Why wait times have gotten crazy

[MrInfinity]

Were you really pulling 12 before? We usually would get about 3 (the mountains), and a "surprise" Phillharmagic once in a while...

Me, no. I'd say we'd pull around 6 FP's to rides in the MK. But some folks out here on the Dis knew it way better than me, which I learned later... like that the Barnstomer was off-system, and you could pull a ticket to this even while holding another. Some people have claimed that they rode TSMM all day long by constantly pulling FP- tickets to it. I wasn't able to do that, we'd be first in line for rope drop, get one or two and then they'd be gone for the day.

 

[dlavender]

But, as I've said before, even with inflated FP + times, we did everything we set out to do, except 7DMT. I don't blame the system for not being able to do 7DMT, as in comparing apples to apples, it didn't exist before, and I wasn't willing to give up other rides for it.

 

[dlavender]

Me, no. I'd say we'd pull around 6 FP's to rides in the MK. But some folks out here on the Dis knew it way better than me, which I learned later... like that the Barnstomer was off-system, and you could pull a ticket to this even while holding another. Some people have claimed that they rode TSMM all day long by constantly pulling FP- tickets to it. I wasn't able to do that, we'd be first in line for rope drop, get one or two and then they'd be gone for the day.

I wish I would have discovered DIS back in those days!

 

[Hudson Hornet]

Reading this thread has me really think about what Disneyland and Walt Disney World were intended to be. These parks were made as a playground for families, an escape from reality. Walt himself said -

"We believed in our idea - a family park where parents and children could have fun- together."

"Disneyland is a work of love. We didn't go into Disneyland just with the idea of making money."

The talk of making people pay extra for extra fast passes flies in the face of these two statements. There are already plenty of extras that people with deep pockets can enjoy without having a monopoly on the fun of the attractions. The fantasy should be shared by everyone. I am not a huge fan of the new system, but I can live with it. Changing to tiered ticket system would break my heart, because this would mean a break with Walt's stated intentions and with the Disney spirit. The parks were more to Walt than a money making venture and I hope it remains that way.

 

[MrInfinity]

That's post FP+. It's documented that the peak wait time for Figment was 10 min and the average was 5 which is as low as Disney reports

I have personally waited longer than 10 min for Figment before FP+. And ridden it walk-on. I've also ridden it walk-on in FP+ times. And I love that I can FastPass+ it now, being one of our favorite rides. We rode it (I think) around 5 times over 2 days on our last trip, having invested little-to-no time in the lines at that ride. If you do see a line, chances are you can come back in an hour and there won't be one. It's like Nemo. Once the family-with-kids wave passes and moves on to the World Showcase, the little-kid lines get short, fast.

Still I'd love to read the documentation on peak wait times by ride by year. That would be good reads. I've googled around for this and not found it. If you can help with a link, please share.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

As an example, the HM tends to be a 45-min wait midday. It was in 2010, it was in 2012, and it was in 2015.

Lord knows I don't want to get in the middle of this nonsense, but I can't help myself with this one:

 

[mesaboy2]

Lord knows I don't want to get in the middle of this nonsense, but I can't help myself with this one:

Do yourself a favor and don't. Discussing some of this stuff on here is so pointless.

 

[MrInfinity]

Lord knows I don't want to get in the middle of this nonsense, but I can't help myself with this one:

Yeah tell me about it. Maybe you have more numbers Josh? Someone above said the average and peak ride wait times by ride by year were documented... If that's not out there somewhere, it might be a good thing to have on your site.

By the way, I'll add:
http://www.mouseplanet.com/guide/46...ic-Kingdom/Liberty-Square/The-Haunted-Mansion

"Wait times frequently approach 45 minutes"
"FastPass: No"

So during the pre-FP+ era, HM was a 45-min ride midday, which is exactly what I said.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I have personally waited longer than 10 min for Figment before FP+. And ridden it walk-on. I've also ridden it walk-on in FP+ times. And I love that I can FastPass+ it now, being one of our favorite rides. We rode it (I think) around 5 times over 2 days on our last trip, having invested little-to-no time in the lines at that ride. If you do see a line, chances are you can come back in an hour and there won't be one. It's like Nemo. Once the family-with-kids wave passes and moves on to the World Showcase, the little-kid lines get short, fast.

Still I'd love to read the documentation on peak wait times by ride by year. That would be good reads. I've googled around for this and not found it. If you can help with a link, please share.

Did you ever do the original Journey? I can't remember when you said your first WDW trip was. It's never been a big draw but it's one that that they really killed with bad refurbs. We still ride if my parents go wth us because my Mom is a Figment nut but it's just not the same.

