Why wait times have gotten crazy

[EricInPA]

This message includes some interesting comments about whether people are really doing fewer attractions with FP+, or if most of the impact is on re-rides.

This is what I think as well. There's no way to fit a strategy for every group, and I the article you linked from easywdw provides a great explanation on perceived vs actual wait times and how they relate to park attendance, ride-to-ride factors, etc

We spend time at our local theme park in line trying to figure out when they decide to add trains to certain coasters. Often it seems like they do a good job of adding capacity to keep the line consistent, not so much to make it a walk-on for everyone.

 

[wisblue]

The one factor I think that is missing is are all rides running efficiently as before plus? They may have the same capacity but are they loading at the same rates now that there is a huge increase in fast pass attractions (ie. two lines don't load as good as one)! I guess basically that would lower capacity if you would want to lump it all together!

When I referred to "rides operating at the same level of capacity" I meant the same thing as what you are calling efficiency. The OP that I was quoting referred to rides operating at less than capacity, so I stuck with his terms.

Because for almost all rides the two lines merge well before the final loading area, there is no reason for two lines to adversely affect the number of people who ride. And that OP wasn't talking about efficiency. He was referring to Disney intentionally reducing the number of riders to allow less staffing.

 

[flicx]

No you're looking at it wrong. It's not about increasing wait times but increasing usage. Thats why all those were added. Think how many more FP are given out now for parades, fireworks and Laugh Floor.

So it's not about waiting less it is about giving out more passes? I guess I have been looking at it wrong all along! If Disney's goal was handing out more passes and increasing overall waits and reducing what you can get done in a day! I say well done Disney!

 

[havoc315]

You are not wrong in the examples you cite to indicate the difference in experience that families may have depending on their budget. However, I would argue that these are things families are well accustomed to when they have accepted the constraints of their budget. Families on a strict budget don't eat out at home. It is not new to watch people go into restaurants on vacation when they can't afford it. Families that are on a limited budget are already accustomed to the fact that their friends may go to Disney World but they will take cheaper vacations because it is what their family can afford. They may *wish* they could afford to go to Disney, but it does not make them feel that the vacation they did take was less, as they were taking it. I may choose to go to camping because it's cheaper than Disney, but I am not, the whole time I am camping, watching videos of people at Disney and thinking how it would be much nicer if I could be on their vacation.

However, it is a different thing to choose not to go to Disney because you can't afford it, than it is to go to Disney on a tight budget and have your experience lessened by watching as a significant number of people who could afford to pay more than you stream past you in the line, so that your own wait is longer. To me, that's rubbing your nose in it, in a way that actively makes your vacation lesser. Other people may not feel the same. I know my DH doesn't, and when we go to Uni in a couple of years we will stay at one of their Deluxe hotels, because I am in a no-win situation. I know that to a certain extent I am only fooling myself that I will not be paying for Express Pass, but it's an easier pill for me to swallow than paying for it outright, and not getting it at all would be not in his lexicon. Since I want to stay married (joking there), that's the compromise.

Also, note the italics on "significant number" above. It's not about the cost. It's about the impact. I'd be fine with $20 for extra FP if they limited the number to something that wouldn't have any significant impact on the people that didn't pay it (they'd probably have to lottery the ability to buy them at that point). What I'm not fine with is my 10 minutes less in line translating to 10 minutes more for someone else just because I ponied up some extra dough.

As you have pointed out... that system is already in place in Universal, and it doesn't ruin the park for those of lesser means.

 

[flicx]

When I referred to "rides operating at the same level of capacity" I meant the same thing as what you are calling efficiency. The OP that I was quoting referred to rides operating at less than capacity, so I stuck with his terms.

Because for almost all rides the two lines merge well before the final loading area, there is no reason for two lines to adversely affect the number of people who ride. And that OP wasn't talking about efficiency. He was referring to Disney intentionally reducing the number of riders to allow less staffing.

I thought that was what you were referring to. However there have been reports on rides like pirates that boats were going out half full or totally empty on the fast pass plus loaded side. That would lower capacity! Not sure how each ride works but this could be problematic! I also think Disney is reducing staffing to pinch pennies and it shows with longer waits!

 

[wisblue]

I thought that was what you were referring to. However there have been reports on rides like pirates that boats were going out half full or totally empty on the fast pass plus loaded side. That would lower capacity! Not sure how each ride works but this could be problematic! I also think Disney is reducing staffing to pinch pennies and it shows with longer waits!

