Why are crowds lower this summer?

[Kwdsue]

I appreciate everyone's responses - they are very interesting. We haven't been able to go to WDW with our whole family (6 of us now, since we've added a wonderful SIL!) because we just couldn't afford for all of us to go. This trip is a splurge for us - our 30th anniversary! However, we won't be spending too much on dining. We wanted to try BOG, but I didn't think I had to do it at 180 days since we're going in Sep. (I learned my lesson!) and now I'm stuck trying every couple days to see if there's been a cancellation. The last trip we made, we felt like the food quality didn't warrant the prices, so we eat breakfast before we leave (we are DVC members so have a full kitchen), leave the parks at lunch and eat back at the condo, and usually just eat at the parks at night. However, this year, the combination of not getting ADRs we wanted, and not wanting to pay $30 plus a person for a lot of the restaurants, has led me to consider other options. We may try some of the new quick service places at Disney Springs, or just eat off-property.

I know there's been a lot of discussion on making ADRs at 180 days out. I have to admit, I'm not a fan. It's impossible to know what park you're going to that far in advance when you're going in Sep. There's no way of knowing that far in advance what parks will have nightly entertainment (except for Illuminations), when MNSSHP will close the MK, etc. I still don't know if the Star Wars fireworks will be showing on any day, since it's not on the schedule yet. We have park hoppers, so we can make adjustments, but I can't really commit to an ADR, not knowing if we'll be in that park or not. A CM told me many people book a restaurant all the days of their trip and then cancel when they know which day they'll use it. That doesn't seem right either, but I don't know what the answer is.

All that being, said, I'm really looking forward to this trip, and have loved planning it! It's just different that years ago, when my kids were little and we were able to go every year.

 

[Jennasis]

We have a trip in Sept to finish out our AP and then Disney is out for 2017 and 2018. We own DVC and will use our points at Vero and to stay at Saratoga while we spend our money on SeaWorld and universal. Too much under construction at WDW now. Value greatly diminished.

 

[jsbowl16]

We can only go in the summer because my wife is a teacher but whatever the reason for lower crowds in the summer, I hope it continues because it will make it better for us. I don't have an issue with paying a little bit more if it means the crowds will be thinner in the summer.

Some people were speculating that Disney is trying to find the point where they can raise their prices, thin out the crowds and still make the same amount of money. I think that was supposed to be the point of seasonal pricing and they might just be getting to the point where they want to be.

 

[GillianP1301]

I think it's probably a lot of things contributing. It will be interesting to see attendance numbers, when they get released to see what the impact really is. I'm not expecting revenue to suffer though because I'm sure some of this is a deliberate increase in prices to maintain revenue growth targets while flat lining and/or decrease attendance. So that could be part of it (and my 2 cents is this is likely the largest contributor), then there is the global economic implications... the Canadian dollar is sucking huge at the moment, Brexit implications, South American economic woes, plus the Olympic affect. Not to mention that the view of the US from outside the US is of a country that is spiraling out of control, so it becomes a less desirable tourist destination in general. It also appears, from this thread, that locals and their desire to continue to subscribe to APs with the increases is reaching a breaking point. So really, it is a perfect storm of crapola both economic and other that is likely contributing to lower crowds.

 

[ellie05]

For us is the lack of new rides or entertainment is why we will be giving Disney a break. We are going in October and next spring because we have AP but if we didn't I would have cancel our October trip. We added US to our October because we want to see something new. We always take other vacations through the year that are not Disney and I rather go see new things that keep repeating the same thing over and over again. After our spring trip we will probably give Disney a long break.

 

[Polydweller]

It's not just Disney it's all of Orlando from reports on Orlando media. And it's not ticket prices, people were stil going with the increases. It is economic factors and to understand it one had to look back to economic conditions 6-10 months ago. That's when people start purchasing their vacations.

At that time, the strong US dollar had clobbered foreign currencies making it less likely people would travel to Disney from many locations. In Canada, for instance, the exchange rate was about $1.38 for 1 US dollar. We could still afford it but it was touch and go if we would want to afford. The exchange rate affected many countries. Then add to that the turmoil in South America. As well, there was economic uncertainty in the US with analysts wondering if we were on the precipice of another recession. That makes many people delay their vacations.

Disney noted these factors in their financial calls and and anticipated a weaker summer tourist season. And here we are 6-10 months later and it's happened.