Anyway I've seen the links various places here for the attraction data but the one that sticks with me the most was from Easy WDW and they did a pre and post comparison. The "headliner" attractions were pretty stagnant but the secondary ones are what took the hits.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Yeah tell me about it. Maybe you have more numbers Josh? Someone above said the average and peak ride wait times by ride by year were documented... If that's not out there somewhere, it might be a good thing to have on your site.

This post has over 200,000 views: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...cting-wait-times-at-disney-world-attractions/

 

[MrInfinity]

This post has over 200,000 views: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...cting-wait-times-at-disney-world-attractions/

I've seen that... You claim the peak wait for the HM in 2013 was 25 minutes. I know for certain that the peak wait for the HM in 2010 was more than 25 minutes, having waited 45 minutes for it, myself in 2010 and 2012. Other sites also support this. Yet that chart says the max wait time was 25 minutes. Also it says the Peak wait time for SE was 15 back in 2013, but we waited consistently a half-hour for it.

Also this chart focuses on the change to "standby wait times" but with so many people going thru by FastPass, what does it matter what the posted wait time is, if half of the ridership is now by FastPass? I'd think you should take the FastPass wait time, the Standby wait time, and do a weighted average (based on FP%) to come up with the actual wait time, and it will be quite close to what it was before.

Did you ever do the original Journey? I can't remember when you said your first WDW trip was. It's never been a big draw but it's one that that they really killed with bad refurbs. We still ride if my parents go wth us because my Mom is a Figment nut but it's just not the same.

I think so... I was there during a time when it existed in that form, and when I rode in 2010 it triggered some very remote memories, but I do not particularly recall the old version. I have since pulled it up on Youtube more for educational purposes, and really don't find it all that great. Our kids all absolutely love the ride as it is. If it was better, I don't feel like we're missing out.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Who is happier, the customer that WALKED on all the rides or the one who WAITED in line for a PREMIUM guest experience?

Anyone else here read Upton Sinclair's The Jungle? One way large meat processors got ahead was finding a way to use "everything but the oink." Stuff the butcher used to THROW AWAY- suddenly can be sold as dog food and head cheese. With enough volume, making an extra a penny per pig = big $!!

Add a few vitamins, and whammo -PREMIUM dog food! Ka-ching! $$

Disney's just done the same. Add Fastpass, and suddenly a b-list attractions can be UPSOLD as a PREMIUM experience.

 

[PD Shaw]

My point is that if a ride has a capacity of a certain amount, and the ride is operating all day, the attracfion is going to produce the same number of individual rides, whether those riders are coming from a standby line or a FP line. For example, if you have 10 attractions with a daily capacity of 20,000 rides each, those attractions are going to produce 200,000 total rides in a day as long as the standby line has enough people to fill that capacity. That doesn't mean that everyone in the park gets an equal number of total rides, but if someone is getting less, someone else is getting more. IMHO, it's a perfect example of a zero sum game. If power users are reporting that they are getting fewer rides in a day because of FP+, someone else is picking up those rides.

I guess I'm not certain that it is necessarily a zero - sum game. It wouldn't be if the FP system created inefficiencies so that not all of the excess capacity was distributed from one person to another. One being mentioned here is that there are crowds blocking traffic on days one wouldn't expect. If FP+ is responsible for people being uncertain where to go next, then even power users pay a cost in terms of longer walking times.

I guess the question I have is whether any FP/queuing system could be so poor that it reduced the total number of rides per day? It seem like there are a few ways it could. One would be encouraging people to constantly go from one end of the park to the other, and thus increasing time spent walking. Another would be if it helps concentrate people in one part of the park so that capacity is frequently underutilized in other areas. Another would be if the system itself takes a lot of time at the park to utilize. Another would be if moves people from shorter rides to longer shows.

 

[mesaboy2]

As I said, pointless.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

I've seen that... You claim the peak wait for the HM in 2013 was 25 minutes. I know for certain that the peak wait for the HM in 2010 was more than 25 minutes, having waited 45 minutes for it, myself in 2010 and 2012. Other sites also support this. Yet you're saying the max wait time was 25 minutes. Also you say the Peak wait time for SE was 15 back in 2013, but we waited consistently a half-hour for it.

Also this chart focuses on the change to "standby wait times" but with so many people going thru by FastPass, what does it matter what the posted wait time is, if half of the ridership is now by FastPass? I'd think you should take the FastPass wait time, the Standby wait time, and do a weighted average (based on FP%) to come up with the actual wait time, and it will be quite close to what it was before.

Let's try to stick to one topic for now.

As far as your first point, no, that is not what the chart says at all. This is what the chart says:

I’ve taken the median wait time and the median peak wait time at each attraction over those 65 days in 2013 and 2014 and compared them to each other in this chart.