I have not seen anything like that, and I haven't seen anyone like Josh say anything like that either. On my visits earlier this year they had a CM at the merge point directing people into a line. Of course, at those times, usually about 1 1/2-2 hours after opening, there was no wait on either side, so it didn't matter.

 

[capegirl]

Wow! I haven't gotten all the way through this thread yet and I already don't want to go to WDW. Between ticket prices and this FP+ thing I just might take a trip to Germany. I didn't mind waiting in lines but now you have to schedule things out 60 days in advance just to ride a ride?! That's crazy.

Go to the actual Germany with a real passport? Now that's an idea! On the other hand, there are no lines or attractions in Disney's version of Germany. Okay, so maybe you will need an ADR to watch the accordion playing/polka show while you eat, but at least you won't have to book this meal 60 days in advance.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Maybe you're just now noticing the waits because before, you never had to wait standby.

Since most of the secondary rides didn't have legacy FP, of course I waited in Standby for them. We usually go around the same time every year, I have never seen 50 minute waits for Star Tours or 40 minutes waits at Living with the Land before. And that wasn't on a weekend or an EMH day either. Even the People Mover had an extended queue.

And some of the FP waits were backed up to. We experienced long FP waits at Soarin', BTMRR, Spaceship Earth, and Kilamanjaro Safaris.

All of the data shows that wait times for secondary attractions has increased.

Sure, but then you have to compare peak to peak or slow to slow. You had HM at 25 min in the old days. That only happened during early morning or slow days. HM was a 45-60 min wait midday on a busy Saturday. We waited 40+ min standby for the HM in 2010 and 2012.

I think that's what people are trying to do. October has usually been considered to have moderate crowds. So why now are we seeing multiple 8,9, and even 10 level days. There are still more schools off in summer than October.

 

[flicx]

I have not seen anything like that, and I haven't seen anyone like Josh say anything like that either. On my visits earlier this year they had a CM at the merge point directing people into a line. Of course, at those times, usually about 1 1/2-2 hours after opening, there was no wait on either side, so it didn't matter.

There were reports of that very thing happening on here.

 

[Hudson Hornet]

Since most of the secondary rides didn't have legacy FP, of course I waited in Standby for them. We usually go around the same time every year, I have never seen 50 minute waits for Star Tours or 40 minutes waits at Living with the Land before. And that wasn't on a weekend or an EMH day either. Even the People Mover had an extended queue.

And some of the FP waits were backed up to. We experienced long FP waits at Soarin', BTMRR, Spaceship Earth, and Kilamanjaro Safaris.

All of the data shows that wait times for secondary attractions has increased.



I think that's what people are trying to do. October has usually been considered to have moderate crowds. So why now are we seeing multiple 8,9, and even 10 level days. There are still more schools off in summer than October.

Your experience mirrors my own. I used to go exclusively in the summer and I thought the wait times were brutal. 30 minutes for Peter Pan, Splash or Pirates was bad in my book. I even deigned to wait 40 minutes for Space Moutain.

Over the past 5 years or so we have started going in October because of the lower crowds. Well, the last 2 Octobers have been anything but lower at Magic Kingdom and the standby lines are unbearable.

I don't know what has happened, but it makes me miss the old hot summer days.

 

[wisblue]

There were reports of that very thing happening on here.

OK, but if they are sending boats out empty on POC in the FP lane that isn't saving Disney any money because the staff is already in place to service both sides. That would just be a mistake by the person at the merge point who should be sending more people down the FP lane to keep it full.

POC is also one of the few rides (and the only one I can think of right offhand) that has separate lines and two separate loading areas like that.

 

[PD Shaw]

This thread has a lot of different observations, opinions, and theories, and even some different interpretations of the same facts. But, this one comment really piques my curiosity.

As someone who likes to study attraction capacities, you must agree that if a park has (1) the same number of people in attendance, (2) the same rides in operation, (3) the same park hours, and (4) rides operating at the same level of capacity, the total number of attractions experienced by all guests, and the average number of attractions per guest, will be the same, regardless of what type of FP system is in place or how long standby lines are.

A number of Dis posters who have visited WDW frequently, and who say they love going to Walt Disney World, (including some on this thread) have said that they are doing fewer attractions since FP+ was implemented. Some have said that they can’t believe that anyone is doing more than they used to do. But, unless at least one of those 4 factors has changed, it isn’t possible for everyone to be doing less than they did before. My opinion has been that a small percentage of people who did many more attractions than the average guest are now doing less, while a greater percentage of guests are now doing slightly more. I wouldn’t expect people who think their experiences are adversely affected to be consoled by the fact that others are benefitting.

