Why wait times have gotten crazy

[Planogirl]

No, my original point was disagreeing with the broad statement that data shows that people are spending more time in lines. I'm sure there are some people who spend more time in lines and some people who spend less. It all depends on what you do and when you do it.

It's just like I disagree with other general statements, like one made earlier in this thread that nobody is able to do more because of FP+.

What your preferences are and when you do things would have affected legacy too.

I'm sure that those who study the numbers can come to some type of conclusion as to whether the average visitor spends more or less time in lines. There will always be extremes but the average is what I'd like to see.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

No, my original point was disagreeing with the broad statement that data shows that people are spending more time in lines. I'm sure there are some people who spend more time in lines and some people who spend less. It all depends on what you do and when you do it.

It's just like I disagree with other general statements, like one made earlier in this thread that nobody is able to do more because of FP+.

I guess since you never worded anything that way and that you only focused on how people are now saving 1.5 hours that just didn't seem to fit.

 

[wisblue]

I guess since you never worded anything that way and that you only focused on how people are now saving 1.5 hours that just didn't seem to fit.

I thought my first response to the general statement about people spending more time in lines (#587) was pretty clear in stating my opinion that some people are spending more time in lines and others are spending less. Sorry if it didn't come across that way.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Me either. And I fail to see how it is actually easier. Sure you get too book you FPs in advance, but then everyone has to line up for the kiosk and work with touch screens that don't react to my touch half the time.

And it really isn't a level playing field if you think about it. Let's say family 1 has a tripped book two days ahead of family 2, but they are going to MK on the same day. Well, family 1 gets the pick of FPs before family 2. Is that really fair? I would rather enter the parks on even ground and go to the FP machines that I really want like the old FP system.

It also places larger group sizes at an big disadvantage. I'm don't think I would want to try to plan an extended family vacation to WDW. Single parties have a huge advantage.

BTW, your theory about single rider lines and tiering doesn't really hold up, because if you look at the chart the data is pretty consistent from 2014 to 2015, and the one spike clearly seems to be an aberration. The average wait times are all in the range of 10-50 minutes and follow a very similar pattern year over year. Then suddenly there is the one entry with an average wait of 100 minutes, which is double the second highest number for the entire two year period. I think that's why he concludes that it is probably a technical glitch or wrong data.

It makes sense for single rider times to increase. How many times have people on this board recommend using them because of the tiers in Epcot and DHS.

I wonder how much times waits increased when Test Track was closed? Did it effect crowds as much as Maelstrom's closing. And if closing Maelstrom makes things that much busier, what will happen in January when Soarin' is closed too?

What I noticed on our past trip was that lines started building much earlier, so lines started getting "long" by 10:30. Maybe this is because there is no FP free grace time in the morning anymore.

In regards to FP+ return lines, we noticed that certain rides consistently had longer waits while others had none. BTMRR's FP return line was always backed up into the walkway while we were there. They even added additional switchbacks to the return line. KS and EE in AK and Soarin' were also backed up. But we never had problems at Splash, 7DMT, PP, or Space Mountain.

 

[wisblue]

It makes sense for single rider times to increase. How many times have people on this board recommend using them because of the tiers in Epcot and DHS.

I should clarify again, as I did earlier in the thread, that I was really addressing Len Testa's specific comment in his post about wait times at Epcot that I think referred only to an unusual spike in the wait times for the single rider line at Test Track.

Based on his data, the single rider line at TT has not gone up significantly, but the line at RNRC has.

It could very well be that the increase at RNRC is affected by the tiers.

 

[wisblue]

What your preferences are and when you do things would have affected legacy too.

I'm sure that those who study the numbers can come to some type of conclusion as to whether the average visitor spends more or less time in lines. There will always be extremes but the average is what I'd like to see.

Of course, how much time any guest spends in lines always was and always will be dependent on what the guest does, how he/she goes about doing those things, and how crowded the park is on a particular day.

Because of all of those variables, it would be very difficult to say with any precision how much time an "average" guest spends in lines. It's hard enough to define what an average guest is. But, I think it's safe to say that the Dis tilts pretty heavily toward the extreme of experienced guests who do a lot of things at WDW a lot more efficiently than the average guest. The guests who used 10 paper FPs in a day, including 2 or 3 each for rides like Soarin and Test Track, were clearly at an extreme end of the spectrum. The pure math of the number of people in a park and the number of FPs available in a day guarantees that.

But, getting back to the subject of this thread (standby wait times) if you want to discuss how much time an average guest spends in lines, would you agree that the starting point for the discussion should be the average standby wait time? One of the things that I think sends discussions about standby waits off target is the tendency of some people to focus on peak wait times, when obviously the vast majority of guests are not waiting in lines that long.

