right. The facts will not be known - as you point out - until the property is nearly sold out. Until then - it's just conjecture on BOTH our parts.

 

[ziravan]

This is very true - and you are 100% correct that UNTIL it is sold, or near sold, the exact results cannot be told.



I don't think we've seen this at all. I've observed Poly availability at 7 months in July, August, Septermber, October, November. The only issues I've seen are the highest peak weeks, a couple of weeks during F&W and then early December and the marathon weekends. The same weekends that



Not at all correct - Most DVC properties are available at 7 months for 9 months of the year - not just Jan-Apr. The only ones that are not are VGC (an exception being at DLR), VGF, and BCV. All three are SMALL resorts with high demand locations.



OK - if you say it's comparable to other near park resorts, let's compare it to Bay Lake Tower - because as you say VGF is a bad comparison.

BLT has 295 total available units. 133 of them are lockoff units - meaning 133 studios are available at any one time. Of those - 20% are "standard", 60% are "lake view" and 20% are "park view".
Of the total points sold for that property - only ~15 % of the points are available for studios. That's it - 15 %.
Yet BLT has 7 month availability 9+ months of the year - as I showed in my booking pattern thread HERE.

There are two major differences between the Poly and BLT though:
1) The 20 bungalows that account for about 20% of the points being sold - this as you astutely pointed out works AGAINST the Poly availability, even for those that own there. However, this is the case for ALL DVC properties. Do you think that only 15 % of the owners at BLT bought points there to stay in studios? I seriously doubt that to be the case at all. We can only look at VGF to see that owners at these resorts strongly favor studios. However, there's enough studio availability at 7 months must of the year to be able to get in there.
2) The fact that studios make up 80% of the points - works massively in favor of Poly studio availability. A resort like BLT you have owners that might buy in originally for the studios, but discover they want larger rooms, and still book at their home resort. I am telling you, a lot of Poly owners will end up discovering that while they like the poly, they really want a bigger room for their family of 5, and they will spread across the other properties at 7 months. I believe this will happen in great enough quantities to offset the bungalows and allowed the Poly to be available consistently at 7-months.

yes - you are correct, if you want to travel the third week of October of first week of December every year, then owning at the Poly will be necessary. But I do believe that much of the year there will be 7-month availability at this resort, I numbers that surpass even WLV, BCV even BWV and BLT. Also also think it will be a very popular resort to switch into - so beyond 7-months will become quite difficult much of the year.

The truth is - we are arguing opinion. Neither of us will convince the other - especially since we are both arguing from points of view that favor us. You argue as a Poly owner, that would be disappointed if your resort is always available for rent at 7-months. I argue as an outside owner - who would be happy to be able to rent at the Poly at 7-months. (Though the fact I have to pay a 20-30% point "premium" to stay there means I probably won't bother that often anyways.) It's hard to convince someone of something that really wants their opinion to be true.

But I will say this - you may well be right. The facts will not be known - as you point out - until the property is nearly sold out. Until then - it's just conjecture on BOTH our parts.

What made me decide to buy a fixed week lake view is how necessary owning a Fall fixed week is for studios at VGF.

1. VGF is a special case. Apples and oranges. That said, if you bought VGF to book a studio first two weeks if Dec and you don't have a fixed week, you are either going to be disappointed or you're going to learn how to be an expert walker.

The problem is that this wasn't readily apparent until right at sell out. By the time it was understood that owning a fixed week in Dec would be such an advantage, they weren't avail for sell any longer.

There are a few dozen VGF owners that have a really great setup.

2. The trend during busy season is getting worse. DVC might ultimately reallocate against this trend, but until/unless it does, "buy where you want to stay" actually means "buy where you want to stay from Late Sept through Jan marathon."

There are reasons to suspect that Poly will book faster than commonly assumed here. They might pan out, or not.

I used to advise new buyers within their recission period to take a strong look at the benefits of a fixed week. Of late, DVC has offered but not promoted them.

Now I don't even advise that. Both the 25th anniversary promotion and the current promotion exclude fixed weeks. The cost used to be a wash (required 10% more points but you actually owned 10% more points). Now, a 160-200 point fixed week buy would cost you about $2,000 in lost promotion.

So. DVC has gone from not promoting fixed weeks to actively discouraging them. Makes you wonder if they'll even offer them in the future.

If they don't, that'll make those Dec VGF fixed weeks even more of a special deal. Of course, I eventually want to say the same about mine.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I get the feeling that at 7 months, the rental market demand is all Poly. Year-round.

 

[ziravan]

I get the feeling that at 7 months, the rental market demand is all Poly. Year-round.

Enough so that an enterprising Poly owner that wanted to book elsewhere might do better transferring in points and renting out their Poly points.

Example: I normally vacation in Oct for F&W. In Nov, I arrange to transfer in 160 AKV points at $13/point because that's where I want to stay. I book AKV at 11 month window in Oct and then in Jan I rent out Dec Poly points for $16/point.

$480 bucks PLUS 11 month booking window instead of 7. I think those kinds of deals could be found.

Or.

If David's et al were smart, they'd offer to swap 11 month bookings elsewhere for 11 month Poly points. "You don't need to book at Poly as a backup for your 7 month plans. Book your next vacation at any DVC resort at 11 months, today."

Poly is both iconic and expensive. There'll be no shortage of Poly renters. I know this first hand. I listed a Poly rental a year ago and I still get an occasional unsolicited request if I currently have Poly points to rent (I don't.)

 

[chitwndan]

I'm late to the party, but just want to say congratulations on your purchase, and Welcome Home.

I love the poly and almost held off for the poly to be available from DVC, but decided to pull the trigger on BLT.

I share your love for the poly and it's nice to see your excitement.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I'm not sure... Obviously you've done your homework, but I don't understand the answers.. Than again, it's not my checkbook so I don't have to!!

But, you bought poly for the 50 year use contract. You then say you want to stay at places such as BLT often, then continue to say you will only stay at WDW 1 of every 3 years. You also say you're in your 30's and want to pass it to your children. Taking all this into consideration, I just can't see how you will book the Poly more than 7 times..???
Again, really not my business, just trying to understand the logic.

MG

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Enough so that an enterprising Poly owner that wanted to book elsewhere might do better transferring in points and renting out their Poly points.

I'm actually going to be interested in seeing how the Poly rental market matures. I have seen some Poly owners try to rent direct at premium rates, but seemingly have issues based on how slowly their for-rent posting moves to closure. Right now, they're in competition with both the assumption of $14pp at 7 months via a broker, and also with Disney's 1/3 ownership of Poly DVC. It's not generally too difficult right now to get a Poly studio via Disney as a cash booking, often with a room-only discount, and once you start looking at $16-18/pp, the pricing ends up comparable.

Once they are less available via Disney, a comparison to the cost of a standard room becomes more likely, but people will still be comparing the idea of $14pp at 7 months to premium owner direct rental. I suspect many of them may not get a booking in high season, though.