I doubt if this could be proven one way or another, but I would be interested in specific examples of things you have seen that have made you conclude that Disney is operating rides at less than capacity more than they used to at similar times of the year. I don’t see much of this myself, except for very early in the morning, because we usually visit at busy times. But, it seems that I have often read that some of the downsides to visiting at less busy times are shorter park hours, more rides closed for refurbishment, and more rides operating at less than full capacity for more of the day.

ETA: There is some interesting discussion about wait times in this item in the easywdw forums:

http://www.easywdw.com/forums/showt...ents-on-recent-increase-in-wait-times-at-park

I especially note Josh's e-mail to Len Testa of Touring Plans as they try to identify what caused some of the jump in wait times this October. This message includes some interesting comments about whether people are really doing fewer attractions with FP+, or if most of the impact is on rerides. He also questions how many real "power users" there were in the first place.

Josh really doubts that Disney is intentionally reducing ride capacity.

I'm not certain that "the total number of attractions experienced by all guests, and the average number of attractions per guest, will be the same, regardless of what type of FP system is in place or how long standby lines are."

The FP+ system creates incentives. The first incentive is to use it. If you don't use it, you get all of the costs of someone cutting in line front of you and no benefits. (I understand your point is in aggregate: the non-users loss is the users gain, so there is no net change at this point) Most, if not almost all people, will use FP+, but I think the question most of us might be asking is whether they are using it effectively and whether or not other people's effective and/or ineffective use poses costs on everybody else.

Arguably, someone using the FP+ ineffectively might benefit someone using the system effectively, but I'm not certain. At least part of the complaint is that the walkways are crowded, so in theory my ability to move btw/ rides is hampered. But what if a family decides that the three rides it most wants to ride are 7 Dwarfs, Peter Pan and Barnstormer. The incentive here is for them not to go too far from FL, and they might re-ride attractions in the vicinity. A second family might suddenly find stand-by waits that messes up their plans. The first family might not ride as many attractions because FP+ selection has encouraged them to not walk too far, and the second family might not ride as many because they got caught in the standby lines.

I guess I see the FP+ system as part of the ride operations, and if people could be distributed efficiently btw/ attractions, there should be no loss of number of rides, but I think this is a system with its ups and downs. I'm not as critical of it as others here, but I would not be shocked if the FP+ essentially gives the average visitor three quick lines (of varying quality) in exchange for an average 10% wait for each additional ride. At some point, the value is going to be lost.

 

[wisblue]

I'm not certain that "the total number of attractions experienced by all guests, and the average number of attractions per guest, will be the same, regardless of what type of FP system is in place or how long standby lines are."

The FP+ system creates incentives. The first incentive is to use it. If you don't use it, you get all of the costs of someone cutting in line front of you and no benefits. (I understand your point is in aggregate: the non-users loss is the users gain, so there is no net change at this point) Most, if not almost all people, will use FP+, but I think the question most of us might be asking is whether they are using it effectively and whether or not other people's effective and/or ineffective use poses costs on everybody else.

Arguably, someone using the FP+ ineffectively might benefit someone using the system effectively, but I'm not certain. At least part of the complaint is that the walkways are crowded, so in theory my ability to move btw/ rides is hampered. But what if a family decides that the three rides it most wants to ride are 7 Dwarfs, Peter Pan and Barnstormer. The incentive here is for them not to go too far from FL, and they might re-ride attractions in the vicinity. A second family might suddenly find stand-by waits that messes up their plans. The first family might not ride as many attractions because FP+ selection has encouraged them to not walk too far, and the second family might not ride as many because they got caught in the standby lines.

I guess I see the FP+ system as part of the ride operations, and if people could be distributed efficiently btw/ attractions, there should be no loss of number of rides, but I think this is a system with its ups and downs. I'm not as critical of it as others here, but I would not be shocked if the FP+ essentially gives the average visitor three quick lines (of varying quality) in exchange for an average 10% wait for each additional ride. At some point, the value is going to be lost.