 

[Happy_2_B]

Of course, how much time any guest spends in lines always was and always will be dependent on what the guest does, how he/she goes about doing those things, and how crowded the park is on a particular day. Because of all of those variables, it would be very difficult to say with any precision how much time an "average" guest spends in lines. It's hard enough to define what an average guest is. But, I think it's safe to say that the Dis tilts pretty heavily toward the extreme of experienced guests who do a lot of things at WDW a lot more efficiently than the average guest.

Exactly. Although the wait time blogs are very interesting information and are much needed, having an understanding of why the wait times are going up does nothing to affect those wait times. They waits will still be whatever they are- and so at some point the discussion returns to the best way to tour the parks given these higher waits. Rope drop, early EMH with a park hop to a lower attendance park at lunchtime, very late evenings for those that are so inclined, using FP+ later in the day when wait times climb, and using single rider lines will enable people to continue to tour efficiently and effectively for the time being.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Of course, how much time any guest spends in lines always was and always will be dependent on what the guest does, how he/she goes about doing those things, and how crowded the park is on a particular day.

Because of all of those variables, it would be very difficult to say with any precision how much time an "average" guest spends in lines. It's hard enough to define what an average guest is. But, I think it's safe to say that the Dis tilts pretty heavily toward the extreme of experienced guests who do a lot of things at WDW a lot more efficiently than the average guest. The guests who used 10 paper FPs in a day, including 2 or 3 each for rides like Soarin and Test Track, were clearly at an extreme end of the spectrum. The pure math of the number of people in a park and the number of FPs available in a day guarantees that.

But, getting back to the subject of this thread (standby wait times) if you want to discuss how much time an average guest spends in lines, would you agree that the starting point for the discussion should be the average standby wait time? One of the things that I think sends discussions about standby waits off target is the tendency of some people to focus on peak wait times, when obviously the vast majority of guests are not waiting in lines that long.

It certainly would seem that the exact opposite of that is true. Wait times only increase as more people are in the parks and decrease as people are leaving. Based on that simple understanding then it would certainly seem to indicate that at points when there are more people in the parks the lines are longer. For someone who arrives when the park opens they may get to do some things more efficiently but I also doubt they are the average guest. I'd suspect the average guests are the ones arriving between 10-12 and staying until the parades/fireworks and then leaving. Those are the people who then get in line and drive up the times. The average guest isn't getting there at open, leaving at lunch and then coming back in the afternoon and riding while the shows are going on.

 

[wisblue]

It certainly would seem that the exact opposite of that is true. Wait times only increase as more people are in the parks and decrease as people are leaving. Based on that simple understanding then it would certainly seem to indicate that at points when there are more people in the parks the lines are longer. For someone who arrives when the park opens they may get to do some things more efficiently but I also doubt they are the average guest. I'd suspect the average guests are the ones arriving between 10-12 and staying until the parades/fireworks and then leaving. Those are the people who then get in line and drive up the times. The average guest isn't getting there at open, leaving at lunch and then coming back in the afternoon and riding while the shows are going on.

Of course wait times are longer when there are more people in the park. Did I say something that makes you think I would disagree with that?

What you seem to be saying is that an average guest waits in longer than average lines. That's an interesting theory.

But, a lot of your premise can be addressed by the fact that the average wait times studied by Touring Plans only cover the period from 10 AM to 5 PM, thereby eliminating from their calculations those early and late hours when wait times are shorter and a lot of experienced guests get in a lot of their rides. So, those average wait times would seem to be a pretty good measure of the types of wait times the guest you are describing would encounter.

If you are trying to come up with an objective comparison of how standby wait times have changed over the last couple of years, what data would you use?

 

[Jennytoon]

Because of all of those variables, it would be very difficult to say with any precision how much time an "average" guest spends in lines. It's hard enough to define what an average guest is.

It certainly would seem that the exact opposite of that is true. Wait times only increase as more people are in the parks and decrease as people are leaving. Based on that simple understanding then it would certainly seem to indicate that at points when there are more people in the parks the lines are longer. For someone who arrives when the park opens they may get to do some things more efficiently but I also doubt they are the average guest. I'd suspect the average guests are the ones arriving between 10-12 and staying until the parades/fireworks and then leaving. Those are the people who then get in line and drive up the times. The average guest isn't getting there at open, leaving at lunch and then coming back in the afternoon and riding while the shows are going on.

