We are passholders and there are a lot of rate specials through out the year and a very big factor is that we like to go on weekends and the DVC points you have to use for weekends is ridiculous. The upfront cost and if you have to borrow you have to add in the interest you are paying on that loan into your yearly calculation. Plus from what I have read, it takes about 10 years to just break even based on only staying at deluxe resorts, less if you go more then twice a year.
A good site to look at is
http://www.mousesavers.com/dvc.html
Here is a little clip:
In the following scenarios, DVC purchase beats investing the money (buy-in amount plus annual fees) and paying cash for your annual vacations:
You vacation for 10 nights every year in a Deluxe resort or DVC studio at full "rack rates." In this scenario, you'll start saving money after 9 years or less of DVC ownership. In fact, if this is your vacation style, DVC is still a good deal even if you would only stay those 10 nights in a DVC resort every other year and throw away 50% of your points (though it will take longer to break even -- about 19 years).
You stay 10 nights at a Deluxe resort each year, with a 30% discount (approx. 15 years to break even).
You vacation for 10 nights each year at a Moderate resort, paying full "rack rates" (approx. 20 years to break even).
You rent 150 points from a DVC owner each year, starting at $10 a point, for at least the next 25 years.
DVC purchase is not cost-effective in the following scenarios:
You vacation 7 nights per year at a Moderate resort, paying full "rack rates."
You vacation 10 nights per year at a Moderate resort, with a 35% discount.
You rent 150 points per year from a DVC owner, starting at $10 a point, but you only do this 2 years out of every 3.
The break-even amount in 2005 dollars seems to be around $1200. If you would normally average less than that per year for your accommodations, DVC is probably not going to save you money. If you spend more than that per year, on average, and you can afford to write a check for the buy-in amount, it's worth considering a DVC purchase.
Maybe you don't vacation at Walt Disney World every year, but when you do go, you stay in luxurious accommodations (Deluxe resorts or DVC units). DVC may still be a decent bet. You can bank your annual points, allowing you to skip a year -- and by carefully banking and borrowing points, it's even possible to skip two years occasionally. Or you can rent out excess points.
Interestingly enough, the results are pretty similar whether you pay full price to Disney for Saratoga Springs Resort (expires 2054) or buy a resale from a private party that expires in 2042. (If you can get a significant purchase incentive on Saratoga Springs, resales that expire in 2042 are slightly less attractive on a financial basis, but in most scenarios it still isn't that significant.)
One last note on this topic: the scenarios above do not take into account a major benefit to investing the money instead of spending it on a DVC membership: your money remains liquid and available in case of emergency or changes in your financial situation. If you invest the money and want to stop vacationing at Disney World, you can easily divert the money to other uses.
Best Candidates for DVC Membership
DVC membership might make sense if you meet most or all of these criteria:
You have the cash in hand to pay all of the upfront costs of membership without borrowing.
The cost of dues does not appear to present a financial hardship based on your current expectations.
You vacation at Walt Disney World frequently: ideally at least once every two years.
You plan to continue staying at Disney World far enough into the future to make the membership at least break even.
You prefer to stay in Deluxe or DVC accommodations and/or you stay a long time (10 days or more per year).
You are able to plan your vacations well in advance -- ideally 7 to 11 months out.