 

[China Expat]

Former DL pass holder and cast member (in college). We went to Universal Studios Hollywood a few days ago to see Harry Potter Land. $105 to enter,and our experience with the quality of the park and attractions, cast members, cleanliness, HP Land, food and shows was amazing. Every single cast member was enthusiastic and smiling all day, and they even made a chain on the main street waving good bye to us at 10 pm. As a local, I don't find the DL experience as valuable for the admission price any longer.

 

[SillySallySews]

Our usual summer trip got scratched this year due to my husband's work schedule. We're getting our Disney fix with a short trip in September and another over NYE instead. I know a lot of people in various parts of the country whose schools are changing their calendar and their kids are getting a much shorter summer break this year. For some they will just see the 2016-2017 school year end sooner than normal, others are switching to a schedule that gives the kids more time off over Fall instead. I'm sad we're missing lower summer crowds, but not sad to be missing the extreme heat and humidity people have also been talking about!

 

[Skip3key]

I think the crowds are starting to even out throughout the year. It seems like there is really no slow season anymore... so maybe its just a redistribution as summer folks finally figured out the secrets we have known for years- go in the fall! We have been in November last year, and October the 2 years before that, and every year it is busier and busier in the "slow months". Trying September this year...we shall see....

 

[DarkPaw]

I think it's money. everything costs more, so less people are going.... and I think that is exactly what Disney wanted.

Everyone think that Disney wants more people to go, but actually, they may have hit a spot where they had too many people going.

I think they want less people that are spending more... that's how they'll make even more profit.

 

[Music City Mama]

I think it's a combination of so many things:

1. The Olympics being held in S. America, therefore, less S. American tourists this summer (not to mention political unrest there).
2. Global economy is currently not that great.
3. Higher prices. For example, I don't know why I'd want to buy an annual pass (non-FL resident) anymore even if the PhotoPass downloads are automatically included. For one, we don't buy Memory Maker every trip (don't want/need it every trip), and two, if we only need 1 Memory Maker entitlement for my whole family, it really aggravates me that all 4 of us are paying for it now with the much higher AP cost (our last AP purchase was before the new prices).
4. See the quote below:

Hmmm. I'm surprised no one thinks that Disney's desire and (from what I saw myself) ability to increase crowds during the rest of the year would naturally draw down the crowds in what is a very hot time of year in Orlando.

I also think this is a big reason! I have a feeling that the fall will see much bigger crowds (as has been the trend for quite a while). While I love the summer, some people just can't deal with the heat/humidity, and with more schools getting fall breaks, the cooler weather, the draw of F&W, free dining, I can totally see where less people are now making summer plans for WDW and choosing other times of the year: spring break, fall break, Thanksgiving, Christmas break, other longer weekends during other times of the year.

For the first time in a long time, we won't be going to WDW next summer and when we go in 2018, we won't purchase APs, but regular/base tickets. I will get my WDW fix by chaperoning on a school trip next spring break, but it will be sad that my DH and my other child will miss out next year. Instead of cutting 2-3 days into our trip with Universal (like we do every couple of years), we're going to devote all of our time to Universal, Sea World and some other Orlando attractions.

 

[A Mickeyfan]

Yet when you speak to people who have gone to Universal Studio's/IOA, they say the lines are ridiculously long, parks are super crowded???? So just maybe Disney itself is playing a role in it by steeply raising prices this year????? Universal's guests deal with the same economic issues, right?

 

[ejdmomma]

I think it's many factors. I know for our family, it's the increased cost for a single or two day ticket. My inlaws have a beach house that we visit once or twice a year. We used to drive over for a day or two, stay on property and then head back to the beach. With the tiered pricing this summer, we skipped Disney and never left the beach. It was tempting - the short, frequent visits fit our family but I think we will wait a year or two and go for a full week instead. So basically we will skip 3 short visits for one longer visit. Makes me sad

 

[Mambo Junkie]

We are going back in September but DS and family were hoping to fly in for 3 days. However, it would cost them around 3000.00 for 3 days and that's way too much. Between the dining and the room plus 2 2 day hoppers for 2 adults and 2 children under 6 was going to be 1068.00. Outrageous.

 

[FlipHipster]

The scheduling really pushed us over the limit, it just doesn't seem worth the effort anymore. We ended up spending the last half of our fall 2014 trip at Universal and had a blast. Last year we decided to skip Disney altogether, do other things and re-evaluate. This year I start planning a fall trip and the kids just want more dark side. DW said she just wants to go to Uni, stay onsite and relax, no rushing. I kept pushing for a few Disney days and she just flat out told me she doesn't want to go to Disney at all this year, just too much hassle and not as much fun as it used to be. I priced out 3 days of Disney tickets, no hoppers, and it was actually more than our Universal AP's. Jeez. I started thinking about what we would actually do with those 3 days and realized I she was completely right.

