Not going to speak for Len, as he may pop in here to comment. With that said, I am involved in another thread over at touringplans.com- and based upon his comments over there, Len's new blog should be out today or tomorrow with some new information. Don't know if their research is completely done, but quite a bit of additional research seems to be done. Guess we will find out how much they have accomplished in the last few days once it is posted. I just checked before coming over here and it wasn't up yet- would guess that someone will chime in here once they see it has posted since this thread was originally started based upon his comments about a week ago regarding this topic.
Good. The last "what is going on with wait times blog" happened, much too soon, as far as I was concerned. It takes time for people to adjust, and the offsite guests were only added to the system Dec 2013 for AK, and Jan 2014 for the rest of the parks. Then Touring Plans made their big pronouncement on Feb 19th, 2014 only weeks after, and when the resort was in "off-season" mode. A lot of things hadn't happened yet. No Easter, no Summer, no Holiday season. And those all go to affect utilization.
You can break people down into a few groups
People who know about it, and use it to it's maximum
People who know about it, and use it partially
People who know about and don't use it
People who don't know about it.
At the time of Touring Plans first blog, I would bet there were far more people in groups 2,3,4 then there was in group 1. After more people started experiencing some of the problems, and reporting back how vital those 3 FP's were, the more people started moving up the chain. So more people using it to maximum, more people using it partially and fewer people not using it at all.
But I imagine a large culprit happened after the first blog post. April 28, 2014 - what day is that? That's the day that the ability to make 4th, 5th, 6th FP+ came online. Then utilizing your FP became REALLY important. Not just to make and use your first 3, but to use them early enough that there would still be good stuff for your 4th and 5th. That shoved even more people into Group 1, and using it to maximum, as well as diverting more seats to the FP line. And in a system where more seats are diverted, than people opting out of standby, the standby line clogs up.