My point is that if a ride has a capacity of a certain amount, and the ride is operating all day, the attracfion is going to produce the same number of individual rides, whether those riders are coming from a standby line or a FP line. For example, if you have 10 attractions with a daily capacity of 20,000 rides each, those attractions are going to produce 200,000 total rides in a day as long as the standby line has enough people to fill that capacity. That doesn't mean that everyone in the park gets an equal number of total rides, but if someone is getting less, someone else is getting more. IMHO, it's a perfect example of a zero sum game. If power users are reporting that they are getting fewer rides in a day because of FP+, someone else is picking up those rides.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Ultimately wait times are up based on a combination of factors. At some point a choice was made that it was more important to try and move people to high capacity lower cost attractions. It was decided that the way to do that was put a system in place that allowed people to schedule things. Maybe you can't get things that you would really want to do but here is a suggestion that you might want to try.

When Splash Mountain was built it was the most expensive attraction ever built at $75 million dollars. The MDE is estimated at around $2 billion which would be about 20 Splash Mountains. So do you think crowds would have been better managed with 20 things people really wanted to do or rubber bracelets.

 

[EricInPA]

The perfect crowd control technique, 1 splash mountain at every resort!

 

[ArwenMarie]

I don't mean to be cold. But that already happens...
While you scrape to save to stay off-site... A family even less fortunate will stare jealously, "aren't you lucky that you get to go to Disney at all.. we will never have enough for a vacation like that..."
Meanwhile, the family who scraped to stay off site, will watch jealously as some people stream in and out of the more expensive restaurants..... Will watch as other people return to their rooms in the deluxe hotels, etc..

People don't necessarily "scrape" to stay offsite anymore than they "scrape" to stay onsite. We stay at offsite resorts sometimes because we like multiple bedrooms and bathrooms and a living room and a kitchen and believe me, the quality is just as high as the Disney properties, including DVC, often higher. It's not because we're broke lol.

 

[kathy884]

In the blurbs I read about the new FP+ system, one of the things I remember is Disney marketing/PR people saying that having a fastpass or some fastpasses ups visitor satisfaction, and the new system is to encourage more people to get those fastpasses

I'm hard core offsite and also have a nephew who has a full time theatre job in Orlando, and maintains a part time seasonal status with Disney. That means that if he can get the time off he can go with us to the parks, but we usually don't know till last minute whether we'll just see him for dinner or spend the whole day together. If he comes with us that's free admission. Anyway that FP+ tickets till day of, as I don't buy a ticket till I get to the gate. It also means that busy times aren't appealing any more based on line projections from the unofficial guide. I can't rely on getting any FP + reservations that I'd like. // DS is in college now and usually doesn't start the spring semester until after the MLK holiday. And I've decided to move from a spring break timeframe to that mid January timeframe. Now (and this is often the case), if I can't go at a light crowd time, I rather not even go.

 

[alopez926]

Here's my vote (like it has any meaning). Get rid of 4th and 5th fast passes. Stop people who have multiple sets of MBs from loading them up the day they visit the parks to get many many more than the 3 allotments. Try it and see how that impacts wait times. It's a start without completely upending the whole system or creating tiers where certain onsite guests get more and certain get less.

 

[MrInfinity]

I guess I see the FP+ system as part of the ride operations, and if people could be distributed efficiently btw/ attractions, there should be no loss of number of rides, but I think this is a system with its ups and downs. I'm not as critical of it as others here, but I would not be shocked if the FP+ essentially gives the average visitor three quick lines (of varying quality) in exchange for an average 10% wait for each additional ride. At some point, the value is going to be lost.

I totally agree with you. FP+ gives people, say, 3 rides at 50% wait... and then all other rides are at, say (using your number) 10% longer wait. So if a guest rides 6 rides, that's 50% saved x3 and 10% lost x3. Big win. If he is only trying to ride 3 rides, that is 50% saved, period. If he is trying to ride 30 rides, it is 50% saved x3, and 10% lost x 27. At your 10% rule, the crossover point would be at 18 rides. 3x50% saved, 15x10% lost. Now I think your 10% is generous. I would put it higher than that because the line distribution has gone so much more toward FastPass. But still, even w that, most guest only set out to ride 5-6 rides in a day. If anyone thinks 5 or 6 rides in a day sounds absurd, know the average number of rides per guest, based on dividing the total number of ridings of all attractions in a day by the average attendance works out to between 5 and 6. So, if you are trying to do more than 5 or 6 rides, you should be charged a premium (in wait time) to get in more than the average. And if you want to ride less than 5 or 6, you should be able to do so easily, which you can. And last if you want to be right on the average, around 5 or 6 rides, you will have a moderate time-savings from FP+, which is the case.

 

[SparklePixie]

Maybe you're just now noticing the waits because before, you never had to wait standby.

Many of the rides used to only have standby, no FP, so yes, people were waiting in standby lines.