I think wisblue is correct about the difficulty of determining the "average" guest, and you have overly simplified the calculation. For instance, here are some factors that would influence some of the variables involved in touring:

• Have kids who wake up at the crack of dawn anyway? Yes = likely (almost certain) to make rope drop; No = less likely to make rope drop
• Have kids who nap well in strollers? Yes = likely to stay in parks in afternoon; No = likely to leave the parks for an afternoon break
  
• Short trip, infrequent visit? Yes = more likely to arrive at rope drop and stay late; No = more likely to arrive late or spend significant time out of park
• Visiting in peak heat? Yes = more likely to take a break in the afternoon; No = more likely to stay in the parks longer

The first two obviously only consider families with kids. For the last two, I bet you would find that the ratios between yes/no are different even between families with kids and families without kids, which is yet another variable. So now we have 8 (not mutually exclusive) cohorts for families with kids and 4 (not mutually exclusive) cohorts for families without kids, for a total of 12 cohorts. I defy you to tell me which of those 12 cohorts represents the "average" guest. And I didn't even begin to address how those variables affect the likelihood of riding during shows, staying for parade / fireworks, etc.

 

[Hudson Hornet]

I think WDW already ties premium lodging to the resorts. For example, if you want to walk to a resort, you must stay in a Deluxe.

That would technically be travel perks, not in park perks.

 

[epcotty]

Whatever the line situation is at the time, I think guests will typically try to go on as many attractions as possible (if possible as many as they used to) that's what we do. I don't think long lines would cause an increase in shopping

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Of course wait times are longer when there are more people in the park. Did I say something that makes you think I would disagree with that?

What you seem to be saying is that an average guest waits in longer than average lines. That's an interesting theory.

But, a lot of your premise can be addressed by the fact that the average wait times studied by Touring Plans only cover the period from 10 AM to 5 PM, thereby eliminating from their calculations those early and late hours when wait times are shorter and a lot of experienced guests get in a lot of their rides. So, those average wait times would seem to be a pretty good measure of the types of wait times the guest you are describing would encounter.

If you are trying to come up with an objective comparison of how standby wait times have changed over the last couple of years, what data would you use?

Touring Plans and EasyWDW both did studies showing wait times increased from 2013 to 2014 and from 2014 to 2015. Obviously someone is waiting in those lines of they're growing and it's not the people who known how to game the system. It's the typical guest who may or may not pre-reserve their 3 FP and then move around at peak times. Lines only get longer if someone is waiting in them and the average guest isn't going to know the ins and outs of avoiding lines. I think many people here stay in the bubble of the tricks and best case scenarios they learn and not consider what their first trip was like which is typically an average guest experience. I know that for some their first trip came after they came here and got tips but is suspect that is a very small number of first time visitors.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Whatever the line situation is at the time, I think guests will typically try to go on as many attractions as possible (if possible as many as they used to) that's what we do. I don't think long lines would cause an increase in shopping

I tend to agree with this. I think most people come to wdw (and most vacations) with a budget for souvenirs. I doubt that not being in line for a ride is making most people increase their souvenir budget.

 

[Happy_2_B]

Just an FYI- the latest blog is up on wait times at touringplans.com- AK covered this time. Link here:

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/11/01/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-animal-kingdom/

 

[wisblue]

Touring Plans and EasyWDW both did studies showing wait times increased from 2013 to 2014 and from 2014 to 2015. Obviously someone is waiting in those lines of they're growing and it's not the people who known how to game the system. It's the typical guest who may or may not pre-reserve their 3 FP and then move around at peak times. Lines only get longer if someone is waiting in them and the average guest isn't going to know the ins and outs of avoiding lines.

Yes, I am fully aware of those studies, and I know that they said that standby lines at SOME attractions increased from before FP+ to after FP+. I have always acknowledged these studies and their conclusions. There does seem to be some disagreement, though, about how much those standby lines have increased and how they affect guests. It's always interesting to me that some people want to quote these studies as the proof that standby lines have increased, but then seem to want to ignore their conclusions about how much the lines have increased, and that lines at some attractions have gone down.

The same guests who don't know the in and outs of touring are also the ones who would be more likely to be standing in the long lines at the major attractions (if they can't get a SDFP for them). So, to them, a 10 minute longer wait for POC and a 13 minute shorter wait for Space Mountain is a net positive. More experienced guests may just focus on the longer wait for POC because they aren't going to wait in a long line for Space, whether it's 75 minutes or 60.

I think many people here stay in the bubble of the tricks and best case scenarios they learn and not consider what their first trip was like which is typically an average guest experience. I know that for some their first trip came after they came here and got tips but is suspect that is a very small number of first time visitors.

I agree with your statement, but am not sure what point you are trying to make with it.