Now after spending a few days on the Disboards catching up, I am totally down with just staying at the dark side the whole trip and relaxing. It reminds me of how our Disney trips used to be. I Booked HRH, bought AP's, done. No ride appointments, no ADR's, no itinerary in my pocket. Just show up and have fun. I doubt we will be back at Disney before SWL opens, maybe, but it will most likely be 1-2 day side trips to MK/EP vs. our old 8-10 day trips never leaving property. Kinda sad about it but life goes on and USO is doing a good job of scratching the itch right now.

 

[Klayfish]

I know it's not scientific at all, but my wife and I made an interesting observation in our trip we just made. We always like to look at the globe when we got off SE to see where people say they are from. Like I said, it's not scientific and by no stretch is it 100% accurate (our kids ride SE in their own car and more than once they have said we live in the Atlantic Ocean) but I do think it shows general trends. We rode SE at least 5 or 6 times between June 17th and July 3rd, it's one of my favorites. We were surprised at what the globe showed. There was a huge concentration of people from Florida with a trickle into south GA and Atlanta, and just as big of a concentration in the mid-Atlantic (PA, NJ, DE, MD). The rest of the US (and the world) was fairly sparsely lit up. In our experience, Florida and the PA area have always been the two highest concentrations listed, but what was notably different was the lack of dots in other places.

One thing I'd be curious about is are the hotels showing a similar decline in crowds? We never stay on property, so we have nothing to compare. But I do read how much it costs to stay on property, even at a "value" resort...which is part of why we don't do it. We can get a house for under $700/week and pack our own food. I wonder if more people will start doing this to save money for a WDW trip.

 

[Robertfam08]

Hmmm. I'm surprised no one thinks that Disney's desire and (from what I saw myself) ability to increase crowds during the rest of the year would naturally draw down the crowds in what is a very hot time of year in Orlando.

This was my first thought. I don't know anyone going in the summer this year, but I know several families going in the fall. Boo. Haha. The secret is out. I have a feeling we'll be seeing the exact opposite threads starting in September. "Holy crowds!!"

 

[im4pacers1]

Hmmm. I'm surprised no one thinks that Disney's desire and (from what I saw myself) ability to increase crowds during the rest of the year would naturally draw down the crowds in what is a very hot time of year in Orlando.

This is what I'm afraid of. We are going in October, and I'm scared that people aren't there now, because they'll be there later in the year when it's cooler.

 

[Tomh]

I don't think that the spreading out of the crowds is a big factor. I believe that the vast majority of people who visit in the summer do so because they have children in school, and visiting at other times just isn't feasible for them.

I believe there are a few things going on here at the same time:

1) I think that the fear of Zika virus as well as the news of the alligator attack and other environmental concerns play a small role.
2) Summer Olympics I am sure draw some people that might otherwise visit Disney World. Again, I think this is a small part of it.
3) Pricing. Prices are high, very high, and they have increased quickly in recent history. This is a big factor I think.
4) Economy. The world economy is on shaky ground. Brazil is crashing and burning. UK is having it's own issues. Lots of foreign travelers are affected.
5) Value. Lots of things are closed. ROL sank, FEA sort of works, when it is in the mood. Universal is opening up new stuff left and right, and has had a string of wins lately. I am sure this is drawing guests away from Disney.

Any one of these things on their own would probably not be a significant issue, but put them all together at the same time, and Disney has the perfect Pooh storm. I suspect that they may have to get cozy with the discounts they were very openly trying to get away from if they want to see attendance numbers climb again.

As for my family, we are still visiting this year, but we have made some changes. In previous years, we have always stayed on site, and bought the dining plan, or got it for "free" with our package. This year, we have rented a house off site, and will be paying for dining out of pocket. We will be eating breakfast at the house most days, and bringing sandwiches with us for lunch many days. Not only is Disney not getting out money for lodging, they will also be losing a significant chunk of our dining purchases. This will save us a good deal of money, and make it possible for us to take a trip that would have been prohibitively expensive for us this year if we had stayed on site and purchased the dining plan.

I am quite sure my family is not the only one making similar decisions.

 

[jkh36619]

I never go in summer. Just too stinking hot. Ill be there this Christmas tho, as always and love it. Hope I have decreased crowds also!