It's not saying that the wait was never above 25 minutes at Haunted Mansion just like it's not saying the peak wait at Spaceship Earth was never over 15 minutes in 2013.

 

[NYHeel]

I was at MK yesterday and it was really crowded. For a random Monday in late October that sounds insane to me. Epcot on the other hand wasn't too bad. We hopped from MK to Epcot at around 3 and Epcot was very manageable. I was expecting MK to be more crowded due to morning EMH but it was really crowded.

 

[EricInPA]

I was at MK yesterday and it was really crowded. For a random Monday in late October that sounds insane to me. Epcot on the other hand wasn't too bad. We hopped from MK to Epcot at around 3 and Epcot was very manageable. I was expecting MK to be more crowded due to morning EMH but it was really crowded.

Since Josh made an appearance on this thread, I'll quote his crowd calendar for this month regarding October 26th:

http://www.easywdw.com/calendar/october-2015-walt-disney-world-crowd-calendar/#more-15448
Magic Kingdom:

Magic Kingdom is going to be busy today. Mondays are usually the second busiest day of the week at the Magic Kingdom, second to only Saturdays, for a variety of reasons. With the Halloween Party and 7pm close on Saturday this week, today may end up being the busiest day of the week.

Epcot:

Epcot is the most recommended Park. We don’t have Extra Magic Hours, special evening entertainment, or anything else that will draw people toward Epcot specifically. Disney resort guests will be more likely to visit tomorrow or Thursday for Extra Magic Hours and off-site visitors on a weeklong vacation will be headed to the Magic Kingdom for their first full day at the world’s most popular theme park.

 

[MrInfinity]

As far as your first point, no, that is not what the chart says at all. This is what the chart says:
I’ve taken the median wait time and the median peak wait time at each attraction over those 65 days in 2013 and 2014 and compared them to each other in this chart.
It's not saying that the wait was never above 25 minutes at Haunted Mansion just like it's not saying the peak wait at Spaceship Earth was never over 15 minutes in 2013.

First off, Thank you for chatting!

So Jan-Feb. The slowest time of year. Ok so let's say the Median peak went from 25 min for Jan-Feb of 2013 to 40 min for Jan-Feb of 2014.

* What is the attendance change? (I know Disney does not release these numbers, but much of this wait is attributable to sheer attendance)
* What % of the riders went by FastPass instead and did not wait out the posted wait time at all?
* How long did riders who went by FastPass actually wait?
* Can we average these to get therefore, the actual average wait times?

I'd like to get to, of the 40,000 people who ride the HM, some by standby (waiting longer) and other by FastPass (waiting shorter) what is the combined average wait? As long as you only look at the posted wait times, it will incorrectly imply that people are having to wait more. Yes you may wait longer if you go standby, but so many people are going by FastPass now instead. The ride is not handling any more or fewer people, and there are not more people standing in line at a given time (aside from attendance growth).

What you may find is that the combined 40,000 people spent less total time in line by half of them waiting longer in standby, while the other half waited considerably less by using a FastPass.

 

[Mac30188]

I don't think anyone expected Magic Kingdom to not be crowded on Mondays. It is a relative thing in that, even for an October Monday/Wednesday, this year has been much higher than anticipated. When you are comparing a Wednesday in October to the highest level peek crowds usually reserved for holidays, it certainly raises some eyebrows and questions to why. Is it because of increased popularity? Yep. Do closed attractions hurt? Yep. What about short hours? Yep. What about party taking multiple nights of MK out each week? Yep. Still even with all these items, there is a statistical inconsistency that is raising questions among crowd forcasting services that universally underestimated the crowd levels. That X factor is what people are trying to understand so future crowd levels can be accurately predicted. There is a huge difference if this X factor is temporary or seasonal versus a perm change that adjust expectations of crowds at Disney for all future Disney trips. If every day at Disney is going to be Fat Tuesday at Mardi Gras, it probably degrades the quality of the product some.

 

[NYHeel]

Since Josh made an appearance on this thread, I'll quote his crowd calendar for this month regarding October 26th:

http://www.easywdw.com/calendar/october-2015-walt-disney-world-crowd-calendar/#more-15448
Magic Kingdom:


Epcot:

Yeah, I had read that as well. It's why I planned to switch to Epcot mid day. But it was really crowded at MK. It was just my wife and I and we were only there for the one day (on 14+ year old tickets at that) but it was still surprising seeing just about every ride (non-show) at or above 25 minutes by 11:30. We wanted to go to Haunted Mansion but bailed because it was around a 50-60 minute wait.

We're actually coming back with my whole family in late January and hoping for better results then. MK was ok but I liked Epcot a lot more just cause it wasn't so crowded. Waiting about 50 minutes (posted 35 minute wait) for Under the Sea was not a lot of fun.