If you are trying to support an argument that average visitors are spending more time in standby lines than they would have with paper FPs, or no FPs at all, I don't think you can do that. Jennytoon mentioned above some of the different family/travel group factors that affect how different people tour the parks. Even within your example of a group that arrives in late morning with no advanced FPs and stays through the fireworks and then leaves, there are going to be a lot of variations. That group might get FPs first thing when they enter the park or not get any all day. They might be mostly interested in Fantasyland rides, character greetings, and some of the anytime attractions, or they might prefer the mountains. And, maybe most importantly, the overall crowd size that day is going to have a significant impact on what they are going to be able to do and how much they will be waiting in lines.

I really think it is fruitless to generalize to try to support an argument that, not only do you hate FP+, but that FP+ has a negative impact on the majority of guests and, therefore, represents a big mistake on Disney's part. I think it makes more sense to focus on the reality of what is going on in the parks and let people decide for themselves how they feel about it.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

The people who don't ride rides benefit the most.

It's not about whether anyone loves, hates or is luke warm about FP+ if you want to ride the rides you're impacted by the lines. If people do get FP+ for the mountains mid afternoon they do save time. If they don't then they won't. I just don't think the majority of the people are doing that based on the fact those almost always have FP availability during those times often even up to day of. Yes there are variables for everything but again you'd have to consider that the people who are there when the parks are maxed make the majority of the guest and their experience is going to involve longer lines.

 

[bcrook]

It also places larger group sizes at an big disadvantage. I'm don't think I would want to try to plan an extended family vacation to WDW. Single parties have a huge advantage.



It makes sense for single rider times to increase. How many times have people on this board recommend using them because of the tiers in Epcot and DHS.

I wonder how much times waits increased when Test Track was closed? Did it effect crowds as much as Maelstrom's closing. And if closing Maelstrom makes things that much busier, what will happen in January when Soarin' is closed too?

What I noticed on our past trip was that lines started building much earlier, so lines started getting "long" by 10:30. Maybe this is because there is no FP free grace time in the morning anymore.

In regards to FP+ return lines, we noticed that certain rides consistently had longer waits while others had none. BTMRR's FP return line was always backed up into the walkway while we were there. They even added additional switchbacks to the return line. KS and EE in AK and Soarin' were also backed up. But we never had problems at Splash, 7DMT, PP, or Space Mountain.

It is strange that the Mine Train FP return line is always so short. I found the Peter Pan FP return line to be completely crammed and in the walkway in the evenings. Dinosaur has a backed up FP return line often too. The RnRC did not seem to be affected. I sure can't find a pattern for this.

 

[Planogirl]

Of course, how much time any guest spends in lines always was and always will be dependent on what the guest does, how he/she goes about doing those things, and how crowded the park is on a particular day.

Because of all of those variables, it would be very difficult to say with any precision how much time an "average" guest spends in lines. It's hard enough to define what an average guest is. But, I think it's safe to say that the Dis tilts pretty heavily toward the extreme of experienced guests who do a lot of things at WDW a lot more efficiently than the average guest. The guests who used 10 paper FPs in a day, including 2 or 3 each for rides like Soarin and Test Track, were clearly at an extreme end of the spectrum. The pure math of the number of people in a park and the number of FPs available in a day guarantees that.

But, getting back to the subject of this thread (standby wait times) if you want to discuss how much time an average guest spends in lines, would you agree that the starting point for the discussion should be the average standby wait time? One of the things that I think sends discussions about standby waits off target is the tendency of some people to focus on peak wait times, when obviously the vast majority of guests are not waiting in lines that long.

You can certainly look at average standby wait times but the extremes do need to be factored in and that includes those quieter times too. However if those who study the wait times only look at certain periods then they should be able to draw comparisons. For example if they looked at 10-5 for every time period then it should work to see whether wait times have increased in general at least during that time range.

 

[wisblue]

You can certainly look at average standby wait times but the extremes do need to be factored in and that includes those quieter times too. However if those who study the wait times only look at certain periods then they should be able to draw comparisons. For example if they looked at 10-5 for every time period then it should work to see whether wait times have increased in general at least during that time range.

Sure, Touring Plans and easywdw have the data about posted wait times and both did year over year comparisons of those wait times last year.

But, that data doesn't (and can't) answer the question about whether guests are spending more time waiting in lines than they were before. Guests who tour efficiently, and use their FPs effectively to avoid some long lines, don't have to wait in those longer lines.

I would bet that a guest who enters the park in late morning or early afternoon armed with FPs for 3 popular attractions is spending less time waiting in lines than they would have doing the same thing with just the paper FP system or no FPs at all. This would especially be true on days when the parks are more crowded. And I think Disney wants to spread out the crowds by allowing guests to get FPs for popular attractions at preferred times without having to arrive at the park in the first few hours.